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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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Just now, UberRebel said:

Even now you’re seeing the entities that modeled exorbitant death numbers walking their predictions back.

 

Yes, after the measures were taken.  Why are you talking about this like it's a gotcha?

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20 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

yes by people like Tony and a handful of others here who consistently laugh at me.  this is not even as bad as the flu.


Im starting to think your getting into trolling territory every time you mention it’s not as bad as the flu.  Surely you don’t think that 99% of scientists and public health official and government workers are wrong/brainwashed by the media and you are correct, right?  Even Donald trump himself isn’t saying this (and I don’t care if he has/hasn’t, just saying that this kind of rhetoric isn’t even politicized).  As someone whose ALREADY has someone close to me impacted by this virus, and on behalf of everyone that has and will be in the future, just stop.  Please.  

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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Yes, after the measures were taken.  Why are you talking about this like it's a gotcha?


anyone with common sense would have known that measures were always going to be taken. Did anyone seriously believe absolutely nothing would be done by governments once even a few hundred people died?

 

The model numbers being promulgated should have never been primarily the worst-case scenarios but rather the realistic scenarios based on predictable assumptions about measures such as social distancing.

 

But since the numbers being continually propped up were and continue to be the absolute worst case scenarios, you now have people hoarding food and hydroxychloroquine. Lack of nuance by the media and many of the experts are to blame for this. 

 

Can you argue that the high death numbers modeled scared people into doing the right things such a social distancing? Maybe, but I call that fear-mongering.

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1 minute ago, UberRebel said:

anyone with common sense would have known that measures were always going to be taken. Did anyone seriously believe absolutely nothing would be done by governments once even a few hundred people died?

 

The problem is that by the time a few hundred are dead, death sentences have already been written for thousands.  That's just how the math of the spread works when there's such a long delay from infection to onset of symptoms, combined with the fact that it's been proven to be much more infectious than the seasonal flu. 

 

1 minute ago, UberRebel said:

The model numbers being promulgated should have never been primarily the worst-case scenarios but rather the realistic scenarios based on predictable assumptions about measures such as social distancing.

 

The modelers were asked for numbers based on a set of assumptions.  One of those assumptions was "do nothing", because that's the default setting of pretty much all of humanity.  All of the coverage I read noted that these were worst-case numbers.  It's not the job of scientists to guess what measures governments will take and when -- they offer their projections, and the policymakers decide what to do.  I fail to understand what's so controversial about this.

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37 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

HCQ working like a charm.  new 80 patient study in France.  more "anecdotal evidence" i guess 😁

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf

"We need an effective treatment to cure COVID-19 patients and to decrease the virus carriage duration. In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin we noted a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 yearold patient still in intensive care unit. A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. Virus cultures from patient respiratory samples were negative in 97.5% patients at Day5. This allowed patients to rapidly de discharge from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days. We believe other teams should urgently evaluate this cost-effective therapeutic strategy, to both avoid the spread of the disease and treat patients as soon as possible before severe respiratory irreversible complications take hold."

With you on this.. from day 1, brother!

We need to continue with these trials and get as many people as possible this medicine. I swear the governor of NYC Cuomo ordered a **** load of these medicines to start being used on patients? I am assuming you live in NY based on your picture (i shouldnt assume, i am a yankees fan and live in toronto).. can you update us with any local reports about how these trials are going?

keep up the positivity, man! we are going to beat this much sooner than so many people think..

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26 minutes ago, UberRebel said:


the world isn’t ending but the media and many people in this thread who buy into their narratives have engaged in fear-mongering and fixation on worst-case scenarios that are nowhere near going to happen (read: anyone who has claimed that “millions will die” in the U.S. without also qualifying the conditions that would supposedly happen). Those worst case scenarios were always based on the assumption that no measures would be taken and obviously measures have been taken by almost everyone.

 

Even now you’re seeing the entities that modeled exorbitant death numbers walking their predictions back.

