Dirty Little Birdie

2020 Draft Day Must Haves & Reaches

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Tommy Edman-STL...I think he’s a lock for 20/20+his multiple eligibility is huge.

Matt Olsen-OAK...I’m aboard the hype train...250/40/100/100

Max Fried-ATL...20 win..200k season on tap.

Junior Fernandez-STL...Gut feeling.

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Might Reach For - Franmil, McMahon, Wheeler, Maeda, Realmuto, Bichette, JRam, Hiura, Darvish, Kershaw, Vlad, Pham, Ozuna, Lynn, Sanó, Neris, Kela, CMart, Avisaíl, Cron, both Martes.

Must-Haves - Acûna if I get the number 1 pick or he’s available at 2 or 3.

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I got a lot of the guys I was most excited about - Yordan, Vlad Jr., Franmil, Robert, Darvish, Luzardo, Gallen, Cease, a discounted Stanton. I’m all about the freakish ceilings and league winning upside.

 

Missed out on Gleber Torres, Montas, Fried, Lamet, Hiura, Urias, Keller, Murphy (C), Garver, Paddack and Tatis. Consider them in the same huge upside category but ADP was too high in my draft.

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Posted (edited)

I’ll throw in my vote for Sano and Edman too as “reaches”. Paxton is another I’m willing to grab a round or so early.

 

I have the 11th pick in my draft. (12 team league) If I don’t get Trea Turner my must have player is Bo Bichette. Kind of hope I don’t get Turner for that reason. Bichette is just one of the most fun and exciting players in baseball. 

Edited by Cheppy
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Moncada + Eloy! 

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Just reached for Lamet and his 33% K rate over 14 starts last season, so I'll go with him!

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Twins hitters. Second in the Majors in Runs, first in HR, second in OPS, third in wRC+ last season and then they added Donaldson to their lineup. Yet their highest ranked hitter in ADP is Cruz (85) and he’s really underrated. Even with possible regression I want me some shares of Cruz, Rosario (92 ADP), Donaldson (96), Sano (118), Kepler (141), Buxton (158) and Polanco (157) at those ADPs. 

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At this point I'll just be happy to have a draft

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Posted (edited)

Eloy and Yordan. Juiced ball or not, gimmie the mashy mash.

 

edit** And Trent Grisham. Expect to hear that name alot more in the next few years.

Edited by MSkibisky

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10 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

At this point I'll just be happy to have a draft

👍... I know we all want that, I just don’t think that is going to happen. 

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Reaches

Bellinger (.260 once his BABIP normalized with less power)

Eloy/Vlad/Bichette/Yordan (not paying for what they might become one day when sophomore slumps are also likely and none of them had a price worthy season yet)

Kershaw (90 MPH FB/injury history/bad advanced metrics)

 

Verlander/JD (age,decline, injury history or current)

 

Must Haves

 

Acuna/Yelich/Betts (5 cat stud, I want at least 1)

J-Ram (only 5 cat 3B)

Devers (bargain price if I don’t get J-Ram)

Lindor/Story/Tatis (I want one at SS)

Bieber (severely undervalued when he’s a top 5 SP)

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Not sure why I got laughed at for the above.
 

Kershaw isn’t an ace anymore. Since when are a 90mph FB and a 3.86 xFIP impressive? People are paying for the name and team. Razzball jokes about people doing this calling him Mike Fiers.

Vlad and Eloy were fantasy busts based on their price in 2019 and while they can improve, they can also have sophomore slumps. Paying even more for them based on hype is silly. It’s better to pay for proven bats. 


Bellinger in the first half is the Bellinger you’re paying for now, except he did this with a .400 BABIP, once it normalized he batted .260 for the second half and was the 2018 version. Why take him ahead of the likes of Lindor and Betts? 

Bichette has never played a full season in the Majors. People are again paying for hype not reality. 

Verlander has been in decline for years now, it just wasn’t noticed due to his numbers still being good, and now he has injury issues while in his late 30’s. He’s a bigger gamble now. 

JDM had back issues last year, is not far removed from being injury prone and declined last year. 

Based on xFIP, Wins and K/9 Bieber was a top 5 SP last year better than Flaherty and Buehler for example. 

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On 3/11/2020 at 9:32 AM, Sine_cera said:

Twins hitters. Second in the Majors in Runs, first in HR, second in OPS, third in wRC+ last season and then they added Donaldson to their lineup. Yet their highest ranked hitter in ADP is Cruz (85) and he’s really underrated. Even with possible regression I want me some shares of Cruz, Rosario (92 ADP), Donaldson (96), Sano (118), Kepler (141), Buxton (158) and Polanco (157) at those ADPs. 


JD was injured in 2017 and 2018 and is now 34 and moving to a pitcher’s park. He also declined since his prime a few years back. 
 

Cruz is in his 40’s abd can crash any year now. He’s more overrated than underrated. 
 

Rosario had an unimpressive year and was shopped but had little interest from other teams.

 

Garver is either a very late bloomer or a fluke. 
 

Buxton/Sano can’t stay healthy.

Kepler is a platoon bat who had a career year.

 

They almost certainly won’t repeat last season’s success.

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5 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Not sure why I got laughed at for the above.
 

Kershaw isn’t an ace anymore. Since when are a 90mph FB and a 3.86 xFIP impressive? People are paying for the name and team. Razzball jokes about people doing this calling him Mike Fiers.  

