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Sidearmer

2020 Draft/Auction Strategy Thread

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I feel like this is the first year in a while there are serious debates for the top pick. The experts have the top 3 (Acuna, Trout, Yelich) in various spots - there's no major consensus on the spot any of these guys should be in. I've seen rankings with each player at each spot. It definitely makes the #3 pick in a snake draft extremely valuable (and the #4 pick weak).

In auctions, there's going to be 3 players that are going to be priced in the elite category as opposed to prior years where really one team bid a ton on Trout and that was it. This creates some interesting dynamics where the second tier guys could be cheaper. If 3 out of 12 teams are paying top dollar, that's 2 less teams competing for the second tier. I expect this has to have some sort of effect, even if it may be a few dollars on a $40 player, if you can capitalize on that 2 or 3 times it makes a difference.

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I'm buying Trout, Acuña, Cole, deGrom.


Fill in the rest with whatever money I have left 😛

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I'm buying Trout, Acuña, Cole, deGrom.


Fill in the rest with whatever money I have left 😛

Honestly, love this strategy in 12 team public leagues. Stars and scrubs baby to the highest power. 

Can fill up a full pen usually of closers doing this no problem, and have a pretty solid team. 

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3 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

I feel like this is the first year in a while there are serious debates for the top pick. The experts have the top 3 (Acuna, Trout, Yelich) in various spots - there's no major consensus on the spot any of these guys should be in. I've seen rankings with each player at each spot. It definitely makes the #3 pick in a snake draft extremely valuable (and the #4 pick weak).

In auctions, there's going to be 3 players that are going to be priced in the elite category as opposed to prior years where really one team bid a ton on Trout and that was it. This creates some interesting dynamics where the second tier guys could be cheaper. If 3 out of 12 teams are paying top dollar, that's 2 less teams competing for the second tier. I expect this has to have some sort of effect, even if it may be a few dollars on a $40 player, if you can capitalize on that 2 or 3 times it makes a difference.

What I often see in auctions though is that those mid-first round guys depending on the timing sometimes get bumped up almost as high.  So last year Trout went for $66, but Arenado, Scherzer and Turner all went in the 60's in part because of supply/demand.   Keeper leagues it gets even worse, in our keeper league there has been a trend over the last 2-3 years to keep high priced guys.  

With drafts, I think there are around 16-18 guys I like as potential first rounders - then it kind of drops off a bit 2nd end of the 2nd round, so I think I would like to pick around 6-7.  

 

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2 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Honestly, love this strategy in 12 team public leagues. Stars and scrubs baby to the highest power. 

Can fill up a full pen usually of closers doing this no problem, and have a pretty solid team. 

 

Agree. Last year it worked well for me in a season long (auction) roto league.

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Opinion on this decision.interesting topic.

 

Do you keep your best "value" players even though it would limit your draft/auction options.

 

Would you keep a lesser "value" player if it gives you more options on draft day?

 

Example...We can keep up to 11 players in a keeper league where we start 14 hitters and 9 pitchers...My best value players if I go by kept salary versus prices published so far (Mastersball, Rotowire, etc.) Would be to keep 9 pitchers and 2 hitters.  This would mean during the auction I couldn't bid on any pitchers or nominate any pitchers.  Or would you keep a couple pitchers spots open just to be able to bid on or throw out pitchers in the draft. Keeping a couple pitchers spots open would mean keeping some players who according to prices published at this time wouldn't have as much profit.  Ideally I would make a trade but the league is pretty tough to make trades in the pre-season.

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44 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Do you keep your best "value" players even though it would limit your draft/auction options.

Pretty much.

44 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Would you keep a lesser "value" player if it gives you more options on draft day?

Depends on the player, my other keepers and who I think will be available at that position at the draft.

