bluefrogguy

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion

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23 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I just wanted to take a minute to thank the OP @bluefrogguy and the mods for:

1) creating this thread

2) allowing it to stay afloat despite not being baseball related. 

I find this thread to be thought-provoking and informative. I think "we" do a good job of keeping it professional, and the mods do a good job of keeping it on the right track and civil. 

FU Covid

 

Thanks. I was a week ahead of the coronavirus thread in the NBA rotoworld board.  MLB fans prepare early! 

 

Looking back, in the third post on this thread I mentioned option of not playing in front of fans. Broken clock is right twice a day, as they say! (hopefully, anyway).  

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12 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

How bout those Mariners?  Longest they’ve lasted into April still tied for first since 2001!

Hey whoa. They started like 13-2 last year didn’t they?

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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

Hey whoa. They started like 13-2 last year didn’t they?

I forget I got bored of their season after their CF with his 20 pound gold chain smashing into face as he was chasing a fly ball miss timed his jump and pushed the ball over the wall for a HR.  

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13 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I forget I got bored of their season after their CF with his 20 pound gold chain smashing into face as he was chasing a fly ball miss timed his jump and pushed the ball over the wall for a HR.  

Yeah but he sure looked good doing it!

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I think the testing has got to improve to the point where they can test all personnel involved multiple times a day, with a very high degree of result accuracy, before the Arizona scenario would become plausible. Even then it won’t be easy, not impossible though. 

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2 minutes ago, TedStriker said:

Multiple times a day? Come on...

They at a minimum need a test that doesn't produce false negatives at a high clip.  Current testing in the US is a joke.

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12 minutes ago, TedStriker said:

Multiple times a day? Come on...

You thought they took a long time in between pitches before...

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

They at a minimum need a test that doesn't produce false negatives at a high clip.  Current testing in the US is a joke.

False negatives are relatively common in all respiratory infections. I doubt they're going to fix that (any time soon). Something like 1 in 3 strep tests are false negatives. From what I've read that's about the rate we're seeing for CV and not just in the US. 

Edited by fletch44
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6 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

lmao there is no way there will be baseball in May under those conditions. That seems really psychologically damaging for the players and the product is very likely to be awful anyway. Just let it go MLB. Nobody benefits from no fans, 115 degree baseball games in ST ballparks where players are separated from family during what will likely be the biggest pandemic of our collective lives.

Yeah I just wrote a tome over in the covid-19 baseball thread about that.  There are way to many bad scenarios that could happen to get serious about playing at all yet.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah I just wrote a tome over in the covid-19 baseball thread about that.  There are way to many bad scenarios that could happen to get serious about playing at all yet.

Thats the thing, no one is going to be playing yet

I fully agree with you that at this present moment, it should not proceed. Hurdles need to be cleared. Tests to be readily available and at mass quantities. First response health workers must be assured they are taken care of first. In a months time *May* .. why is this not feasable? given the number of companies and governments all working together in this fight against Corona, i dont see why it isnt possible.

So, to talk about baseball on April 7th, and discuss possible ways of making that happen logistically next month.. it isnt too soon to do so.

Edited by jonninho
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34 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah I just wrote a tome over in the covid-19 baseball thread about that.  There are way to many bad scenarios that could happen to get serious about playing at all yet.

And you may be right. But not everyone (including the people who are in the position to decide on these things) is going to focus on all the bad things that can happen, no matter how small and unlikely they are to occur. Some people are going to focus on the good things (money being one of those things) and decide that it outweighs the bad. Nobody would do anything if they focused only on the things that can go wrong. And if you aren't getting serious right now about playing two months from now then you're too late anyway. And why throw in the towel now when the landscape is likely to be much different in two months?

Absent a vaccine, this thing will be around indefinitely. A vaccine, on average, takes 20-25 years to be distributed to the country per Dr. Paul Offit (co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine). His vaccine took 26 years. He states that he believes the fastest is the mumps vaccine which took around 4 years. Even if that is wildly pessimistic, even Dr. Fauci has said that it would take at least 12-18 months and Dr. Offit said that is "amazingly optimistic". So, under the "what if something bad happens" logic, we should just cancel all sports and all non-essential activities until a vaccine hopefully arrives in 2022. We are flattening the curve precisely so that people can go back out (strategically), make a living again, and be able to receive care in a hospital if they do eventually catch this thing. This isn't a cure.

