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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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4 minutes ago, jonninho said:

Passan did an interview which kind of made me laugh... the reporter had made mention of something similiar, that the idea of having players away from their families is absolutely crazy and that no one is going to agree to it.. which Passan stopped the reporter, agreed with him, before going on to say a player who had spoken to shared similiar thoughts.. the next morning.. that player texted him and stated his wife was ok with him going if it meant getting paid.. lol... gold digging putas.

I mean, there have been many people who have had to leave their families in order to work for long periods of time before this.

Generally speaking they are already on the road for at least 81 days a year regardless.

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1 hour ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Lol it’s not a fatal disease for the vast majority of people. They’re hot going to pass up millions of dollars for a vaccine they don’t need. 

 

I don't think you can speak for the vast majority of people.   The vast majority of people on this thread can't agree on basic stuff.

A vaccine is the only thing that will ensure the safety of the majority and that is going to take some time to develop.

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7 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

I don't think you can speak for the vast majority of people.   The vast majority of people on this thread can't agree on basic stuff.

A vaccine is the only thing that will ensure the safety of the majority and that is going to take some time to develop.

 

The safety of the majority is not in question. It's the safety of a minority. That minority amounts to a few million (perhaps) so the concern is not undue. 

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16 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

I don't think you can speak for the vast majority of people.   The vast majority of people on this thread can't agree on basic stuff.

A vaccine is the only thing that will ensure the safety of the majority and that is going to take some time to develop.

I’m talking about the vast majority of people in the country. Who according to the CDC have less than 1% chance or dying from Covid-19.

 

 

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They admitted they are still just spitballing this:

Quote

MLB released a statement Tuesday saying that while they have discussed various contingency plans for the season, they haven't settled on one particular option or a detailed plan.

The statement was released in response to a report from Jeff Passan of ESPN which suggested that play could begin as soon as May with all teams operating out of Arizona. MLB acknowledged Tuesday that playing all games in a centralized location is on the table as an option. However, they haven't "sought or received approval of any plan from federal, state, and local officials, or the Players Association." Furthermore, MLB emphasized that they don't plan to start the season until it's safe enough to do so. In the end, it sounds like the scenario floated in Passan's report is just one of many being discussed.

Source: MLB Communications on Twitter                            Apr 7, 2020, 10:59 AM ET

This thing isn't gonna fly.  If one player gets it he just doesn't go off for 14 days and then comes back like it is an IL stint.  The people that have to be quarantined are anyone around him for at least 14 days because they may not test positive fro up to 14 days which means the whole team and those other teams he has played. 

Also seating players in the stands is nice but how does a runner maintain social distancing at 1B without being picked off?  Does the ball the pitcher handles get changed somehow before the batter hits it to the SS who then has to handle the same ball?  And the poor catchers are going to be in harm's way the whole game they are in the field.

Back to an infected player.  The player can't come back until he is completely recovered and no longer contagious and no one is sure when that is.  They are seeing now that so-called recovered patients can still transmit the disease over a month into the process in some cases.  Just because you are over it may not mean you can't still transmit it.  Also the disease itself according to people interviewed who have had or now have it can be mild up to the worst pain they ever experienced in their lives. 

And some small preliminary studies have shown that some of those recovered could have permanent damage to their lungs for the rest of their lives.  How does shortness of breath work for a star athlete's career trajectory?  Legal suits will abound if that happens.

And again 20 or 30 somebodys without any underlying conditions do have a very good chance of surviving but it is not a 100% chance.  Completely healthy people in that age range have been dying as well so you are playing Russian roulette with a lot of human beings here.  And though I'm sure MLB and other pro sports would force players to sign some legal document about them not being able to sue the sport should deaths or damaged lungs occur I am also sure that a lot of sharp lawyers out there will be willing to challenge such a document in courts.  And probably win.

Then there is the PR look of fat cat millionaire athletes getting endless daily coronavirus tests when the rest of us can't get one test even with dire symptoms.  Yes they are "developing" new ones.  But they are NOT in the pipelines yet and the pipeline has failed to get the current tests anywhere quickly.  Also new tests haven't been scientifically tested to assure the results are highly accurate.  The current one, which is far more sophisticated and should be the gold standard having been around a longish time, is showing it isn't too accurate.  One small study showed that 47% of the negative results were wrong and almost half the people told they were fine actually had covid-19 in that study.

