bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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2 minutes ago, markdash said:

I've read that COVID-19 is similarly transmissible to SARS (r0 = 3), do you mean that it's just not anywhere near as deadly as SARS or MERS?

 

Yes, good catch.  Meant to say not nearly as fatal.

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8 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Your right and 34,000 deaths from the flu in the United States in 2019. 

 

Get as much mileage as you can out of that talking point, because it expires in about 2 weeks based on our current trajectory.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, reichl555 said:

. If the media showed thousands of body bags from the flu each year it would be a different world.  No one blinks an eye when someone has a flu even though it’s a serious deadly killer.  They don’t shut things down for that though

Comparing the lethality and healthcare implications of covid-19 to the seasonal flu makes you sound extremely ignorant. Every single scientific source contradicts your line of thinking. 

Edited by cs3
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I've read 1% is more likely (but we will see). The bigger concern with covid is just how contagious it can be, and how long it can last away from a person (meaning on a surface like metal, plastic, suspended in air), hence some of the drastic actions that have been suggested or enforced to minimize the spread. Season flu % also accounts for hospitals being able to handle the load. That is not the case in some of the major hotspots like NYC (and likely more places to follow).

 

 

The mortality rate in America has been rising despite testing being more available.  It was in the 1.1% - 1.4% range for days.  When I checked this morning it was at 1.9% now it is up to 1.98%.  Globally the death rate is at 4.9% (albeit missing many asymptomatic / mild symptom) the overall global death rate has been trending higher while testing has been greatly increasing.  For over a week straight was in bouncing around between 3.0% - 3.5% and it's just steadily rose from there.

 

This trend could get quite a bit worse once hospitals start hitting and exceeding capacity.  We have to see how dedicated everyone continues to be with social distancing.  As well as we have to see how creative cities and states get with testing and make shift hospitalization.  Drugs to treat it will also help get people out of the hospital depending on how efficient they are.  But the main problem I hear doctors fear is that we could eventually run out of ventilators. 

 

Also here's where I pull my numbers from.  Seems to be the most accurate I've found.  Has state by state breakdowns on it too.  As well as all the other countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Edited by FouLLine
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20 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Your right and 34,000 deaths from the flu in the United States in 2019. 

 

Are you wanting us to start another thread about the deadliness of the seasonal flu?

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I can tell you’ll do not get sick at this given time. Going to the doc’s office is thing of the past. In the past i would have been told to come in not in these times. I need to pray my hernia stays intact for now... 

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Since we're comparing numbers of people affected by _____(fill in the blank) to covid19, I thought that this might qualify for the topic of discussion: 

The total number of Americans that either die, or are involved in accidents where texting and driving(which we don't have strict enough penalties for..fines are way too small imo), is one of the top 2 causes of auto accidents, around 1.6 million annually, with over 300,000 deaths annually according to: https://carsurance.net/blog/texting-and-driving-statistics/, drinking and driving is the top. They both affect Americans each and every day, these are selfish people who think that their text/calls, driving while or after drinking or doing  drugs that impair you judgments, are more important than the safety of everyone around them and have a total disregard for the laws that exist.....how many of you text while driving? or drive after drinking? How about your teen age kids? Are you strict enough with them about this? Anyone here lost a loved on due to them? I have, and am more angry that we as a society, haven't done enough to stop these activities then I am about someone slowly killing themselves by smoking or doing drugs while in the privacy of your own home, that's your right, but when you go out in public, and put other peoples lives at risk, much the same as with someone being infected by this virus, but continue to go out in public and disregarding sage advise from the experts. This is a HUGE problem here in America...please just stop, I beg of you. You'd have a much different opinion on this if you were affected personally.

I'm still waiting on car manufacturers to install phone disabling technology so as to prevent people from making that stupid, reckless decision since people can't/won't stop on their own..

more than the seasonal flu fwiw....

