Evincar

Willie Calhoun 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Its seems like he's flying under the radar this season maybe because he only played in 83 games last year. Hit 21 homers in those 83 games with an .848 OPS. I think he can hit .265/90/35/90 with an everyday role. Pretty good value for an OF that is going after pick 150 in drafts.

Edited by Evincar
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Should have a nice spot in what could be a good lineup too. Nice tout.

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19 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Should have a nice spot in what could be a good lineup too. Nice tout.

I’m kinda interested in Calhoun but I’m not so sure this lineup is going to be very good. Their team wRC+ last year was 88 and they haven’t really done anything to upgrade it (sorry Todd Frazier fans). From RotoChamp:

      Projected 2020 Lineup 
  Player POS AB HR RBI AVG
1 Shin-Soo Choo  DH 517 21 60 0.263
2 Elvis Andrus  SS 564 12 66 0.273
3 Joey Gallo  OF 474 41 89 0.222
4 Danny Santana  OF 507 24 73 0.252
5 Willie Calhoun  OF 528 24 71 0.267
6 Todd Frazier  3B 380 19 58 0.232
7 Rougned Odor  2B 520 27 79 0.225
8 Robinson Chirinos C 352 18 57 0.236
9 Ronald Guzman  1B 358 14 49

0.237

 

That looks like a bottom ten offense to me. Plus the new ballpark is a little bit of an unknown. The dimensions are similar to the old ballpark but it has a retractable roof which will negate some of the hitter’s advantages that the hot Texas nights used to have.
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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

I’m kinda interested in Calhoun but I’m not so sure this lineup is going to be very good. Their team wRC+ last year was 88 and they haven’t really done anything to upgrade it (sorry Todd Frazier fans). From RotoChamp:

      Projected 2020 Lineup 
  Player POS AB HR RBI AVG
1 Shin-Soo Choo  DH 517 21 60 0.263
2 Elvis Andrus  SS 564 12 66 0.273
3 Joey Gallo  OF 474 41 89 0.222
4 Danny Santana  OF 507 24 73 0.252
5 Willie Calhoun  OF 528 24 71 0.267
6 Todd Frazier  3B 380 19 58 0.232
7 Rougned Odor  2B 520 27 79 0.225
8 Robinson Chirinos C 352 18 57 0.236
9 Ronald Guzman  1B 358 14 49

0.237

 

That looks like a bottom ten offense to me. Plus the new ballpark is a little bit of an unknown. The dimensions are similar to the old ballpark but it has a retractable roof which will negate some of the hitter’s advantages that the hot Texas nights used to have.

Nick Solak would fit in there over Guzman but yeah still not a great lineup. Willie could breakout this year, he had a great showing last year and will finally have a starting gig heading to the year. Prior years his mentality and dissatisfaction with not having a starting role seems to have at least impacted him a bit. He appears much more motivated this year in spring. Can’t wait to see his results. 

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22 minutes ago, Carnegie said:

Lineup looks terrible, Calhoun has done nothing but disappoint so far.

 

He played well last year, I disagree. although Im not sold on the lineup either

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45 minutes ago, Carnegie said:

Lineup looks terrible, Calhoun has done nothing but disappoint so far.

You realize played half a season right?To think he nearly went 100 R+RBI and .270 with 21 home runs in 83 games as a disappointment is laughable.

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Yeah sorry, I thought the lineup was better for some reason. So, scratch that, but he should hit in a good spot in a meh lineup, which still carries some value.

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Calhoun's becoming quite the sleeper. I'm seeing his name everywhere. If I can get him again (I had him last year) for cheap, he's certainly a buy but I wonder how much his price will rise in the coming weeks. Anyone disagree with the blurb below from RotoBaller about the new ballpark?

RotoBaller Outlook

"Calhoun took a step forward in 2019, but his production at the new Globe Life Field may disappoint. In 2019, his .524 SLG at one of baseball’s best parks for hitters was backed by just a .452 xSLG. That spells trouble for Calhoun’s ability to repeat a 40-home run pace, as 21 home runs in 83 games was. Given how much better his results were than his contact in 2019—he also only barreled up 16 baseballs, which should produce closer to 11 home runs than 21—even 30 homers could be difficult. Another issue is that if the Rangers decide to close their roof on hot days, balls will carry less than they did last year. The home run outlook is especially important because Calhoun offers nothing in stolen bases, little in batting average (even with 2019's improvement, he’s a .258 career hitter with a .251 xBA), and doesn’t have a great lineup around him as the Rangers put together a team wRC+ of just 88 last year. Some good news is that the trade of Nomar Mazara to the White Sox should mean fairly safe playing time for Calhoun. Nonetheless, with an ADP of 155, Calhoun isn’t coming at much of a discount for someone with a mere half-season of success under his belt. If he falls a round or two below that, you can start considering him, but give someone else the chance to be overly aggressive first."

