Sign in to follow this  
Sidearmer

2020 Draft/Auction Strategy Thread

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, CrypTviLL said:

Ok guys, some more fun questions to throw out there:

1) Let's say you are in a deep league, perhaps an AL only 12 teamer. You sort of have an eye on drafting a certain catcher like a Grandal or Sanchez to get a head of the pack. 

a) Do you nominate this catcher first in the draft, early on, in hopes to get him at a fair or below draft-valued price, I.e. to "shock" the room when the room hasn't aligned to the values?

OR b) do you let his nomination fall as far as possible so that theres less money on the board. 

I think option a is the best, but it's very risky if people are up and spending early. It can backfire and soon the $14 Grandal is going for $22. But if you let B happen then everybody ends up knowing where prices are going to be and can adjust to make sure they spend the extra $$$ on their catchers.

 

This is always a tough one for me. Its so hard to tell and can definitely backfire on you if you are targeting a specific guy. From my experience I've seen it work best with closers. I would nominate a closer I like early and try to get him cheap. When it works, its great when teams are fighting for closers later on and worse guys go for more. If it backfires, you pass and have many more options as closers are pretty top heavy this year. At same time, if the strategy backfires, you are making someone else overpay for closers. Overall its a good strategy but I only do it when I have interest in more than just 1 or 2 top guys at a weak position. So I don't think it is worth the risk to do that at catcher.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I say it every year.  My one absolute no no is drafting closers.   Blake treinen and Edwin Diaz ..end of story. 

If I can start a closer run, I would.  The guy I get would be way better  than the guy drafted like only 8 picks later.  I never start these runs though because there are always useable, reliable guys available.  I’m certainly not gonna jump in at the tail end of one,  the value would be awful.  Without fail, I draft guys late and work the wire and end up in the top third in saves.  This forum really helps.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I say it every year.  My one absolute no no is drafting closers.   Blake treinen and Edwin Diaz ..end of story. 

If I can start a closer run, I would.  The guy I get would be way better  than the guy drafted like only 8 picks later.  I never start these runs though because there are always useable, reliable guys available.  I’m certainly not gonna jump in at the tail end of one,  the value would be awful.  Without fail, I draft guys late and work the wire and end up in the top third in saves.  This forum really helps.

That doesn't work if you play in deep enough leagues (15 team Roto leagues with semi-deep rosters or 10/12 team AL/NL only leagues for instance).

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

That doesn't work if you play in deep enough leagues (15 team Roto leagues with semi-deep rosters or 10/12 team AL/NL only leagues for instance).

 

Good point.  I do tend to forget that everyone on these boards isn’t in my league at times.  

Nevertheless, isn’t the opportunity cost of investing in closers in any type of setting somewhat comparable? I’d figure the scarcity of any offensive position would follow a somewhat similar price adjustment for “only” leagues, but the potential of absolute failure to be much less.  That is to say, although it’s harder to find closers on waivers in deep leagues, I’m guessing they are risky and over priced there as well ( admitingly, I stick to 12 team full leaguers so don’t really know.)  In all formats, I can see bottom of the barrel types that are taken late or cheap to be a great potential for value.

Edited by Cesare13
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not averse to jumping into the middle or end of a closer run if the guy I want it still on the board ... especially if closers I have ranked below him are being selected.

I won't ever start the closer run as I never target the Top 5 via ADP

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

That doesn't work if you play in deep enough leagues (15 team Roto leagues with semi-deep rosters or 10/12 team AL/NL only leagues for instance).

 


Not true. Didn’t even draft a “closer” in my AL only league. Won my league. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:


Not true. Didn’t even draft a “closer” in my AL only league. Won my league. 