45 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Example...We can keep up to 11 players in a keeper league where we start 14 hitters and 9 pitchers...My best value players if I go by kept salary versus prices published so far (Mastersball, Rotowire, etc.) Would be to keep 9 pitchers and 2 hitters.  This would mean during the auction I couldn't bid on any pitchers or nominate any pitchers.  Or would you keep a couple pitchers spots open just to be able to bid on or throw out pitchers in the draft. Keeping a couple pitchers spots open would mean keeping some players who according to prices published at this time wouldn't have as much profit.  Ideally I would make a trade but the league is pretty tough to make trades in the pre-season.

Do you HAVE to keep 11 or can you keep less if you want? Unless you're in a mixed league with less than 15 teams it's tough to have 11 good value keepers. If your keepers are really that good, I wouldn't throw a pitcher back just to have a pitcher spot open at the draft.

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1 hour ago, ssmarsh said:

Pretty much.

Depends on the player, my other keepers and who I think will be available at that position at the draft.

Do you HAVE to keep 11 or can you keep less if you want? Unless you're in a mixed league with less than 15 teams it's tough to have 11 good value keepers. If your keepers are really that good, I wouldn't throw a pitcher back just to have a pitcher spot open at the draft.

Don't have to keep everyone..but everyone I have has a price on (Steamer, Rotowire, Mastersball, etc) that is at least a couple dollars higher than the salary I could keep them at.  Yes, a couple are only a few dollars (someone at a keep of $1 but projected price of $5-6)...but with inflation their prices in auction would be at minimum $4-5 more to get back.

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best value top 15 player is the way to go. if thats trout/acuna/yelich for fair value or arenado or mid/late rd guys.

ex. trout, mookie, jdm for 56-$61 vs yelich/trea/lindor/story for $36-$41 last year.

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18 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

Opinion on this decision.interesting topic.

 

Do you keep your best "value" players even though it would limit your draft/auction options.

 

Would you keep a lesser "value" player if it gives you more options on draft day?

 

Example...We can keep up to 11 players in a keeper league where we start 14 hitters and 9 pitchers...My best value players if I go by kept salary versus prices published so far (Mastersball, Rotowire, etc.) Would be to keep 9 pitchers and 2 hitters.  This would mean during the auction I couldn't bid on any pitchers or nominate any pitchers.  Or would you keep a couple pitchers spots open just to be able to bid on or throw out pitchers in the draft. Keeping a couple pitchers spots open would mean keeping some players who according to prices published at this time wouldn't have as much profit.  Ideally I would make a trade but the league is pretty tough to make trades in the pre-season.

One of the things I think this might be telling you, in that its a keeper league and your best value is in pitching is that individual leagues the value can vary (sometimes quite a bit) depending on how the league tends to spend its resources, I would be a little cautious about the 9 pitchers and while they might be value in some generator are they really a value in the actual league draft/auction?  

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I'm going to guess that 70% or more of the teams that finish top 3 in roto this year will have at least 1 top 5 Starting Pitcher,

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On 12/6/2019 at 11:00 AM, Members_Only_76 said:

I'm buying Trout, Acuña, Cole, deGrom.


Fill in the rest with whatever money I have left 😛

I'm going to stay far away from Cole in NY. I'll let someone else pay up on him.

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I’m in a 12-team keeper auction/draft hybrid. We do an auction for our active line up, then do a draft for our reserves based on placing the year before, so last place gets first pick each of the five rounds, so on and so forth. 

Personally, I like to have my team filled prior, then just call in for the reserve draft since I live out of state. Really, the way it’s done, most everyone just needs a handful of players in the auction, depending on salary cap issues.

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For those of you that have done Saves+Holds leagues what is your strategy when it comes to drafting RP? My league just switched to this format which I've never done before but I like the idea of it because I never draft closers anyway due to their volatility. It seems like there is no reason to spend on closers or really any RP until late in the draft with so many guys picking up holds. I could be mistaken but I'm curious what others generally do.

