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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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8 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah we all cable, Netfix and the entire world wide web and they think anyone wants to watch overpaid NBA players playing H-O-R-S-E.  Sports are fine but there are tons of other fine things to get into ALL of which are better than H-O-R-S-E games.

It's all about that gambling $$$$

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The whole saving lives vs. saving the economy isnt a zero sum game. 

Obviously lives should be the priority, but a wrecked economy will cost lives in it's own right. Theres a perfect balance out there for this is handled, but even that will be horrible. 

In general, it's alarming that it got this bad, but a virus that you can have and spread for two weeks before you even show signs is pretty awful. I do think that if this virus started here (for example) instead of China, it would have been knocked down quicker and the world notified sooner. 

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7 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

The whole saving lives vs. saving the economy isnt a zero sum game. 

Obviously lives should be the priority, but a wrecked economy will cost lives in it's own right. Theres a perfect balance out there for this is handled, but even that will be horrible. 

In general, it's alarming that it got this bad, but a virus that you can have and spread for two weeks before you even show signs is pretty awful. I do think that if this virus started here (for example) instead of China, it would have been knocked down quicker and the world notified sooner. 

That is the scary thing... the fact it didnt originate in the U.S.A and even so, the western world still was not prepared knowing it was coming. I honestly can not even imagine if it hit us blindly without any knowledge or time to prepare.. i feel it would have been even worse..

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38 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Obviously lives should be the priority, but a wrecked economy will cost lives in it's own right.

 

I'll take this argument seriously when anyone can show me a number for how many lives have been lost to the economic consequences of quarantining that wouldn't have otherwise been lost under the status quo.  Food insecurity, a lack of access to healthcare, etc. all existed prior to COVID-19, and they are certainly going to be challenging during this crisis, but vague "but the economy will hurt / kill people" arguments have to take a back seat to the immediate and unambiguous danger of the virus to the lives of so many until someone can bring credible evidence that the economy is or will be doing the same.

 

38 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I do think that if this virus started here (for example) instead of China, it would have been knocked down quicker and the world notified sooner. 

 

China does have a lot to answer for in terms of suppressing news about the threat, failing to act on the scale that was necessary, and refusal to work with international partners who wanted to try to gain access to more information in January.  Still, seeing how the United States has responded when it had two months of warning should dispel the myth that somehow we wouldn't be dealing with this if it started here.  Many of the same go-to plays from China's playbook have been employed here in the US, including reliance on political hacks instead of experts of the threat, reprisals against people who speak out, and denial that the problem exists until it's too late to contain.  They key difference is that the US had much more advance notice, and a much clearer picture of how deadly the threat was, so I'd argue things might be much worse if it started here.

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1 hour ago, OaksterDan said:

 

You're worried more about the economy (a social construct, not a real actual thing) versus human lives.  You're the one that's insane here.  

 

Like you, I am also concerned with lives.  I personally would love to know an accurate deaths per week in this country from everything and have it compared to previous years for perspective. To be crystal clear, I do not know the answer. I don't have an agenda, I just want to know.

 I've read pneumonia and flu deaths which constitute a significant number of deaths each week this time of year (every year) have plummeted significantly, leading me to believe at least some Covid deaths are being misclassified. Or it could very well be there are so many deaths that they aren't registering others?  Again, I don't know.

Also, not to downplay the severity of the very serious pandemic occurring right now, but a massive economic recession (social construct and all) will result in significant deaths too. 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I'll take this argument seriously when anyone can show me a number for how many lives have been lost to the economic consequences of quarantining that wouldn't have otherwise been lost under the status quo.  

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-usa-cost/?_ga=2.232340447.1173643637.1584526902-1902380447.1575518677

Not if this 100% applies to your response but it is a good article from a news site known to be pretty balanced politically. 

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The whole economy vs. lives thing rests on the notion that if there weren't lock downs life would just be humming along as normal, as if the virus doesn't exist. This is an abundantly incorrect assumption as people would still be protecting themselves from the virus in their own ways. Scared populace = conservative behavior = economic hit. Tired of hearing that if we'd just let everyone go about their business we'd have Dow 29,000 and it'd be like normal life. The economy is going to be struggling for quite some time, even when things "reopen."