Is it a roto league? You can get by in a H2H without it, I find it hard to believe you won a competitive roto league with a big 0 in saves. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

That is to say, although it’s harder to find closers on waivers in deep leagues, I’m guessing they are risky and over priced there as wel

Problem is, in Roto leagues you can't take a 0 in saves, so if you don't pay for closers in the draft and don't get incredibly lucky with mid relievers turning into closers you are screwed from winning the league. H2H leagues you can get away with punting Saves. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Problem is, in Roto leagues you can't take a 0 in saves, so if you don't pay for closers in the draft and don't get incredibly lucky with mid relievers turning into closers you are screwed from winning the league. H2H leagues you can get away with punting Saves. 


I will be shooting for one solid closer (e.g. Liam or Rogers) and one or two cheap closers (e.g. Kintzler or Magill). 
 

again I know certain strategies are league dependent. I’m talking average size (12 team) and Roto but even in h2h because you leave less margin for error when punting saves, you have to really hit well on other cats and make sure to win those frequently. 
 

Plus it’s fun to speculate and chase the next good source of saves. But I will say I’d rather bank on a solid reliever than a shaky closer. Better to lose 1 cat than 3 or 4. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Is it a roto league? You can get by in a H2H without it, I find it hard to believe you won a competitive roto league with a big 0 in saves. 


I never said I got a 0. I said I didn’t draft a “closer”, or at least a projected closer. I speculate on closers and last year I drafted Rogers and Pagan (since I had Castillo for ratio help). Then I grabbed Hendriks and Robles off waivers as well. 
 

Bottom line is I never pay for closers. I’ll speculate on guys for $1 and work the waiver wire. Those $1 relievers if they don’t close usually help out in ratios and K’s. 

Edited by Sonny_D
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

h2h will always punt saves outside top tier closers going for 10-13 bucks then i might pivot. rolling with luzardo and urias at rp as ur sp4/5 or sp5/6 looks really nice on paper. gives you extra roster spots not having to burn 3-4 roster spots on closers. (can easily burn roster spots on player like ohtani sp or dustin may or whatever luxury you want.  gives you extra money for bats/sp. think of it this way. you probably spend 30+ on closers if you get one top tier guy and another 2 decent guys. thats basically a top 20 player like jo ram or sp1 like clevinger.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody been playing snake keeper league? Our league is newly added keepers and we keep only 3 but a lot of top 30 players are kept.

 

What are some strategies?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, fingy said:

Anybody been playing snake keeper league? Our league is newly added keepers and we keep only 3 but a lot of top 30 players are kept.

 

What are some strategies?

Need a little more info: Head to Head, Roto, some categories to answer accurately 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Sonny_D said:


I never said I got a 0. I said I didn’t draft a “closer”, or at least a projected closer. I speculate on closers and last year I drafted Rogers and Pagan (since I had Castillo for ratio help). Then I grabbed Hendriks and Robles off waivers as well. 
 

Bottom line is I never pay for closers. I’ll speculate on guys for $1 and work the waiver wire. Those $1 relievers if they don’t close usually help out in ratios and K’s. 

This is how its done. I drafted Greene for $1 and Hirano $1 who didnt pan out. Finished 2nd in saves working the wire. 12 teamer though.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Need a little more info: Head to Head, Roto, some categories to answer accurately 

Its h2h 12 teams 24 rounds. So it is not that deep. 
 

Basically about half the players in top 50 are gone. From last years experience, I think it should be routine (go for solid picks) snake draft til about rd 6ish, then I would go for those high upside picks (what I think normally happens near round 10 in redraft) bc talent pool is already quite depleted due to keepers.
 

My rationale is since it isnt so deep, it isnt impossible to find decent streaming options (batter or pitcher) or breakouts as they happen. So its worth the risk of picks busting rather than going for “boring” guys later in draft that helps teams weakness.
 

Only caveat is we are limited to 3 adds per week with no P slots. Which I think raises value of SPs compared to conventional/main stream settings that can stream hard/stack elite RPs. Plus we have BB as cats for both hitter/pitcher. And there arent as many pitchers that have good BB rate with decent K rate vs just good K rate.

