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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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8 hours ago, MrBrown said:

Ok Dr. Phil.. You're just assuming these people are using "Baseball in May" as some kind of coping mechanism :facepalm:  Rather than they just have a total lack of awareness to the magnitude of this pandemic.  Jeez probably in the last 10 comments we have someone else saying there's less to be concerned with COVID19 than the seasonal flu.

Plenty of people (members here too) believe this is just propaganda and conspiracy.  Those people are far more common than you think (thats obvious)

A coworker of mine on facebook posted that all of the media attention and government action in response to covid is just a media conspiracy to make trump look bad. 

So, yeah there are people out there who dismiss this (for a multitude of reasons, not just trump defense). 

 

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The "greater chance of dying in a car accident" thing gets thrown around a lot as kind of a thought-terminating cliche, but it doesn't survive even the smallest amount of scrutiny.  The only reason we tolerate the relatively high risk of dying in a car accident is because we're going somewhere we want/need to go.  Work, home, a ballgame, whatever.  Those things keep us alive or give us a reason to live.  Contracting and possibly dying from COVID-19, meanwhile, has no positive value.  It just makes you sick and maybe kills you.

Ultimately, we won't be able to come to an agreement on how seriously to take the pandemic, and we don't really need to.  Some will seize on a single error in a single network newscast out of many thousands since the virus came to the US as proof that there's a conspiracy to hurt the economy and attack the President while downplaying the individual risk to any one young, healthy American (which is indeed quite small.)  Others will look at the totality of the coverage and see things like the megachurch service on Sunday and hold-out governors still saying there's no need for social distancing, and conclude that we're actually not doing enough.  Others will fall somewhere in the middle.

This is what we get when we build a community around fantasy sports and not shared ideological principles.  This community exists to talk fantasy sports, not to reconcile our political / ideological beliefs.  What we do need to do at this point, and I'm donning my moderator hat for this bit, is to treat each other with respect, even when we conclude that someone's beliefs are potentially harmful.  If we can do less "LOL, you think X..." and more "can you explain why you think X" or "this is why I don't agree with X", this thread would be a lot more useful and informative, and I'd have to remove far fewer comments that are doing nothing but making someone else feel bad for sharing their opinion.

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Man, did I get off Facebook at just the right time. What a tire fire that trash site is.

With social distancing guidelines now through April (as of the administration's press conference yesterday. That could easily change with one Trump/Fox News interview), I'd say the "baseball in May" crowd needs to find a new month. Best case scenario now is spring training baseball towards the end of May, IMO. But again, with each state handling this differently, trying to plan around a national sport is practically impossible. If all states would just issue stay-at-home orders now (forget federal, it's abundantly clear that won't be happening), we'd have a chance at baseball in June. As long as states like Florida refuse to do anything (issuing "safer at home" orders, whatever that means, doesn't count), starting up any sport is going to be extra difficult. Every day we're not on national lock down tacks on several more days until we have a chance at baseball. This country's response, especially as it ravages major cities, is stunningly awful.

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9 hours ago, MrBrown said:

Ok Dr. Phil.. You're just assuming these people are using "Baseball in May" as some kind of coping mechanism :facepalm:  Rather than they just have a total lack of awareness to the magnitude of this pandemic.  Jeez probably in the last 10 comments we have someone else saying there's less to be concerned with COVID19 than the seasonal flu.

Plenty of people (members here too) believe this is just propaganda and conspiracy.  Those people are far more common than you think (thats obvious)

I don’t think this is a conspiracy at all.  I think this is serious but way over hyped.  To the point where you can’t get meat and toilet paper because people are hoarding and think it’s the end of the world. If the media showed thousands of body bags from the flu each year it would be a different world.  No one blinks an eye when someone has a flu even though it’s a serious deadly killer.  They don’t shut things down for that though.  On a side note,  people used to laugh at me because I’m a germaphobe and always carrying hand sanitizer wherever I go.  Well those same people now are doing the same and scrubbing their hands.  Go figure.  

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by posty
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13 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Man, did I get off Facebook at just the right time. What a tire fire that trash site is.

With social distancing guidelines now through April (as of the administration's press conference yesterday. That could easily change with one Trump/Fox News interview), I'd say the "baseball in May" crowd needs to find a new month. Best case scenario now is spring training baseball towards the end of May, IMO. But again, with each state handling this differently, trying to plan around a national sport is practically impossible. If all states would just issue stay-at-home orders now (forget federal, it's abundantly clear that won't be happening), we'd have a chance at baseball in June. As long as states like Florida refuse to do anything (issuing "safer at home" orders, whatever that means, doesn't count), starting up any sport is going to be extra difficult. Every day we're not on national lock down tacks on several more days until we have a chance at baseball. This country's response, especially as it ravages major cities, is stunningly awful.

So, baseball in May?

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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

So, baseball in May?

If everything goes perfectly. Unlikely.

