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Willie Calhoun 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

 

I was responding to the post I quoted: not really confusing IMO

My confusion wasn't about whose post you were responding to, my confusion is why is he free / on waivers when he won't be missing any games since the season won't start until June / July....giving him plenty of time to get healthy.

Edited by El_Chingon

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4 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

My confusion wasn't about whose post you were responding to, my confusion is why is he free / on waivers when he won't be missing any games since the season won't start until June / July....giving him plenty of time to get healthy.

He is on waivers in one of my leagues...Like I said, if he is on waivers he is a good add, wasn't saying he shouldn't rostered

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10 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

My confusion wasn't about whose post you were responding to, my confusion is why is he free / on waivers when he won't be missing any games since the season won't start until June / July....giving him plenty of time to get healthy.

Probably drafted pre virus scare, and dropped prematurely after the hbp. 

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1 hour ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Off to a rough start..thoughts on him this year?

 

I'm still a believer and the season is less than a week old.

I've benched him in a dynasty league but cut him in a redraft (I did add him to my watchlist, though).

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Posted (edited)

He is fine.  A lot of hitters get off to slow starts and every year people here post this stuff.  He will be fine.  So will Bryant.  So will Blackmon.  So will Trout.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

He is fine.  A lot of hitters get off to slow starts and every year people here post this stuff.  He will be fine.  So will Bryant.  So will Blackmon.  So will Trout.

I like this kid and am reasonably optimistic he'll pick it up, but it's a bit disingenuous to lump him in that category of players.

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He was not comparing their talent level, he was comparing their respective slow starts and said they will be fine.

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3 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

He was not comparing their talent level, he was comparing their respective slow starts and said they will be fine.

But the reason we know the other guys will be fine is because of their proven talent level. Calhoun has not done that. He had a nice run last year in 300 something plate appearances, but that's not nearly enough to have expectations of where he'll rebound to. We can all agree he's not going to continue batting 000 on the season, but that's not what we're arguing. We don't know what he'll actually do on the season. His 'fine' could be flirting with 300, but it could also hover closer to the Mendoza line. He was - and is - an unproven commodity. I don't think you can confidently say he'll be 'fine' like you can with Trout, Blackmon, etc. And in a 60 game season, redraft leagues can't afford to have their usual level of patience on all their sleepers.

 

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11 hours ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Off to a rough start..thoughts on him this year?

Seriously? Has it even been a full week yet?

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

But the reason we know the other guys will be fine is because of their proven talent level. Calhoun has not done that. He had a nice run last year in 300 something plate appearances, but that's not nearly enough to have expectations of where he'll rebound to. We can all agree he's not going to continue batting 000 on the season, but that's not what we're arguing. We don't know what he'll actually do on the season. His 'fine' could be flirting with 300, but it could also hover closer to the Mendoza line. He was - and is - an unproven commodity. I don't think you can confidently say he'll be 'fine' like you can with Trout, Blackmon, etc. And in a 60 game season, redraft leagues can't afford to have their usual level of patience on all their sleepers.

 

He is not unproven.

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4 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

He is not unproven.

Perhaps we're working from different standards. What do you believe he's proven? 

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Dont forget this kid got his jaw broken in the first spring training and just coming off a hip flexor strain. Could have been a bit tentative at the dish after just getting back

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

Perhaps we're working from different standards. What do you believe he's proven? 

He is a proven .305/.458/.763 hitter in 492 career mlb PAs and a proven .356/.499/.855 hitter over 2059 milb PAs.  At some point a hitter is what he is.

Edited by El_Chingon
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1 hour ago, Big League Choo said:

Dont forget this kid got his jaw broken in the first spring training and just coming off a hip flexor strain. Could have been a bit tentative at the dish after just getting back

No, let's panic after three games, that is much easier.

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45 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

He is a proven .305/.458/.763 hitter in 492 career mlb PAs and a proven .356/.499/.855 hitter over 2059 milb PAs.  At some point a hitter is what he is.


That line is disingenuous. His career OBP is .305 in the Majors, but his career BA is .252. You should have posted that his slash line is .252/.305/.763 in the Majors and is .289/.356/.855 in the minors. And I’d say with that slash line in MLB, he hasn’t exactly proven anything. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:


That line is disingenuous. His career OBP is .305 in the Majors, but his career BA is .252. You should have posted that his slash line is .252/.305/.763 in the Majors and is .289/.356/.855 in the minors. And I’d say with that slash line in MLB, he hasn’t exactly proven anything. 

He is a proven competent mlb hitter. 

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6 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

He is a proven competent mlb hitter. 


I would say that .252/.305/.763 shows that he’s been a barely competent MLB hitter so far, if that. But 500ish PAs doesn’t prove anything. 

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1 hour ago, El_Chingon said:

He is a proven .305/.458/.763 hitter in 492 career mlb PAs and a proven .356/.499/.855 hitter over 2059 milb PAs.  At some point a hitter is what he is.

Where are you getting these numbers? In his 492 career at bats he's a 252 hitter. With a 305 obp. 

In 2017 he hit 265 in 37 PAs. 

2018 he hit 222 in 108.

2019 he hit 269

Are you conveniently ignoring his batting average and trying to mislead people? Do you think a 305 obp with less than a season's worth of career work is somehow proving oneself at the major league level? And if we're going down that road, any thoughts on his career -0.6 WAR? Or his career 91wrc+? 100 is considered an average OPS+. Calhoun's is 92. That's below average. Should the Rangers just say this is what he is and that's that? Even last year in his breakout he was barreling the ball at a rather pathetic 4.7% of plate appearances.

