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Sidearmer

2020 Draft/Auction Strategy Thread

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9 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

This year I'm going to try something new.

 

Usually I forecast what I want to try and spend at each position. This year I'm going to actually pick the players I want on my roster (with alternatives in the same price range) and really make an effort to draft only the guys I pre-pick. If the price at auction goes too high I have to pivot to my alternatives.

 

I want to take more advantage of of my favorite things about auctions.......we all have the ability to draft (or at least bid) each and every available player. 

 

Its why i love the Stars n Scrubs approach for 12 teams or shallower, especially for most posters on these forums as they usually are good at playing the WW throughout the year

 

lets you own the fun guys that are always in highlights, and then your skill finding good bargains and breakout WW guys can fill the rest of your roster

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2 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

This year I'm going to try something new.

 

Usually I forecast what I want to try and spend at each position. This year I'm going to actually pick the players I want on my roster (with alternatives in the same price range) and really make an effort to draft only the guys I pre-pick. If the price at auction goes too high I have to pivot to my alternatives.

 

I want to take more advantage of of my favorite things about auctions.......we all have the ability to draft (or at least bid) each and every available player. 

That is how I always approach auctions.  Target player with an approximate price and have alternates if that doesn't work out.  I try to be realistic on the who's and how much and i dont always get all the players I'm targeting but I get my fair share.

 

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9 minutes ago, jb_power said:

That is how I always approach auctions.  Target player with an approximate price and have alternates if that doesn't work out.  I try to be realistic on the who's and how much and i dont always get all the players I'm targeting but I get my fair share.

 

 

I've done it loosely in the past. I’m going to really stick to it this year and see how it turns out. I’ve allowed myself to go off track previously and it works out ok sometimes but going to be more disciplined with my plan this year. No more risky nominations or bidding up and getting stuck with players I didn’t want. May require a more sober approach on draft day. 🍺 😂 

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The problem with auctions is that you can not practice them.  Mock draft is useless.  The top players go for insane money then everyone goes away.

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2 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

The problem with auctions is that you can not practice them.  Mock draft is useless.  The top players go for insane money then everyone goes away.

Sounds like amateur hour. 

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Just curious on thoughts for AL/NL only 12 team leagues:

1) Do superstar players like Trout (AL Only) go for MORE than their average ~$60? Like, should I expect them to go for $75 due to how rare they are? 

2) Any guidance on how to spend your money in AL/NL Only? There's obviously big drop offs, would it be better to spend all/most of your money on players that are good/elite and buy $1 flyers? or is a balanced approach more suited to AL/NL only?

3) Any other tips for AL/NL Only auctions?

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I think 2nd base is deep enough with Lowe, Lux, La Stella Arraez guys there. SP/RP are a headache this year RP especially. I like the middle guys personally with Liam Hendriks, Taylor Rogers,Ken Giles Brandon Workman, Alex Colome. I dont trust Kenley Jansen, and Edwin Diaz might not even be the closer. I'm good on not paying up for Hader/Yates/Chapman; I would rather get Realmuto than any of those 3 if im going for positional advantage.

Edited by Corey In Da House

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Spend $1 on a catcher, $2 if your getting 2. No more than $5-10 on closers/ relievers total but be active on wire. 60/40 hitting pitch split. Get 2 aces. Never bid up guys you wouldn't be happy being stuck with. In live drafts leave a fake player list of guys you "want" visible to other managers. They will peak trust me. 

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On 2/7/2020 at 8:02 AM, CrypTviLL said:

Just curious on thoughts for AL/NL only 12 team leagues:

1) Do superstar players like Trout (AL Only) go for MORE than their average ~$60? Like, should I expect them to go for $75 due to how rare they are? 

2) Any guidance on how to spend your money in AL/NL Only? There's obviously big drop offs, would it be better to spend all/most of your money on players that are good/elite and buy $1 flyers? or is a balanced approach more suited to AL/NL only?

3) Any other tips for AL/NL Only auctions?

