bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

Recommended Posts

45 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

If this is accurate then Michigan will be at peak on Wednesday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Do you have a link for a site showing the estimated peak for each state?  Much appreciated.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/490856-when-will-coronaviruses-cases-peak-in-your-state

Don't have a direct link to the actual model from the University of Washington Institute of Metrics and Evaluations. The model is meant to give hospitals a way to estimate needs. The estimates were last updated April 2. 

Edited by MrBrett
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anybody know how long after the 'peak' it takes to return to normalcy? I mean, i guess its a hard question because no one minus some of Asia has begun to do so, i dont know when they reached their peak though.

New Rochelle was the 1st place in NY to really get hit, was it not? They released their last corona positive patient not too long ago. Hmm.. 

Just curious. i feel like its possible and i could be wrong that once a peak is reached things can begin to be opened up cautiously 3-4 weeks after that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, jonninho said:

Does anybody know how long after the 'peak' it takes to return to normalcy? I mean, i guess its a hard question because no one minus some of Asia has begun to do so, i dont know when they reached their peak though.

New Rochelle was the 1st place in NY to really get hit, was it not? They released their last corona positive patient not too long ago. Hmm.. 

Just curious. i feel like its possible and i could be wrong that once a peak is reached things can begin to be opened up cautiously 3-4 weeks after that.

If your definition of "normalcy" is a 100% return to pre-COVID behavior and practices... 2021? Until we get a vaccine or enough time has elapsed, there's no return to normalcy.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, markdash said:

If your definition of "normalcy" is a 100% return to pre-COVID behavior and practices... 2021? Until we get a vaccine or enough time has elapsed, there's no return to normalcy.

This seems to me to be one of those type of events where "pre-COVID behavior and practices" are changed forever to some extent.

I'd have to imagine that some people are going to be much more cognizant of things like hygiene, crowds, preservation of resources, etc for their rest of their lives based on this, much like some of the things that changed in society after 2001.

I know you're probably talking more about social distancing and businesses being open.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, jonninho said:

Does anybody know how long after the 'peak' it takes to return to normalcy? I mean, i guess its a hard question because no one minus some of Asia has begun to do so, i dont know when they reached their peak though.

New Rochelle was the 1st place in NY to really get hit, was it not? They released their last corona positive patient not too long ago. Hmm.. 

Just curious. i feel like its possible and i could be wrong that once a peak is reached things can begin to be opened up cautiously 3-4 weeks after that.

No one knows how long after peak a return to normalcy occurs and it will likely be quite variable from place to place depending on factors like population density, adherence to social distancing measures, etc. I live in NY and I would caution using New Rochelle’s results as being predictive of other areas. No one in NY has instituted the aggressive containment and testing measures that they did. They brought in the National Guard early on and set up a perimeter around the area and instituted drive through testing far earlier than most other places. IMO, they’re going to be an outlier, as well as an example of what to do if future outbreaks occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, azeri98 said:

It could be the number of deaths due to the flu and pneumonia could be because of social distancing. The flu is a contagion as well just not as much as COVID-19 is so the fact that people aren't interacting with each other could be a big reason flu numbers across the board are down.

 

That's pretty important if true. Losing 1-2.5k less people per week doesn't make up for every Coronavirus death of course, but it does make up for a decent percentage of people who would have died. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

This seems to me to be one of those type of events where "pre-COVID behavior and practices" are changed forever to some extent.

I'd have to imagine that some people are going to be much more cognizant of things like hygiene, crowds, preservation of resources, etc for their rest of their lives based on this, much like some of the things that changed in society after 2001.

I know you're probably talking more about social distancing and businesses being open.

Eventually, my best guess is that we will be able to live as openly as we did before.  It took awhile for life to get back after 9-11, and there were some permanent changes.  Eventually things like going to games or riding planes became just as normal as before.  I agree with JE7 in a sense that things like more hand washing, coughing into sleeves, and improved supply chains and delivery systems.  It will take work and effort, But hopefully it’ll be better than before in some ways.  I also agree with markdash, that this time will come at some point in 2021, with incremental improvements until then along with possible new lockdowns that will be less panicky and be better prepared for.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Once we have a vaccine I don’t see why we won’t get back to where we were.