To put all this effort into an entertainment where the players are still receiving at least partial salaries and no one of them is going to go homeless or hungry while huge numbers of the rest of the country face just that and are also desperate for tests they can't get is the height of ethical obscenity to me and I love baseball.  To get all into bubble boy land -- and as we all know things ALWAYS slip through the cracks and there is NO PERFECT BUBBLE -- over a mere game during the 21st century version of the Black Plague just seems the very definition of insanity.

It isn't going to kill anyone -- both figuratively AND literally -- to wait a few extra months and see how it is going both with the disease and the number of tests then available and studies on recovery times and long term post-lung scarring etc etc instead of trying to rush a harebrained scenario out into some 120 degrees at dawn desert area where the locals may well be up in arms at the increased risk being brought into their lives as well..

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15 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

They admitted they are still just spitballing this:

This thing isn't gonna fly.  If one player gets it he just doesn't go off for 14 days and then comes back like it is an IL stint.  The people that have to be quarantined are anyone around him for at least 14 days because they may not test positive fro up to 14 days which means the whole team and those other teams he has played. 

Also seating players in the stands is nice but how does a runner maintain social distancing at 1B without being picked off?  Does the ball the pitcher handles get changed somehow before the batter hits it to the SS who then has to handle the same ball?  And the poor catchers are going to be in harm's way the whole game they are in the field.

Back to an infected player.  The player can't come back until he is completely recovered and no longer contagious and no one is sure when that is.  They are seeing now that so-called recovered patients can still transmit the disease over a month into the process in some cases.  Just because you are over it may not mean you can't still transmit it.  Also the disease itself according to people interviewed who have had or now have it can be mild up to the worst pain they ever experienced in their lives. 

And some small preliminary studies have shown that some of those recovered could have permanent damage to their lungs for the rest of their lives.  How does shortness of breath work for a star athlete's career trajectory?  Legal suits will abound if that happens.

And again 20 or 30 somebodys without any underlying conditions do have a very good chance of surviving but it is not a 100% chance.  Completely healthy people in that age range have been dying as well so you are playing Russian roulette with a lot of human beings here.  And though I'm sure MLB and other pro sports would force players to sign some legal document about them not being able to sue the sport should deaths or damaged lungs occur I am also sure that a lot of sharp lawyers out there will be willing to challenge such a document in courts.  And probably win.

Then there is the PR look of fat cat millionaire athletes getting endless daily coronavirus tests when the rest of us can't get one test even with dire symptoms.  Yes they are "developing" new ones.  But they are NOT in the pipelines yet and the pipeline has failed to get the current tests anywhere quickly.  Also new tests haven't been scientifically tested to assure the results are highly accurate.  The current one, which is far more sophisticated and should be the gold standard having been around a longish time, is showing it isn't too accurate.  One small study showed that 47% of the negative results were wrong and almost half the people told they were fine actually had covid-19 in that study.

To put all this effort into an entertainment where the players are still receiving at least partial salaries and no one of them is going to go homeless or hungry while huge numbers of the rest of the country face just that and are also desperate for tests they can't get is the height of ethical obscenity to me and I love baseball.  To get all into bubble boy land -- and as we all know things ALWAYS slip through the cracks and there is NO PERFECT BUBBLE -- over a mere game during the 21st century version of the Black Plague just seems the very definition of insanity.

It isn't going to kill anyone -- both figuratively AND literally -- to wait a few extra months and see how it is going both with the disease and the number of tests then available and studies on recovery times and long term post-lung scarring etc etc instead of trying to rush a harebrained scenario out into some 120 degrees at dawn desert area where the locals may well be up in arms at the increased risk being brought into their lives as well..

 

1_6jqVG6RvAKA0ebf9zW3JYg.jpeg

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14 minutes ago, KCTD25 said:

 

1_6jqVG6RvAKA0ebf9zW3JYg.jpeg

I LOLed.

Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, I respect skepticism that this concept is in it's infancy and might be half baked.

IDK if lawyers are gonna matter.  They can hardly get the ball rolling for concussions in football so I doubt they get much traction here.

I also am not sure if the policy of 14 day quarantines for anyone who tests positive for everyone on the field is going to be as ironclad as OP is envisioning just because that's what the NBA and politicians did, but I could be wrong.

I suspect they'll find a way to play baseball this year this way or another way because it's just too many dollars and TV eyeballs to leave on the table not to find a way.  But I think we all know the public health and logistical elements might be impossible to overcome.  Guess we'll see.

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37 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I LOLed.

Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, I respect skepticism that this concept is in it's infancy and might be half baked.

IDK if lawyers are gonna matter.  They can hardly get the ball rolling for concussions in football so I doubt they get much traction here.

I also am not sure if the policy of 14 day quarantines for anyone who tests positive for everyone on the field is going to be as ironclad as OP is envisioning just because that's what the NBA and politicians did, but I could be wrong.

I suspect they'll find a way to play baseball this year this way or another way because it's just too many dollars and TV eyeballs to leave on the table not to find a way.  But I think we all know the public health and logistical elements might be impossible to overcome.  Guess we'll see.

Passan noted multiple times that this idea has the backing of high level federal health officials. That in itself speaks volumes..

Further more, today, players like Arenado (among others) voiced their opinions and approved the idea of playing in Arizona... AS LONG AS IT IS SAFE.. 

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Posted (edited)

Go back and look what happened last month.  On March 11th Rudy Gobert was diagnosed with coronavirus.  Even though the whole team shared a locker room only Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were confirmed to be positive for the virus.

By March 27th both players were cleared and the whole team and team personnel were cleared.  So even though the whole team shared a confined space locker room only 2 players tested positive and were cleared 16 days later.

So I think if 1 player gets the virus its not going to infect the whole team.

Edited by Short Porch
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Also seating players in the stands is nice but how does a runner maintain social distancing at 1B without being picked off?

 

I guess it would be no different than how a customer and a cash register clerk are unable to socially distance. Yea, I get it, shopping for food has to be done but this particular example seems kinda nitpicky. The runner is a few feet away, they don't talk to one another, if you have to sneeze, step further away from the other person. Maybe this means all the fast guys won't get it since they always have a large lead (I kid)

 

But I imagine I've probably been more at risk standing next to strangers in aisle 7 at Target these last few weeks than a player would be standing on 1st base.

Edited by UberRebel
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30 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

 

 

this would be interesting if Dr. Fauci buys off on it, given the cache he's built up. There would probably still be push back, but that's about as good as an endorsement from the health community as you can get

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I'm trying to work out the pitching thing.  I'm still drafting a bunch of best ball leagues because I enjoy it even if the season doesn't go, so I'm looking at it through that lens a little. 

In a condensed season, with fewer days off and more double headers, I think the bottom line is we will see quite a few innings pitched by guys who might normally be in the minors or on the fringe of the roster or rotation.  So our stars pitch a lower % of all innings.  Maybe we'll see more position players pitching in blow outs.  

My non-expert assumption is that most fantasy relevant pitchers are close to optimized in terms of their innings per/week and innings per/year.  Those numbers shouldn't really change much.  Basically a guy can have x number of innings or outings per week, whether the team plays 2 games or 20.  

With lack of preparation, it might be fewer innings early.  Maybe, knowing the season long total will be lower, the weekly total can go up a little once everyone is locked in, but I wouldn't expect it to change dramatically.  

From a season long perspective, guys who crap out or get cut off obviously go up in value, as many have observed.  Chris Paddack or McCullers.  But I don't think the difference between them and a bigger innings eater is erased.  IP/start matters more than IP for a year now.   A guy who often goes 7-9 innings is still worth a lot more than a guy who goes 5-6.  A guy who usually makes 32 starts vs a guy who makes 28 is complicated.  If it's because the total number of innings/starts is capped or because they usually flag near the end of the season, then that guy should benefit.  If it is because the player is injury prone or takes time off throughout the season I think they benefit less. So, I'd expect Paddack to benefit though they'll still probably use SOME caution.  I'd expect a guy like Kershaw or Stras benefits a little but, but not as much. I guess they'd still take time off due to a combination of being injury prone and maybe having a bit more of a big picture philosophy.