Still super curious on hearing opinions here. Anyone done any AL/NL only auctions with 12 or so teams before? 

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3 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Still super curious on hearing opinions here. Anyone done any AL/NL only auctions with 12 or so teams before? 

The top couple guys will go for a little more but not a ton.  I usually avoid the top guys, because in a AL or NL only league if those guys do get hurt..usually your depth isn't good enough to make up for it.

I usually avoid the Stars/scrubs approach.  Hit up the $10-25 players so you have solid stats from everywhere.  Depending on your league setup if you use 5 OFs, outfield is actually a tough position to fill.  I usually try to get a good solid 5 outfielders and if you want to have a few cheaper players..leave that for MI or CI.

 

I focus on guys who provide both HRs and SB and avoid the guys who dominate in a category..seems like the huge HR guys and big SB guys go for too much.  I end up with a bunch of guys who can steal around 10, instead of getting a Mondesi / Mallex Smith type guys.

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Here's another question I'll pose to this thread:

In the deeper Roto Auction drafts (Let's say the standard 15 team, deeper rosters (i.e. CI+MI+5 OF type rosters), how do you deal with closers? Let's say its 5x5 for example.

I, for the life of me, cannot get myself to spend $15+ on a closer. I can't even spend $11+ on a closer. I'm so used to Yahoo H2h pubs where I spend like $2 on each closer at the end of the draft leaving with like 6 low end closers and winning saves every week. It feels like such a lose of funds paying up for a closer.

However, in 15 team roto leagues its a really challenging predicament. First, you can't just punt saves in roto. Second, with 15 teams closers are going to be in high demand by at least a handful of teams who seek to corner the market.

Do you play the game and buy a closer for $15+? How do you approach this situation?

 

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Does anyone know of any FREE mock draft servicers? I use Yahoo currently, but it's limited to 12 team standard positions. I need AL/NL Only auctions and 15 team deep roster auctions. I don't even care if it's 14 other bots with me, just want a good idea of how much i can stretch my money.

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This is for deep leagues or weekly leagues like NFBC but as I was digging into SP's last night and this morning I found a Frankenstein Ace. You take Marquez who has a ADP of 170 and is the 69th P of the board and you only use him on the road, you take Lucchesi adp of 227 and is the 91st P off the board and you only use him at home and finally you take Caleb Smith adp of 238 and is the 94th P off the board and use him only at home. Add these 3 together and you just acquired a low end SP1 or a high end SP2.

 

*ADP is from 23 NFBC Rotowire Online Championships.

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51 minutes ago, turner46 said:

This is for deep leagues or weekly leagues like NFBC but as I was digging into SP's last night and this morning I found a Frankenstein Ace. You take Marquez who has a ADP of 170 and is the 69th P of the board and you only use him on the road, you take Lucchesi adp of 227 and is the 91st P off the board and you only use him at home and finally you take Caleb Smith adp of 238 and is the 94th P off the board and use him only at home. Add these 3 together and you just acquired a low end SP1 or a high end SP2.

 

*ADP is from 23 NFBC Rotowire Online Championships.

 

That's 3 roster spots for 1 or 2 starts a week, seems a little too pricey to me.

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11 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

That's 3 roster spots for 1 or 2 starts a week, seems a little too pricey to me.

 

Format dependent, in a daily league and/or league with shallow benches I agree but deep league or weekly I don't think it is pricey at all.

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On 2/7/2020 at 7:02 AM, CrypTviLL said:

Just curious on thoughts for AL/NL only 12 team leagues:

1) Do superstar players like Trout (AL Only) go for MORE than their average ~$60? Like, should I expect them to go for $75 due to how rare they are? 

2) Any guidance on how to spend your money in AL/NL Only? There's obviously big drop offs, would it be better to spend all/most of your money on players that are good/elite and buy $1 flyers? or is a balanced approach more suited to AL/NL only?

3) Any other tips for AL/NL Only auctions?

