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What Improvement? 24,000 new cases which is 4 times any other country plus 1000+ deaths

Worst day yet and not sure we have hit any peaks yet...California went back up I think with NY and NJ still bad as well as Michigan

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Ohio’s estimated peak is in about two weeks. In a truly out-of-character move, Ohio has done a really good job and got out in front of it. Peaks in two weeks are probably best case scenarios for states that took early action.

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Current peak estimate for Illinois is April 20. I hope that pulls left. It already seems like too much in Chicago. 

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57 minutes ago, MrBrett said:

There's estimates of peak dates for each state. No telling how accurate some estimates will turn out to be, but the fact there's differences you shouldn't make assumptions based on reductions in one particular state. 

There's hot spots in Michigan and Louisiana. Florida is a concern.

I welcome news regarding lower new infections, just hope the public doesn't perceive the information as a reason to lessen precautions.

Regardless, Dr Fauci has stated there will be no white flag waved saying it's all clear in terms of social distancing.  

That's exactly what happens.  Like Trump saying today its completely under control, they need far less hospital beds than they originally thought.  And they may not need all the ventilators.  People surely hear this and take it all less seriously. 

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It is funny how when times are normal one month flies by.  This month is going to be sloooooooooow.

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8 minutes ago, B&F said:

It is funny how when times are normal one month flies by.  This month is going to be sloooooooooow.

The last month actually flew by for me.  At least its been 3+ weeks since the lockdown started.  I'm definitely anxious for us to hit the peak and begin to flatline though. I need this to go away

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, FouLLine said:

Are test kits so scarce they aren't testing the dead bodies?  You'd think they'd eventually get counted into the stats.

Yes test kits are as rare as hen's teeth.  They aren't using them on the dead coming out of someone's home.  There isn't enough for the living with obvious symptoms.

Here is a cautionary tale.  Japan thought it had escaped the virus with only a few cases.  A "cluster" was quickly spotted and everyone traced back from the originating person.  Then another "cluster" etc etc was thought to have been entirely contained.  It seemed to work well.  Japan has never had social distancing or stay at home orders as a result.  The wave seemed to have passed over them pretty much unscathed.

But on the news tonight they said there now is a sudden spike of cases in Japan.  I found this online:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/asia/tokyo-coronavirus-japan-hnk-intl/index.html

The numbers are low right now but:

Quote

As of Friday, Japan had 3,329 confirmed cases and 74 deaths.

"The beginning of the burst of the infections in Spain, France, Italy, New York City -- was really like Tokyo right now," said Iwata.

He says there needs to be more testing.

As of Friday, Tokyo had tested fewer than 4,000 people in a city of 13.5 million. And just 39,466 people had been tested in this nation of 125 million, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare.

It seems Japan is now making the exact same mistakes the US had.  Far too little testing and a false sense of security that everything was under control with no real strong leadership from the government.  You can't let up on the pedal of prevention like Japan did or it could come back to bite you big time.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

That's exactly what happens.  Like Trump saying today its completely under control, they need far less hospital beds than they originally thought.  And they may not need all the ventilators.  People surely hear this and take it all less seriously. 

Yes, everyone wants to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but the message has to be crystal clear at this moment in time to assume the worst and hope for the best. Dr. Fauci has said (paraphrasing) The VIRUS will determine when we can start the road back from our despair. He's not all knowing but I'm going to trust him on the seriousness of the virus and mitigation efforts.

We know hindsight can be 20/20.  It might be difficult to look back and see as country what we could've done sooner or better. 

Edited by MrBrett

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Current peak estimate for Illinois is April 20. I hope that pulls left. It already seems like too much in Chicago. 


4/20, ain’t that a B. 

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2 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Encouraging dates but the US continues to be irresponsible on its federal response to a baffling degree. It's practically impossible to compare the US's response to one province in China. I think a reasonable projection is that stay-at-home orders will be lifted about two weeks after a state's peak. For states that don't yet have stay-at-home orders (aka morons), they're going to be in trouble in to the summer at this point.

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22 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Encouraging dates but the US continues to be irresponsible on its federal response to a baffling degree. It's practically impossible to compare the US's response to one province in China. I think a reasonable projection is that stay-at-home orders will be lifted about two weeks after a state's peak. For states that don't yet have stay-at-home orders (aka morons), they're going to be in trouble in to the summer at this point.

How did you come up with that projection?  The minimum recovery time is 2 weeks and we can sit at the peak for days.

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15 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

How did you come up with that projection?  The minimum recovery time is 2 weeks and we can sit at the peak for days.