 

 

Edited by fingy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:


I will be shooting for one solid closer (e.g. Liam or Rogers) and one or two cheap closers (e.g. Kintzler or Magill). 
 

again I know certain strategies are league dependent. I’m talking average size (12 team) and Roto but even in h2h because you leave less margin for error when punting saves, you have to really hit well on other cats and make sure to win those frequently. 
 

Plus it’s fun to speculate and chase the next good source of saves. But I will say I’d rather bank on a solid reliever than a shaky closer. Better to lose 1 cat than 3 or 4. 

Take it back!  He’s an absolute bum!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

I never said I got a 0. I said I didn’t draft a “closer”, or at least a projected closer. I speculate on closers and last year I drafted Rogers and Pagan (since I had Castillo for ratio help). Then I grabbed Hendriks and Robles off waivers as well. 
 

Bottom line is I never pay for closers. I’ll speculate on guys for $1 and work the waiver wire. Those $1 relievers if they don’t close usually help out in ratios and K’s. 

 

In some competitive leagues this is impossible. When you have 12 or more owners who are just as adept and into the market its tough to get even 1 nice closer off waivers. You hit on 3 elite closers for essentially free. That's impossible for most fantasy players.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best year to grab Trout at auction IMO.

Because others are considering Yelich and Acuna over him due to his drop in steals, his auction price may not be as high (league dependent obviously). 

Trout's steals fell because of nursing injury, not decline in skills/speed. I'm confident they bounce back.

Even if they didn't he's an upgrade with Rendon added to the lineup starved for other hitters.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

In some competitive leagues this is impossible. When you have 12 or more owners who are just as adept and into the market its tough to get even 1 nice closer off waivers. You hit on 3 elite closers for essentially free. That's impossible for most fantasy players.

 

For me closer pickups are incredibly league specific.  Size, size of bench, daily.weekly pickups, daily/weekly lineups, manager tendencies, manager quality/activity are huge factors. 

I have one league with weekly lineups/daily transactions where it is really easy to get closers-in-waiting when the incumbent struggles and thus it isn't essential to buy saves at the auction for more than the first 1-2 months of production.  League has short benches, weekly setting for lineups means there are few non-closers rostered, and the owners typically invest a fair amount in starting pitchers.   So here, I draft closers as much based on their ability to contribute to ERA/WHIP as saves because you can almost always find saves on the wire over course of a season.

I have another league, same size, similar (though overall a bit lower) quality of owner, big benches and daily lineups where there's long been a fixation on closers and LIMA-like approaches and it's super challenging to add saves from the wire many years.   There's a lot of setup relievers rostered, so odds are the 'next in line' closer is already on someone's roster.  There's an in-season cap so you can't just buy big on guys when the answer is obvious.  If you don't draft saves here, you likely have to pay a premium in trade or get really lucky on the wire---some years you can, others you simply can't.   

 

The draft approach just needs to be very different for these two scenarios.  All to say that while league quality matters, I do think other settings have a huge impact too.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/9/2020 at 11:51 AM, turner46 said:

This is for deep leagues or weekly leagues like NFBC but as I was digging into SP's last night and this morning I found a Frankenstein Ace. You take Marquez who has a ADP of 170 and is the 69th P of the board and you only use him on the road, you take Lucchesi adp of 227 and is the 91st P off the board and you only use him at home and finally you take Caleb Smith adp of 238 and is the 94th P off the board and use him only at home. Add these 3 together and you just acquired a low end SP1 or a high end SP2.

 

*ADP is from 23 NFBC Rotowire Online Championships.

 

You can add Steven Matz at home to this list, 2.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 over 89.2 IP.

ADP from 28 Rotowire Online Championships is 295, 117th P

Edited by turner46
adding matz adp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, fingy said:

Its h2h 12 teams 24 rounds. So it is not that deep. 
 

Basically about half the players in top 50 are gone. From last years experience, I think it should be routine (go for solid picks) snake draft til about rd 6ish, then I would go for those high upside picks (what I think normally happens near round 10 in redraft) bc talent pool is already quite depleted due to keepers.
 