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1 minute ago, FISH ON said:

Since we're comparing numbers of people affected by _____(fill in the blank) to covid19, I thought that this might qualify for the topic of discussion: 

The total number of Americans that either die, or are involved in accidents where texting and driving(which we don't have strict enough penalties for..fines are way too small imo), is one of the top 2 causes of auto accidents, around 1.6 million annually, with over 300,000 deaths annually according to: https://carsurance.net/blog/texting-and-driving-statistics/, drinking and driving is the top. They both affect Americans each and every day, these are selfish people who think that their text/calls, driving while or after drinking or doing  drugs that impair you judgments, are more important than the safety of everyone around them and have a total disregard for the laws that exist.....how many of you text while driving? or drive after drinking? How about your teen age kids? Are you strict enough with them about this? Anyone here lost a loved on due to them? I have, and am more angry that we as a society, haven't done enough to stop these activities then I am about someone slowly killing themselves by smoking or doing drugs while in the privacy of your own home, that's your right, but when you go out in public, and put other peoples lives at risk, much the same as with someone being infected by this virus, but continue to go out in public and disregarding sage advise from the experts. This is a HUGE problem here in America...please just stop, I beg of you. You'd have a much different opinion on this if you were affected personally.

I'm still waiting on car manufacturers to install phone disabling technology so as to prevent people from making that stupid, reckless decision since people can't/won't stop on their own..

more than the seasonal flu fwiw....

Totally agree.

Sent from my iPhone while driving drunk

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Well damn, got the number of deaths wrong, see, goes to prove that drinking impairs your judgment, /and reading while talking on your phone is distracting...the number of injuries caused by texting/driving is 390,000, not deaths, but the point remains..

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The thing nobody takes into account is the amount of people who feel a little sick and dont bother getting tested. Which I would imagine is a huge number of people. If all these people were tested, the mortality rate would be quite a bit lower. Most people getting tested are more severe cases who feel they need medical attention

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You gotta love that Chris Sale, during the middle of a CoronaVirus pandemic that's devastated medical infrastructure and left everyone desperate for manpower and supplies, managed to have an elective, non-weight-bearing orthopedic surgery performed on short notice.

The rich and powerful live by a different set of rules.  Always have, and don't let anyone tell you any different. 

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5 minutes ago, Big League Choo said:

The thing nobody takes into account is the amount of people who feel a little sick and dont bother getting tested. Which I would imagine is a huge number of people. If all these people were tested, the mortality rate would be quite a bit lower. Most people getting tested are more severe cases who feel they need medical attention

It's not about "wont bother". They flat out wont test you if you only show mild symptoms.

That is why the death rate is doesn't mean a lot to me. The only picture you need seeing the total number of deaths and how that is trending by day.

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5 minutes ago, Overlord said:

You gotta love that Chris Sale, during the middle of a CoronaVirus pandemic that's devastated medical infrastructure and left everyone desperate for manpower and supplies, managed to have an elective, non-weight-bearing orthopedic surgery performed on short notice.

The rich and powerful live by a different set of rules.  Always have, and don't let anyone tell you any different. 

I know that I'm going to get criticized for taking care of these kinds of guys, but it's essential to their livelihoods," ElAttrache told the San Francisco Chronicle on March 24. "If you have somebody's career at stake and they lose two seasons instead of one, I would say that is not a nonessential or unimportant elective procedure. ... We have to have some criteria. We don't want it to be arbitrary. We want the public to trust what we're doing.

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1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

I know that I'm going to get criticized for taking care of these kinds of guys, but it's essential to their livelihoods," ElAttrache told the San Francisco Chronicle on March 24. "If you have somebody's career at stake and they lose two seasons instead of one, I would say that is not a nonessential or unimportant elective procedure. ... We have to have some criteria. We don't want it to be arbitrary. We want the public to trust what we're doing.

 

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12 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I know that I'm going to get criticized for taking care of these kinds of guys, but it's essential to their livelihoods," ElAttrache told the San Francisco Chronicle on March 24. "If you have somebody's career at stake and they lose two seasons instead of one, I would say that is not a nonessential or unimportant elective procedure. ... We have to have some criteria. We don't want it to be arbitrary. We want the public to trust what we're doing.


“And I must perform the surgery to get paid.” 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:


“And I must perform the surgery to get paid.” 

