meh2

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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I just think back to the end of February about how much has changed the past month and have a hard time believing anyone, whether "rosy" or "grim" outlook, really has a handle on what things will look like April 30th.

It's ok to try your best to understand and plan and also admit we just don't know what's going to happen.  No one here is Nostradamus.

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

It's ok to try your best to understand and plan and also admit we just don't know what's going to happen.  No one here is Nostradamus.

 

Of course not, but when we don't have a crystal ball and are not ourselves experts, we can use the consensus of experts to at least build a range of outcomes, similar to how we rely on projections to try to estimate what a player will do based on past performance.  Throughout this crisis, there has been a wide range of epidemiological forecasts in terms of deaths and cases in the US, but the general consensus of experts was something on the order of millions of cases and tens or hundreds of thousands dead.  So when people were coming in with hot takes about how it will be tens of thousands of cases and perhaps hundreds or maybe a few thousand dead -- which are actual things people have been saying -- it's far more irresponsible than choosing an estimate that's well within the fat part of the range of outcomes predicted by scientists.

In some respect, we're all just trying to grapple with the scale of what we're dealing with, since the worst case is scary, and the impact it's had on our lives is significant.  But those who do so in line with expert opinion are on firmer ground than those who reject the authority of expert opinion.  Forecasting a pandemic is way harder in some respects than forecasting player performance, but also easier in some respects, in that the spread boils down to mathematical models, and as long as you have a handle on the variables in those models and keep them up to date, you can converge on the truth.

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30 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Of course not, but when we don't have a crystal ball and are not ourselves experts, we can use the consensus of experts to at least build a range of outcomes, similar to how we rely on projections to try to estimate what a player will do based on past performance.  Throughout this crisis, there has been a wide range of epidemiological forecasts in terms of deaths and cases in the US, but the general consensus of experts was something on the order of millions of cases and tens or hundreds of thousands dead.  So when people were coming in with hot takes about how it will be tens of thousands of cases and perhaps hundreds or maybe a few thousand dead -- which are actual things people have been saying -- it's far more irresponsible than choosing an estimate that's well within the fat part of the range of outcomes predicted by scientists.

In some respect, we're all just trying to grapple with the scale of what we're dealing with, since the worst case is scary, and the impact it's had on our lives is significant.  But those who do so in line with expert opinion are on firmer ground than those who reject the authority of expert opinion.  Forecasting a pandemic is way harder in some respects than forecasting player performance, but also easier in some respects, in that the spread boils down to mathematical models, and as long as you have a handle on the variables in those models and keep them up to date, you can converge on the truth.

That's fair.

I guess I'm just growing weary of "#hottakes" writ large.  I feel like some folks just want to "call their shot" so to speak, so they can say, "see, I told you there would be no baseball season back on March whateverith" or "see, I told you this would all blow over back on March whateverith" and there's just no value for being gleaned by spinning around three times and throwing a dart at a dartboard and celebrating when it hits.

There's a lot I've learned from this thread, and I am appreciative of actual information being provided.  But I have to admit I'm also a little frustrated by the "Bold Predictions: Covid-19 Edition" posts.  That's all.

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On 3/25/2020 at 12:07 PM, Sidearmer said:

 

Sounds like MLB will soon be announcing more concrete plans. If Mish is correct, and weekly double headers become a thing, this can drastically effect a lot of teams. Would almost necessitate a 6 man rotation.

 

If they're going to cut the rounds than I would think players association should argue signing bonuses should be increased drastically.

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2 hours ago, FouLLine said:

If they're going to cut the rounds than I would think players association should argue signing bonuses should be increased drastically.

MLB already announced how they are handling the draft.  Re-posting my post quoting this article from several pages back.

Quote
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Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Major League Baseball owners have voted unanimously to ratify the deal with the Players Association.

The agreement was first reported Thursday after being approved by the players and now it's official after the owners gave it the go-ahead. Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that the players and league agreed that the 2020 season won't start until "there are no bans on mass gatherings that limit the ability to play in front of fans, there are no travel restrictions and medical experts determine games will not pose a risk to health of teams and fans." Passan does add that the two sides "will consider the feasibility of playing in empty stadiums" and also at neutral sites. The players will be advanced $170 million for the months of April and May and the money can be kept if the season is canceled, service time will be pro-rated and the international signing period can be pushed back from July to January. Additionally, the Draft has been shortened to five rounds and picks will only receive $100,000 of their bonuses in 2020.