My rationale is since it isnt so deep, it isnt impossible to find decent streaming options (batter or pitcher) or breakouts as they happen. So its worth the risk of picks busting rather than going for “boring” guys later in draft that helps teams weakness.
 

Only caveat is we are limited to 3 adds per week with no P slots. Which I think raises value of SPs compared to conventional/main stream settings that can stream hard/stack elite RPs. Plus we have BB as cats for both hitter/pitcher. And there arent as many pitchers that have good BB rate with decent K rate vs just good K rate.

 

 

I used to have a league like this, hopefully you have 3 keepers with a solid floor and rounds 4 and 5 kinda stay in the mindset, then shoot for upside 6 through 10...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I play in a ten team H2H league. But, it is a very arms heavy league. Though I wouldn't call the other owners unintelligent, the tendency to draft pitchers vs hitters is substantial. In the past 5 years, I have usually gone bat heavy, looking to exploit this arms tendency. I usually make the playoffs, but have not won yet. I'm thinking of trying to draft as many of the top 20 sp's before I start drafting any other position players. Crazy?

Some additional info that may or may not help you get a feel for my league: last year, Trea Turner was drafted in (I think) the 5th or 6th round. Jorge Soler (639), Trey Mancini (603), Eduardo Escobar (603), Ketel Marte (596), Matt Chapman (574) and Austin Meadows (547) were all players that were either undrafted, or drafted and dropped. I don't think any of them were permanently off the waiver wire until after 5/15. The last 3 years, on average, there are 43 batters that have between 500-650 points. I'd say that usually 25% of them are FA's for at least the first month or two of the season.

Just trying to get some input before settling in on my draft strategy. Thanks in advance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, twentyone said:

I play in a ten team H2H league. But, it is a very arms heavy league. Though I wouldn't call the other owners unintelligent, the tendency to draft pitchers vs hitters is substantial. In the past 5 years, I have usually gone bat heavy, looking to exploit this arms tendency. I usually make the playoffs, but have not won yet. I'm thinking of trying to draft as many of the top 20 sp's before I start drafting any other position players. Crazy?

Some additional info that may or may not help you get a feel for my league: last year, Trea Turner was drafted in (I think) the 5th or 6th round. Jorge Soler (639), Trey Mancini (603), Eduardo Escobar (603), Ketel Marte (596), Matt Chapman (574) and Austin Meadows (547) were all players that were either undrafted, or drafted and dropped. I don't think any of them were permanently off the waiver wire until after 5/15. The last 3 years, on average, there are 43 batters that have between 500-650 points. I'd say that usually 25% of them are FA's for at least the first month or two of the season.

Just trying to get some input before settling in on my draft strategy. Thanks in advance.

 

It doesn't sound like your competition is unintelligent at all.  In a points league starting pitchers are much more valuable than in standard roto.  You should be spending more than typical roto prices on them, and you should have more of them (so you can stream).

** Note, obviously this depends on the specific points assigned to each category but as a general rule, it is well known that points leagues push up the values of pitchers, so it is not surprising that your competition knows this...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thanks. i feel more justified in what i'm thinking about doing. sounds like i should have been taking a different approach sooner. i've just thought that if i'm loading up on 550 points+ bats, while everyone else is taking arms, that i should win each have a high probability to win each week because my bats will be outscoring their bats, and we start more hitters than we do pitchers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

 

It doesn't sound like your competition is unintelligent at all.  In a points league starting pitchers are much more valuable than in standard roto.  You should be spending more than typical roto prices on them, and you should have more of them (so you can stream).

** Note, obviously this depends on the specific points assigned to each category but as a general rule, it is well known that points leagues push up the values of pitchers, so it is not surprising that your competition knows this...

 

I agree with this. I did a points league for the first time last year (h2h), and I had a stud hitting lineup. I thought I'd have a great season. And then I realized that in a points league, it's all about the SPs. Worked the heck out of that team. Lol. Not trying to be all CSB...just pointing out my agreement that points leagues seem to be more geared towards SPs than any other position. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.