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4 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

The whole economy vs. lives thing rests on the notion that if there weren't lock downs life would just be humming along as normal, as if the virus doesn't exist. This is an abundantly incorrect assumption as people would still be protecting themselves from the virus in their own ways. Scared populace = conservative behavior = economic hit. Tired of hearing that if we'd just let everyone go about their business we'd have Dow 29,000 and it'd be like normal life. The economy is going to be struggling for quite some time, even when things "reopen."

Right, there is no great outcome from this no matter what, just a "best" outcome. 

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25 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Not if this 100% applies to your response but it is a good article from a news site known to be pretty balanced politically. 

 

I'll accept it for the sake of argument.  However, the US was already overdue for a severe recession before COVID-19 hit the US, so stats like spikes in suicide rates and decreased years of lifespan can't all be assigned to the global lockdown.  COVID-19 was the precipitating event, of course, but economic indicators and economists across the ideological spectrum were warning of a looming recession, so I have to discount the numbers significantly since some economic misery was already going to happen.

With that said, let's look at the numbers in the article.  It cites 10,000 more suicides over 2 years following the Great Recession in the U.S., Canada, and Europe combined.  The source of that number isn't cited, but appears to be this Lancet study, which puts the increased suicides in the U.S. at 4,750 between 2007 and 2010, so roughly half of the 10,000 number for the entire study.  The Reuters article speculates that unemployment could surge to 20% leading to a total of 20,000 additional suicides, so let's assign half of that to the U.S. and say that there will be 10,000 additional suicides this time around.

Next, there's the idea of job losses during the 1982 recession cutting lifespans in the U.S. by "a collective two to three million years".  That's a big number, and checking out the paper the number is based on shows that the number of deaths is a pretty big number as well -- something along the lines of 140,000 to 170,000 lives lost prematurely in the age group they studied, and like with COVID-19, many of those losses were much later in life -- 90,000 to 120,000 of them age 80 or older, 130,000 to 160,000 at age 65 or older.

And that's pretty much it for hard data from the Reuters article.  It cites increased calls into domestic violence centers and difficulties for special education students, which are important to consider, but ultimately much harder to predict the impact of.

Meanwhile, against these ~20k more suicides and hundreds of thousands of deaths arguably attributable in part to the lockdown, we've got plausible analysis that says that recessions actually increase lifespans overall due to less driving, less air pollution, etc.  Focusing on suicides and other mortality due to unemployment without counting these factors that reduce mortality as the Reuters piece does is very misleading.

I don't really know where that leaves us, but I do know that we've got 8,000+ deaths here already from COVID with these measures being taken, and that the number would be much higher were we not doing what we could to minimize the threat.  I'll wait for studies to come in to assess the number of lives saved by social distancing before I say for certain, but it's hard for me to imagine the economic consequences causing as much harm as we're preventing with the lockdown.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Like you, I am also concerned with lives.  I personally would love to know an accurate deaths per week in this country from everything and have it compared to previous years for perspective. To be crystal clear, I do not know the answer. I don't have an agenda, I just want to know.

 I've read pneumonia and flu deaths which constitute a significant number of deaths each week this time of year (every year) have plummeted significantly, leading me to believe at least some Covid deaths are being misclassified. Or it could very well be there are so many deaths that they aren't registering others?  Again, I don't know.

Also, not to downplay the severity of the very serious pandemic occurring right now, but a massive economic recession (social construct and all) will result in significant deaths too. 

 

 

Anyone considered a covid death has tested positive to the virus prior to dying.  For classification purposes, 'mild' cases in the US also include pneumonia now.

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6 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

I watched 4 midgets race a camel yesterday.  Bring it on, I'll watch your HORSE.  

You're all welcome.  The last dude is killing it. 

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Just thinking out loud...

would you guys be in agreement with me if i suggested that how the soccer leagues in Europe approach things starting this week with the return to training together is further aid in N.Americas return to sport? Assuming that it all goes well, ofcourse. I also think their plan on eventually getting everyone training together (which hasnt been discussed yet) will also be a stepping stone in our aid to a return as well, again, if it all goes smoothly.

