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2020 Draft/Auction Strategy Thread

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7 hours ago, twentyone said:

I play in a ten team H2H league. But, it is a very arms heavy league. Though I wouldn't call the other owners unintelligent, the tendency to draft pitchers vs hitters is substantial. In the past 5 years, I have usually gone bat heavy, looking to exploit this arms tendency. I usually make the playoffs, but have not won yet. I'm thinking of trying to draft as many of the top 20 sp's before I start drafting any other position players. Crazy?

Some additional info that may or may not help you get a feel for my league: last year, Trea Turner was drafted in (I think) the 5th or 6th round. Jorge Soler (639), Trey Mancini (603), Eduardo Escobar (603), Ketel Marte (596), Matt Chapman (574) and Austin Meadows (547) were all players that were either undrafted, or drafted and dropped. I don't think any of them were permanently off the waiver wire until after 5/15. The last 3 years, on average, there are 43 batters that have between 500-650 points. I'd say that usually 25% of them are FA's for at least the first month or two of the season.

Just trying to get some input before settling in on my draft strategy. Thanks in advance.

You are doing it right if it's not a points league...I always go with bats over pitching and it hasn't failed me yet: I have never payed in a points league though

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1 hour ago, twentyone said:

thanks. i feel more justified in what i'm thinking about doing. sounds like i should have been taking a different approach sooner. i've just thought that if i'm loading up on 550 points+ bats, while everyone else is taking arms, that i should win each have a high probability to win each week because my bats will be outscoring their bats, and we start more hitters than we do pitchers.

 

When you reference the points values, it would be useful to also reference replacement level bats.  So 550+ is a tier you are focusing on, but how does that compare to a player you could have for "free" off waivers?  You noted that 25% of the players in the 500-650 range could be had as free agents. So that may suggest that replacement level is around 500 points?  Hard to tell.

And then how does that compare to pitchers?  Where is their replacement value and where are the aces?

And can you swap pitchers in and out on a daily basis?  If so then the pitcher spot is really a combination of multiple pitchers each week.  If you have enough solid starters that you can swap a +50 SP (over replacement) pitcher in for his starts, then that one rotation spot becomes 50 points more valuable to you.  If all you have is great hitters and you are facing a team that has decent hitters and a great staff that they can swap in and out for their starts, they you are facing an uphill battle. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I agree with this. I did a points league for the first time last year (h2h), and I had a stud hitting lineup. I thought I'd have a great season. And then I realized that in a points league, it's all about the SPs. Worked the heck out of that team. Lol. Not trying to be all CSB...just pointing out my agreement that points leagues seem to be more geared towards SPs than any other position. 

 

I even did a scatter plot for pitchers, just like I did hitters, over the past 3 years. On average, theres:

700+: 1 pitcher

600-700:2 pitchers

500-600:6 pitchers

400-500: 14 pitchers

so, by missing out on those arms, i really have been doing a disservice to my overall team. 

 

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10 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

When you reference the points values, it would be useful to also reference replacement level bats.  So 550+ is a tier you are focusing on, but how does that compare to a player you could have for "free" off waivers?  You noted that 25% of the players in the 500-650 range could be had as free agents. So that may suggest that replacement level is around 500 points?  Hard to tell.

And then how does that compare to pitchers?  Where is their replacement value and where are the aces?

And can you swap pitchers in and out on a daily basis?  If so then the pitcher spot is really a combination of multiple pitchers each week.  If you have enough solid starters that you can swap a +50 SP (over replacement) pitcher in for his starts, then that one rotation spot becomes 50 points more valuable to you.  If all you have is great hitters and you are facing a team that has decent hitters and a great staff that they can swap in and out for their starts, they you are facing an uphill battle. 

 

 

We can't swap out daily. It is once a week. 5 starters. two relievers. 

 

I haven't played around with the concept of replacement level bats. That may be another phase of prep that I'll do between now and draft time. If you have any recommendations on how to approach that, I'm open to suggestions. 