Source: Joel Sherman on Twitter                     Mar 27, 2020, 12:31 PM ET

Since this was 2 days after the other post and an official announcement then no it will not be 10 rounds.  It will be 5 rounds.  And whatever bonuses they will get overall they will only get the 100K this year as a down payment on same.

 

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I live in Toronto. Our mayor just cancelled public events until June 30. The Jays will not be playing a home game until July 1 at best

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that the players and league agreed that the 2020 season won't start until "there are no bans on mass gatherings that limit the ability to play in front of fans, there are no travel restrictions and medical experts determine games will not pose a risk to health of teams and fans.

If that's really a sticking point then getting in any of the season in seems super unlikely. 

 

1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

the two sides "will consider the feasibility of playing in empty stadiums"

They're going to have to do a lot more than just consider it if they want to play a meaningful chunk of games before summer ends. States like CA, NY, WA etc are most likely not going to allow huge crowds to gather any time soon.

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7 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I live in Toronto. Our mayor just cancelled public events until June 30. The Jays will not be playing a home game until July 1 at best

Yep

 

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1 minute ago, Blood Brother said:

Yep

 

I kinda figured the most optimistic outlook was spring training mid June the season starting July before that. Now that seals it.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Major League Baseball owners have voted unanimously to ratify the deal with the Players Association.

The agreement was first reported Thursday after being approved by the players and now it's official after the owners gave it the go-ahead. Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that the players and league agreed that the 2020 season won't start until "there are no bans on mass gatherings that limit the ability to play in front of fans, there are no travel restrictions and medical experts determine games will not pose a risk to health of teams and fans." Passan does add that the two sides "will consider the feasibility of playing in empty stadiums" and also at neutral sites. The players will be advanced $170 million for the months of April and May and the money can be kept if the season is canceled, service time will be pro-rated and the international signing period can be pushed back from July to January. Additionally, the Draft has been shortened to five rounds and picks will only receive $100,000 of their bonuses in 2020.

Source: Joel Sherman on Twitter                     Mar 27, 2020, 12:31 PM ET

 

 

All of this is final?  The players are getting screwed so hard...

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19 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I live in Toronto. Our mayor just cancelled public events until June 30. The Jays will not be playing a home game until July 1 at best

There will be no baseball in 2020, we can only hope & pray that 2021 is virus free. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

There will be no baseball in 2020, we can only hope & pray that 2021 is virus free. 

Um. That is never going to happen. There will be a point where economic shut does more damage. Right now we are just safe guarding our health care system and that's more important then a moving economy.

We want to get to where it's a lot more manageable. Understand the virus better to come up with better measures. There probably will be a 2nd wave before that happens. I'm afraid.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Posted (edited)

Until we have a vaccine (still an "if") this virus is simply going to be part of our worldwide panoply of health concerns.  At some point, even without a vaccine, "herd immunity" will kick in to limit the number of serious cases ... but herd immunity will require a truly scary number of infections before it occurs.

Once we have a vaccine it will continue to be a problem in areas without access to the vaccine. 

I hope the bat soup and/or pangolin stew was worth it. 

Edited by Overlord
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1 hour ago, Blood Brother said:

Yep

 

 

how can anyone ban things so far in the future when nobody knows what is going to happen.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Um. That is never going to happen. There will be a point where economic shut does more damage. Right now we are just safe guarding our health care system and that's more important then a moving economy.

We want to get to where it's a lot more manageable. Understand the virus better to come up with better measures. There probably will be a 2nd wave before that happens. I'm afraid.

 

Yeah, we have to try to grasp the goals.  

Based on my limited understanding, a very large % of us, maybe a large majority, will get the virus eventually.  The goal isn't really to prevent that from happening so much as to spread it out.  I'm certainly for social distancing and shut downs, but there is SOME point where we open things up, knowing many will  be exposed and it can't be much more than a couple months from now, again, based on my limited understanding, without the economy really starting to crumble. 

Interesting/scary to think about if the virus was much more lethal and we really had to stay locked up until it was cured.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

how can anyone ban things so far in the future when nobody knows what is going to happen.

 

 

 

They could always lift it early.

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3 minutes ago, GamblorLA said:

 

Yeah, we have to try to grasp the goals.  