 

I figure guys in 5th/6th rotation spots win.  Your 6th starters should get a few extra starts and your 5th starters are less likely to lose their spots.  I have some concern that the 5th starter gets a bit diluted as the back of the rotation, long relief and openers get all mixed together into a stew.  But, ultimately, there is going to be a scarcity of mediocre innings pitched, so guys who can do that should be in business.  

 

Do closers move up?  I think a lot of the elite closers are in the same boat as SPs in that their clubs already use them about as much as they can get away with. What I think happens with closers is that they flatten the curve.   

Every team is going to see more save opportunities per week.  So your Osuna's and Chapmans should do a little better relative to starters because their plates will always be full.  But at the same time, sometimes a little extra grub is going to fall off that plate.  Meaning, there will be times where they've just been used too much and the save goes to someone else.

The biggest beneficiaries in all of this will be closers on bad teams.  They will gain relative to starters because they will have more weeks with full opportunities.  They will gain relative to closers on good teams, because those guys will get a lower % of their teams saves.

 

Of course, closers on bad teams are often a pain because either 1) they are bad themselves or 2) if they are good, they get traded to be set up men, but that's always true.  In season long roto, I think your Ian Kennedy types are probably going to gain a lot of value.  It's still hard in best ball because when they lose their closer gigs, they are complete dead spots on your roster when even a guy like John Lester or Mike Leake will occasionally have a good start. 

 

One more reason I'd love the season to go off.  Trying to adjust to a shakeup makes playing a lot more fun.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I LOLed.

Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, I respect skepticism that this concept is in it's infancy and might be half baked.

IDK if lawyers are gonna matter.  They can hardly get the ball rolling for concussions in football so I doubt they get much traction here.

I also am not sure if the policy of 14 day quarantines for anyone who tests positive for everyone on the field is going to be as ironclad as OP is envisioning just because that's what the NBA and politicians did, but I could be wrong.

I suspect they'll find a way to play baseball this year this way or another way because it's just too many dollars and TV eyeballs to leave on the table not to find a way.  But I think we all know the public health and logistical elements might be impossible to overcome.  Guess we'll see.

That is what everyone in America is ordered to do.  Not just the NBA.  If you have been in known contact with anyone that tested positive for covid-19 you are to self-quarantine for 14 days.  Period.  Ironclad.  People that ignore this and don't self-quarantine are the very ones that are causing this damn plague.  Because the virus is ONLY spread by people.

1 hour ago, UberRebel said:

I guess it would be no different than how a customer and a cash register clerk are unable to socially distance. Yea, I get it, shopping for food has to be done but this particular example seems kinda nitpicky. The runner is a few feet away, they don't talk to one another, if you have to sneeze, step further away from the other person. Maybe this means all the fast guys won't get it since they always have a large lead (I kid)

But I imagine I've probably been more at risk standing next to strangers in aisle 7 at Target these last few weeks than a player would be standing on 1st base.

So the 1B and the runner at 1B should both wear masks and the 1B should be behind plexiglass.  Okay, problem solved.  (And yes we do have to eat and no we don't have to watch baseball within the next month or two.  How did the human race survive for thousands of years without this game, sigh).

Yeah nit picky.  That is exactly HOW epidemics are stopped.  The virus doesn't fall from the sky like rain.  It doesn't spring up from the ground like weeds.  It is transmitted by people many of whom do very stupid things like not practicing social distancing.

Also on a lighter but still deadly note.  How do you keep ballplayers from spitting all over the place?  God they can't get through the national anthem without projecting spit wads every which way.  Add in sunflower seed shells zinging around and Gatoraide-like products flying out of their mouths and they are the very definition of a band of plague rats.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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5 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

That is what everyone in America is ordered to do.  Not just the NBA.  If you have been in known contact with anyone that tested positive for covid-19 you are to self-quarantine for 14 days.  Period.  Ironclad.  People that ignore this and don't self-quarantine are the very ones that are causing this damn plague.  Because the virus is ONLY spread by people.