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1 hour ago, MrBrown said:

lol wtf are you talking about.  You couldn't just carry guns and knives onto planes before 9/11. A lot of things did change though.  What's likely to change following this pandemic is people just being more conscious of hand hygiene and being more sanitary.  Maybe people will stop eating bats and all that other nasty stuff too.

 

Most certainly a crippling blow to my fried guano food truck plans.

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

There's no sports on.....we gotta have SOMETHING to watch.

 

Survivor, STILL the best show on TV, dont @ me  

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

A coworker of mine on facebook posted that all of the media attention and government action in response to covid is just a media conspiracy to make trump look bad. 

So, yeah there are people out there who dismiss this (for a multitude of reasons, not just trump defense). 

 

 

Amazing they were able to get all the MLB & NBA owners to punt hundreds of millions of dollars to go along with it.  That's quite the hoax.

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[ Posts removed.  We're not doing "9/11 was an inside job" here, period.  If that's not what your point is, then you need to be more careful about invoking 9/11 to support your argument. ]

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12 hours ago, MrBrown said:

Ok Dr. Phil.. You're just assuming these people are using "Baseball in May" as some kind of coping mechanism :facepalm:  Rather than they just have a total lack of awareness to the magnitude of this pandemic.  Jeez probably in the last 10 comments we have someone else saying there's less to be concerned with COVID19 than the seasonal flu.

Plenty of people (members here too) believe this is just propaganda and conspiracy.  Those people are far more common than you think (thats obvious)

The New England Journal of Medicine and Dr. Fauci may disagree with you. Some guy shared this on Facebook, but I made sure to tell him it must not be true because MrBrown on rotoworld said otherwise. 
 

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?fbclid=IwAR0Elt6J9F9cguVf0QOPGPKUJ8ebtCfsXJzNPw-uQu9el1SRoAIjKFZiYXI

 

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5 hours ago, MrBrown said:

lol wtf are you talking about.  You couldn't just carry guns and knives onto planes before 9/11. A lot of things did change though.  What's likely to change following this pandemic is people just being more conscious of hand hygiene and being more sanitary.  Maybe people will stop eating bats and all that other nasty stuff too.

Hummm so when I took my old boy scout pocket knife on a airplane back in 1985 in my pocket with my car keys and a few coins I was not allowed to do it?

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4 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

The "greater chance of dying in a car accident" thing gets thrown around a lot as kind of a thought-terminating cliche, but it doesn't survive even the smallest amount of scrutiny.  The only reason we tolerate the relatively high risk of dying in a car accident is because we're going somewhere we want/need to go.  Work, home, a ballgame, whatever.  Those things keep us alive or give us a reason to live.

 

That and if you don't drink or drive late at night your chances of dying in a car accident are astronomically smaller than the overall whole statistic of % of people who die in car accidents.

 

Also when operating a vehicle you have some sense of control to somewhat maneuver your own fate.  The only thing you can control about catching covid is to isolate and execute good hygiene after the times you had to leave the house.  Otherwise you're just a percent chance floating around out there.

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58 minutes ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

Hummm so when I took my old boy scout pocket knife on a airplane back in 1985 in my pocket with my car keys and a few coins I was not allowed to do it?

Some knives were ok. Guns I dont think ever. 

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

The New England Journal of Medicine and Dr. Fauci may disagree with you. Some guy shared this on Facebook, but I made sure to tell him it must not be true because MrBrown on rotoworld said otherwise. 
 

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?fbclid=IwAR0Elt6J9F9cguVf0QOPGPKUJ8ebtCfsXJzNPw-uQu9el1SRoAIjKFZiYXI

 

I've read 1% is more likely (but we will see). The bigger concern with covid is just how contagious it can be, and how long it can last away from a person (meaning on a surface like metal, plastic, suspended in air), hence some of the drastic actions that have been suggested or enforced to minimize the spread. Season flu % also accounts for hospitals being able to handle the load. That is not the case in some of the major hotspots like NYC (and likely more places to follow).

 

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4 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I've read 1% is more likely (but we will see). The bigger concern with covid is just how contagious it can be, and how long it can last away from a person (meaning on a surface like metal, plastic, suspended in air), hence some of the drastic actions that have been suggested or enforced to minimize the spread. Season flu % also accounts for hospitals being able to handle the load. That is not the case in some of the major hotspots like NYC (and likely more places to follow).

 

100%. And I’ve said and acknowledged as much here. It is a different animal, as evidence by the fact that we need to shut society down just to get it at the number it ends at (hopefully <1%). And because it’s so contagious, even if it ends at 0.1%, the death rate will be much higher because of the millions more who get it.

My point was more about the poster who has a superiority complex while making sweeping generalizations, yet acting like he’s the authority here. People saying “it’s not much different than the flu” aren’t 100% right, and we should have the dialogue you and I are having now. But clearly they’re not 100% wrong, and shouldn’t be treated as idiots by random rotoworld poster.

