bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Well, a positive outlook for a change. This Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist was ON THE MONEY with his projections for China back on Feb 1st. And his outlook for us is very positive as well. Judging from his projections, I’d put him on par with Steamer when it comes to accuracy:

 

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?_amp=true

 

https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-prediction-nobel-laureate-michael-levitt-says-spread-slowing-emphasizes-2944720?amp=1

 

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

 

Basically false.  On Friday NJ became the 5th state to issue a lockdown. It's only been a couple days and most states haven't done anything.  Michigan just issued a lockdown today telling everyone to stay home.

 

Social distancing messaging started a week and half ago.  Heck even Trump started tweeting it the morning of March 14th. That's nine days ago. I think this week will tell a lot of how effective our response has been.  Doesn't look good so far.  

Edited by bluefrogguy
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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

Social distancing messaging started a week and half ago.  Heck even Trump started tweeting it the morning of March 14th. That's nine days ago. I think this week will tell a lot of how effective our response has been.  Doesn't look good so far.  

The messaging and the hearing and following the message are two different things.  And even now in some parts of the country like say Texas where they are doing next to nothing. 

Also see break, spring.  Only today (Monday) are most beaches in Florida closing because apparently it was far more important to sell booze to the college kids and rake in those last few dollars from those sales this weekend than end their partying early.  And those kids are the perfect transmitters for the virus as they will for the most part show little signs of being sick as they spread the virus all over the country now starting up brand new mini-clusters that will grow bigger all over the place now.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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24 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

Yeah I agree, although social distancing messaging started 10 days ago and mass public closings started about a week ago, so we should start to see how well we are doing this week as that is in the 5-9 day time frame. Early returns are not so promising though, tbh. 

Are we in the same place? Toronto?  Either way, I think you’d have to add some time to that 5-9 days.  Im by no means an expert.  But from what I understand by what I’ve read,  A few days for the backlog of tests,  the 5 to 9 for symptoms to appear (as I understand), a couple of days give or take to decide that these symptoms are enough to get a test, a couple days to get approved for a test, and whatever amount of days it takes for test results to come back.   Combine that fact that the symptoms list seems to have expanded and more tests available, along with the exponential growth spread days before “panic Thursday”.  IF there are positive results from social distancing (assuming people are actually doing it, I have no idea) we won’t see them, or be able to link them to a decrease in positive cases for quite a bit more time.  Hopefully people won’t lose their minds before that.  

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

 

Basically false.  On Friday NJ became the 5th state to issue a lockdown. It's only been a couple days and most states haven't done anything.  Michigan just issued a lockdown today telling everyone to stay home.

If he’s from where I am (Ontario), we started serious lockdowns just before st.patricks day.

Edited by Cesare13

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Just now, The Big Bat Theory said:

The messaging and the hearing and following the message are two different things.  And even now in some parts of the country like say Texas they are doing nothing.  Also ses break, spring.  Only today (Monday) are most beaches in Florida closing because apparently it was far more important to sell booze to the college kids and rake in those last few dollars from those sales this weekend then end their partying early.

 

Yeah I agree we *probably* haven't done a good job.  But we are going to see what kind of job we have done since the messaging started this week.  Trump's 15 day trial ends the 29th and then he is going to "reevaluate it". 

 

538 reported on a poll of ID experts taken on March16-17 after the social distancing messaging started where they thought we'd be on March 29th. The median was 20,000 cases.  with a range of 10K to 75K. We passed the median guess within a week. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/

 

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1 minute ago, bluefrogguy said:

Yeah I agree we *probably* haven't done a good job.  But we are going to see what kind of job we have done since the messaging started this week.  Trump's 15 day trial ends the 29th and then he is going to "reevaluate it".

Trump's "trial" and a real scientific trial are two different things entirely.

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12 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

Social distancing messaging started a week and half ago.  Heck even Trump started tweeting it the morning of March 14th. That's nine days ago. I think this week will tell a lot of how effective our response has been.  Doesn't look good so far.  

According to the White House they consider today as Day 8.  Next Monday will be day 15. Day 15 is the day Trump believes we’ll be able to gauge whether social distancing is working. However it appears he’s way more optimistic than most of the experts. 
- on a side note people in Nigeria are overdosing off of the chloroquine medicine. 

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Just now, The Big Bat Theory said:

Trump's "trial" and a real scientific trial are two different things entirely.

 

No doubt. I'm just saying that we are going to start to see the returns this week. and it doesn't look good, especially in NYC.  I think other places might show better results.  

