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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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This Arizona plan is going to die a quick death the moment someone gets sick, which is inevitable. It's a near-impossibility.

I just don't see baseball happening this season.

 

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8 hours ago, sleepysock said:

This Arizona plan is going to die a quick death the moment someone gets sick, which is inevitable. It's a near-impossibility.

I just don't see baseball happening this season.

 

Exactly. Players are coming in from all corners including hot spots. That includes all staff, TV and radio. Even without fans these games will still have more than 50 people involved far more than the recommended 5-10 for gatherings. How do you social distance in a dugout or when you are on base? Not practical at all.

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8 hours ago, sleepysock said:

This Arizona plan is going to die a quick death the moment someone gets sick, which is inevitable. It's a near-impossibility.

I just don't see baseball happening this season.

 

Yes, any plan would have to have a contingency for what happens if someone from a club gets sick because it's inevitable. 

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A mid-May start in Arizona is 5-6 weeks away and by some projections we could be at the end of the curve or very close by then. Arizona has also been Somewhat minimally affected states when comparing to large markets. That’s really the only way MLB gets this plan off the ground. I’m not sure why people are up in arms about this. The MLBPA is a strong union and won’t do anything stupid that the players are against doing. People are worried about Arizona’s heat, but the AZ plan is a bandaid to get the season started whilE things normalize 1-2 months in the other markets. I would think normal baseball will resume in home stadiums by July 1 and they would make a decision on allowing fans in stadiums closer to that date and depending on each city’s current COVID-19 status. There is a lot of data showing that we have done a better than expected job of social distancing so the original projections for cases deaths and curve timelines were very pessimistic. The key now - will be can we keep it going another month and crush the curve. 

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36 minutes ago, coleporter said:

Exactly. Players are coming in from all corners including hot spots. That includes all staff, TV and radio. Even without fans these games will still have more than 50 people involved far more than the recommended 5-10 for gatherings. How do you social distance in a dugout or when you are on base? Not practical at all.

The players and people involved will be tested and isolated. 50 people is a small group to control.  They will have the weeks prior during the spring training ramp-up to test everyone and make sure everyone is clear and keep them isolated as part of the plan. We’ll be on the other side of the curve in a state that has been showing that it’s already minimally affected by COVID-19. If players have tested clear and are keeping isolated, they don’t need to social distance from each other. 

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Why are we all still debating this stuff ? Nobody really know what it's gonna look like 2 months. Nobody know if there's going to baseball in 2 months. You don't know. I don't know. Manfred doesn't know. Fauci doesn't know. Trump doesn't know and nobody would believe him if he said he did. It might be too risky, it might not be too risky. Why can't we just leave it at that ? 

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1 hour ago, TheForearmShiver said:

The players and people involved will be tested and isolated. 50 people is a small group to control.  They will have the weeks prior during the spring training ramp-up to test everyone and make sure everyone is clear and keep them isolated as part of the plan. We’ll be on the other side of the curve in a state that has been showing that it’s already minimally affected by COVID-19. If players have tested clear and are keeping isolated, they don’t need to social distance from each other. 

Hoooold up, what happened to there not being enough test kits? If MLB will somehow get their hands on 1,200 test kits just to get baseball going, while there's still a backlog of these for normal folks, that would be a tragedy. 

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4 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Hoooold up, what happened to there not being enough test kits? If MLB will somehow get their hands on 1,200 test kits just to get baseball going, while there's still a backlog of these for normal folks, that would be a tragedy. 

It sounds like the kits have ramped up, but they are working on ancillary lab testing equipment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/coronavirus-testing-accuracy-and-availability-shortages-remain

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If people stay at home for the next 3 weeks the testing demand will go down significantly.  

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1 hour ago, TheForearmShiver said:

The players and people involved will be tested and isolated. 50 people is a small group to control.  They will have the weeks prior during the spring training ramp-up to test everyone and make sure everyone is clear and keep them isolated as part of the plan. We’ll be on the other side of the curve in a state that has been showing that it’s already minimally affected by COVID-19. If players have tested clear and are keeping isolated, they don’t need to social distance from each other. 

Last report I saw was 50 players per team, then coaches, umpires, grounds crew, people involved in the housing/ feeding/ transporting, people involved in broadcasting the games, clubhouse people (trainers and such). Some plans also had families being there. Multiply that by 30 teams and it isn't a small group any longer. Sure it could be done but easy isn't part of the description. 