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2 minutes ago, jonninho said:

would you guys be in agreement with me if i suggested that how the soccer leagues in Europe approach things starting this week with the return to training together is further aid in N.Americas return to sport?

 

Yeah, sure.  It's a free natural experiment that Americans don't have to participate in, so any data that comes out of it is useful, be it positive or negative.  The problem is that the countries in question -- yes, even Italy -- have flattened their curves to an extent that the US hasn't -- so any data we get has to be considered a best case scenario until we reach their levels of containment.

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This info is from worldmeters.info

US deaths from or related to Covid19

March 1 - 1

March 8 - 22

March 15 - 69

March 22 - 414

March 29 - 2583

Currently we are now above 8,500

We are in a steep learning curve in many areas.

Making decisions based on limited data or unknowns is problematic. A month from now we'll have more data to make more informed decisions how to manage this tragic crisis going forward.  No easy answers...

Some are saying next week is going to be rough. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Yeah, sure.  It's a free natural experiment that Americans don't have to participate in, so any data that comes out of it is useful, be it positive or negative.  The problem is that the countries in question -- yes, even Italy -- have flattened their curves to an extent that the US hasn't -- so any data we get has to be considered a best case scenario until we reach their levels of containment.

another Problem is, the US will be in that  much longer. bigger Country (one month+ wasted) and sorry to say this, this blunt, you elected an idiot and this will get you idiotic results. all i watch day after day is a reality [...] Show. an effective, coordinated response looks different for sure. and i dont see that this will improve (but i hope it will, because your numbers really look ugly and this is an absolute tragedy). 

Edited by tonycpsu
You need to make your points without profanity here.
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16 hours ago, FISH ON said:

Some of us old guys put boots on the ground to preserve your life style, and to say that we're expendable? 

I don't think anyone meant all old guys are expendable. He probably means just you personally?

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13 minutes ago, cornerback said:

an effective, coordinated response looks different for sure. and i dont see that this will improve (but i hope it will, because your numbers really look ugly and this is an absolute tragedy). 

 

Yeah, I mean, there are certainly advantages to decentralization / federalism -- like when the federal government is doing the wrong things, you can at least mitigate the harm at the state levels as is being done now in many states -- but your country, South Korea, etc. have shown that when the feds do the right thing, a stronger central government can lead to better outcomes.  There are, as some said, differences in geography, etc. that don't make these perfect apples-to-apple comparisons, but I think those differences aren't enough to explain the better results in terms of flattening the curve seen outside the US.

And as much as we Americans are horrified by what's going on in NYC right now, there is a lot of evidence emerging that things are going to get much worse in the more sparsely-populated areas that have mostly shrugged and ignored the problem until now.

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2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Anyone considered a covid death has tested positive to the virus prior to dying. 

 

Since a lot of people die every day from pneumonia in general (every year), are we not overcounting COVID deaths if this is the case?  50K pnuemonia/flu deaths in 2019 (source https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm). If there is a steep drop off in weekly deaths of these things during the pandemic, seems like we are overcounting a little I would think

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30 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, I mean, there are certainly advantages to decentralization / federalism -- like when the federal government is doing the wrong things, you can at least mitigate the harm at the state levels as is being done now in many states -- but your country, South Korea, etc. have shown that when the feds do the right thing, a stronger central government can lead to better outcomes.  There are, as some said, differences in geography, etc. that don't make these perfect apples-to-apple comparisons, but I think those differences aren't enough to explain the better results in terms of flattening the curve seen outside the US.

And as much as we Americans are horrified by what's going on in NYC right now, there is a lot of evidence emerging that things are going to get much worse in the more sparsely-populated areas that have mostly shrugged and ignored the problem until now.

 

To me its all inevitable and just a matter of timing. Everyone will be hit hard, its just impossible to stop. The key is how its handled with the medical system is close to being overburdened. If we have no cases where people are being turned away for ventilators that need them, then the response is a success. Only other way is to completely isolate until a vaccine or cure is developed which will take too long before the economy collapses and exacerbates this and other problems.

