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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

We're going to see players take the field in empty stadiums this year, aren't we?

If ONE player catches the CoronaVirus it's going to shut that entire team/franchise down for a minimum of two weeks.  That seems unprecedented to me in any of the major U.S. sports.  

Last projection I saw is that the US will be at Italy level (10k infected) in 10-14 days. Not that the testing is remotely accurate enough at the moment to know where the real # is. It's probably not going to slow after that. At some point an athlete or coach (NCAAB, NBA, NHL, or MLB) will likely get it and the response will say a lot about what happens in other sports. The NCAA tournament March 19-21 is in Spokane, Washington. If there are empty arena games there then I think it's a harbinger of things to come in every other sport.

Canceling SXSW was essentially burning up $350M. That was a pretty huge deal. Aggressive responses are starting to look more common than not.

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1 hour ago, sleepysock said:

Last projection I saw is that the US will be at Italy level (10k infected) in 10-14 days. Not that the testing is remotely accurate enough at the moment to know where the real # is. It's probably not going to slow after that. At some point an athlete or coach (NCAAB, NBA, NHL, or MLB) will likely get it and the response will say a lot about what happens in other sports. The NCAA tournament March 19-21 is in Spokane, Washington. If there are empty arena games there then I think it's a harbinger of things to come in every other sport.

Canceling SXSW was essentially burning up $350M. That was a pretty huge deal. Aggressive responses are starting to look more common than not.

 

Italy has canceled essentially all sports in the country.

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2 hours ago, sleepysock said:

Last projection I saw is that the US will be at Italy level (10k infected) in 10-14 days. Not that the testing is remotely accurate enough at the moment to know where the real # is. It's probably not going to slow after that. At some point an athlete or coach (NCAAB, NBA, NHL, or MLB) will likely get it and the response will say a lot about what happens in other sports. The NCAA tournament March 19-21 is in Spokane, Washington. If there are empty arena games there then I think it's a harbinger of things to come in every other sport.

Canceling SXSW was essentially burning up $350M. That was a pretty huge deal. Aggressive responses are starting to look more common than not.

I agree with this.  It sucks, but the need to avoid large groups together in a confined environment is becoming increasingly apparent.

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What % chance do you guys think opening day will be pushed back to May 1st? 20%?

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3 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

What % chance do you guys think opening day will be pushed back to May 1st? 20%?

It might be more likely they play, without crowds.  Big thing for MLB is TV ratings/revenue, I believe.

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3 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

What % chance do you guys think opening day will be pushed back to May 1st? 20%?

 

They aren’t going to push it back. They can’t play into December on the other end and there’s little guarantee May 1 would be any better than it is right now. They’ll just play empty stadiums where appropriate until appropriate 

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3 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

They aren’t going to push it back. They can’t play into December on the other end and there’s little guarantee May 1 would be any better than it is right now. They’ll just play empty stadiums where appropriate until appropriate 

I agree they don't want to play until December....what if they just shorten the season to 130 games instead? There is no guarantee May will be better but now is not the peak of this virus in the USA.

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Gosh darn Yahoo doesn't have Rick Grimes in the database yet..

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18 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

It might be more likely they play, without crowds.  Big thing for MLB is TV ratings/revenue, I believe.

Yes but it's putting the players at risk

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Just now, Ecofolux said:

Yes but it's putting the players at risk

Generally speaking, it's the elderly that are most vulnerable to this. While everybody's still getting their heads around this, there are signs it's not particularly dangerous to the young and healthy. 

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1 minute ago, Hanghow said:

Generally speaking, it's the elderly that are most vulnerable to this. While everybody's still getting their heads around this, there are signs it's not particularly dangerous to the young and healthy.

Oh yes definitely, not really any worse than the common flu. But what I'm saying is if a player/players get it, will the team be forced to not play? Symptoms are much slower compared to the common flu.

What I'm about to say is purely hypothetical.... Let's say Cole had Coronavirus, now Gary has it. Well Gary sneezed on Stanton and Judge 4 days ago but they don't show signs (even though they are carrying it), they coughed around Frazier and Voit and now they will have it and so on and so on.... Normal flu symptoms appear usually 1-3 days after expose. Corona virus takes 5 days.

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8 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

Generally speaking, it's the elderly that are most vulnerable to this. While everybody's still getting their heads around this, there are signs it's not particularly dangerous to the young and healthy. 

This is a very irresponsible take, IMO.  Even if it's not particularly dangerous to the young, when the young are infected they are hosts and it will eventually pass to the elderly and immune compromised to whom it has high potential to be fatal.  Games could be played in empty stadiums not just to protect the players on the field, but also the people in the stands.

