DWright5

2020 Fantasy Baseball Strategy Thread

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Posted (edited)

Hi guys, so every year, I feel like I miss out on the big breakout that gets picked up off the wire.  I pay attention to my team, I scour this forum, and I read my favorite fantasy baseball websites.  However, I still feel like I miss out on the breakouts.  I did pick up Lucas Giolito last year, so that was nice.  I feel like my issue is that I am too patient with the guys that I draft.  It's difficult to draft a guy at the end of March and drop one of them 2-3 weeks later for someone who could potentially be a breakout.  Or even if I do drop someone to pick up a guy off the wire, I feel invested in that guy and need to be patient with that guy whereas someone else I didn't think much of gets scooped up and breaks out with another team.

 

I was just wondering how you guys go about this each year.  Is it just sheer luck?  Is there a little more of science to it?  I've been playing fantasy baseball for almost 20 years and finding that next stud breakout off the FA wire is that golden ticket we all want to get, yet it's very difficult.

 

Thanks.

Edited by tonycpsu
Re-titled as a catch-all strategy thread for the 2020 season.

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5 minutes ago, DWright5 said:

Hi guys, so every year, I feel like I miss out on the big breakout that gets picked up off the wire.  I pay attention to my team, I scour this forum, and I read my favorite fantasy baseball websites.  However, I still feel like I miss out on the breakouts.  I did pick up Lucas Giolito last year, so that was nice.  I feel like my issue is that I am too patient with the guys that I draft.  It's difficult to draft a guy at the end of March and drop one of them 2-3 weeks later for someone who could potentially be a breakout.  Or even if I do drop someone to pick up a guy off the wire, I feel invested in that guy and need to be patient with that guy whereas someone else I didn't think much of gets scooped up and breaks out with another team.

 

I was just wondering how you guys go about this each year.  Is it just sheer luck?  Is there a little more of science to it?  I've been playing fantasy baseball for almost 20 years and finding that next stud breakout off the FA wire is that golden ticket we all want to get, yet it's very difficult.

 

Thanks.

Well, a lot of it is luck. I too have a hard time dropping a guy I researched and drafted one or two weeks prior because I believed in him. How many held onto Travis Shaw for WAY too long last season (and rightfully so). It’s no science. It’s a hard balance. 

That said, there’s one rule I try to follow: Pick up skill set, not stats.

What I mean by this is I’m not always chasing the guy who hit two HRs the first week of the season (while many of my league mates are). I’m looking for the guy who suddenly seems to have a better approach and is now walking more and striking out less. Same with pitchers. If a pitcher has a couple of mediocre starts and a 4ish ERA, but I’m seeing 14 Ks/2 BB from a guy who previously had BB problems, I’m snatching him up.

 

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8 minutes ago, DWright5 said:

I was just wondering how you guys go about this each year.  Is it just sheer luck?  Is there a little more of science to it?  I've been playing fantasy baseball for almost 20 years and finding that next stud breakout off the FA wire is that golden ticket we all want to get, yet it's very difficult.

 

I think it's a two-fold thing. 

#1 Understand and accept that it is just not possible to hit every breakout, or even most of them.  Your league mates are trying as hard as you are to do the same thing, and will sometimes be in a righter place at a righter time than you.  It is what it is, be thankful for the ones you DO get and don't sweat the ones you don't.

 

#2 Patience vs Stubbornness.  I try to have a basic idea of what I'm looking for out of a guy to "keep" him, and if he's showing signs of getting there, I try to have confidence in my process of evaluation.  If they're NOT hitting even the "getting there" benchmarks, then I try to remind myself that the roster spot would likely be more useful with a functional player than some unprovided upside.  If they were THAT highly thought of, let someone else pay you WHATEVER they want to take him, then pick up a replacement.  If you get to that move on point, shop the name around.  A lot of the time, you can get something for nothing that way...

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A lot of it is luck to be quite honest. Only thing you can do is make calculated gambles at the draft room and go for high upside late in draft. At same time try to identify early breakouts on the wire by looking at the underlying metrics not just average or ERA for example. Its simple to say but hard to do in practice.

Always a tough act to balance guys you drafted who struggle early. Again I would pivot to the underlying stats to get the full picture if players struggles are due to small sample or they have a bad approach.

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Posted (edited)

Scour these forums! There are a lot of people on here that really know and understand analytics. I wasn’t a believer at first and reading analytics is essentially ancient Hebrew to me, but it tends to help pick out those better players for the long run, versus those just on a hot streak.

For example, these forums helped me nab Hunter Dozier around April when he was hovering around a .200 average and just a couple home runs last year.

Of course, as others have mentioned, a lot of luck is involved, both good and bad.

Edited by charger_ss24

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Not trying to hijack this thread but I'm assuming this the official strategy thread?  

So I'm just curious how long most people are waiting to take their first SP?   

