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Austin Ekeler 2020 Outlook

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This dude has the most inflated ADP in fantasy and there isn’t anyone close. You’d have to be out of your damn mind to draft him anywhere near the second round. 

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12 hours ago, Gohawks said:

This dude has the most inflated ADP in fantasy and there isn’t anyone close. You’d have to be out of your damn mind to draft him anywhere near the second round. 

 

This^ gif | This^/THIS GUY GETS IT | Know Your Meme

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, rex_bulkhead said:

At what draft spot would Ekeler be fair value?

Around the 5th round in a 12 team league. 

Edited by Gohawks
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1 hour ago, rex_bulkhead said:

At what draft spot would Ekeler be fair value?

4th to 5th round. Let the previous Ekeler owner reach for him.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Around the 5th round in a 12 team league. 


Yeah, Barkley and McCaffrey in the 4th round in a 12-team league would be fair value as well 🙄

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Around the 5th round in a 12 team league. 

What is your reasoning behind your opinion?

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I agree, vastly overrated in conjunction to his ADP. But I mean 5th round is just looney talk ... that is not happening in any competitive league.  3rd round to early 4th seems proper 

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8 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

I agree, vastly overrated in conjunction to his ADP. But I mean 5th round is just looney talk ... that is not happening in any competitive league.  3rd round to early 4th seems proper 


He’s being drafted on average in the RB12-15 range...coming off a season where he finished top-5, his main RB competition left, he got signed to a new contract and is entering his age-25 season.  He is definitely not overvalued right now.

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He is definitely the hardest player to rank in the first 2 rounds. Definitely lived off Rivers dumping off to him which is not likely going to happen as much with Tyrod Taylor who could just as easily tuck and run himself. Some have also suggested that Ekeler will earn more goal line work this year but I’m not entirely convinced. Majority could just as easily go to Jackson and there is also Kelley there as well. Seems like a risky second round pick and would rather grab him at least a round maybe 2 later but doubt he will drop that far

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6 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


He’s being drafted on average in the RB12-15 range...coming off a season where he finished top-5, his main RB competition left, he got signed to a new contract and is entering his age-25 season.  He is definitely not overvalued right now.

 

His biggest question marks are at the quarterback position and just this offense as a whole. Tyrod will limit Ekeler's ceiling , and Herbert will carry a super low floor. And for that reason ... "I'm Out"  (at his current adp) 

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Just now, RunCMC said:

 

His biggest question marks are at the quarterback position and just this offense as a whole. Tyrod will limit Ekeler's ceiling , and Herbert will carry a super low floor. And for that reason ... "I'm Out"  (at his current adp) 


Rushing QBs also increase the YPC of their RBs. Ekeler is being drafted where it’s expected he loses a lot of production from last year — the difference bt RB4 (where he finished) and RB13 was more than 5 ppg in PPR.

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How is this guy being drafted in the 2nd round?

Easy fade.

I'm just avoiding him in all drafts. The floor is super low with this guy in this new offense with new QB.

Why would you draft Ekeler over a Todd Gurley, who is more proven, and who is in a 5x better situation? 

 

Don't get it.

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:


Yeah, Barkley and McCaffrey in the 4th round in a 12-team league would be fair value as well 🙄

Is Ekeler within that realm of talent now?

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26 minutes ago, sSektor said:

Is Ekeler within that realm of talent now?

I can only speculate, but I think his point was that Ekeler is not going past round 3. Which seems to work out for you since you don't want him there. 

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Posted (edited)

Most over rated player. If Rivers was still in SD then yes for me, but, he is not. Tyrod is there (barf). Rivers was/is a Checkdown to his RB machine. I can only see a arrow pointing down without Rivers even with Gordon gone. No way I would take Eck in top 3 rounds. Yall are chasing last years numbers. Id rather take Nyhiem Hines later in drafts because I see him having his biggest "fantasy"  year with Rivers in PPR.

Edited by SyNdicateZ

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3 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Most over rated player. If Rivers was still in SD then yes for me, but, he is not. Tyrod is there (barf). Rivers was/is a Checkdown to his RB machine. I can only see a arrow pointing down without Rivers even with Gordon gone. No way I would take Eck in top 3 rounds. Yall are chasing last years numbers. Id rather take Nyhiem Hines later in drafts because I see him having his biggest "fantasy"  year with Rivers in PPR.

Hines right now is good value since he's off the radar for most folks.

I don't see what the fuss is over Eck. He seems like he's appropriately valued somewhere around Round 3. I don't think he will be a slam dunk. I don't think he will be a bust. I think he will be a good contributor. 

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He was basically a receiver last year. With rivers gone and taylor in town im going to pass. Maybe 4th round id take a chance.

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

He was basically a receiver last year. With rivers gone and taylor in town im going to pass. Maybe 4th round id take a chance.