 

We’re somewhere between “world is ending” and “not a big deal” but the prevailing narrative across the world has been closer to “world is ending” and demonizing the people who choose to think critically about the numbers and dare to question the extreme actions being taken

Also with you on this... anyone who questions the concept of the world is ending is pretty much laughed at and dismissed..

we re going to beat this, brother!

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7 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I’ve seen a few more personal stories that fit under the Corona Discussion umbrella (which is different than that pee umbrella, FYI). But considering we’re all affected in some way, all at least partially isolated, I thought it might be therapeutic to “talk” about what you’re dealing with, and to hear other stories. 
I’m a middle school teacher. It’s in a lower income area, so I’m trying my best to keep in contact with parents/students via email. About half have replied. Less than that are doing some of the tasks I’m giving them to work on. I’m extremely happy some are working, but it’s challenging trying to reach them. I’ve been going weekly to our school, where we package and hand out a week’s worth of breakfast and lunch for our families. Both weeks we packaged and handed out over 1200 meals. 
I’m also a parent of 4, all school age. One HS, one MS, and two elementary students. That of course is presenting its own challenges. The older two are having a harder time with the quarantine because they actually had a social life. The little ones are doing pretty well. That said, the older ones are in constant contact with their teachers and need little from me. The younger two need to be kept focused, and it feels I’m on 13 different websites getting what we need. It’s exhausting for me as a teacher, so I can only imagine how some others may feel. 
Other than that, I know I’m extremely lucky in that both my wife and I are fine as far as work and being paid. She’s able to work from home. I also know we’re lucky in that we have each other. A house of 6 (and a puppy to walk) allows for a lot of time and togetherness. There are others who may be alone, have an empty home, and struggling a lot more.

Thanks for listening, lol. Anyone else want to share their story? 

 

Hats off man.  I was just a sub in mainly low income schools in LA.  I THOUGHT I knew how rough it was, but those of us from a middle class background really can't grasp it until we experience it.  

The kids were mostly fine and some were downright inspiring.  I don't want to make it sound like I was having guns pulled on me or anything.  But you guys are fighting such an uphill battle with the parents and negative cultural influences.  A lot of times, a good teacher is the only person in their lives who gives a crap about them and their only source of any kind of positivity. That's not hyperbole. Then, teachers are the first ones we blame for bad outcomes.  Anyway, nice work.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

yes by people like Tony and a handful of others here who consistently laugh at me.  this is not even as bad as the flu.

 

[...]  You're parroting something that is literally dangerous.  If enough people say stuff like this, you may actually convince people to go out and socialize and could actually lead to their death or the deaths of others.  Please stop it.

One fun flu fact:  The flu typically kills around 250 people per month in Italy.  It's killed 600-900 per DAY there lately, despite their entire economy being stopped to go into a nationwide lockdown. 

[...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed personal attacks. Please keep arguments civil and focused on the topic, not your opinion of others.
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17 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

[...]  You're parroting something that is literally dangerous.  If enough people say stuff like this, you may actually convince people to go out and socialize and could actually lead to their death or the deaths of others.  Please stop it.

One fun flu fact:  The flu typically kills around 250 people per month in Italy.  It's killed 600-900 per DAY there lately, despite their entire economy being stopped to go into a nationwide lockdown. 

[...]

I dont believe his opinion is that everybody should get up, go outside, and kiss each other. I think his intentions stem from the lack attention being paid to potential treatments for COVID-19. I am actually with him on this. The trials that are taking place give us as a people optimism for both our health and a return to normalcy. I can only hope for everybody here, their friends and families that these trials continue and that they show more promise than they already have.. i do think we are onto something here..

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58 minutes ago, UberRebel said:


the world isn’t ending but the media and many people in this thread who buy into their narratives have engaged in fear-mongering and fixation on worst-case scenarios that are nowhere near going to happen (read: anyone who has claimed that “millions will die” in the U.S. without also qualifying the conditions that would supposedly happen). Those worst case scenarios were always based on the assumption that no measures would be taken and obviously measures have been taken by almost everyone.