Edited by B&F

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if this has been shared, for those interested in tracking the stats of the virus, I found this link that's updated every minute: https://ncov2019.live/data

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jonninho said:

Does anybody know how long after the 'peak' it takes to return to normalcy? I mean, i guess its a hard question because no one minus some of Asia has begun to do so, i dont know when they reached their peak though.

New Rochelle was the 1st place in NY to really get hit, was it not? They released their last corona positive patient not too long ago. Hmm.. 

Just curious. i feel like its possible and i could be wrong that once a peak is reached things can begin to be opened up cautiously 3-4 weeks after that.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/5/21208630/coronavirus-cdc-blood-test-immunity-serological-cellex

It's a complicated issue. This article is helpful explaining how we might get back to work and life in the near future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, B&F said:

Once we have a vaccine I don’t see why we won’t get back to where we were.

Probably depends on how effective the vaccine is. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, cornerback said:

What did Germany do specifically to contain it? Would that work in New York and New Jersey?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

but i would not assume something like this in the US. just Heard  some numbers. Germany has 40% of ICU beds free still. thats About 13k. thats more than italy, spain and France have in total. it is expected that after this week we will through the Peak of new patients. nobody knows, if the System holds up, but they all Sound optimistic.

Germany has 2-3 ICU beds per 1k. USA has 7-8 per 1k. so i would assume this will take far longer in the US. in addition the US wasted a month and is run by an idiot. this will factor in also. 

so, for Sports. i would assume a start with caution by mid or end of may here. for the US idk, july-maybe August? and for sure with empty Stadiums. the Trump claim i heard that there will be full stadiums in the summer is idiotic. 

 

 

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

What did Germany do specifically to contain it? Would that work in New York and New Jersey?

we shut down early and with discipline. Germans are effective when you tell them to do something, if its needed. i Heard today some beaches reopen, some states have no stay at home orders still. thats idiotic and in the end kills more People than needed. every politician who does something like that should resign immediatly. and btw, its criminal by trump not to tell his "Friends" to shut down. idk exactly, but i think only red states are open still. so it would be easy, because in other cases  they follow him blindly too.

basicly we try to get back to Phase 1. Begin of the Virus. there you are able to track down nearly every new infection and their contacts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, cornerback said:

but i would not assume something like this in the US. just Heard  some numbers. Germany has 40% of ICU beds free still. thats About 13k. thats more than italy, spain and France have in total. it is expected that after this week we will through the Peak of new patients. nobody knows, if the System holds up, but they all Sound optimistic.

Germany has 2-3 ICU beds per 1k. USA has 7-8 per 1k. so i would assume this will take far longer in the US. in addition the US wasted a month and is run by an idiot. this will factor in also. 

so, for Sports. i would assume a start with caution by mid or end of may here. for the US idk, july-maybe August? and for sure with empty Stadiums. the Trump claim i heard that there will be full stadiums in the summer is idiotic. 

 

 

 

We have the CDC and FDA which are two big bureaucratic agencies full of waste, fraud, and abuse. They did not allow testing in January for Washington State where it started and they have dropped the ball since then as well. Say what you will about Trump, you have to look at the two agencies we have to handle health crises...they both failed on all levels. Even Dr. Fauci said on Jan 20th that the US should not worry so Trump did not give the order to order millions of masks and ventilators at that time and shut everything down. Trump still is at fault as he is the leader and why you may think he is an idiot...we don't have anyone better at the moment. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cornerback said:

we shut down early and with discipline. Germans are effective when you tell them to do something, if its needed. i Heard today some beaches reopen, some states have no stay at home orders still. thats idiotic and in the end kills more People than needed. every politician who does something like that should resign immediatly. and btw, its criminal by trump not to tell his "Friends" to shut down. idk exactly, but i think only red states are open still. so it would be easy, because in other cases  they follow him blindly too.

basicly we try to get back to Phase 1. Begin of the Virus. there you are able to track down nearly every new infection and their contacts.