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6 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Last report I saw was 50 players per team, then coaches, umpires, grounds crew, people involved in the housing/ feeding/ transporting, people involved in broadcasting the games, clubhouse people (trainers and such). Some plans also had families being there. Multiply that by 30 teams and it isn't a small group any longer. Sure it could be done but easy isn't part of the description. 

 I’ve seen it could be a 10k population. Even going minimally it’s in the thousands. 

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What problems or roadblocks would need to be overcome? And how fast could they overcome those challenges with enough degree of safety that this isa success?

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2 hours ago, coleporter said:

Exactly. Players are coming in from all corners including hot spots. That includes all staff, TV and radio. Even without fans these games will still have more than 50 people involved far more than the recommended 5-10 for gatherings. How do you social distance in a dugout or when you are on base? Not practical at all.

I dont understand what is so hard for some of you guys to understand in relation to the whole 'coming in from hot spots' arguement.

All players and staff would be tested PRIOR to anything even happening... all contact with the outside world does not exist once there... IF... IFFFFFF everybody who shows up to AZ for the MLB season tests negative, given the restrictions and guidelines and of course the assumption that all follow it properly.. NO BODDYYYYYY should be capable of testing positive or spreading this disease around. 

44 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Hoooold up, what happened to there not being enough test kits? If MLB will somehow get their hands on 1,200 test kits just to get baseball going, while there's still a backlog of these for normal folks, that would be a tragedy. 

Testing kits are being produced at a much higher rate at the moment, as well as new technologies involving rapid testing.. MLB has stated (along with other major leagues) that they will only return if testing is not being taken away from those who need it.. this is one of the reasons the German soccer league has begun training together again due to the test kits available.. it would be no different in North America.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Hoooold up, what happened to there not being enough test kits? If MLB will somehow get their hands on 1,200 test kits just to get baseball going, while there's still a backlog of these for normal folks, that would be a tragedy. 

A month from now tests will be abundant. Many of the big pharma and med device companies are racing to get them produced. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver
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6 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

A month from now tests will be abundant. Many of the big pharma and med device companies are racing to get them produced. 

Agreed. I think everyone realizes how much some countries screwed up in the lack of testing kits being available, thus forcing all these companies to mass produce them and do so in a quick manner.. ofcourse, the potential issue with this is the possibility of a lack of quality due to it being rushed.. but, im definitely hoping i am wrong here.

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1 minute ago, TheForearmShiver said:

A month from now tests will be abundant. Many of the big pharma and med device companies are racing to get them produced. 

Okay assuming that happens, players and staff get tested everyday. So what is that a few 1-2 thousands tests daily give or take. Seems plausible if the the test factories are roaring. What else needs to happen? 

What other problems or roadblocks would need to be overcome? And how fast could they overcome those challenges with enough degree of safety that this isa success?

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2 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

Okay assuming that happens, players and staff get tested everyday. So what is that a few 1-2 thousands tests daily give or take. Seems plausible if the the test factories are roaring. What else needs to happen? 

What other problems or roadblocks would need to be overcome? And how fast could they overcome those challenges with enough degree of safety that this isa success?

Something tells me they’ve got smart people working out all the risks. We don’t have all the answers today. Neither do they. This is a fluid situation that won’t be fully realized until we continue to get closer. But the point is: If they have any hope of resuming the season when the time is right - that planning starts now and the the past couple weeks - because you can’t just get to a good place and just turn the faucet back on when you feel like everything is ready. 

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12 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Something tells me they’ve got smart people working out all the risks. We don’t have all the answers today. Neither do they. This is a fluid situation that won’t be fully realized until we continue to get closer. But the point is: If they have any hope of resuming the season when the time is right - that planning starts now and the the past couple weeks - because you can’t just get to a good place and just turn the faucet back on when you feel like everything is ready. 


I agree it’s fluid and I’m sure they have smart people working on it. You mentioned May as arbitrary start. Is that just a random date you came up of or was there any thought besides, they have smart people?

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5 minutes ago, tucker26 said:


I agree it’s fluid and I’m sure they have smart people working on it. You mentioned May as arbitrary start. Is that just a random date you came up of or was there any thought besides, they have smart people?

I said may because that is the month being put out there by MLB in the media as a possible best case scenario plan A. 

