bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

It’s Facebook. It’s twitter. It’s not reasonable. It’s people with preconceived ideas. They’re going to blame him no matter what. I didn’t vote for him either. I took great issue with him insinuating governors who weren’t friendly or kissing up to him enough might not get medical supplies. But see, I’m a principled adult who can see right and wrong. Much of the population isn’t that and yes, you see it first hand in this thread. 

I just don't think "blame" is really all that productive right now.

Blame isn't going to flatten the curve.  It's not going to bring more ventilators.  It's not going to restore consumer confidence.

I could honestly give two poops what any pol says these days, to be candid.  I'm not going to the beach because Brian Kemp says it's cool.  I'm not going to bang down my docs door to stock up on HQL because I guess they're selling it now at the pressers.

Really I'm just at the point where I want to hear from the experts, not the suits.  They're not bringing anything to the table for me other than fodder for these types of discussions.  Their role at this point to me should be introduction of Doctor so and so and shut the heck up.  JMO.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, jonninho said:

Does anybody know how long after the 'peak' it takes to return to normalcy? I mean, i guess its a hard question because no one minus some of Asia has begun to do so, i dont know when they reached their peak though.

New Rochelle was the 1st place in NY to really get hit, was it not? They released their last corona positive patient not too long ago. Hmm.. 

Just curious. i feel like its possible and i could be wrong that once a peak is reached things can begin to be opened up cautiously 3-4 weeks after that.

 

7 hours ago, MrBrett said:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/5/21208630/coronavirus-cdc-blood-test-immunity-serological-cellex

It's a complicated issue. This article is helpful explaining how we might get back to work and life in the near future.

 

7 hours ago, FISH ON said:

Not sure if this has been shared, for those interested in tracking the stats of the virus, I found this link that's updated every minute: https://ncov2019.live/data

Wtf is wrong with you guys? How DARE you post coronavirus talk in the politics thread!!!

Edited by cs3
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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I just don't think "blame" is really all that productive right now.

Blame isn't going to flatten the curve.  It's not going to bring more ventilators.  It's not going to restore consumer confidence.

I could honestly give two poops what any pol says these days, to be candid.  I'm not going to the beach because Brian Kemp says it's cool.  I'm not going to bang down my docs door to stock up on HQL because I guess they're selling it now at the pressers.

Really I'm just at the point where I want to hear from the experts, not the suits.  They're not bringing anything to the table for me other than fodder for these types of discussions.  Their role at this point to me should be introduction of Doctor so and so and shut the heck up.  JMO.

I 100% agree. Unfortunately some people never want to let a good tragedy go to waste. This thread is full of attempts to blame and not sharing of information. 

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[ OK, tried a looser interpretation of the guidelines against politics in here since there's nothing going on baseball-wise, but it's clearly not working.  I got caught up in it myself, for which I apologize.  Going forward, let's get back to focusing on news updates and not on what we think of politicians or other posters. ]

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Yikes. These are two different hospital systems. This could be even more disastrous (and I assume happening elsewhere). 

“About 1,500 workers — including 500 nurses — are off the job at Michigan’s largest hospital system because of coronavirus symptoms.”
 

“The sick count at Beaumont comes the same day that Henry Ford Health System said it had about 600-700 workers who had tested positive for COVID-19.”

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/04/06/beaumont-workers-coronavirus-symptoms-nurses/2959250001/?fbclid=IwAR06ayQ8_cDiPDZEbR0bQ6uzC-h-4ZqrGwJvNvD3Jey5I_SNtKQzCqdWscY

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Posted (edited)

[...]

back to the topic, people keep saying that this week is going to be the “peak” week.  I’m confused at how this is the case when half the states are behind the other half- won’t the peaks be staggered?  Also, isn’t the entire point that this thing could come in waves, so wouldn’t re-opening everything after the “peak” just start it all up again? 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed continuation of politics derail.

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Manfred says he wants to play all the games in Arizona to start. 30 teams, 11 fields. 110-115 degree weather. The logistics to pull this off would be a nightmare. This is a pipe dream if you ask me.

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34 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

[...]

back to the topic, people keep saying that this week is going to be the “peak” week.  I’m confused at how this is the case when half the states are behind the other half- won’t the peaks be staggered?  Also, isn’t the entire point that this thing could come in waves, so wouldn’t re-opening everything after the “peak” just start it all up again? 

check this website for projections for each state.  There's a drop down where you can pick the state.  I checked my state (PA) and it's projected peak is April 11th.  On May 1 they project needing 114 ICU beds (out of 1,043 available) and they project zero deaths due to COVID-19 to start on May 13th.