 

Even now you’re seeing the entities that modeled exorbitant death numbers walking their predictions back.

 

We’re somewhere between “world is ending” and “not a big deal” but the prevailing narrative across the world has been closer to “world is ending” and demonizing the people who choose to think critically about the numbers and dare to question the extreme actions being taken

 

There are a range of possible outcomes, including the worst case.  That's how people who understand probability (at least a little) think. That's how good FBB players think, for example. 

 

Nobody said we are guaranteed to lose millions of people, that was always a worst case.  They hoped that with social distancing, we could save many thousands which... is exactly what has happened so far, in a bunch of countries. Your group has advocated against the very thing that is limiting the damage. Warping the reality of what other people said, and what actually happened: not critical thought.  It's kind of amazing that you're still able to distort reality to fit your narrative after they've drifted so far apart.

 

It's not the end of the world.  A nuclear bomb going of in Boise wouldn't be the end of the world. If nothing else happened, it wouldn't even have that much impact in the grand scheme. It would still be very bad.  

 

Hearing about a treatment that might have worked on a few people and just magically knowing it's the solution, and throwing out the scientific method, is hardly critical thought.  WHY do you know? That's critical thought.  IF we get bailed out of this because some unorthodox treatment is discovered before a vaccine, that's great. But saying you just "knew" that was going to happen because it's what you wanted is what's known as magical thinking. 

Reflexive anti-intellectualism isn't critical thought.  It's an emotionally driven resentment of people who are smarter and more successful than you are, and the fact that some stuff is beyond your understanding. "People laugh at me!"

 

An example of critical thinking might be realizing that only people with a very narrow political perspective agree with you about some external fact about the world that is apolitical. All the geniuses on Wall Street and in science and medicine, who have a wide range of political and world views, who have skin in the game and deal with objective fact, think you're wrong.  Nobody who is very smart agrees.  And realizing you might be in something like a cult.   

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47 minutes ago, jonninho said:

I dont believe his opinion is that everybody should get up, go outside, and kiss each other. I think his intentions stem from the lack attention being paid to potential treatments for COVID-19. I am actually with him on this. The trials that are taking place give us as a people optimism for both our health and a return to normalcy. I can only hope for everybody here, their friends and families that these trials continue and that they show more promise than they already have.. i do think we are onto something here..

 

He said “this is not even bad as flu”.  That is a totally irresponsible thing to say.

of course I’m I optimistic they will find a vaccine.  Evidence suggests this is quite likely. Until then, you me and everyone has to publicly call out anyone who dares say this is similar (or gasp) less bad than flu.  

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8 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

He said “this is not even bad as flu”.  That is a totally irresponsible thing to say.

of course I’m I optimistic they will find a vaccine.  Evidence suggests this is quite likely. Until then, you me and everyone has to publicly call out anyone who dares say this is similar (or gasp) less bad than flu.  


 This is a hoax. 

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4 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

If you have mild symptoms, you are supposed to self-quarantine and not waste a test (assume you have it ) and recover on your own ( Vitamin C, rest, etc... ). Save the tests for the needy

Agreed but not the point I was trying to make.

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4 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:


Im starting to think your getting into trolling territory every time you mention it’s not as bad as the flu.  Surely you don’t think that 99% of scientists and public health official and government workers are wrong/brainwashed by the media and you are correct, right?  Even Donald trump himself isn’t saying this (and I don’t care if he has/hasn’t, just saying that this kind of rhetoric isn’t even politicized).  As someone whose ALREADY has someone close to me impacted by this virus, and on behalf of everyone that has and will be in the future, just stop.  Please.  

Dont even tell me you think the earth is round. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

 

There are a range of possible outcomes, including the worst case.  That's how people who understand probability (at least a little) think. That's how good FBB players think, for example. 