 

I definitely like the guy and am intrigued enough to have drafted him and hold onto him for a bit. But he's very far from being a proven hitter. Add in a lousy lineup around him and depending on the league size it's very understandable why he's on the ww. 

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Rangers manager Chris Woodward admitted Wednesday that he has some concern about how Willie Calhoun is responding after he was hit in the face by a pitch during spring training.

Calhoun suffered a broken jaw back in early March when he was struck by a Julio Urias offering. He was 100 percent for summer camp but went 2-for-37 in intrasquad games and is now 0-for-10 to start the season. “I trust Willie,” Woodward said. “He has no fear, but I want to make sure he's OK. It's traumatic to get hit in the face, so I'm obviously keeping that in mind. I want to get him going. I want to make sure he's a big part of our offense, but also don't want to put him in a vulnerable position where it creates an issue."

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3 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Where are you getting these numbers? In his 492 career at bats he's a 252 hitter. With a 305 obp. 

In 2017 he hit 265 in 37 PAs. 

2018 he hit 222 in 108.

2019 he hit 269

Are you conveniently ignoring his batting average and trying to mislead people? Do you think a 305 obp with less than a season's worth of career work is somehow proving oneself at the major league level? And if we're going down that road, any thoughts on his career -0.6 WAR? Or his career 91wrc+? 100 is considered an average OPS+. Calhoun's is 92. That's below average. Should the Rangers just say this is what he is and that's that? Even last year in his breakout he was barreling the ball at a rather pathetic 4.7% of plate appearances.

 

I definitely like the guy and am intrigued enough to have drafted him and hold onto him for a bit. But he's very far from being a proven hitter. Add in a lousy lineup around him and depending on the league size it's very understandable why he's on the ww. 

Trying to mislead people?  Not sure why you are so upset.... feel free to drop him and move on from him after a couple games if he doesn't turn it around.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Trying to mislead people?  Not sure why you are so upset.... feel free to drop him and move on from him after a couple games if he doesn't turn it around.

I'm trying to get clarity on your statements. I already said multiple times I like him. I've simply noted he is NOT a proven hitter and it was wrong to lump him in the same category as Trout, Blackmon, and Bryant, who have multiple years of putting up above average production while Willie has less than one full season's worth of at bats in his entire big league career.

 

While talking about Calhoun you said "He is a proven competent mlb hitter." But the stats don't really support your claim unless you try sliding some misleading data past us. He doesn't even have a full year's worth of stats to go off, but he's shown average-ish production in that time. His rc+ is right there with Starlin Castro and Nick Ahmed. His career woba puts him alongside 2019 Dexter Fowler and Miguel Cabrera. If that's your idea of a proven, competent, hitter we should care about in fantasy, then okay, we simply have different standards.

 

His minor league stats and brief MLB flashes warrant him getting more time, but you posted a misleading argument and don't appear able to back up the claims. I agree "At some point a hitter is what he is." But that point better not be now, because if that's what Texas is getting they're going to be looking for replacements fairly soon. If you're all in on the kid it's fine - he is talented. But if you just want to make claims without the data to back it up then more power to you, but I'm not going to put any significant weight behind your posts.

 

 

Edited by AnonymousRob

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9 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I'm trying to get clarity on your statements. I already said multiple times I like him. I've simply noted he is NOT a proven hitter and it was wrong to lump him in the same category as Trout, Blackmon, and Bryant, who have multiple years of putting up above average production while Willie has less than one full season's worth of at bats in his entire big league career.

 

While talking about Calhoun you said "He is a proven competent mlb hitter." But the stats don't really support your claim unless you try sliding some misleading data past us. He doesn't even have a full year's worth of stats to go off, but he's shown average-ish production in that time. His rc+ is right there with Starlin Castro and Nick Ahmed. His career woba puts him alongside 2019 Dexter Fowler and Miguel Cabrera. If that's your idea of a proven, competent, hitter we should care about in fantasy, then okay, we simply have different standards.

 

His minor league stats and brief MLB flashes warrant him getting more time, but you posted a misleading argument and don't appear able to back up the claims. I agree "At some point a hitter is what he is." But that point better not be now, because if that's what Texas is getting they're going to be looking for replacements fairly soon. If you're all in on the kid it's fine - he is talented. But if you just want to make claims without the data to back it up then more power to you, but I'm not going to put any significant weight behind your posts.

 

 

Hmmm classic straw man argument that I was lumping him in with Trout, Blackmon, and Bryant which I did not.  I even clarified that from the beginning, which you seem to have ignored....carry on with your day sir.

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1 minute ago, El_Chingon said:

Hmmm classic straw man argument that I was lumping him in with Trout, Blackmon, and Bryant which I did not.  I even clarified that from the beginning, which you seem to have ignored....carry on with your day sir.

But the reason we know those other guys will be fine is because they have multiple years of being above average hitters. No matter how they start, you KNOW what their baseline is.

 

Calhoun has less than one full season under his belt, and he's been roughly average in that time. He hasn't proven a single thing in the majors beyond mediocrity. We have no idea what his baseline is. 

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3 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

But the reason we know those other guys will be fine is because they have multiple years of being above average hitters. No matter how they start, you KNOW what their baseline is.

 

Calhoun has less than one full season under his belt, and he's been roughly average in that time. He hasn't proven a single thing in the majors beyond mediocrity. We have no idea what his baseline is. 

General rule of thumb is you need 1000-1500 ABs to know what a player is at the MLB level. We don't yet have that for Calhoun. 

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