NY has the most cases by far.  There peak is projected to be April 8th.  On May 1 they project to need 231 ICU beds out of 718 available and they project zero deaths to start on May 8th.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

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Posted (edited)
Quote

  I checked my state (PA) and it's projected peak is April 11th.  On May 1 they project needing 114 ICU beds (out of 1,043 available) and they project zero deaths due to COVID-19 to start on May 13th.

NY has the most cases by far.  There peak is projected to be April 8th.  On May 1 they project to need 231 ICU beds out of 718 available and they project zero deaths to start on May 8th.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

I don't understand how any model can project zero covid deaths, starting just 1 month from today - especially for NY. That just doesn't seem plausible at all. Even assuming the peak hits on the exact day projected, people are still going to be getting infected. They think none of them will have complications and die? Something is wrong with that model. 

Edited by cs3
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9 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Something is wrong with that model. 

 

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/03/29/the-second-derivative-of-the-time-trend-on-the-log-scale/

Quote

I have a few thoughts on this model. First, yeah, it’s curve-fitting, no more and no less. Second, if they’re gonna fit a model like this, I’d recommend they just fit it in Stan: the methodological appendix has all sorts of fragile nonlinear-least-squares stuff that we don’t really need any more. Third, I guess there’s nothing wrong with doing this sort of analysis, as long as it’s clear what the assumptions are. What the method is really doing is using the second derivative of the time trend on the log scale to estimate where we are on the curve. Once that second derivative goes negative, so the exponential growth is slowing, the model takes this as evidence that the rate of growth on the log scale will rapidly continue to go toward zero and then go negative. Fourth, yeah, what Dorman says: you can’t take the model for the asymptotic limit seriously. For example, in that methodological appendix, they say that they use the probit (“ERF”) rather than the logit curve because the probit fits the data better. That’s fine, but there’s no reason to think that the functional form at the beginning of the spread of a disease will match the functional form (or, for that matter, the parameters of the curve) at later stages. It really is the tail wagging the dog.

 

See also: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243819232950751233.html

 

 

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Looking ahead to May projections is extremely pointless to me.

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4 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Hooo boy.

So, how about them Yankees?

How bout those Mariners?  Longest they’ve lasted into April still tied for first since 2001!

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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona

Baseball in May.

Honestly, there are still many hurdles to clear, and i hope for the sake of all of us in here and the world to be quite frank, that this plan works out and is executed flawlessly. We need sports back... and if it does work out, i want a cookie from all of you who have shat on me. lol.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, jonninho said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona

Baseball in May.

Honestly, there are still many hurdles to clear, and i hope for the sake of all of us in here and the world to be quite frank, that this plan works out and is executed flawlessly. We need sports back... and if it does work out, i want a cookie from all of you who have shat on me. lol.


Kind of similar to the one you put up, but thought you might like this if you haven’t seen it https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/mlb-plan-regular-season-may-june.

personally, im against the idea, and still see a lot of problems, but sports woul be nice.  I don’t think I’ve ever been as exited for an nfl draft before.

Edited by Cesare13
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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:


Kind of similar to the one you put up, but thought you might like this if you haven’t seen it https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/mlb-plan-regular-season-may-june.

personally, im against the idea, and still see a lot of problems, but sports woul be nice.  I don’t think I’ve ever been as exited for an nfl draft before.

Per ESPN, "officials do not believe that a positive test alone would necessarily be cause to quarantine an entire team or shut down the season."

That would be a surprising take.

 

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Per ESPN, "officials do not believe that a positive test alone would necessarily be cause to quarantine an entire team or shut down the season."

That would be a surprising take.

 

That's just greed over safety and I doubt the players feel that way. I think as soon as one person in MLB gets not even a player gets covid it will be shut down especially if all the teams are in one state. The NBA shut down due to one guy getting it and it turned out more ended up getting it from just that one player.

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Just now, azeri98 said:

That's just greed over safety and I doubt the players feel that way. I think as soon as one person in MLB gets not even a player gets covid it will be shut down especially if all the teams are in one state. The NBA shut down due to one guy getting it and it turned out more ended up getting it from just that one player.

I could see some players feeling that way and some not, since they would be getting checks for games played.  Some will probably think it's worth the risk, some won't.

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No way they continue if a player gets it. They do seem hell bent on trying, so we’ll see what happens.

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[ Posts removed.  Your decision to block another user is not something the rest of the community needs to hear about. ]

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lmao there is no way there will be baseball in May under those conditions. That seems really psychologically damaging for the players and the product is very likely to be awful anyway. Just let it go MLB. Nobody benefits from no fans, 115 degree baseball games in ST ballparks where players are separated from family during what will likely be the biggest pandemic of our collective lives.