In the grand scheme of things I agree that thinking about baseball during this time is silly but here we are. And there are a lot of other people (owners and players) who have a lot to gain doing the exact same thing right now. If I were a baseball player I'd be pretty receptive to this latest idea. So I get to work in a highly contained environment with ample testing and doctors all over the place whereas everyone else has to brave it out in the wilderness and risk catching this thing at the grocery store? Not too bad. Being away from family would be the harder thing and I would understand if some of them said that is too much.

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Posted (edited)

In the end it’s too early too tell. The idea and planning for it in AZ as soon as May/June sounds a bit like of a Fyre Festival 2.0 waiting to happen. We will go on with life at some point but even Giorgio Taoakalos might think this is a stretch. 
 

Avg. temp by month in AZ is about 105 in June, 107 in July and 105 in August. Maybe it’s a cool heat. 

Edited by tucker26

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2 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

In the end it’s too early too tell. The idea and planning for it in AZ as soon as May/June sounds a bit like of a Fyre Festival 2.0 waiting to happen. We will go on with life at some point but even Giorgio Taoakalos might think this is a stretch. 
 

Avg. temp by month in AZ is about 105 in June, 107 in July and 105 in August. Maybe it’s a cool heat. 

Dry heat is a little better muggy heat.

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8 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Dry heat is a little better muggy heat.


Indeed and at about 100 the players are gonna need mobile IVs more than ventilators. Maybe they can do some sort of camelback IV. Guess games could be a 5/6 am and 9/10 pm...

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6 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

In the end it’s too early too tell. The idea and planning for it in AZ as soon as May/June sounds a bit like of a Fyre Festival 2.0 waiting to happen. We will go on with life at some point but even Giorgio Taoakalos might think this is a stretch. 
 

Avg. temp by month in AZ is about 105 in June, 107 in July and 105 in August. Maybe it’s a cool heat. 

Yep. It will be hot, no doubt about it. Grew up in Las Vegas and know the dry heat all too well (it is in fact more tolerable than humidity but still not great when it gets to 105+). 10-20 minutes at a time is fine but then you have to take a break. Fortunately, baseball has lots of breaks. So, you play a half inning in the field and then head to the dugout (or clubhouse if you aren't batting for a while) and cool off. It will take a toll on pitchers though. I could see some sort of water break (similar to what happens during an NFL timeout) occurring if an inning goes longer than 15 minutes. I'm sure the colleges and high schools and club baseball teams in Arizona have figured out how to deal with it to some degree.

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36 minutes ago, TedStriker said:

And you may be right. But not everyone (including the people who are in the position to decide on these things) is going to focus on all the bad things that can happen, no matter how small and unlikely they are to occur. Some people are going to focus on the good things (money being one of those things) and decide that it outweighs the bad. Nobody would do anything if they focused only on the things that can go wrong. And if you aren't getting serious right now about playing two months from now then you're too late anyway. And why throw in the towel now when the landscape is likely to be much different in two months?

Absent a vaccine, this thing will be around indefinitely. A vaccine, on average, takes 20-25 years to be distributed to the country per Dr. Paul Offit (co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine). His vaccine took 26 years. He states that he believes the fastest is the mumps vaccine which took around 4 years. Even if that is wildly pessimistic, even Dr. Fauci has said that it would take at least 12-18 months and Dr. Offit said that is "amazingly optimistic". So, under the "what if something bad happens" logic, we should just cancel all sports and all non-essential activities until a vaccine hopefully arrives in 2022. We are flattening the curve precisely so that people can go back out (strategically), make a living again, and be able to receive care in a hospital if they do eventually catch this thing. This isn't a cure.

In the grand scheme of things I agree that thinking about baseball during this time is silly but here we are. And there are a lot of other people (owners and players) who have a lot to gain doing the exact same thing right now. If I were a baseball player I'd be pretty receptive to this latest idea. So I get to work in a highly contained environment with ample testing and doctors all over the place whereas everyone else has to brave it out in the wilderness and risk catching this thing at the grocery store? Not too bad. Being away from family would be the harder thing and I would understand if some of them said that is too much.

 

Nice post.  I'm not saying this as an insult and I hope I don't sound self righteous, but I really hope some of you guys aren't this negative in your thinking in general.  Since we're all armchair epidemiologists, I'm tempted to be an armchair shrink maybe suggest that some of you start considering the possibility of clinical depression.  