 

Agree. I can certainly see him being valuable however if the Broncos and Raiders take a step forward and put up some points, forcing the offense to speed it up a bit. I will imagine that under Tyrod they will have no incentive to run a vast amount of plays and want to keep the play clock going and win with defense. This only helps a receiving back if they have designed plays up for him or he's on 1st down receptions.

Ekeler needs to improve significantly in between the tackles, or catch 100 balls again this year to return on ADP. 

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McCoy had 50, 57, and 77 (led the team) targets during Taylor's 3 seasons as a starter. Taylor is a conservative player and will dump it off to his RB. Rivers was no world beater last season. I don't see a reason why Taylor can't continue to utilize his own team's RB's best skill set. I think I'd be more concerned if Herbert were going to start right away.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

McCoy had 50, 57, and 77 (led the team) targets during Taylor's 3 seasons as a starter. Taylor is a conservative player and will dump it off to his RB. Rivers was no world beater last season. I don't see a reason why Taylor can't continue to utilize his own team's RB's best skill set. I think I'd be more concerned if Herbert were going to start right away.


Exactly. Ekeler’s ADP already prices in that his targets are going to take a big hit this year.

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4 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Agree. I can certainly see him being valuable however if the Broncos and Raiders take a step forward and put up some points, forcing the offense to speed it up a bit. I will imagine that under Tyrod they will have no incentive to run a vast amount of plays and want to keep the play clock going and win with defense. This only helps a receiving back if they have designed plays up for him or he's on 1st down receptions.

Ekeler needs to improve significantly in between the tackles, or catch 100 balls again this year to return on ADP. 


No he doesn’t. He could lose 1/3 of his receptions from last year and still maintain value at his ADP. He’s not being drafted at a point where he’s expected to repeat last year’s numbers. 

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8 hours ago, devaster said:

McCoy had 50, 57, and 77 (led the team) targets during Taylor's 3 seasons as a starter. Taylor is a conservative player and will dump it off to his RB. Rivers was no world beater last season. I don't see a reason why Taylor can't continue to utilize his own team's RB's best skill set. I think I'd be more concerned if Herbert were going to start right away.


taylor didn’t have Keenan Allen, mike Williams, and hunter henry in Buffalo. He had Sammy Watkins and old busted Charles clay. Sammy only played 8 games in the year McCoy led the team in targets. This was also prime 27 to 29 year old McCoy with absolutely no other playmakers on the team.  
 

Rivers averaged over 150 pass attempts to the RBs a season that’s coming down for sure, the OLine isn’t great. The rookie QB will almost certainly come in at some point, and the pace chargers of play is going to slow down this year. Eckeler has an up hill battle to be an RB1 this year but it can be done. 

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19 hours ago, joshua18 said:

No he doesn’t. He could lose 1/3 of his receptions from last year and still maintain value at his ADP. He’s not being drafted at a point where he’s expected to repeat last year’s numbers. 

Not if you also assume he also loses 1/3 of his receiving TDs. Then he would slip into the mid-teens at RB and be a slight reach at his current ADP. If you also assume his yards/reception suffer a modest drop from his awesome 10.6 career average (with Rivers) to 9.0 (which would still be quite good) then he drops into the high teens at RB and shouldn't be drafted before the early 4th rd. Of course this would also assume Ekeler picks up no points on the ground which would seem to be a very pessimistic assumption given Gordon's vacated 162 rush attempts.

I'd willingly take Ekeler in the 3rd. There aren't too many players behind his current ADP that I'd take ahead of him. CEH is the only RB currently behind Ekeler's ADP who I'd take first. The only WRs I'd definitely prefer in that range would be Evans and Golladay. For as much downside as Ekeler seems to carry, he presents quite a bit of upside in the early 3rd too. Adjust those assumptions above to a mildly positive degree and Ekeler could easily end up being a low-end RB1.

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On 8/9/2020 at 2:59 PM, devaster said:

What is your reasoning behind your opinion?

Just look at his rushing stats when Gordon sits out. Dude is a glorified COP back. He has had 7 games in his career where Gordon hasn't played. He averages under 50 YPG rushing and 3.6 YPC in those games. So why is he going so damn high? The main reason is he did great in fantasy during the 4 games Gordon was out. The problem is he got 6 TDs in those 4 games. That's just an absurd anomaly. If you recall to last season, Jackson was significantly outperforming Ekeler as a runner to the point that a split seemed unavoidable in terms of carries at least and then he got injured. 

So yeah, I damn sure don't buy Ekeler as a runner if he is given the lead role back because he has been terrible when given the lead role back rushing the ball. There's just no way you can convince me to waste a pick higher than the 5th round on a guy that is going to do almost all of his damage catching the ball when Tyrod Taylor is his QB. 

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