In my opinion, the best model is basically straddling right along the peak line of overburdening the system. This way, the curve will be shorter in time. If you flatten it too much, the problem just lasts longer and everything is stopped longer. As long as the curve stays below the point of overburden, lowering the curve even further is not saving any additional lives, just prolonging the issue a few months.

In some positive news, New York reporting this morning they had its first daily decrease in coronavirus related deaths, which if that can continue may be a sign that the curve in NY is flattening. As I said above, NY is a week or 2 ahead of other states, its just a matter of time before other states reach similar levels. New York seems to be right near the burden point while still not turning anyone away. If we can last for another week or two the curve should start to trend downward.

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1 minute ago, Sidearmer said:

f you flatten it too much, the problem just lasts longer and everything is stopped longer.

 

Yeah, but in the mean time, we can make / acquire more protective equipment, hire / train more nurses, conduct more testing of antivirals, and get farther along into the development of vaccines.  Those advantages have to be weighed against the positive value of going to an economy running at, say, 10% capacity to one running at, say, 25% or 50% capacity.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Since a lot of people die every day from pneumonia in general (every year), are we not overcounting COVID deaths if this is the case?  50K pnuemonia/flu deaths in 2019 (source https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm). If there is a steep drop off in weekly deaths of these things during the pandemic, seems like we are overcounting a little I would think

CDC just stated today that they are most likely under reporting deaths as people are dying at home without being tested. The only way for a death to count for covid in the USA is if there is a positive test for covid.  No presumptive positives count towards the total deaths. 
 

https://apple.news/A8qQ-lDTgQJ2dODNsG25zcQ

Edited by daynlokki
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40 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Since a lot of people die every day from pneumonia in general (every year), are we not overcounting COVID deaths if this is the case?  50K pnuemonia/flu deaths in 2019 (source https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm). If there is a steep drop off in weekly deaths of these things during the pandemic, seems like we are overcounting a little I would think

What the other poster said is that every person who died of covid-19 had tested positive to same.  You seem to be saying that it is an either/or a pneumonia or a covid-19 thing.  But from what I've read and seen it is often both as in the covid-19 weakens and wrecks the body so it is very susceptible to pneumonia and vice versa.  To put it in your (heh) specific terms they can often attack the body like a bad guy wrestling tag team.

In other words if covid-19 beats the hell out of someone and then pneumonia scoots in to finish the poor person off he still dies of covid-19 as well.  Also vice versa.  As long as he/she has tested positive for the covid-19 virus then covid-19 is involved in that person's death and so is indeed a covid-19 dearth.

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1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

What the other poster said is that every person who died of covid-19 had tested positive to same.  You seem to be saying that it is an either/or a pneumonia or a covid-19 thing.  But from what I've read and seen it is often both as in the covid-19 weakens and wrecks the body so it is very susceptible to pneumonia and vice versa.  To put it in your (heh) specific terms they can often attack the body like a bad guy wrestling tag team.

In other words if covid-19 beats the hell out of someone and then pneumonia scoots in to finish the poor person off he still dies of covid-19 as well.  Also vice versa.  As long as he/she has tested positive for the covid-19 virus then covid-19 is involved in that person's death and so is indeed a covid-19 dearth.

Yup. Death by secondary infection is still counted as a covid death assuming a positive test for covid. 

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At what point of the day do these numbers on 'worldometers' get finalized? I am assuming it is by State depending on their respective time zone?

Looking at a lot of the numbers of some individual states, There seems to be positives happening.. although i realize untill it happens for days and days and days consecutively, it doesnt mean all that much just yet.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Since a lot of people die every day from pneumonia in general (every year), are we not overcounting COVID deaths if this is the case?  50K pnuemonia/flu deaths in 2019 (source https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm). If there is a steep drop off in weekly deaths of these things during the pandemic, seems like we are overcounting a little I would think

There are probably some people who are dying of COVID that may have died of something else in a hypothetical world w/o COVID in 2020. If that is what you mean.

Also, social distancing/taking extra measures is going to have the side effect slowing other illness transmissions.

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