I've been in a 10 team NL only league for several years, and would not suggest stars/scrubs at all. Especially if it's 12 teams, I can only imagine what waivers will look like in June. It's a boring strategy, but on offense wait on the undervalued old guys that hit in the middle of lineups. The 2/3/4 hitters on the Marlins and Giants will be very valuable and probably cheap. Piling up AB's is the name of the game on offense. I'd probably tilt the pitcher/hitter $ split more towards pitching than you would in a mixed league. It's a keep 15 league, so that may skew it a little, but the last few years the top hitter went $35-$40 with Scherzer going over $45 for three straight years. Scherzer was on the winning team two of those years. I wouldn't leave the auction with anything less than Corbin as my SP1, and even that's pushing it. 

 

If it's a 1 catcher league, then it's $1 for a catcher. If it's two then I'd pay for two starters(pile up AB's). I still don't pay for saves, get one for $10ish and play waivers, but I may rethink that with how saves are going. Might be wise to get one that is "for sure" rather than pissing away $10 on a failed closer.   

Edited by mavsfan23
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5 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

I've been in a 10 team NL only league for several years, and would not suggest stars/scrubs at all. Especially if it's 12 teams, I can only imagine what waivers will look like in June. It's a boring strategy, but on offense wait on the undervalued old guys that hit in the middle of lineups. The 2/3/4 hitters on the Marlins and Giants will be very valuable and probably cheap. Piling up AB's is the name of the game on offense. I'd probably tilt the pitcher/hitter $ split more towards pitching than you would in a mixed league. It's a keep 15 league, so that may skew it a little, but the last few years the top hitter went $35-$40 with Scherzer going over $45 for three straight years. Scherzer was on the winning team two of those years. I wouldn't leave the auction with anything less than Corbin as my SP1, and even that's pushing it. 

 

If it's a 1 catcher league, then it's $1 for a catcher. If it's two then I'd pay for two starters(pile up AB's). I still don't pay for saves, get one for $10ish and play waivers, but I may rethink that with how saves are going. Might be wise to get one that is "for sure" rather than pissing away $10 on a failed closer.   

Really appreciate this advice. It sounds very logical. Pay for the pitchers, get the batters with playing time. Cheers

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On 2/4/2020 at 10:36 PM, KingJoffrey said:

No just Yahoo


I’ll still take Yahoo over the others I’ve used. 

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On 1/30/2020 at 10:02 AM, BostonCajun said:

For those of you that have done Saves+Holds leagues what is your strategy when it comes to drafting RP? My league just switched to this format which I've never done before but I like the idea of it because I never draft closers anyway due to their volatility. It seems like there is no reason to spend on closers or really any RP until late in the draft with so many guys picking up holds. I could be mistaken but I'm curious what others generally do.

When my league went to saves + holds back in the mid 2000s, I loaded up on 8th inning guys for next to nothing and won the category going away. We voted to change it the next season. We revised the category to "saves + holds/2 - blown saves" which gives closers more worth than set-up pitchers.

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I created a spread sheet almost 20 years ago now, and have won or placed 2'nd (11) times, and ONLY finished out of the $ twice since then... 18/20 payouts.

12 team mixed roto keeper that is a live auction. I too wondered how I could possibly predict what players would be sold for, but realized MOST owners were reading the same online info, predominately the top searches on google for "mixed auction values"... so It became clear that if I gathered the mean average values from a few sites, tweaked them to my given league tendencies, and raised them by about %10 to be safe... I'd have a decnet baseline value to assign to each player up for auction on a given year. NOW, this is only half the equation! The real breakthrough was simply plugging in the ACTUAL data from my league history. I take the last 5 years of the top (4) finishers in each category, and establish a "Magic Number".. IE, a mean average that becomes the # I'm shooting for in each category. 5 years of historical data has proven worthy to eliminate oddities on any given year, but clearly illustrates MLB spikes or drops for a given category and one can see a pattern to tweak said Magic Number if needed. 