So the 1B and the runner at 1B should both wear masks and the 1B should be behind plexiglass.  Okay, problem solved.  (And yes we do have to eat and no we don't have to watch baseball within the next month or two.  How did the human race survive for thousands of years without this game, sigh).

Yeah nit picky.  That is exactly HOW epidemics are stopped.  The virus doesn't fall from the sky like rain.  It doesn't spring up from the ground like weeds.  It is transmitted by people many of whom do very stupid things like not practicing social distancing.

You’re still conflating here. The country isn’t shutting down with masks and social distancing and only essential places open until there’s a vaccine. That has NEVER been the plan. We are not shutting down the country for two full years. We aren’t getting rid of it.

The plan has ALWAYS been to flatten the curve. Get it to a point that it doesn’t overwhelm the HC systems. That’s it. Until there’s a vaccine. So once we get past the peak, and see the curve flattening (and of course extending out for a longer period), we will slowly see things return. Will people not shake hands, be more aware of door knobs, and possibly keep wearing masks at stores? Probably. But our country will start moving forward again, likely in May or June. 

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10 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

 

Also on a lighter but still deadly note.  How do you keep ballplayers from spitting all over the place?  God they can't get through the national anthem without projecting spit wads every which way.  Add in sunflower seed shells zinging around and Gatoraide-like products flying out of their mouths and they are the very definition of a band of plague rats.

I look forward to seeing a pitcher lick his fingers prior to grabbing a baseball only to see the umpire have to call time while someone in a hazmat suit has to come out to retrieve the ball.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

That is what everyone in America is ordered to do.  Not just the NBA.  If you have been in known contact with anyone that tested positive for covid-19 you are to self-quarantine for 14 days.  Period.  Ironclad.  People that ignore this and don't self-quarantine are the very ones that are causing this damn plague.  Because the virus is ONLY spread by people.

So the 1B and the runner at 1B should both wear masks and the 1B should be behind plexiglass.  Okay, problem solved.  (And yes we do have to eat and no we don't have to watch baseball within the next month or two.  How did the human race survive for thousands of years without this game, sigh).

Yeah nit picky.  That is exactly HOW epidemics are stopped.  The virus doesn't fall from the sky like rain.  It doesn't spring up from the ground like weeds.  It is transmitted by people many of whom do very stupid things like not practicing social distancing.

Also on a lighter but still deadly note.  How do you keep ballplayers from spitting all over the place?  God they can't get through the national anthem without projecting spit wads every which way.  Add in sunflower seed shells zinging around and Gatoraide-like products flying out of their mouths and they are the very definition of a band of plague rats.


I’m not wearing a mask and neither are the Target employees at the check out line. Not sure where you shop, but there’s no plexiglass in my town when I pay for groceries

 

But okay. That’s that. I guess you have a point that a pandemic requires a degree of nitpickiness

Edited by UberRebel
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in new york city where i live every single perosn is wearing masks and 2 of my grocery stores have plexi glass at the registers

.. but i really dont see this thing passing until at least june. especially in new york

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Regardless of what happens this year, I know I won't be doing any drafts or playing any fantasy.

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12 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Regardless of what happens this year, I know I won't be doing any drafts or playing any fantasy.

You still have constantly posting negative thoughts to get you by. Everyone else will enjoy whatever season the system graces us with. 

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17 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Regardless of what happens this year, I know I won't be doing any drafts or playing any fantasy.

cool story, bro. Enjoy the rest of your summer.

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18 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Regardless of what happens this year, I know I won't be doing any drafts or playing any fantasy.

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24 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Regardless of what happens this year, I know I won't be doing any drafts or playing any fantasy.

All good man.  Stay healthy.

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47 minutes ago, desert86 said:

You still have constantly posting negative thoughts to get you by. Everyone else will enjoy whatever season the system graces us with. 

What are you talking about and how is that negative?  Also, speak for yourself not for "everyone else"

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6 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

What are you talking about and how is that negative?  Also, speak for yourself not for "everyone else"

Enjoy the 2021 season

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