FantasyGuru24

Travis Kelce 2020 Outlook

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26 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

The #1 TE the last few seasons. What are his expectations for next year, do we see a dip in production?

On the contrary - as hard as it seems to believe, I actually think he had a “down” year last season.

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19 minutes ago, BMcP said:

On the contrary - as hard as it seems to believe, I actually think he had a “down” year last season.

Don't think you can really call it a down year considering Mahomes missed 2 games and really wasn't his normal self for a lot of the season.  I worry next year is the year he starts to break down.  Besides Tony G most Te's start to show there age and just the overall wear and tear the position entails at 30 to 31.  Will probably miss out on a great season but would rather not take the chance with a second round pick.  

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1 minute ago, youngrice said:

Don't think you can really call it a down year considering Mahomes missed 2 games and really wasn't his normal self for a lot of the season.  I worry next year is the year he starts to break down.  Besides Tony G most Te's start to show there age and just the overall wear and tear the position entails at 30 to 31.  Will probably miss out on a great season but would rather not take the chance with a second round pick.  

I don’t understand - wouldn’t that reinforce the notion that Kelce had a down year?  (Unless you’re expecting Mahomes to again miss two entire games and play through a lower-body injury for much of the season.)

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I don’t understand - wouldn’t that reinforce the notion that Kelce had a down year?  (Unless you’re expecting Mahomes to again miss two entire games and play through a lower-body injury for much of the season.)

Guess its how you look at it.  When somebody says a player has a down year I equate that to the player not performing well.  Which I don't think was the case with him.  It was just a matter of circumstance.

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22 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Guess its how you look at it.  When somebody says a player has a down year I equate that to the player not performing well.  Which I don't think was the case with him.  It was just a matter of circumstance.

Ah, got it - yep, what I meant was he didn’t do as well as he could have through no fault of his own.  Provided Mahomes remains relatively healthy next season, I expect Kelce’s numbers to improve across the board this season.

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Only an injury or physical deterioration over time is going to diminish his value. There are times when he gets walloped and looks to really be feeling it. Each year the likelihood goes up that the decline is coming but for 2020 I’d consider him a lot safer investment than many others going in his range.

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11 hours ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

The #1 TE the last few seasons. What are his expectations for next year, do we see a dip in production?

No, I think he will actually have an uptick in production with a healthy Mahomes 

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I seriously did not know that his brother plays for the Eagles. 
 

Anyhow, he should be the first or second TE selected. And then you just plug and play. Hell, leave him in there for the bye week as well, he probably would outscored a few TEs on his bye week. Joking of course. But it is not too bad of a way to play. 

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I forsee a lot of volatility in the RB and WR markets in the coming months. This guy is about as rock-solid as anyone not named Christian McCaffrey is right now. If I'm picking at the back end of a 12-team snake, I'm not upset about taking him 10-12th overall and picking up my starting WR or RB on the way back.

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George Kittle is on the rise, but I still see Travis Kelce as the #1 TE this upcoming NFL season.

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Posted (edited)

You be hard pressed to find a more consistent player than Kelce.  I see some people complain about the touchdowns, or that he is outscored from time to time by other TEs, but for me you're paying for the idea of having a guy in your TE spot who is going to play every game, have 80 catches and 1,000 yards as surely as the sun will rise in the east, with a chance for more.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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On 4/30/2020 at 6:47 PM, JE7HorseGod said:

You be hard pressed to find a more consistent player than Kelce.  I see some people complain about the touchdowns, or that he is outscored from time to time by other TEs, but for me you're paying for the idea of having a guy in your TE spot who is going to play every game, have 80 catches and 1,000 yards as surely as the sun will rise in the east, with a chance for more.

that statline is nothing special even as a floor for a top 15 pick.

is that worth a top 15ish pick or $45 auction?

vs $25 ertz who is basically that stat line (minus the upside of mahomes even though ertz went 116 rec, 1163 yds, 8 tds, 2 years ago)

 

 

too justify a top 15 pick you need to be shooting for a 90/1250/8 floor with a healthy 16 game season with mahomes (kelce avg 100 rec 1300 yds 7.5tds last 2 seasons with mahomes)

top 15 pick with outside shot at 115 rec 1500 yds double digit tds from a te sounds alot better than 80/1000/7

 

age and physical abuse from te position have me worried a little to invest such draft capital.

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I prefer to wait On TE unless Kelce foolishly slide to round 3. 

 

TE looks deeper to me than I can remember.  My targets will be Hurst, Gesicki, Jarwin, hockenson, and Doyle.  I’ll probably take two of these 5 and play the hot hand. 
 


 

Players I’m avoiding unless the value is stupid :

Engram, been there done that! 