 

I'd respect Dr. ElAttrache more if he just said:

"I want to get paid and professional athletes are incredibly important people, in contrast to the worthless lives most peasants lead.  I don't give two f**ks about our medical infrastructure being strained to the breaking point ... and that includes doctors and nurses dying worldwide, the desperate search for more medical professionals (including schools exploring "early graduation" options to cover the shortfall), and across-the-board shortages of medical supplies.  None of that matters to me because Chris Sale is rich and famous and I need to get paid and enhance my reputation."

At least if he said that he'd be honest. 

**I'd also note that he practices medicine in Los Angeles County and L.A. has issued a county-wide guideline that all elective medical procedures are to be postponed indefinitely. 

****Further noting that Dr. Tommy John (James Andrews), has postponed/cancelled all elective surgeries.

Edited by Overlord
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36 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

It's not about "wont bother". They flat out wont test you if you only show mild symptoms.

That is why the death rate is doesn't mean a lot to me. The only picture you need seeing the total number of deaths and how that is trending by day.

 

Exactly. So we are talking about a mortality rate among moderate to severe cases. Not mortality rate of anyone who contracts the disease. I agree wholeheartedly that percentage doesn't really tell the whole story

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finally. trump shuts up at the beginning of These pressers. and lets People who know what they are doing speak. Maybe now People will see that this will not go away easily (like trump thought and stated over and over).  

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The death rate is not the issue.  It is the hard number of people that will die and hospitals being overwhelmed.

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17 minutes ago, B&F said:

The death rate is not the issue.  It is the hard number of people that will die and hospitals being overwhelmed.

I mean, the death rate IS an issue considering the lack of herd immunity, the relatively high transmissibility and no vaccines or treatment available.

A 1% death rate for something that has been around for hundreds of years and has a vaccine isn't a big issue; diptheria has a fatality rate much higher (5-10%) but because we vaccinate for it, it can't get a foothold in our populations. This is despite relative ease of transmission (r0 = 7).

 

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2 hours ago, Overlord said:

 

I'd respect Dr. ElAttrache more if he just said:

"I want to get paid and professional athletes are incredibly important people, in contrast to the worthless lives most peasants lead.  I don't give two f**ks about our medical infrastructure being strained to the breaking point ... and that includes doctors and nurses dying worldwide, the desperate search for more medical professionals (including schools exploring "early graduation" options to cover the shortfall), and across-the-board shortages of medical supplies.  None of that matters to me because Chris Sale is rich and famous and I need to get paid and enhance my reputation."

At least if he said that he'd be honest. 

**I'd also note that he practices medicine in Los Angeles County and L.A. has issued a county-wide guideline that all elective medical procedures are to be postponed indefinitely. 

****Further noting that Dr. Tommy John (James Andrews), has postponed/cancelled all elective surgeries.

 

I get where you're coming from, but to play devil's advocate we all do the same kind of stuff every day. Yesterday I decided to indulge in a couple bottles of expensive beer.  I probably could have sent that same money to a refugee camp or something and saved someone's life.  

Also fwiw, Sale himself gets paid either way.  He'd probably maximize his career earnings by sitting out an extra year and having that much less mileage on his arm. The Sox and their fans might not be thrilled with that though.

Your core point is obviously right, but this case just makes the darker side of our normal behavior more obvious.

I think I'll get a couple more bottles for tonight.  

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Looking at the breakdown in states is wild. NY is a petri dish when you consider population density, word travelers, and public transportation. That said, when California was going shelter in place, De Blasio was encouraging all New Yorkers to be “business as usual.” 
New York has over 65,000 more cases and almost 1,400 more deaths than California to this point. What a catastrophic disaster. 

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I live in San Joaquin co Ca, our updated deaths as of today is 144. Sac co is now at 244, where US Davis is located. We've been under the Shelter in place order for 2 1/2 weeks now and see the rate climbing at a slower rate, evidence that the shelter in place is working. Not fast enough, but it will work if everyone abides by the orders. Stay safe, and please, wear gloves if you must get supplies. 

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Ohio has moved its projected peak up about a week to April 20ish. We have been under statewide stay-at-home orders for around 2 weeks. It’s estimated 2/3 of the population is cooperating.

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