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36 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Oh yes definitely, not really any worse than the common flu.

 

I work for a government agency heavily involved in the covid-19.  It's worse than the flu as we know it.  The whole Flu vs Covid 19 thing is silly.  The flu has wiped out a large % of the population in the past.  Covid-19 is more contagious and has a higher mortality rate currently.  People say "only elderly are effected" as if we don't all have elderly family members.  Unfortunately, much of out data is coming from unreliable CDC's in other counties  Italy has been rocked by it.  Guess we're about to find out how serious this really is.  

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2 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

I work for a government agency heavily involved in the covid-19.  It's worse than the flu as we know it.  The whole Flu vs Covid 19 thing is silly.  The flu has wiped out a large % of the population in the past.  Covid-19 is more contagious and has a higher mortality rate currently.  People say "only elderly are effected" as if we don't all have elderly family members.  Unfortunately, much of out data is coming from unreliable CDC's in other counties  Italy has been rocked by it.  Guess we're about to find out how serious this really is.  

 

Definitey true, but if you are specifically talking about the health of young people than for them alone it is about as dangerous as flu. That’s not to disregard it:  older people are equally people to the young and the biggest danger is having your entire health care system inundated by people such that it basically bends until it breaks. But mortality rates for someone under 50 is comparable to common flu

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1 hour ago, Ecofolux said:

I agree they don't want to play until December....what if they just shorten the season to 130 games instead? There is no guarantee May will be better but now is not the peak of this virus in the USA.

 

$$$ (don’t be silly!)

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One of the great potential injustices of coronavirus: the Astros may have to play all their road games without hostile fanfare!

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15 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Definitey true, but if you are specifically talking about the health of young people than for them alone it is about as dangerous as flu. That’s not to disregard it:  older people are equally people to the young and the biggest danger is having your entire health care system inundated by people such that it basically bends until it breaks. But mortality rates for someone under 50 is comparable to common flu

AFAIK it's 10x more fatal for those under 50 than the regular flu.

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7 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

AFAIK it's 10x more fatal for those under 50 than the regular flu.

 

All numbers I’ve seen say 0.2% of cases which is reasonably in line with flu, but logic suggestions a ton of young people have only had the mild symptoms and not sought treatment or been tested so I think it’s even less than that.  But certainly I don’t want to diminish this in any way. Major steps needed to be taken to protect our older citizens and our health care system 

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29 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Definitey true, but if you are specifically talking about the health of young people than for them alone it is about as dangerous as flu. That’s not to disregard it:  older people are equally people to the young and the biggest danger is having your entire health care system inundated by people such that it basically bends until it breaks. But mortality rates for someone under 50 is comparable to common flu

This is correct. Mortality rate is higher not because it’s inherently more dangerous, but because the incubation period is so much longer that it spreads more quickly, and were more likely to pass to those with weaker immune systems. You are spot on and giving facts in no way diminishes the severity. Both things can be true. 

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3 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

All numbers I’ve seen say 0.2% of cases which is reasonably in line with flu, but logic suggestions a ton of young people have only had the mild symptoms and not sought treatment or been tested so I think it’s even less than that.  But certainly I don’t want to diminish this in any way. Major steps needed to be taken to protect our older citizens and our health care system 

According to the CDC, for people under 50 it's .02% for the flu and between .2 and .4% for C19.

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9 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

According to the CDC, for people under 50 it's .02% for the flu and between .2 and .4% for C19.

 

Ah yes I made an error. I compared flu mortality to under 50 Covid mortality but should have used under 50 flu mortality. Thanks for finding my mistake 

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By opening day this virus will be taken seriously enough to shut down MLB for the 2020 season.

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15 minutes ago, DivisionVision said:

By opening day this virus will be taken seriously enough to shut down MLB for the 2020 season.

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33 minutes ago, DivisionVision said:

By opening day this virus will be taken seriously enough to shut down MLB for the 2020 season.


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The latest possible scenario:

Quote

Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports that the Mariners may play their season-opening series against the Rangers in Peoria, Arizona.

Peoria, of course, is the spring training home of the Mariners. On Wednesday, Washington state governor Jay Inslee is expected to issued a mandate that restricts gatherings of more than 250 people in wake of the COVID-19 breakout that has seen 24 people die from the disease as of Tuesday morning. It's also possible that the series could be moved to the Rangers' new ballpark, but it doesn't appear that is a likely solution at this point.

Source: The Athletic                            Mar 10, 2020, 11:03 PM ET

 

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