It's no good to go through life constantly worried about what could go wrong and looking for flaws and problems.  A lot of bad stuff happens no matter what. Everyone fails a bunch. And not long from now we'll all be in the grave.  Worry and constant pessimism won't change that, but they will prevent you from tasting the good things and getting the most out of your time here. 

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1 hour ago, TedStriker said:

And you may be right. But not everyone (including the people who are in the position to decide on these things) is going to focus on all the bad things that can happen, no matter how small and unlikely they are to occur. Some people are going to focus on the good things (money being one of those things) and decide that it outweighs the bad. Nobody would do anything if they focused only on the things that can go wrong. And if you aren't getting serious right now about playing two months from now then you're too late anyway. And why throw in the towel now when the landscape is likely to be much different in two months?

Absent a vaccine, this thing will be around indefinitely. A vaccine, on average, takes 20-25 years to be distributed to the country per Dr. Paul Offit (co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine). His vaccine took 26 years. He states that he believes the fastest is the mumps vaccine which took around 4 years. Even if that is wildly pessimistic, even Dr. Fauci has said that it would take at least 12-18 months and Dr. Offit said that is "amazingly optimistic". So, under the "what if something bad happens" logic, we should just cancel all sports and all non-essential activities until a vaccine hopefully arrives in 2022. We are flattening the curve precisely so that people can go back out (strategically), make a living again, and be able to receive care in a hospital if they do eventually catch this thing. This isn't a cure.

In the grand scheme of things I agree that thinking about baseball during this time is silly but here we are. And there are a lot of other people (owners and players) who have a lot to gain doing the exact same thing right now. If I were a baseball player I'd be pretty receptive to this latest idea. So I get to work in a highly contained environment with ample testing and doctors all over the place whereas everyone else has to brave it out in the wilderness and risk catching this thing at the grocery store? Not too bad. Being away from family would be the harder thing and I would understand if some of them said that is too much.

I will say that with respect to this season, particularly if the "Arizona plan" becomes a reality, I can't say I'd blame players if they made the individual decision to "opt out" so to speak.

With things being as fresh as they are, and like you say being away from family during this crisis, you'd have to expect some significant caution.

I just think we should leave it up to them.  They're the ones taking the risk, not us.  We have our own choices to make.

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1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

 

Nice post.  I'm not saying this as an insult and I hope I don't sound self righteous, but I really hope some of you guys aren't this negative in your thinking in general.  Since we're all armchair epidemiologists, I'm tempted to be an armchair shrink maybe suggest that some of you start considering the possibility of clinical depression.  

It's no good to go through life constantly worried about what could go wrong and looking for flaws and problems.  A lot of bad stuff happens no matter what. Everyone fails a bunch. And not long from now we'll all be in the grave.  Worry and constant pessimism won't change that, but they will prevent you from tasting the good things and getting the most out of your time here. 

I think we should be friends.

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I think most opinions here that are being labeled as pessimistic are just more realistic and supported with reasonable facts. The stretches of reality seem to be coming from the optimistic arguments. We all want baseball back. But we aren’t going to will it into fruition with delusions. If Manfred and Trump could be a less cryptic it would help. However Manfred’s open ended comments inferring anything is possible and everything is being discussed leaves open a lot of hopeful interpretations that when placed next the facts don’t add up. But this is baseball...there are always miracles right?

 

giphy.gif

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3 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

I think most opinions here that are being labeled as pessimistic are just more realistic and supported with reasonable facts. The stretches of reality seem to be coming from the optimistic arguments. We all want baseball back. But we aren’t going to will it into fruition with delusions. If Manfred and Trump could be a less cryptic it would help. However Manfred’s open ended comments inferring anything is possible and everything is being discussed leaves open a lot of hopeful interpretations that when placed next the facts don’t add up. But this is baseball...there are always miracles right?

 

giphy.gif

I think that's entirely subjective.

"Optimistic, pessimistic and realistic" are just terms you're using to describe predictions about things none of us can have any clue about regarding the future.

"Realistic" to me means assessing the facts - we're not playing baseball right now, they're discussing a plan where it could happen, and no one knows if it will or not.  You're not being "more realistic" by guessing that it won't, because you don't know for a fact anymore than the guys that are guessing that it will.

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19 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think that's entirely subjective.