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how risky would it be do only draft sub $25 team?  you really could get a pretty fun team (on paper) something like vlad, bichette, robles, roberts, eloy, fill it out with some high floor  players like moose, donaldson, ozuna,  santana, sano. could probably get 3 or 4 $20ish buck guys like kershaw greinke, thor, nola, severino, fill out sp 4-6 with $10-12 buck guys like kluber, carrasco, wheeler, montas. luzardo, urias, for upside.

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24 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

how risky would it be do only draft sub $25 team?  you really could get a pretty fun team (on paper) something like vlad, bichette, robles, roberts, eloy, fill it out with some high floor  players like moose, donaldson, ozuna,  santana, sano. could probably get 3 or 4 $20ish buck guys like kershaw greinke, thor, nola, severino, fill out sp 4-6 with $10-12 buck guys like kluber, carrasco, wheeler, montas. luzardo, urias, for upside.

 

I've done similar auctions before especially when guys are overpaying so these value guys your mentioning can go for even less if that is the case, I had a unbelievable team my first time this happened (wasn't planned but everyone went way over projected prices) so I thought this was the way to go in auctions. I tried it again and a handful of my guys busted and as in my first one I was pretty deep so I stuck with players too long missing out on adding hot free agents so I now make sure to have a handful of $1 guys your not in love with that you can move on from. Lastly here is where I found where the risk could be, if one or more other owners is thinking the same way you end up fighting over the same players often.

 

Now I would like to ask you this, how risky is it to go Trout, Acuna, Yelich and Bellinger and pray 🙏???

Edited by turner46
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34 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

I've done similar auctions before especially when guys are overpaying so these value guys your mentioning can go for even less if that is the case, I had a unbelievable team my first time this happened (wasn't planned but everyone went way over projected prices) so I thought this was the way to go in auctions. I tried it again and a handful of my guys busted and as in my first one I was pretty deep so I stuck with players too long missing out on adding hot free agents so I now make sure to have a handful of $1 guys your not in love with that you can move on from. Lastly here is where I found where the risk could be, if one or more other owners is thinking the same way you end up fighting over the same players often.

 

Now I would like to ask you this, how risky is it to go Trout, Acuna, Yelich and Bellinger and pray 🙏???

will come down to health like always. id rather go one of trout/acuna/yelich and a cheaper 5 cat option like ro ram/trea/tatis if you can get them for low $30 (seen trea go 33ish a couple times and jo ram and tatis as well and then cheaper vet 25-30 buck vet like blackmon/harper  also you wont have any sp if you spend $220ish on 4 guys

 

i think that come draft time those flashy names will go for more than avg cost (bichette vlad eloy roberts robles). might build around blackmon and harper for sub 30 and go with that same strat with robles robert eloy. ramon laureano as a cheaper fall back if robles and roberts go for something crazy like mid $20. like you said this will only be a viable strat if money is flying around early in the draft

Edited by colepenhagen
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11 hours ago, turner46 said:

Now I would like to ask you this, how risky is it to go Trout, Acuna, Yelich and Bellinger and pray 🙏???

 

I've debated this seriously, feel like it could work if you do with 2 of them and then another top guy a different position. One of Trout/Acuna/Yelich for OF, Bellinger at 1B, then lets say Lindor at SS. This always works better in shallower leagues where the $1 guys at the end are better.

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Our very deep league (24 teams) is switching the way we auction players. Instead of calling out random names, they are going by rosters from MLB teams based on 2019 standings. So WAS players first, HOU second and so on with BAL and DET the last 2 teams.

Curious as to the thoughts on what would be the best way to attack this change in auction style? We only draft 10 Hitters and 7 Pitchers. 