 

There are indeed a range of possible outcomes. Good FBB players focus on the most likely outcomes and don't get overly worked up about the least likely ones. I'm saying the media and others have been focusing on the least likely outcome, which is the worst case scenario where no mitigation is taken by any one. I understand acknowledging it initially is needed to frame the scope of concern, but I think reasonable people would agree it's being beaten to death

 

1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

Nobody said we are guaranteed to lose millions of people, that was always a worst case.  They hoped that with social distancing, we could save many thousands which... is exactly what has happened so far, in a bunch of countries. 

 

I never said anyone guaranteed we'd lose millions of people. I said people that continue to harp on the possibility of losing millions of people and using that to scare people into whatever reaction they want to arouse haven't been particularly helpful to the general response to the situation

 

1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

Your group has advocated against the very thing that is limiting the damage. Warping the reality of what other people said, and what actually happened: not critical thought.  It's kind of amazing that you're still able to distort reality to fit your narrative after they've drifted so far apart.

 

If you're referring to advocating against social distancing, I'm not sure how you concluded that was my stance - I'm all for it. My main thesis is that the fear-mongering and emphasis on the worst-case outcome hasn't been helpful

 

1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

Hearing about a treatment that might have worked on a few people and just magically knowing it's the solution, and throwing out the scientific method, is hardly critical thought.  WHY do you know? That's critical thought.  IF we get bailed out of this because some unorthodox treatment is discovered before a vaccine, that's great. But saying you just "knew" that was going to happen because it's what you wanted is what's known as magical thinking.

 

There you go again assigning arguments to me that I never made. Seriously, where did I ever even discuss Hydroxychloroquine? Instead of addressing my post, you're taking your frustrations on the "it's just the flu" folks out on me. That's not the side I'm taking nor is it the point I'm making

 

1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

Reflexive anti-intellectualism isn't critical thought.  It's an emotionally driven resentment of people who are smarter and more successful than you are, and the fact that some stuff is beyond your understanding. "People laugh at me!"

 

Cute insult. Maybe actually read my posts before you go railing against arguments I haven't made

 

1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

It's not the end of the world.  A nuclear bomb going of in Boise wouldn't be the end of the world. If nothing else happened, it wouldn't even have that much impact in the grand scheme. It would still be very bad.  

 

A nuclear bomb going off in a civilian populated area would be very bad. I'm saying millions dying from COVID-19 would be bad too -- I agree with you. But notice how before COVID-19 there wasn't non-stop coverage and sensationalizing of the possibility a nuclear holocaust? 

 

Why not? Probably because there are checks and balances, and mitigations that make a nuclear holocaust unlikely. Possible, yes, but unlikely. It's also just not productive to hung up on that possibility, however bad.

 

Is it possible millions die from COVID-19? Yes, and that would be horrible. Is it unlikely because checks and balances and mitigations that would probably take place and have been occurring?

 

 

1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

An example of critical thinking might be realizing that only people with a very narrow political perspective agree with you about some external fact about the world that is apolitical.

 

This isn't about politics. It's about criticism of overly-negative and overly-pessimistic coverage and discourse with regards to COVID-19 that isn't really practical, realistic, or helpful

 

 

In any scenario, a general rule of thumb is that things are never as bad as they seem or as good as they seem. I'm making a case for the middle ground and stating that many people are skewing towards the "as bad as they seem" a bit too much. If you want to continue to hurl insults at me for that then have at it but I don't think it's that unreasonable of a perspective.

Edited by UberRebel
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Posted (edited)

@UberRebelI was kind of addressing the whole cadre of "it's a hoax" "it's not as bad as the flu" etc. and might have lumped you in with them more than you deserve, for which I apologize.

Reviewing the quote, you also weren't one of those saying the disease is now cured, just as you magically knew all along, so my bad. 