Rudolph, completely TD dependent

Olson, should have retired.  Don’t see him making the season 

 

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18 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

that statline is nothing special even as a floor for a top 15 pick.

is that worth a top 15ish pick or $45 auction?

vs $25 ertz who is basically that stat line (minus the upside of mahomes even though ertz went 116 rec, 1163 yds, 8 tds, 2 years ago)

 

 

too justify a top 15 pick you need to be shooting for a 90/1250/8 floor with a healthy 16 game season with mahomes (kelce avg 100 rec 1300 yds 7.5tds last 2 seasons with mahomes)

top 15 pick with outside shot at 115 rec 1500 yds double digit tds from a te sounds alot better than 80/1000/7

 

age and physical abuse from te position have me worried a little to invest such draft capital.

 

He was 16th in ppr pts for non QB's last year and can be used at TE, imagine if some of the other players in that neighborhood had say RB/TE or WR/TE they would become more appealing imo.

14th in 2018

17th in 2017

 

To some they don't like how their team ends up when going early Tight End but I'm happy getting that with how I build my teams and how I generally find success later in the draft or on waivers throughout the year.

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I like him as a first rounder again in my keeper if he's there when i pick.  He won't be kept this year because the owner would have to choose between him and Michael Thomas.  The way i see it, you can go two ways.   If I flounder, he's a great trade chip, someone will always want the top TE.   If i pass on Kelce and maybe miss on TE, he might not be available if his owner is doing well.   You can always find a non playoff team with a decent RB or WR to trade.  A top TE may not always be on the market.  

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I'm really interested in my keeper league draft. We have new rules this year that make TEs full PPR while everyone else is half PPR. Just that alone would have ranked him 2nd among all TE/WR last year behind Thomas. And that was with a bummed up Mahomes. 

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4 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I'm really interested in my keeper league draft. We have new rules this year that make TEs full PPR while everyone else is half PPR. Just that alone would have ranked him 2nd among all TE/WR last year behind Thomas. And that was with a bummed up Mahomes. 

I've seen some leagues in Sleeper that have TE's at 1.5 PPR (in a PPR league). Those kind of measures are extremely interesting and I hope Yahoo will also pick up on that idea.

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11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I've seen some leagues in Sleeper that have TE's at 1.5 PPR (in a PPR league). Those kind of measures are extremely interesting and I hope Yahoo will also pick up on that idea.


It definitely makes the TE more relevant and elevates them at least to WR levels. It won’t be just an afterthought position. 

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5 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


It definitely makes the TE more relevant and elevates them at least to WR levels. It won’t be just an afterthought position. 

I would pick Kelce as a top 5 pick and Kittle as a top 12 with these settings. 

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18 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I've seen some leagues in Sleeper that have TE's at 1.5 PPR (in a PPR league). Those kind of measures are extremely interesting and I hope Yahoo will also pick up on that idea.

Yeah I’m sorry but that seems pretty dumb to me. I don’t get why one position would get more points for doing the same thing just because that position isn’t as good. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah I’m sorry but that seems pretty dumb to me. I don’t get why one position would get more points for doing the same thing just because that position isn’t as good. 

the same reason qbs score 4 pts for a pass td vs 6 for everything else. its to balance the scoring for all positions. now that qb is basically pointless in standard everyone is moving towards superflex to make the qb position valuable instead of waiting till rd 10 to get the most important position in football.

 

i like the idea alot (also would love to do a handful or more of idp with high /equal scoring but its hard with the inj information and most people dont like a challenge/change

Edited by colepenhagen

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah I’m sorry but that seems pretty dumb to me. I don’t get why one position would get more points for doing the same thing just because that position isn’t as good. 

 

Not trying to be snarky, but that's what great about fantasy leagues. If you don't like it, you don't have to play in a league with a setting like this. But other people like it and play in leagues that suit them. If you don't like it or get it, you don't have to play in that type of league. 

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8 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Not trying to be snarky, but that's what great about fantasy leagues. If you don't like it, you don't have to play in a league with a setting like this. But other people like it and play in leagues that suit them. If you don't like it or get it, you don't have to play in that type of league. 

I mean sure. You can play in a league where kickers get 10 points per make for all I care but I or anyone else can also think certain league formats are stupid. 

 

16 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

the same reason qbs score 4 pts for a pass td vs 6 for everything else. its to balance the scoring for all positions. now that qb is basically pointless in standard everyone is moving towards superflex to make the qb position valuable instead of waiting till rd 10 to get the most important position in football.

 

i like the idea alot (also would love to do a handful or more of idp with high /equal scoring but its hard with the inj information and most people dont like a challenge/change


Yeah sorry but that’s not the same thing.

QB TDs are viewed differently across the landscape not just in fantasy. There’s a reason 15 TDs for a QB is terrible but extremely impressive for any other position. A QB is tied to every non rushing TD minus anomalies. 

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I mean sure. You can play in a league where kickers get 10 points per make for all I care but I or anyone else can also think certain league formats are stupid.


Well now you’re just using hyperbole. And I never said you couldn’t think it was stupid. I thinking giving QBs 6pts for a TD is stupid. I think points leagues in baseball are stupid. So I don’t play in leagues like that. You think it’s stupid, and other do not. The thing is, who cares if you think it’s stupid, besides you? So don’t play in leagues with rules you don’t like. Pretty simple. 

Have your final word...I don’t want to derail the Kelce thread any further. 

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