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33 minutes ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

Calhoun's becoming quite the sleeper. I'm seeing his name everywhere. If I can get him again (I had him last year) for cheap, he's certainly a buy but I wonder how much his price will rise in the coming weeks. Anyone disagree with the blurb below from RotoBaller about the new ballpark?

RotoBaller Outlook

"Calhoun took a step forward in 2019, but his production at the new Globe Life Field may disappoint. In 2019, his .524 SLG at one of baseball’s best parks for hitters was backed by just a .452 xSLG. That spells trouble for Calhoun’s ability to repeat a 40-home run pace, as 21 home runs in 83 games was. Given how much better his results were than his contact in 2019—he also only barreled up 16 baseballs, which should produce closer to 11 home runs than 21—even 30 homers could be difficult. Another issue is that if the Rangers decide to close their roof on hot days, balls will carry less than they did last year. The home run outlook is especially important because Calhoun offers nothing in stolen bases, little in batting average (even with 2019's improvement, he’s a .258 career hitter with a .251 xBA), and doesn’t have a great lineup around him as the Rangers put together a team wRC+ of just 88 last year. Some good news is that the trade of Nomar Mazara to the White Sox should mean fairly safe playing time for Calhoun. Nonetheless, with an ADP of 155, Calhoun isn’t coming at much of a discount for someone with a mere half-season of success under his belt. If he falls a round or two below that, you can start considering him, but give someone else the chance to be overly aggressive first."

 

I don’t want to sound cliche, but prospect growth isn’t linear.  This guy was a pretty big prospect who had a very high power grade.  I agree with some of this blurb, like he’ll probably be a slight  minus in batting average and the pro rated power should drop.  However, if he WAS a .270 hitter with 40 homer power, he would certainly be going a LOT higher than 155.  The blurb (like so often in fantasy baseball) seems to almost over correct the adp because of that dreadful r word, regression.  Middle rounds for a .260 hitter with 30 hr power, but with very plausible upside seems like a discount to me.  I certainly wouldn’t let him get past those rounds.  

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On 3/2/2020 at 9:40 AM, Carnegie said:

Lineup looks terrible, Calhoun has done nothing but disappoint so far.

Really?  Guess I didn't read is really good stats from last year the right way, lol.

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Quote

Willie Calhoun was taken to a Phoenix hospital for evaluation after being hit in the mouth by a pitch during Sunday's Cactus League game against the Dodgers.

Calhoun caught a mid-90s Julio Urias fastball in the face and was down in the batter's box for a few minutes before being carted off. He was holding a towel to his mouth as he got up under his own power. The Rangers should provide an update on the 25-year-old soon.

Source: Evan P. Grant on Twitter                                  Mar 8, 2020, 4:55 PM ET

 

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7 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Depends on the severity really. 


yep. Surgery or not etc. 

 

Hoskins came back pretty quick I think 

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Bottom line is he will be back - and now at a very deep discount. Great player to fill the IL spot.

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4 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

Bottom line is he will be back - and now at a very deep discount. Great player to fill the IL spot.

Willie tweeted out that this was the silver lining for him too.

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

What's a fractured jaw mean in terms of time missed

Well it can vary.  Not all fractures and places of the fracture are the same.  See below for two examples:

Quote

Willie Calhoun sustained a fractured jaw after being hit in the face by a pitch during Sunday's Cactus League game.

He's expected to undergo further testing Monday, but this is obviously something that will sideline him for at least a few weeks. Jason Heyward sustained a fractured jaw in 2013 and was out for a month, but then again, Rhys Hoskins broke his jaw in 2018 and missed nine games, so it's likely too early to try to guess how long he might be out. If nothing else, it's certainly a setback for the 25-year-old, the Rangers and fantasy players hoping for a big season out of Calhoun after an impressive 2019 campaign.

Source: John Blake on Twitter                            Mar 8, 2020, 7:58 PM ET

 

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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7 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

Bottom line is he will be back - and now at a very deep discount. Great player to fill the IL spot.

I like this approach....

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