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5 hours ago, reichl555 said:

I don’t think this is a conspiracy at all.  I think this is serious but way over hyped.  To the point where you can’t get meat and toilet paper because people are hoarding and think it’s the end of the world. If the media showed thousands of body bags from the flu each year it would be a different world.  No one blinks an eye when someone has a flu even though it’s a serious deadly killer.  They don’t shut things down for that though.  ...

And they don't ban cigarettes even though the number of deaths world wide roughly every 7 to 8 years is equal to the deaths in the Holocaust.  It is just human nature when people die -- even in huge numbers -- but individually and spread over a longer time and scattered over more areas and going on for decades and decades that the human attention span can't keep focusing as much on something like this.  Especially when those deaths were brought on by at best what could be called "careless disregard" to medical research.

But we can focus more when it is something new out of nowhere or when we have images of actual body bags.  Of people who weren't on the whole acting carelessly or were going into harm's way but doing it in selfless service for others.  In others words the innocent and the brave.  Think war deaths.  Think 9/11.  Think coronavirus.

Speaking of 9/11, Americans killed by the coronavirus today passed the number of Americans killed on that day of horror.

1 hour ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

Hummm so when I took my old boy scout pocket knife on a airplane back in 1985 in my pocket with my car keys and a few coins I was not allowed to do it?

Just because he got one small detail wrong because he sounds like he wasn't around back then is no reason his over all post should be disregarded.  And I said in my post that pocket knives were okay before 9/11.  But guns and hunting knives etc were definitely not.  And I agree with his point totally.

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The percentage of a claim that may be true is a pretty poor metric on which to judge its effect on the conversation.  There are a lot of claims that have a non-zero percentage of truth to them that would not be suitable for inclusion in this discussion.

At the same time, nobody should be treating anyone here like idiots, and if someone is doing that, please report it to us.  But at a certain point, if you're making specific claims that don't hold up to scrutiny and require a percentage to express how correct they are, well, it's also your responsibility to read the room and understand that we're in a time of crisis, and people here are dealing with the disease themselves and hearing from friends and loved ones who have it, making even the most accurate "well, actually, it's not so bad" statement poorly-timed and therefore unlikely to lead to a productive conversation.

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11 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

The percentage of a claim that may be true is a pretty poor metric on which to judge its effect on the conversation.  There are a lot of claims that have a non-zero percentage of truth to them that would not be suitable for inclusion in this discussion.

At the same time, nobody should be treating anyone here like idiots, and if someone is doing that, please report it to us.  But at a certain point, if you're making specific claims that don't hold up to scrutiny and require a percentage to express how correct they are, well, it's also your responsibility to read the room and understand that we're in a time of crisis, and people here are dealing with the disease themselves and hearing from friends and loved ones who have it, making even the most accurate "well, actually, it's not so bad" statement poorly-timed and therefore unlikely to lead to a productive conversation.

But none of us know yet. It’s literally all speculation. And yes, we should be listening to the authorities, one of which (and maybe THE authority) here is saying, “...the clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.”  So I don’t think we need to ridicule or shout down people who ultimately agree with Dr. Fauci. 

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Context matters.  "If one assumes" is doing a whole lot of work in the NEJM article, but even if one makes those assumptions, a 1% case fatality rate is still 10 times that of the seasonal flu -- it's just not anywhere near as infectious as SARS or MERS.  He's saying that it's likely somewhere in the middle if one makes some assumptions about data that we can't yet measure.

Similarly, the context of the posters making these claims also matters.  Many flu comparisons have been made, some more akin to Fauci et al.'s claims of being not as infectious as some other diseases, others clearly intended to say that it's barely worse than the flu.

If you are upset that someone is ridiculing / shouting down, report the posts.  Just keep in mind that responding with ridicule of your own aimed at them weakens your case.

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53 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Speaking of 9/11, Americans killed by the coronavirus today passed the number of Americans killed on that day of horror.

Your right and 34,000 deaths from the flu in the United States in 2019. 

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27 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Context matters.  "If one assumes" is doing a whole lot of work in the NEJM article, but even if one makes those assumptions, a 1% case fatality rate is still 10 times that of the seasonal flu -- it's just not anywhere near as infectious as SARS or MERS.  He's saying that it's likely somewhere in the middle if one makes some assumptions about data that we can't yet measure.

Similarly, the context of the posters making these claims also matters.  Many flu comparisons have been made, some more akin to Fauci et al.'s claims of being not as infectious as some other diseases, others clearly intended to say that it's barely worse than the flu.

If you are upset that someone is ridiculing / shouting down, report the posts.  Just keep in mind that responding with ridicule of your own aimed at them weakens your case.

(bolding mine)

I've read that COVID-19 is similarly transmissible to SARS (r0 = 3), do you mean that it's just not anywhere near as deadly as SARS or MERS?

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