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3 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

on a side note people in Nigeria are overdosing off of the chloroquine medicine. 

 

source

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10 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The messaging and the hearing and following the message are two different things.  And even now in some parts of the country like say Texas where they are doing next to nothing. 

Also see break, spring.  Only today (Monday) are most beaches in Florida closing because apparently it was far more important to sell booze to the college kids and rake in those last few dollars from those sales this weekend than end their partying early.  And those kids are the perfect transmitters for the virus as they will for the most part show little signs of being sick as they spread the virus all over the country now starting up brand new mini-clusters that will grow bigger all over the place now.

Again with the fake news. 
Governor Abbott closes bars, restaurants, and schools.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/19/texas-restaurants-bars-closed-greg-abbott/
 

Dallas County orders shelter-in-place.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/22/dallas-county-coronavirus-prompts-officials-issue-shelter-place-order/
 

I’m not sure anyone would constitute this as “next to nothing.” It’s also important to note that the needs of each state are different. Population density in the northeast is much different than that of Texas, or many states out west. There is really no need for entire state lockdowns in many states. Crowded cities/counties are being handled, as they should, based on their specific needs. 

So if we could stop with the false narratives and stick with facts, that would be great.

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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

source

Just saw live on the news. CNN I believe. 

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13 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Just saw live on the news. CNN I believe. 

It’s because there are people over there self-medicating. It’s like if the news announced Tylenol could help prevent the virus, you’d have idiots popping open their pill bottles guzzling down pills and then showing up at the ER with liver damage.

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1 hour ago, Sonny_D said:

Well, a positive outlook for a change. This Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist was ON THE MONEY with his projections for China back on Feb 1st. And his outlook for us is very positive as well. Judging from his projections, I’d put him on par with Steamer when it comes to accuracy:

 

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?_amp=true

 

https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-prediction-nobel-laureate-michael-levitt-says-spread-slowing-emphasizes-2944720?amp=1

 

 

I will say this again.. baseball in May.

I am not a doctor, but, i just feel confident that we will have this under control within the next little while and baseball in May is not a far fetched idea.

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3 minutes ago, meh2 said:

It’s because there are people over there self-medicating. It’s like if the news announced Tylenol could help prevent the virus, you’d have idiots popping open their pill bottles guzzling down pills and then showing up at the ER with liver damage.

When i first read this yesterday.. my initial reaction was f---.. the hope of this drug being a positive is gone.. then i read they are over dosing themselves and not via prescriptions from physicians. 

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2 minutes ago, jonninho said:

I am not a doctor, but, i just feel confident that we will have this under control within the next little while and baseball in May is not a far fetched idea.

 

I think it's pretty far-fetched.  Hong Kong seemed to have things under control, then decided to relax restrictions, and now cases are spiking again:

image.thumb.png.1ba20a3379d5dd10198187df26e7a238.png

(On this chart, which is measuring the time it takes for the number of cases to double, up is good, down is bad.)

For a more detailed analysis:

Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down

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15 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I think it's pretty far-fetched.  Hong Kong seemed to have things under control, then decided to relax restrictions, and now cases are spiking again:

image.thumb.png.1ba20a3379d5dd10198187df26e7a238.png

(On this chart, which is measuring the time it takes for the number of cases to double, up is good, down is bad.)

For a more detailed analysis:

Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down

I do not disagree that we as a people can not go from having all these measures in place one day.. to being back to complete normalcy the following morning..

however, what is most noteworthy in relation to Hong Kongs situation is this new spike in cases are primarily from people over seas.. either via schooling or business. If they had of gotten their citizens back and/or closed borders much sooner and for a lengthier period of time, this spike may have been possible to avoid.

The same applies to us in N.America.. continue with the travel restrictions prohibiting any international flights either in or out and i dont see us having a spike in cases again once we have this under control.. that combined with the potentially good news we hope to uncover in the next week or two regarding the trials in NYC using HCQ

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58 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The messaging and the hearing and following the message are two different things.  And even now in some parts of the country like say Texas where they are doing next to nothing. 

Also see break, spring.  Only today (Monday) are most beaches in Florida closing because apparently it was far more important to sell booze to the college kids and rake in those last few dollars from those sales this weekend than end their partying early.  And those kids are the perfect transmitters for the virus as they will for the most part show little signs of being sick as they spread the virus all over the country now starting up brand new mini-clusters that will grow bigger all over the place now.

 

The Florida Beaches were bad.  But honestly the rest of the country as a whole I feel has taken this very seriously.  Americans had the benefit of seeing what was happening in Italy before it happened here.