Haha nowhere near an exact science, obviously, but I think the goal for many states is to have their healthcare system survive the “surge” during the peak. Once that peak begins to subside I think a number of weeks will be added to the stay-at-home orders before they’re relaxed. I anticipate this being in mid-May for Ohio, whose peak is projected to be around 4/21. I’m just a dude, but that is the feeling I’ve gotten from our local coverage. And I’m just talking about stay-at-home orders. Social distancing will go on indefinitely.

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6 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

Haha nowhere near an exact science, obviously, but I think the goal for many states is to have their healthcare system survive the “surge” during the peak. Once that peak begins to subside I think a number of weeks will be added to the stay-at-home orders before they’re relaxed. I anticipate this being in mid-May for Ohio, whose peak is projected to be around 4/21. I’m just a dude, but that is the feeling I’ve gotten from our local coverage. And I’m just talking about stay-at-home orders. Social distancing will go on indefinitely.

Stop listening to what they think the Peak will be. Its going to be much longer than that.

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37 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

Stock up on groceries TOMORROW. I think this week might get gnarly at the stores.


How do you mean? 

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52 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

Stock up on groceries TOMORROW. I think this week might get gnarly at the stores.

 

12 minutes ago, tucker26 said:


How do you mean? 

Well they're warning that the next 2 weeks are critical to stay out of stores and pharmacies.  As we're coming closer to peak time, you don't want to be part of that.  A lot of people may rush to stock up / hoard items.  But I don't think things will be that crazy at the stores for the 2 weeks with all these warnings telling people not to go.

 

"The next two weeks are extraordinarily important," said Birx. "This is the moment to not be going to the grocery store, not going to the pharmacy, but doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe and that means everybody doing the 6-feet distancing, washing their hands."
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826741317/federal-government-implements-relief-as-nation-reels-from-coronavirus-pandemic

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3 hours ago, Corey In Da House said:

Stock up on groceries TOMORROW. I think this week might get gnarly at the stores.

The 80 grade move right now is to order whatever you need online for delivery and let it sit in a porch or garage for 3 days and then wipe it down as you bring it in to your house. I agree with the sentiment that now is a critical time for the virus in our country. My area here in NY projects to be out of ventilators in 5-7 days. Hospitals have committees in place to deal with ethical decisions about who gets what when such events happen. Stay home ya’ll. 

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6 hours ago, Corey In Da House said:

Stock up on groceries TOMORROW. I think this week might get gnarly at the stores.

Please no.  This is the mindset that leads to stupid sheep mentality / hoarding.

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Just now, El_Chingon said:

Please no.  This is the mindset that leads to stupid sheep mentality / hoarding.

 

I'd rather do it now then have to wait in line down the road. You guys doing the delivery arent any better making them come to your home.

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15 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

I'd rather do it now then have to wait in line down the road. You guys doing the delivery arent any better making them come to your home.

If people would just observe normal consumer behavior, there would be no massive shortages in the grocery stores.  Generating panic for this week will only make scarcity worse.

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I have food here. But I wanted frozen pizza and burritos.  Online I can't get all the stuff I need to make burritos and then I'm just ordering a bunch of frozen pizza.  I'll just have to splurge on delivery pizza I guess.  Not sure I'd want to risk going to the store even though i'm safe with it.  I can't wait til I'm able to buy Cup of Noodles/Instant Lunch again too.

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22 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Like you, I am also concerned with lives.  I personally would love to know an accurate deaths per week in this country from everything and have it compared to previous years for perspective. To be crystal clear, I do not know the answer. I don't have an agenda, I just want to know.

 I've read pneumonia and flu deaths which constitute a significant number of deaths each week this time of year (every year) have plummeted significantly, leading me to believe at least some Covid deaths are being misclassified. Or it could very well be there are so many deaths that they aren't registering others?  Again, I don't know.

Also, not to downplay the severity of the very serious pandemic occurring right now, but a massive economic recession (social construct and all) will result in significant deaths too. 

 

 

It could be the number of deaths due to the flu and pneumonia could be because of social distancing. The flu is a contagion as well just not as much as COVID-19 is so the fact that people aren't interacting with each other could be a big reason flu numbers across the board are down.

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15 hours ago, MrBrett said:

There's estimates of peak dates for each state. No telling how accurate some estimates will turn out to be, but the fact there's differences you shouldn't make assumptions based on reductions in one particular state. 

There's hot spots in Michigan and Louisiana. Florida is a concern.

I welcome news regarding lower new infections, just hope the public doesn't perceive the information as a reason to lessen precautions.

Regardless, Dr Fauci has stated there will be no white flag waved saying it's all clear in terms of social distancing.  

 

 

 

 

Do you have a link for a site showing the estimated peak for each state?  Much appreciated.

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