Based on my limited understanding, a very large % of us, maybe a large majority, will get the virus eventually.  The goal isn't really to prevent that from happening so much as to spread it out.  I'm certainly for social distancing and shut downs, but there is SOME point where we open things up, knowing many will  be exposed and it can't be much more than a couple months from now, again, based on my limited understanding, without the economy really starting to crumble. 

Interesting/scary to think about if the virus was much more lethal and we really had to stay locked up until it was cured.

 

 

This is my understanding as well.

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On 3/30/2020 at 5:32 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

1. Both Florida AND Arizona are going to be hard hit.  More numbers in Florida of course but the stuff is spreading like anything in Arizona as well.

2. MLB REAL games played in spring training parks is a joke.  An ace pitcher will end up with an ERA close to 6.0.  It will make the last year's London Yanks-Sox series look like a pitchers duel.

I was channel surfing tonight and Fox Sports was showing a "live" football game on.  For real.  It was a video game.  Michael Vick vs some Seahawks guy playing Madden Football.  The Seahawks guy was massacring Vick's Ravens until the connections went down no doubt from Vick's end. 

It was weird.  We had multiple camera angles, replays etc.  I know there are real video game tournaments on TV but to see Madden Football on Fox Sports was too funny.

I don't know if there is any baseball game up to Madden Football standards but I could see this season being played on the MLB Network / Fox Sports / ESPN featuring live video action of the Yankees vs the Red Sox being played on home couches by Derek Jeter and David Ortiz.  Or how about an inter-league match-up featuring Cal Ripkin's O's vs Chipper Jones' Braves?  And current players sidelined now could do it too.  Like how about David Price could go up against ... oh never mind.  He is too busy playing fortnite to bother with a baseball video game.

My reactions to this video season would probably go along something like this:

😁😝🙃🤔🤥😪🤢

 

 

I didn't know that about AZ parks.  Southern California occurred to me earlier.  3 MLB parks within 2-3 hours of each other (esp with reduced traffic).  There are a number of minor league teams and division 1 colleges.  Some of those parks might be unacceptable, but I'd be surprised if there weren't 7-8 usable ones.  They played baseball at The Coliseum back in the day, so they might be able to get away with using some soccer and football stadiums.  

 

Fantasy could get zany if you've got one team playing most of their games at petco and another one making frequent use of a couple college/milb stadiums that are like coors when it first opened.  

 

It might rub people the wrong way or be bad PR, but I wonder if they could generate some decent money selling a handful of tickets at very high prices.  There have to be rich people who'd get off on paying $5k to have the only seats behind home plate, or something like that.  Hell, you could sit maybe 10-15 feet from the players and maybe verbally interact with them a bit.  

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47 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

They could always lift it early.

 

even if they do that there are already going to be people going by what they said first.

even if there is baseball at all this season at a point where we don't have to worry about Coronavirus anymore (if that happens) attendance is going to be horrible because thousands if not millions of people are going to remain terrified of going anywhere.

Bubble Boy (2001) would be a good movie right about now because that could be our future with the only way some will wan to go outside.

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Canada's largest city, Toronto, announced Tuesday it is canceling all city-led and permitted events through June 30 amid the coronavirus pandemic.

 

Don Peat, a spokesman for the mayor, said it applies to events that get city permits like parades and festivals and does not include sports events like the Blue Jays, Raptors and Maple Leafs..

 

https://news.yahoo.com/toronto-cancels-city-led-permitted-212117173.html

 

 

That being said, I still don't see baseball being played in 2020

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5 hours ago, Overlord said:

Until we have a vaccine (still an "if") this virus is simply going to be part of our worldwide panoply of health concerns.  At some point, even without a vaccine, "herd immunity" will kick in to limit the number of serious cases ... but herd immunity will require a truly scary number of infections before it occurs.

Once we have a vaccine it will continue to be a problem in areas without access to the vaccine. 

I hope the bat soup and/or pangolin stew was worth it. 

3uvp3r.jpg

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I need to get the baseball movies lined up.  I hate this.  Think I'll start with Major League or maybe Rookie of the Year.

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56 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

I need to get the baseball movies lined up.  I hate this.  Think I'll start with Major League or maybe Rookie of the Year.

 

Everybody Wants Some!! is a great baseball subplot movie from director Richard Linklater. (Dazed and Confused). Doesn't seem like many people have seen it or talk about it. 

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