However, you criticize the "extreme measures" being taking.  The overwhelming majority of expert opinion is in favor of shutting stuff down pretty hard.  I assume that's what you were referencing.  If not, and you do favor the shut downs, my bad. 

When you talk about the media "fear mongering" and how the worst case scenarios are "nowhere near going to happen," it sounds to me like you do not think this is shaping up to be a fairly big disaster.  Really, at no point have I seen an expert opinion or reports in the media that this will be some apocalypse.  Just a very bad thing that will inevitably kill thousands, and could easily kill hundreds of thousands if we don't take it seriously.  That seems to be accurate.  

When you say "nowhere near going to happen" you are making a pretty firm prediction and assuming you somehow know the outcome, rather than accepting a range of possible outcomes. No other way to slice it.

Sorry again for lumping you in with the "hoax" and "flu" people if that is not your camp.

Edited by GamblorLA

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

There are indeed a range of possible outcomes. Good FBB players focus on the most likely outcomes and don't get overly worked up about the least likely ones. I'm saying the media and others have been focusing on the least likely outcome, which is the worst case scenario where no mitigation is taken by any one. I understand acknowledging it initially is needed to frame the scope of concern, but I think reasonable people would agree it's being beaten to death

 

 

I never said anyone guaranteed we'd lose millions of people. I said people that continue to harp on the possibility of losing millions of people and using that to scare people into whatever reaction they want to arouse haven't been particularly helpful to the general response to the situation

 

 

If you're referring to advocating against social distancing, I'm not sure how you concluded that was my stance - I'm all for it. My main thesis is that the fear-mongering and emphasis on the worst-case outcome hasn't been helpful

 

 

There you go again assigning arguments to me that I never made. Seriously, where did I ever even discuss Hydroxychloroquine? Instead of addressing my post, you're taking your frustrations on the "it's just the flu" folks out on me. That's not the side I'm taking nor is it the point I'm making

 

 

Cute insult. Maybe actually read my posts before you go railing against arguments I haven't made

 

 

A nuclear bomb going off in a civilian populated area would be very bad. I'm saying millions dying from COVID-19 would be bad too -- I agree with you. But notice how before COVID-19 there wasn't non-stop coverage and sensationalizing of the possibility a nuclear holocaust? 

 

Why not? Probably because there are checks and balances, and mitigations that make a nuclear holocaust unlikely. Possible, yes, but unlikely. It's also just not productive to hung up on that possibility, however bad.

 

Is it possible millions die from COVID-19? Yes, and that would be horrible. Is it unlikely because checks and balances and mitigations that would probably take place and have been occurring?

 

 

 

This isn't about politics. It's about criticism of overly-negative and overly-pessimistic coverage and discourse with regards to COVID-19 that isn't really practical, realistic, or helpful

 

 

In any scenario, a general rule of thumb is that things are never as bad as they seem or as good as they seem. I'm making a case for the middle ground and stating that many people are skewing towards the "as bad as they seem" a bit too much. If you want to continue to hurl insults at me for that then have at it but I don't think it's that unreasonable of a perspective.

It's usually wise to err towards the side of caution that effects lives and we don't have all the facts about. That is key here, our knowledge is developing. You are putting trust into mitigation/check/balances into fighting something that is acting faster then we are equipped for. Yes, we will catch up, but when? It's a very open ended question given how freaking contagious this is and limited our testing is.

No one treats an activity were there is a 5% chance of dying vs the 5% chance of losing money or some other asset. 

Presenting the worst case is still good information to have. It helps push forward efforts to curve it. The media is going to be the media. People react more to negativity then positive. So that is what sells. That is never going to change unless people change. It's like complaining about it being a rainy day.

We have had Nukes for 70 years. 70 years of wisdom to develop measures, counter measures, layers to prevent worst case. In the early years of nukes. We did some pretty dumb things and had close calls that were due more to luck then checks and balances. 

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

The overwhelming majority of expert opinion is in favor of shutting stuff down pretty hard.  I assume that's what you were referencing.  If not, and you do favor the shut downs, my bad. 