Maybe you haven't heard, but Kershaw went to Driveline this offseason and it appears his velocity may be up a bit on his FB. His xFIP was 3.50 last year which was 13th lowest. He's absolutely an ace and if you checked out his average ADP on NFBC drafts this month he's the 12th pitcher off the board (SP1 in 12-team leagues) and in high stakes drafts this month he's had the 32nd highest auction value OVERALL and 11th highest for a pitcher.  His FIP was a 3.86 last year, but he's outperformed his FIP in 10/12 seasons and there's a reason for that. 

 

 

Vlad and Eloy were fantasy busts based on their price in 2019 and while they can improve, they can also have sophomore slumps. Paying even more for them based on hype is silly. It’s better to pay for proven bats 

Firstly, a sophomore slump applies to players who have phenomenal rookie years and then fall off their second year.  Secondly, there is generally an adjustment period before kids who were just called up really take off.  The idea is to be ahead of the curve whilst predicting fantasy greatness.  I'm sure after 2011 many people were doubting Mike Trout's abilities after he hit .220/.281/.390 in his first 40 games in the bigs.  Eloy hit 31 bombs in his rookie year.  Vlad struggled out the gate but it's not a matter of if he CAN improve, he WILL improve. 

 

Bellinger in the first half is the Bellinger you’re paying for now, except he did this with a .400 BABIP, once it normalized he batted .260 for the second half and was the 2018 version. Why take him ahead of the likes of Lindor and Betts? 

Because even in the 2nd half, he was on better than a 40/15 pace.  You can't just completely ignore his 1st half either where he hit a bomb every 3 games.

 

Bichette has never played a full season in the Majors. People are again paying for hype not reality

Check out his projections for this year.  20/20+ with a .275 BA. 

 

Verlander has been in decline for years now, it just wasn’t noticed due to his numbers still being good, and now he has injury issues while in his late 30’s. He’s a bigger gamble now. 

Been in decline for years? What???? He just had his best two years ever.  This makes ZERO sense.

 

JDM had back issues last year, is not far removed from being injury prone and declined last year. 

Again, I'm not seeing a "decline".  Improved his K% in each of the last two years.  Still a big time power bat who hits over .300.  And he just played 145+ games in back to back seasons.

 

Based on xFIP, Wins and K/9 Bieber was a top 5 SP last year better than Flaherty and Buehler for example. 

Can't base EVERYTHING on xFIP, can't base much at all on Wins (even though Biebs only had one more than Buehler), and their K/9's were all super close.

 

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5 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:


JD was injured in 2017 and 2018 and is now 34 and moving to a pitcher’s park. He also declined since his prime a few years back. 
 

Cruz is in his 40’s abd can crash any year now. He’s more overrated than underrated. 
 

Rosario had an unimpressive year and was shopped but had little interest from other teams.

 

Garver is either a very late bloomer or a fluke. 
 

Buxton/Sano can’t stay healthy.

Kepler is a platoon bat who had a career year.

 

They almost certainly won’t repeat last season’s success.

Not sure what to make of these hot takes.  How did Rosario have an unimpressive year?   Also Kepler is not a platoon bat.  Buxton / Sano have massive upside at their ADP.  The injury discount is already baked into their respective ADPs.

 

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1 minute ago, El_Chingon said:

Not sure what to make of these hot takes.  How did Rosario have an unimpressive year?   Also Kepler is not a platoon bat.  Buxton / Sano have massive upside at their ADP.  The injury discount is already baked into their respective ADPs.

 

 

Agreed if Buxton and Sano were 100% healthy last year they'd be going much sooner in terms of ADP.

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20 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Reaches

Bellinger (.260 once his BABIP normalized with less power)

Eloy/Vlad/Bichette/Yordan (not paying for what they might become one day when sophomore slumps are also likely and none of them had a price worthy season yet)

Kershaw (90 MPH FB/injury history/bad advanced metrics)

 

Verlander/JD (age,decline, injury history or current)

 

Must Haves

 

Acuna/Yelich/Betts (5 cat stud, I want at least 1)

J-Ram (only 5 cat 3B)

Devers (bargain price if I don’t get J-Ram)

Lindor/Story/Tatis (I want one at SS)

Bieber (severely undervalued when he’s a top 5 SP)

 

I don't think you understand what a reach is.

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13 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:


JD was injured in 2017 and 2018 and is now 34 and moving to a pitcher’s park. He also declined since his prime a few years back. 
 

Cruz is in his 40’s abd can crash any year now. He’s more overrated than underrated. 
 

Rosario had an unimpressive year and was shopped but had little interest from other teams.

 

Garver is either a very late bloomer or a fluke. 
 

Buxton/Sano can’t stay healthy.

Kepler is a platoon bat who had a career year.

 

They almost certainly won’t repeat last season’s success.

 

Almost certainly? Have you seen the division they play in?

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On 3/17/2020 at 12:23 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

Not sure why I got laughed at for the above

This thread isn't meant to list the players that you think people will reach for and then they will underperform.

I think its supposed to be the players that you are going to reach for, because you think they are worth a lot more than the general public does

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Joey Gallo in any OPS or OBP leagues....even if AVG leagues tbh

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Aaron Civilale in the 13th of a twelve teamer was far too early, but if he merely ‘mimics’ Kluber, Clevinger and/or Bieber, It will have been worth it.

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