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11 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

For those of you that have done Saves+Holds leagues what is your strategy when it comes to drafting RP? My league just switched to this format which I've never done before but I like the idea of it because I never draft closers anyway due to their volatility. It seems like there is no reason to spend on closers or really any RP until late in the draft with so many guys picking up holds. I could be mistaken but I'm curious what others generally do.

If saves are on equal standing as holds, theres absolutely no reason to buy a RP early or even mid rounds in the draft. 

I prefer having Saves be more valuable than holds, like a Save is worth "2" and a hold is worth "1". 

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1 minute ago, CrypTviLL said:

If saves are on equal standing as holds, theres absolutely no reason to buy a RP early or even mid rounds in the draft. 

I prefer having Saves be more valuable than holds, like a Save is worth "2" and a hold is worth "1". 

 

That's an interesting thought and maybe we vote for something like that in the future. Since this is the first year we're all doing it I'm hoping most guys still spend early picks on elite closers leaving me the opportunity to take advantage of that.

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4 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

For those of you that have done Saves+Holds leagues what is your strategy when it comes to drafting RP? My league just switched to this format which I've never done before but I like the idea of it because I never draft closers anyway due to their volatility. It seems like there is no reason to spend on closers or really any RP until late in the draft with so many guys picking up holds. I could be mistaken but I'm curious what others generally do.

We switched from Saves to Saves+Holds two years ago. Saves and holds have equal value in our current setup. This has driven down closer prices dramatically in our league. My strategy that first year was to just wait and get middle relievers with great ratios and high K rates. However, everyone else was doing the same and I ended up with very cheap closers and won the category. Last year, closer prices rose from the previous year (but not as much as before the category adjustment). I drafted 3 middle tier closers and a top tier middle reliever. I finished top 3 in the category. So... I pay little attention to saves or hold projections or whether a guy is a closer or not and just draft the for best ratios and IP (whihc is a category in our league).  

 

One caveat is that our league has the old school roto rosters where you have 5 SP and 4 RP slots to fill. With 12 teams (48 RP slots to fill) everyone was vying for the 20-25ish viable closers. Personally, I love the rule change as it made me dig deeper into RP pool to find some gems.  

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I am considering joining a daily league for the first time.

If I reference ADP rankings I assume those are for weekly leagues.  Should I adjust the rankings for a daily league?

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14 minutes ago, B&F said:

I am considering joining a daily league for the first time.

If I reference ADP rankings I assume those are for weekly leagues.  Should I adjust the rankings for a daily league?

 

maybe a little, but not much.

 

the thing I'd consider is, guys that produce but maybe don't play full time are more valuable in daily leagues. Just an example, Nate Lowe might be a guy I take late in a daily league draft, buy maybe don't even draft in a weekly.

 

edit, also pitchers with RP and SP eligibility are more valuable.

 

Edited by Members_Only_76

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4 minutes ago, B&F said:

If I reference ADP rankings I assume those are for weekly leagues.  Should I adjust the rankings for a daily league?

 

If your league doesn't have games played / innings pitched limits, or those limits leave enough room for rotating in bench players to maximize games played, I would boost the value of multi-position eligible players a bit, since their ability to fill multiple slots is even more valuable.

The flip side of this is that Util-only players can make maximizing your games played difficult in a daily league.  That said, there's a big anti-Util-only bias in the ADP already, so maybe the lack of flexibility is worth it.  If you have 2 or more Util spots, don't worry about this at all.

If the league is deep enough, platoon bats, even short side guys, can get a boost as well, since you can play matchups with them more easily.

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1 hour ago, Chadgo1 said:

We switched from Saves to Saves+Holds two years ago. Saves and holds have equal value in our current setup. This has driven down closer prices dramatically in our league. My strategy that first year was to just wait and get middle relievers with great ratios and high K rates. However, everyone else was doing the same and I ended up with very cheap closers and won the category. Last year, closer prices rose from the previous year (but not as much as before the category adjustment). I drafted 3 middle tier closers and a top tier middle reliever. I finished top 3 in the category. So... I pay little attention to saves or hold projections or whether a guy is a closer or not and just draft the for best ratios and IP (whihc is a category in our league).  