 

So bottom line, I created self calculating cells that add each row of my projections when plugging in players (my keepers are in a different font and color), and the goal is to keep fiddling w/ players and their projected values until that ROW (category) reaches or exceeds my magic number. Obviously it's easier to predict hitting than pitching, but it works none the less. 18 of 20 years getting paid is proof enough for me! 

 

I will usually put my top target at a given position in bold, then 3-4 other similar players after his name... (then the trick is I put BARGAIN/SLEEPER players that hide in a pop up box when I hover my curser over the targeted players cell. This is important for flexibilities sake, so when a player you didn't expect to be a massive bargain is there to be bought cheaply, or much more than you were willing to spend, (yet still a huge discount) you can just grab a "bargain" guy on your secret list later. The $260 active salary row is constantly showing you how plus/minus you are as the auction is ongoing, so it's not a meltdown scenario if you reach for an expensive guy you didn't plan on getting, and conversely, if you get a sweet bargain mid draft you can quickly see you have a surplus and reach for a stud you didn't plan on getting. 

 

Not sure this is worded so you guys can understand my madness, but personally I don't waste brain power trying to write down or keep track of other owners current monies, positions available/filled, none of that ****! I focus %100 on my team... I've got ALL my backup plans in place laid out right in front of me, and while the stress and chaos of the live auction seems to consume most other owners to the point of paralysis by analysis... I simply keep a cold beer in front of me and keep my cool. 😎 

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To clarify my above post, the 3-4 players I list after my targeted player are obviously protected to have "similar" stats and auction price. That said, sometimes Player A may be +15 in SB's, vs. Player B being + 25 in RBI's... so when plugging in players, if I wind up considerably over my "Magic Number" in SB's, but a little thin in RBI's, it's obvious I should switch my "target player" to Player B and predictably gain in both RBI's and HR's hopefully. 

I may have a few guys I'm dead set on "BFF/ Homer" drafting, but most guys are flexible and I'm not going to panic when my "target player" sells for $8 over what I've deemed he's worth. At that point, I'm literally staring at 3-4 other guys I'm happy to have providing I don't vastly overpay and screw up all the homework I've done. 

I'n all honesty, I can usually complete the spreadsheet in a bout 2 hours, but I will spend many weeks just reading articles and looking for trends before I actually plug names and values into the spread sheet. (My biggest trick, is we draft about a week before MLB games start, so I do a final "value" check of my #'s vs. the LABR mixed results. I find the experts know their ****, and any last min risers or fallers can be accounted for.) Surprisingly, my auction values don't differ too much by and large, as "they" probably use the internet along w/ us average Joes. 

Edited by LarryChip10
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7 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


I’ll still take Yahoo over the others I’ve used. 

I'm a yahoo guy too, tried ESPN last year, hated it

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Ok guys, some more fun questions to throw out there:

1) Let's say you are in a deep league, perhaps an AL only 12 teamer. You sort of have an eye on drafting a certain catcher like a Grandal or Sanchez to get a head of the pack. 

a) Do you nominate this catcher first in the draft, early on, in hopes to get him at a fair or below draft-valued price, I.e. to "shock" the room when the room hasn't aligned to the values?

OR b) do you let his nomination fall as far as possible so that theres less money on the board. 

I think option a is the best, but it's very risky if people are up and spending early. It can backfire and soon the $14 Grandal is going for $22. But if you let B happen then everybody ends up knowing where prices are going to be and can adjust to make sure they spend the extra $$$ on their catchers.

 

 

2) In the 15 team Roto auctions, what the hell are you doing/going to spend on RP's? You *need* to get at least 1 solid RP in this type of league and it's probably an aim to have: 1 good/elite, 1 good/has a job, and 1 dart throw in this style of league. Is that right?

How do you balance your team? 

For me any tips would be good here because I feel this might be the *best* style of league and I plan on doing a few of these leagues this year. I'm used to the 12 team Y! shallow auctions where I load up on stars and scrubs so it's going to be VERY difficult for me to hold my trigger finger when I see stars going for reasonable prices. 

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