 


 

 

2 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

This isn't about politics. It's about criticism of overly-negative and overly-pessimistic coverage and discourse with regards to COVID-19 that isn't really practical, realistic, or helpful

With respect to the above quotes,


A bit of good news.  This is one of the extremely few positive stories I’ve read. It’s from reputable media source in Canada.

https://www.cp24.com/news/we-ve-seen-a-flattening-b-c-measures-appear-to-have-slowed-the-increase-in-covid-19-1.4871868

for those that don’t want to read it, it suggests that British Columbia is showing strong trends of flattering the curve similar to South KoreA.  The success is attributed to effective social distancing and preparing for it as if it would be a worst case.  Perhaps it took a little fear mongering to ensure people were actually distancing themselves properly.  Hopefully we’ll see more of these types of stories pop up so that we can hold this thing down long enough for the big boys to come in and punch it in the face with a vaccine.

 

stay safe everyone,
 

 

Edited by Cesare13
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Anyone saying this is just like the flu or it’s a hoax hasn’t had it. I have pneumonia from it and am still at home on antibiotics because the hospitals are too full and I’m still considered a ‘mild’ case. With pneumonia. I wake up everyday and can barely breathe for the first few hours and have to sit there and wonder if this is the day I’m gonna have to get ventilated. I’m also 34 and was in good health before all of this. No asthma, smoking or any of that. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Taking a victory lap based on a new study by the same fraudster who put out the first ridiculously bastardized study?

Enjoy, man.  I'll let the scientists weigh in on this one in due time, just like they did when they found all of the junk science in his first one.

 

so 80 patients in a high infection/critical unit....and 78 recovered because of (most likely because of) hcq/a.  97.5% recovery in 5 days for people on the drug.

we should ignore it right???

 

ALSO.  im hearing reports that a doctor in NY has treated 659 patients with the drug and only a handful of complications and all but 5 recovered.  will post link when available.  

 

but in the meantime, lets keep pushing media hysteria....thats always the smart option

Edited by jfazz23

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12 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Anyone saying this is just like the flu or it’s a hoax hasn’t had it. I have pneumonia from it and am still at home on antibiotics because the hospitals are too full and I’m still considered a ‘mild’ case. With pneumonia. I wake up everyday and can barely breathe for the first few hours and have to sit there and wonder if this is the day I’m gonna have to get ventilated. I’m also 34 and was in good health before all of this. No asthma, smoking or any of that. 

 

well that sucks. and i hope everything turns out well for you

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27 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

so 80 patients in a high infection/critical unit....and 78 recovered because of (most likely because of) hcq/a.  97.5% recovery in 5 days for people on the drug.

we should ignore it right???

 

ALSO.  im hearing reports that a doctor in NY has treated 659 patients with the drug and only a handful of complications and all but 5 recovered.  will post link when available.  

 

but in the meantime, lets keep pushing media hysteria....thats always the smart option

If it’s only most likely because of something then the evidence isn’t conclusive. That’s correlation not causation. The fact that it’s the same person who ran a horribly flawed study already shows how little you should believe what they write. Same amount of evidence that shocking people continuously would make them less gay. 

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21 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

well that sucks. and i hope everything turns out well for you...  this is not even as bad as the flu.

 

Can't have it both ways dude.  

If you think this is a hoax and doctors, nurses and patients have been trumping up their experiences to further some political agenda, which is what you have been saying, effing own it.  

Or, face reality. 

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Anyone saying this is just like the flu or it’s a hoax hasn’t had it. I have pneumonia from it and am still at home on antibiotics because the hospitals are too full and I’m still considered a ‘mild’ case. With pneumonia. I wake up everyday and can barely breathe for the first few hours and have to sit there and wonder if this is the day I’m gonna have to get ventilated. I’m also 34 and was in good health before all of this. No asthma, smoking or any of that. 

That sucks man, I wish you the best

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