 

One caveat is that our league has the old school roto rosters where you have 5 SP and 4 RP slots to fill. With 12 teams (48 RP slots to fill) everyone was vying for the 20-25ish viable closers. Personally, I love the rule change as it made me dig deeper into RP pool to find some gems.  


Thanks for the input. This has been my strategy even in the last few years when we used saves only. I typically ignored closers or relief pitchers until the last quarter of the draft and primarily focused on great ratios and K's. I also put emphasis on guys I thought could inherit the closer role later in the year. 

 

I think I'll do the same thing this year and I'm sure the elite closers will still go relatively early. We too have dedicated positions but they're 2SP, 2RP and 4P spots. I normally don't carry more than 1-2 bench bats so the remaining bench positions are primarily used for RP. This has allowed me to start between 5-7 RP in the daily H2H format often winning ratios and K's for the week.

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16 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

For those of you that have done Saves+Holds leagues what is your strategy when it comes to drafting RP? My league just switched to this format which I've never done before but I like the idea of it because I never draft closers anyway due to their volatility. It seems like there is no reason to spend on closers or really any RP until late in the draft with so many guys picking up holds. I could be mistaken but I'm curious what others generally do.

We have hold and saves as separate categories in my leagues but I still just punt the saves category, make sure I draft stud holds guys(who usually have pretty good ratios) so that washes and while everybody else is picking closers, I'm taking shots on bats with upside...Also, if one of my RP suddenly becomes a closer, I am usually able to flip him for something I need(a high upside SP who is struggling usually)...It works, as I am always top 3... 

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On 1/30/2020 at 7:02 AM, BostonCajun said:

For those of you that have done Saves+Holds leagues what is your strategy when it comes to drafting RP? My league just switched to this format which I've never done before but I like the idea of it because I never draft closers anyway due to their volatility. It seems like there is no reason to spend on closers or really any RP until late in the draft with so many guys picking up holds. I could be mistaken but I'm curious what others generally do.

Our league has had the discussion several times, and the thought was in our league which is typically 13 teams, sometimes 12 that having Saves + Holds would essentially turn relief pitchers into kickers - just would flood the market and in an auction keeper league, to change value of players (which we thought it would) would need to be at least a year out.  So it will always lessen the value, I think the depth of the league will determine how much.  If your talking like a 12- team "only" league (AL or NL only).  I think though in like a standard sized mixed league, probably has bigger impact on lessening the value. 

We ended up going with Save + Hold/2  So essentially a Save is worth 1 and a Hold is worth .5 

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22 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Our league has had the discussion several times, and the thought was in our league which is typically 13 teams, sometimes 12 that having Saves + Holds would essentially turn relief pitchers into kickers - just would flood the market and in an auction keeper league, to change value of players (which we thought it would) would need to be at least a year out.  So it will always lessen the value, I think the depth of the league will determine how much.  If your talking like a 12- team "only" league (AL or NL only).  I think though in like a standard sized mixed league, probably has bigger impact on lessening the value. 

We ended up going with Save + Hold/2  So essentially a Save is worth 1 and a Hold is worth .5 

 

Interesting thought for sure and I anticipate this will happen in our league as it's just a 10 team league. The value of closers is essentially going to be washed away imo. I’m sure we'll vote for a change after the season.

Edited by BostonCajun

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This year I'm going to try something new.

 

Usually I forecast what I want to try and spend at each position. This year I'm going to actually pick the players I want on my roster (with alternatives in the same price range) and really make an effort to draft only the guys I pre-pick. If the price at auction goes too high I have to pivot to my alternatives.

 

I want to take more advantage of of my favorite things about auctions.......we all have the ability to draft (or at least bid) each and every available player. 

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