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If they can put a man on the moon, i'm sure they can figure how to play baseball safely

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2 minutes ago, squantos said:

If they can put a man on the moon, i'm sure they can figure how to play baseball safely

 

OK, but the Apollo program only cost ~$150 billion in today's dollars, while the average MLB club is worth ~$1.5 billion.  For it to be worth doing for the clubs, it has to produce profit, and based on the current agreement, it may be better (read: less of a financial burden) to just pay the players the small amount they'll get if the season is canceled vs. paying them to play, plus the cost of all of the safety intervention, plus any higher insurance premiums they may have to pay, plus the risk of lawsuit settlements that aren't covered by insurance... 

I want baseball in 2020, but this isn't a matter of sheer will or technology the way getting to the Moon was.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

OK, but the Apollo program only cost ~$150 billion in today's dollars, while the average MLB club is worth ~$1.5 billion.  For it to be worth doing for the clubs, it has to produce profit, and based on the current agreement, it may be better (read: less of a financial burden) to just pay the players the small amount they'll get if the season is canceled vs. paying them to play, plus the cost of all of the safety intervention, plus any higher insurance premiums they may have to pay, plus the risk of lawsuit settlements that aren't covered by insurance... 

I want baseball in 2020, but this isn't a matter of sheer will or technology the way getting to the Moon was.

That might just be a matter of scale. You can compare feats and recognize the scale between them.
 

One thing in common with this and the Moonlanding is that neither accomplishment is going to have really accomplished anything other than *capturing the world’s attention at a time when people needed it most*. It might just be that baseball does this as a win for the people when the people really just...need a win. If baseball can capture the world’s attention on a world stage all by itself - that might just be the injection it needed to become America’s pastime once again. It has an unencumbered, open stage in front of a captive audience to bring parents and children back to a game that has a tendency to grab onto your heart and not let go. It’ll do it with baseball players playing in empty stadiums- doing it for the love of the game. One day, these kids will be Dads telling their kids about the time that the world stopped. A world that has just recently been at odds over every conceivable political topic. But it was once again baseball...yes baseball...that brought us all back together. 
 

Now read this as James Earl Jones’ Moonlight Graham voice and see if it doesn’t tug at your heart strings a little bit. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver
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13 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

That might just be a matter of scale. You can compare feats and recognize the scale between them.
 

One thing in common with this and the Moonlanding is that neither accomplishment is going to have really accomplished anything other than *capturing the world’s attention at a time when people needed it most*. It might just be that baseball does this as a win for the people when the people really just...need a win. If baseball can capture the world’s attention on a world stage all by itself - that might just be the injection it needed to become America’s pastime once again. It has an unencumbered, open stage in front of a captive audience to bring parents and children back to a game that has a tendency to grab onto your heart and not let go. It’ll do it with baseball players playing in empty stadiums- doing it for the love of the game. One day, these kids will be Dads telling their kids about the time that the world stopped. A world that has just recently been at odds over every conceivable political topic. But it was once again baseball...yes baseball...that brought us all back together. 
 

Now read this as James Earl Jones’ Moonlight Graham voice and see if it doesn’t tug at your heart strings a little bit. 

We talking about MLB or Olympics?

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5 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

We talking about MLB or Olympics?

You don’t need to be the Olympics to capture the world’s attention. Especially when there’s going to be zero competition on TV especially with network shows winding down. Baseball is beloved across the Americas and much of Asia. That’s a pretty good start. It’s also a chance for baseball to gain an international audience where it doesn’t have a share. David Stern will be revered forever for his success in making basketball a global sport. It’s not a certainty by any means that it would happen. But it sure is an opportunity of a lifetime for baseball to take the world stage. I bet Rob Manfred has thought about that as his head hits the pillow. 

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7 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

You don’t need to be the Olympics to capture the world’s attention. Especially when there’s going to be zero competition on TV especially with network shows winding down. Baseball is beloved across the Americas and much of Asia. That’s a pretty good start. It’s also a chance for baseball to gain an international audience where it doesn’t have a share. David Stern will be revered forever for his success in making basketball a global sport. It’s not a certainty by any means that it would happen. But it sure is an opportunity of a lifetime for baseball to take the world stage. I bet Rob Manfred has thought about that as his head hits the pillow. 

Football is #1 

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