 

Like said earlier in here this next week is critical data to project this going forward.  I for one am very curious as to how much the deaths go up today compared to yesterday.  But there are a lot of positive things happening in America right now to combat covid-19.

 

Tomorrow there are clinical trials starting for Chloroquine (originally used to treat malaria) & Hydroxychloroquine (a less toxic deriviatie of chloroquine).  Both are hopeful to help alleviate symptoms making less people need to be hospitalized (depending on how effective they are).  Also I've heard experts saying that there is hope Hydroxychloroquine can make covid-19 less efficient at transmission (not to be confused with a cure or vaccine).

 

GM, Haines, and other big companies are offering to start manufacturing needed PPE (personal protective equipment) for hospitals.  States are converting hotels that obviously aren't getting much business into temporary hospitals for covid-19 patients.  Many states are doing very well with the drive thru testing.  

 

I don't want to say that the worst part is behind us just yet but I think we are doing a lot better than the fear mongering mainstream media is making it sound like.

 

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34 minutes ago, meh2 said:

It’s because there are people over there self-medicating. It’s like if the news announced Tylenol could help prevent the virus, you’d have idiots popping open their pill bottles guzzling down pills and then showing up at the ER with liver damage.

And you don't think people over here are not self-medicating?  It is totally irresponsible for someone to say that so and so drug seems to work with no scientific evidence to back it up then tons of ignorant people hear this and run off scoring this and that "miracle med" that isn't and probably doing major damage to themselves in the process.  Nigeria just has more access to anti-malaria drugs because malaria is a major problem there.  But believe me their are "pushers" out there right now in this country selling this stuff to the totally naive among us.  Or other stuff they pass on saying it is this stuff as well.

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1 minute ago, FouLLine said:

I don't want to say that the worst part is behind us just yet but I think we are doing a lot better than the fear mongering mainstream media is making it sound like.

Mainstream media are mainstream because they are rational and reporting the facts unlike all these conspiracy sites on the internet.  And no people were very VERY late reacting to this and clusters will be breaking out anew during the next month plus because of this.  All it takes in a tiny percent of the population to think this is nothing but a hoax or it doesn't effect me cause I'm young and I want to par-tee or that it is all over because two weeks are up that someone just made up as a date or just basically clueless period to keep this stuff going.  We have no draconian military checkpoints and such to do a real lock down so the disease will keep on getting new life from these idiots.

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And you don't think people over here are not self-medicating?  It is totally irresponsible for someone to say that so and so drug seems to work with no scientific evidence to back it up then tons of ignorant people hear this and run off scoring this and that "miracle med" that isn't and probably doing major damage to themselves in the process.  Nigeria just has more access to anti-malaria drugs because malaria is a major problem there.  But believe me their are "pushers" out there right now in this country selling this stuff to the totally naive among us.  Or other stuff they pass on saying it is this stuff as well.

 

Doctors should be explaining the risks.  Is this stuff over the counter in Nigeria? 

 

Also Hydroxychloroquine is less toxic than chloroquine.  Clinical trials start in NY tomorrow so we will soon start getting some real data.

 

Keep in mind desperate times call for desperate measures.  This is a clinical trial that was not FDA approved to streamline it in a clear time of crisis. 

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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Mainstream media are mainstream because they are rational and reporting the facts unlike all these conspiracy sites on the internet.  And no people were very VERY late reacting to this and clusters will be breaking out anew during the next month plus because of this.  All it takes in a tiny percent of the population to think this is nothing but a hoax or it doesn't effect me cause I'm young and I want to par-tee or that it is all over because two weeks are up that someone just made up as a date or just basically clueless period to keep this stuff going.  We have no draconian military checkpoints and such to do a real lock down so the disease will keep on getting new life from these idiots.

 

I will say the mainstream media never called it a hoax but they keep claiming we are right behind Italy and that's just fear mongering.  Which maybe it is helping people take it even more serious or make people think twice about breaking the shelter in place. 

 

Now Trump and The GOP called it a hoax for nearly 2 months.  It's almost poetic justice when a bunch of the people at CPAC were making fun of the virus calling it a hoax ended up getting it.

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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

All it takes in a tiny percent of the population to think this is nothing but a hoax or it doesn't effect me cause I'm young and I want to par-tee or that it is all over because two weeks are up that someone just made up as a date or just basically clueless period to keep this stuff going.

 

Or maybe just a single asymptomatic US Senator who gets tested and, while waiting for the results, decides to go to the museum, work out at the Senate gym, and swim in the pool with other Senators before testing positive.

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