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

That's just greed over safety and I doubt the players feel that way. I think as soon as one person in MLB gets not even a player gets covid it will be shut down especially if all the teams are in one state. The NBA shut down due to one guy getting it and it turned out more ended up getting it from just that one player.

It’s an interesting topic for sure.  So far we have a handful of athletes (NBA players) who contracted Covid-19.  If you listen to Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, none of them every displayed any symptoms.  So their bodies were business as normal.  Now for them and most other athletes it will be similar.  But the tricky part is what if 26 year old Lindor has Covid-19, he’s in the locker with an old manager who it could easily spread to, whos not as likely to not have symptoms after contact with the virus.  Its above my pay grade to make decisions like that.  In the climate we are in right now I don’t think you’ll see a major sport started unless every i has been dotted and every t crossed.  There isn’t going to be rushed product to the market place.  So id be confident if they started in May/June there is a very secure and organized plan in place.

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7 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

It’s an interesting topic for sure.  So far we have a handful of athletes (NBA players) who contracted Covid-19.  If you listen to Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, none of them every displayed any symptoms.  So their bodies were business as normal.  Now for them and most other athletes it will be similar.  But the tricky part is what if 26 year old Lindor has Covid-19, he’s in the locker with an old manager who it could easily spread to, whos not as likely to not have symptoms after contact with the virus.  Its above my pay grade to make decisions like that.  In the climate we are in right now I don’t think you’ll see a major sport started unless every i has been dotted and every t crossed.  There isn’t going to be rushed product to the market place.  So id be confident if they started in May/June there is a very secure and organized plan in place.

I think it's also worth noting that with what happened in the NBA, there were 10s of thousands of fans in the stands in stadiums across the country when that happened.

It doesn't sound like whatever form baseball takes this year that will be the case.

You basically go from hundreds of thousands of people who were unaware what the risks are and were just out to watch a game to a few hundred folks who are professionals earning money to be there and know what the stakes are.

If some players don't want to play, I think that should be totally up to them and they shouldn't be penalized from a contractual standpoint (other than not earning game checks for games they don't play in).

But if some do, and they feel like it's worth it, I also think that should be up to them.  Just my .02.

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2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Per ESPN, "officials do not believe that a positive test alone would necessarily be cause to quarantine an entire team or shut down the season."

That would be a surprising take.

 

I found that interesting as well, but, according to sources, the idea has approval of both the players union and 'high ranking federal public health officials'

 

2 hours ago, azeri98 said:

That's just greed over safety and I doubt the players feel that way. I think as soon as one person in MLB gets not even a player gets covid it will be shut down especially if all the teams are in one state. The NBA shut down due to one guy getting it and it turned out more ended up getting it from just that one player.

I dont look at it as 'greed over safety' to be honest... i get why you would; the ability to earn millions. I look at it as players trying to provide the fans with something to be positive about, something to look forward to, if the athletes in their mansions are going crazy with these restrictions, im sure they can imagine the ones living in small a** apartments with none of the luxuries they have (and still being bored)

In relaiton to the NBA shutting down, yeah, it was also something new and shook the world.. times are a little different now.. and the stadium wont be full of 20k fans like the NBA arens were when that happened. Big difference in situation.
 

26 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

It’s an interesting topic for sure.  So far we have a handful of athletes (NBA players) who contracted Covid-19.  If you listen to Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, none of them every displayed any symptoms.  So their bodies were business as normal.  Now for them and most other athletes it will be similar.  But the tricky part is what if 26 year old Lindor has Covid-19, he’s in the locker with an old manager who it could easily spread to, whos not as likely to not have symptoms after contact with the virus.  Its above my pay grade to make decisions like that.  In the climate we are in right now I don’t think you’ll see a major sport started unless every i has been dotted and every t crossed.  There isn’t going to be rushed product to the market place.  So id be confident if they started in May/June there is a very secure and organized plan in place.

Agreed. If it just about money and greed, they would have started up again by now in some way and i am sure Trump would have approved. If this happens.. you better believe they have as you said a 'very secure and organized plan in place' .. well said, man.

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Is there a reason for having this thread and the other "COVID-19 impact on baseball" thread? I feel that both discussions are similar and would be better off being consolidated into one thread.

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3 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Is there a reason for having this thread and the other "COVID-19 impact on baseball" thread? I feel that both discussions are similar and would be better off being consolidated into one thread.

 

There are some who want to just read about the impact on baseball, and others who want to read about the progression of the pandemic, efforts to fight it, and other aspects that aren't strictly baseball-related.  The existence of the other thread gives the former group a thread to follow with a higher signal-to-noise ratio.

We tried a single thread for a while but it didn't work.

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