Yeah...most Americans will chose liberty over their life. We do not like to be told what to do at all

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Yeah...most Americans will chose liberty over their life. We do not like to be told what to do at all

trust me. many discussion here too About that. many think it was/is to strict. and many want them lifted earlier. but in the end everybody sees our very low death numbers and new infections decrease by the days. so my Feeling is we will pull through. and most will give it a week or 2 longer. even if it is proven that 2 weeks less would ve been enough.

 

Overall there will be a new normal  anyway for a year+. masks, distance, no big crowds and so on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone is talking about the vaccine, but if we come up/find with a reliable/trustworthy treatment muffing the symptoms before then. It'll make this a ton better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Yeah...most Americans will chose liberty over their life. We do not like to be told what to do at all

 

While this certainly applies to a lot of people, I do disagree with "most".

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

they both failed on all levels

 

This is true if your definition of "all levels" begins with POTUS and ends at HHS Secretary Alex Azar.  Otherwise, there's ample evidence that the agencies were trying to get the President's ear to take the threat seriously, but that he didn't:

Quote

U.S. officials began taking preliminary steps to counter a potential outbreak. By mid-January, Robert Kadlec, an Air Force officer and physician who serves as assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS, had instructed subordinates to draw up contingency plans for enforcing the Defense Production Act, a measure that enables the government to compel private companies to produce equipment or devices critical to the country’s security. Aides were bitterly divided over whether to implement the act, and nothing happened for many weeks.

On Jan. 14, Kadlec scribbled a single word in a notebook he carries: “Coronavirus!!!”

Despite the flurry of activity at lower levels of his administration, Trump was not substantially briefed by health officials about the coronavirus until Jan.18, when, while spending the weekend at Mar-a-Lago, he took a call from Azar.

Even before the heath secretary could get a word in about the virus, Trump cut him off and began criticizing Azar for his handling of an aborted federal ban on vaping products, a matter that vexed the president.

At the time, Trump was in the throes of an impeachment battle over his alleged attempt to coerce political favors from the leader of Ukraine. Acquittal seemed certain by the GOP-controlled Senate, but Trump was preoccupied with the trial, calling lawmakers late at night to rant, and making lists of perceived enemies he would seek to punish when the case against him concluded.

In hindsight, officials said, Azar could have been more forceful in urging Trump to turn at least some of his attention to a threat that would soon pose an even graver test to his presidency, a crisis that would cost American lives and consume the final year of Trump’s first term.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

This is true if your definition of "all levels" begins with POTUS and ends at HHS Secretary Alex Azar.  Otherwise, there's ample evidence that the agencies were trying to get the President's ear to take the threat seriously, but that he didn't:

 

I will counter with the following:

One of the defining features of the coronavirus pandemic has been the failure of government, especially at the federal level, to act in a wise, timely, or effective fashion. When cases of coronavirus started showing up in Washington state in January, researchers turned to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for approval to test nasal swabs but were rebuffed by bureaucrats there and at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Officials told local doctors to stop running unauthorized tests, then waited until February 29 to let biotech companies and non-government research labs develop and deploy new tests for the virus. The two main agencies charged with protecting the nation's public health screwed up from the very beginning.

 

A little more than a cryptic note that says " coronavirus"...Also curious if you were implying that the impeachment trial was purposely designed to distract the president from COVID19? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

I will counter with the following:

 

Shocking that Nick Gillespie thinks government is bad at solving problems.  Next, please inform us of what Cruella deVille thinks about the ethics of using Dalmations as clothing.

 

4 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Also curious if you were implying that the impeachment trial was purposely designed to distract the president from COVID19? 

 

Impeachment articles were filed in December, 2019, but I commend your commitment to the art of trolling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.