 

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8 hours ago, MontyGs said:

Our very deep league (24 teams) is switching the way we auction players. Instead of calling out random names, they are going by rosters from MLB teams based on 2019 standings. So WAS players first, HOU second and so on with BAL and DET the last 2 teams.

Curious as to the thoughts on what would be the best way to attack this change in auction style? We only draft 10 Hitters and 7 Pitchers. 

 

what the hell is the point of that? That seems so dull, boring, and possibly damaging?

 

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I always think it's important in auction drafts to decide where you are going to save money.  What positions are you going to go bargain shopping for? I could see myself waiting and taking one of the $5-10 options at 1B.  Same at SS, if the top guys go for too much, I don't like the value of the next tier of guys.  Thoughts? 

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13 hours ago, MontyGs said:

Our very deep league (24 teams) is switching the way we auction players. Instead of calling out random names, they are going by rosters from MLB teams based on 2019 standings. So WAS players first, HOU second and so on with BAL and DET the last 2 teams.

Curious as to the thoughts on what would be the best way to attack this change in auction style? We only draft 10 Hitters and 7 Pitchers. 

 

Makes no sense. You have to call out the whole 40 man roster? You will roster players from 10 teams? In normal auctions every player called out has to wind up on a team.

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3 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Makes no sense. You have to call out the whole 40 man roster? You will roster players from 10 teams? In normal auctions every player called out has to wind up on a team.

 

Not the whole roster (I imagine that's too many players especially only drafting 17 players per team).

 

1st nomination: Max Scherzer 

2nd nomination: Jose Altuve

and so on, once you get through all the teams, it goes back to WAS roster and then nominate the next Nat such as Trea Turner.

etc.

 

With that in mind, don't go nominating a player that no one wants cuz you'll be stuck with that player. At the end there will be 408 players rostered which is less than half of the players on MLB rosters (total).

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13 hours ago, MontyGs said:

Our very deep league (24 teams) is switching the way we auction players. Instead of calling out random names, they are going by rosters from MLB teams based on 2019 standings. So WAS players first, HOU second and so on with BAL and DET the last 2 teams.

Curious as to the thoughts on what would be the best way to attack this change in auction style? We only draft 10 Hitters and 7 Pitchers. 

 

 

I don't love that model, but at the same time it wouldn't change my approach much.

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2 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Not the whole roster (I imagine that's too many players especially only drafting 17 players per team).

 

1st nomination: Max Scherzer 

2nd nomination: Jose Altuve

and so on, once you get through all the teams, it goes back to WAS roster and then nominate the next Nat such as Trea Turner.

etc.

 

With that in mind, don't go nominating a player that no one wants cuz you'll be stuck with that player. At the end there will be 408 players rostered which is less than half of the players on MLB rosters (total).

Makes more sense here, but still would only work(kinda) in a non-keeper format. Wouldn't getting stuck with Orioles and Marlins at the end really eff those teams. You'd hear crickets on the 10th player to go for those teams.

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10 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Makes more sense here, but still would only work(kinda) in a non-keeper format. Wouldn't getting stuck with Orioles and Marlins at the end really eff those teams. You'd hear crickets on the 10th player to go for those teams.

 

Yeah, I don't like it. If your nomination falls on teams you don't like and/or teams with no players left that you want, well that just sucks!

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14 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

I don't love that model, but at the same time it wouldn't change my approach much.

 

Maybe to @duke of queens point, plan ahead so you're not stuck with crap at the end of the draft? Not sure exactly how I'd do that, would have to try and map it out. 

 

Again, format stinks IMO.

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4 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Yeah, I don't like it. If your nomination falls on teams you don't like and/or teams with no players left that you want, well that just sucks!

I mean how many Detroit Tigers are rostered in a 12 teamer? 5 maybe 6? Imagine having to have to roster Christin Stewart and Spencer Turnbull. I jut saw the 24 team part. Forget my comments, carry on.