"Optimistic, pessimistic and realistic" are just terms you're using to describe predictions about things none of us can have any clue about regarding the future.

"Realistic" to me means assessing the facts - we're not playing baseball right now, they're discussing a plan where it could happen, and no one knows if it will or not.  You're not being "more realistic" by guessing that it won't, because you don't know for a fact anymore than the guys that are guessing that it will.


Being so desperate to think mlb is gonna be playing in 105+ heat in az compound with full medical supplies and staff and quarantined seems like a stretch. Further that the curve will have flattened enough for this all to happen by May or even June is very aggressive based on the trajectory. If it happens I’ll gladly eat my words. Would it be awesome if they did? Sure! Anything live sports would be amazing at this point. I am hoping for a Mid July start myself but still not sure they can beat the heat in AZ. 

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There are a lot of people saying different things and I'm not trying to pick on anyone individually.  There are some real concerns and, again, it's a range of possibilities for where things are in general in 2-3 months.

However, saying an otherwise viable MLB season, a multi-billion dollar operation, will shut down because it will be hot outside, or because it will be hard to replace injured players or because it will be too hard to travel to Arizona and stuff like that is almost insanely pessimistic and not really a plain observation of fact at all.  As is, "it's just baseball and it doesn't matter at times like these."  Like, bad things exist so good things shouldn't exist.  

Certainly the general practice of trying to think of problems instead of trying to think of solutions is pessimistic.  

It's possible that in 2 months time, we'll all be wearing hockey masks and mowhawks and our HOAs have morphed into battling principalities headed by brutal warlords.  That's pessimistic.  Maybe an quirky little alien will land and cure all disease. Optimistic.  I really don't know where it's headed in general terms.  But it's quite clear that the UFC, baseball here and elsewhere, the NBA and big soccer clubs are all trying to figure out how to make it work if the overall picture allows it, not searching for reasons to quit because they "know" things will be very bad in 2 months.  IMO, the former is an approach that works best with reality and in that sense, is more realistic.  

Try your best. Maybe it works maybe it doesn't.  That's how you wind up owning a team or playing in the league to begin with.  Something I wish I'd figured out at a younger age, myself.  

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4 minutes ago, GamblorLA said:

There are a lot of people saying different things and I'm not trying to pick on anyone individually.  There are some real concerns and, again, it's a range of possibilities for where things are in general in 2-3 months.

However, saying an otherwise viable MLB season, a multi-billion dollar operation, will shut down because it will be hot outside, or because it will be hard to replace injured players or because it will be too hard to travel to Arizona and stuff like that is almost insanely pessimistic and not really a plain observation of fact at all.  As is, "it's just baseball and it doesn't matter at times like these."  Like, bad things exist so good things shouldn't exist.  

Certainly the general practice of trying to think of problems instead of trying to think of solutions is pessimistic.  

It's possible that in 2 months time, we'll all be wearing hockey masks and mowhawks and our HOAs have morphed into battling principalities headed by brutal warlords.  That's pessimistic.  Maybe an quirky little alien will land and cure all disease. Optimistic.  I really don't know where it's headed in general terms.  But it's quite clear that the UFC, baseball here and elsewhere, the NBA and big soccer clubs are all trying to figure out how to make it work if the overall picture allows it, not searching for reasons to quit because they "know" things will be very bad in 2 months.  IMO, the former is an approach that works best with reality and in that sense, is more realistic.  

Try your best. Maybe it works maybe it doesn't.  That's how you wind up owning a team or playing in the league to begin with.  Something I wish I'd figured out at a younger age, myself.  

I really enjoyed your word choice in describing the post apocalyptic wasteland.  Well done.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, tucker26 said:


Being so desperate to think mlb is gonna be playing in 105+ heat in az compound with full medical supplies and staff and quarantined seems like a stretch. Further that the curve will have flattened enough for this all to happen by May or even June is very aggressive based on the trajectory. If it happens I’ll gladly eat my words. Would it be awesome if they did? Sure! Anything live sports would be amazing at this point. I am hoping for a Mid July start myself but still not sure they can beat the heat in AZ. 

Aggressive?

Absolutely.

Based on an unfounded pipe dream?

Doesn't appear so.  Hell we've got reports Fauci chimed in on it in this thread.  It's on the table.

Will it happen?

I don't know.  Neither do you.

That to me is "realism."

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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