I've always been someone who waits on pitching and it's driving me nuts this year that I have to take one so early.  I've tried doing some mocks where I wait until the 4th or 5th rounds and I have to admit that I don't hate how it shapes up. It's a 10 team league so I've been able to snag Clevinger who I would have considered taking higher anyway if not for the injury.  Then I've been able to bookend him with someone like Giolito, Paddack, etc.  

Anyway, just curious if anyone else is considering that strategy?

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4 hours ago, DWright5 said:

Hi guys, so every year, I feel like I miss out on the big breakout that gets picked up off the wire.  I pay attention to my team, I scour this forum, and I read my favorite fantasy baseball websites.  However, I still feel like I miss out on the breakouts.  I did pick up Lucas Giolito last year, so that was nice.  I feel like my issue is that I am too patient with the guys that I draft.  It's difficult to draft a guy at the end of March and drop one of them 2-3 weeks later for someone who could potentially be a breakout.  Or even if I do drop someone to pick up a guy off the wire, I feel invested in that guy and need to be patient with that guy whereas someone else I didn't think much of gets scooped up and breaks out with another team.

 

I was just wondering how you guys go about this each year.  Is it just sheer luck?  Is there a little more of science to it?  I've been playing fantasy baseball for almost 20 years and finding that next stud breakout off the FA wire is that golden ticket we all want to get, yet it's very difficult.

 

Thanks.

The trick is to do your research on as many players as you can, then closely monitor minor leaguers and player‘s production as the season goes on. Specifically the guys you “keep an eye on”. Don’t get too attached to any of your players and focus on getting the studs, so everyone else is expendable all season (I’m talking about standard redraft leagues). In a dynasty or keeper league you have to do your research and pay close attention to know who to target in trades. Personally I’m typically aware of how every Major Leaguer is doing as the season goes on, and if I notice a pattern of good games, I do research to see if the player is “for real”.

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3 hours ago, DFWSooner said:

Not trying to hijack this thread but I'm assuming this the official strategy thread?  

So I'm just curious how long most people are waiting to take their first SP?   

I've always been someone who waits on pitching and it's driving me nuts this year that I have to take one so early.  I've tried doing some mocks where I wait until the 4th or 5th rounds and I have to admit that I don't hate how it shapes up. It's a 10 team league so I've been able to snag Clevinger who I would have considered taking higher anyway if not for the injury.  Then I've been able to bookend him with someone like Giolito, Paddack, etc.  

Anyway, just curious if anyone else is considering that strategy?

I don’t do drafts, but on auctions I always target the aces. In a draft, I would still prioritize elite bats and simply taking the best player available to you at the time of your pick that fits your team’s needs the most.

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I'm weekly H2H points so pitchers are already the prime commodity but if we're looking at a compressed season (lots of double headers) then having a strong and deep pitching rotation will be a huge advantage. There will be more two-start schedules than normal so if you can constantly throw up quality arms doing that it would be lethal.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, GrapeJuice said:

I'm weekly H2H points so pitchers are already the prime commodity but if we're looking at a compressed season (lots of double headers) then having a strong and deep pitching rotation will be a huge advantage. There will be more two-start schedules than normal so if you can constantly throw up quality arms doing that it would be lethal.

 

I haven't read a whole lot of what MLB's strategy is going to be to get in as many games as possible. Is it widely accepted that there are going to be a lot of doubleheaders? I just came across the following: the current CBA allows for just one pre-scheduled day-night doubleheader — which allows for two games and two sets of fans in attendance — and three twi-night doubleheaders — in which two games are played, with one in the afternoon followed immediately by another at night — per season.

 

In reading threads on Rotoworld, I've felt more convinced that with the shortened season, elite arms are substantially nullified, because innings limits won't be an issue for rookie pitchers. And guys that normally throw 125-150 innings are more on equal footing with top tier pitchers, because from a numbers standpoint, it is highly likely that there will be more pitchers that will throw max innings in a shortened season. 

Edited by twentyone
found another piece of supporting info

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If a player has success for more than a short period I do a Google search with that player's name and the word "success".  I select the Google option for articles in the past month/week" (found under "Tools", "Any Time").  Often times there will be an article about what exactly what is going on with the player and whether the success might continue.  It worked beautifully for me last season with Lucas Giolito.

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On 3/16/2020 at 9:49 AM, GrapeJuice said:

I'm weekly H2H points so pitchers are already the prime commodity but if we're looking at a compressed season (lots of double headers) then having a strong and deep pitching rotation will be a huge advantage. There will be more two-start schedules than normal so if you can constantly throw up quality arms doing that it would be lethal.

To that end...isn't it typical that teams don't use a traditional "closer" in both ends of a DH if they have two save situations in a row?

I haven't done the research, maybe someone has.

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

To that end...isn't it typical that teams don't use a traditional "closer" in both ends of a DH if they have two save situations in a row?

I haven't done the research, maybe someone has.

 

Nah ive seen Chapman and other closers get 2 saves in one day several times, if we get to a loaded schedule with tons of DH's could see it happening a lot more but the RP's would need an extra day off or something im sure

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