Edited by duke of queens
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I totally agree about it being dumb. Not a fan at all but I'm not the commish so I have to live with it since it passed league vote. How they're dong it is by 40 man roster. WAS hitters first then WAS pitchers then on to HOU and so on. If you have't filled your team by the end, you can grab whatever players weren't drafted. Yet again dumb.

Big names are always over bid in this league. Acuna went for $65 last year. Cole went for $70. So I assume it will be the same this year. There are usually 6-10 owners who have about a 3rd of their money left to buy the best guys from the lower tier teams. Players like Mondesi, Arenado and so on this year.

 

So I'm not sure how to apply that and still attack this new stupid format. Any suggestions?

 

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6 hours ago, MontyGs said:

I totally agree about it being dumb. Not a fan at all but I'm not the commish so I have to live with it since it passed league vote. How they're dong it is by 40 man roster. WAS hitters first then WAS pitchers then on to HOU and so on. If you have't filled your team by the end, you can grab whatever players weren't drafted. Yet again dumb.

Big names are always over bid in this league. Acuna went for $65 last year. Cole went for $70. So I assume it will be the same this year. There are usually 6-10 owners who have about a 3rd of their money left to buy the best guys from the lower tier teams. Players like Mondesi, Arenado and so on this year.

 

So I'm not sure how to apply that and still attack this new stupid format. Any suggestions?

 

I have only one suggestion, find another league.

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7 hours ago, MontyGs said:

I totally agree about it being dumb. Not a fan at all but I'm not the commish so I have to live with it since it passed league vote. How they're dong it is by 40 man roster. WAS hitters first then WAS pitchers then on to HOU and so on. If you have't filled your team by the end, you can grab whatever players weren't drafted. Yet again dumb.

Big names are always over bid in this league. Acuna went for $65 last year. Cole went for $70. So I assume it will be the same this year. There are usually 6-10 owners who have about a 3rd of their money left to buy the best guys from the lower tier teams. Players like Mondesi, Arenado and so on this year.

 

So I'm not sure how to apply that and still attack this new stupid format. Any suggestions?

 

In my experience with auctions, no matter the format, is that you can plan all you want. That plan goes out the window as soon as it starts.

You can have a plan to ignore the big players and find value elsewhere, but what happens when Soto or Strasburg is at a value because people have their eyes elsewhere? Well, you grab them and reevaluate.

So my advice is the same as it would be for anyone in an auction. Do your homework. Have a rough $ value assigned to each draftable player. Highlight guys you think have an opportunity to outearn their value. And continue to grab guys that your league mates miss on. 

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Yeah, the only other thought for that structure is to pay particular attention to $ remaining against the number of players in the top couple tiers.   I’d guess a risk is people hoard $$ for stars on teams that happen to be later in the order and then bid crazily for stars late, which never happens in a normal auction (stars always go sooner).  Some teams will get left out and those late stars will be overpriced.  So If that is how it is trending you want to buy aggressively in the middle and skip the heated bidding late.

Edited by Whizzinator

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I'm doing a daily league lineups for the first time.  Stakes are pretty high

Who are some players and sleepers who are much more valuable in daily leagues?

 

Ohtani, Joc Peterson, JD Davis, Ryan Braun are a few that come to mind

 

Give me what you got please 

Also, what is a good pitching strategy.  I'm thinking of rostering very few bench hitters and have a lot of relievers and starters to rotate is this correct?

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5 hours ago, jbarretta said:

I'm doing a daily league lineups for the first time.  Stakes are pretty high

Who are some players and sleepers who are much more valuable in daily leagues?

 

Ohtani, Joc Peterson, JD Davis, Ryan Braun are a few that come to mind

 

Give me what you got please 

Also, what is a good pitching strategy.  I'm thinking of rostering very few bench hitters and have a lot of relievers and starters to rotate is this correct?

A guy like Tom Murphy who kills lefties, could be helpful: Also Voit/Ford 1B for the yanks...You have to keep spots open for daily moves

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