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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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On 4/13/2020 at 7:51 AM, tucker26 said:

 
I think the AZ stadiums are all considered to be extreme hitter parks. 

More in line of Arlington in the summer then Coors though. What is the elevation?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

More in line of Arlington in the summer then Coors though. What is the elevation?


Correct, maybe extreme is a bad description but definitely in favor of hitters. Dimensions are similar to MLB parks but it's the air density that gives it the boost. So like AZ. Not sure how much humidors will help playing in 120 heat. 

https://theathletic.co.uk/1725087/2020/04/08/2020-mlb-fantasy-baseball-season/
 

Quote

Al Melchior has done extensive work here with Clifton Neely from BaseballVMI.com, who is the gold standard for air density studies.

In Arizona all the teams will be playing between 973 feet and 1250 feet elevation...

Pitchers are going to struggle, and hitters are going to love it...

 

Edited by tucker26
Link to Rates and Barrel's Podcast didn't work
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8 hours ago, meh2 said:

Nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen. Personally I think a May start is too aggressive, but a late June/early July start in empty stadiums seems very reasonable. I suspect most occupations and jobs will be up and running in June so I don’t see why baseball without fans  would be any different.

 

PR is a big factor here.  It's bad PR to be too aggressive and undermine the messages on social distancing and caution.  

It would also be terrible PR if everybody has to go back to work except for people who make multi-generational fortunes playing games.  Particularly, as their only real contribution to society is to provide us with distraction, and this is when the demand for that is greatest. 

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8 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Do you/we really think this Florida & Arizona idea is going to happen? 
Because I sure don’t. 

Neither does MLB regards the Florida-Arizona axis of insanity plan:

Quote

ESPN's Jeff Passan said in an interview on ESPN's "Get Up" Monday that "it seems like it’s going to be Arizona or bust for Major League Baseball.”

“When it’s all said and done, it seems like it’s going to be Arizona or bust for Major League Baseball,” Passan said. “It may have to get to the point where they say to themselves, this is what we are going to try to do even if we can’t ultimately pull it off.” Passan was first to report in detail last week about the possibility of all 30 teams setting up shop in Arizona for the MLB season. It's since been reported that housing clubs at their spring training sites in Arizona and also Florida is under consideration, but that possibility appears less feasible. The league doesn't appear remotely close to making any kind of decision, as everybody involved is essentially still in brainstorming mode.

Source: MassLive.com                                            Apr 13, 2020, 3:00 PM ET

Also MLB officially extends paying the league employees longer and the players' pay for even longer being discussed:

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MLB commissioner Rob Manfred sent a memo Tuesday morning committing to paying league employees through at least May 31.

Manfred also wrote that senior staff in the league -- including himself -- will reduce their pay at an average of 35 percent for 2020. MLB will continue making scheduled financial distributions to teams throughout April and May which "will assist the Clubs in paying the salary advances that are being made to players." As agreed to late last month, MLB players are receiving an advance of $170 million for the months of April and May and the money can be kept in the event there isn't a season. MLB is still mulling over multiple scenarios for the season amid the ongoing pandemic, though there's no indication that an official decision is imminent.

Source: Jeff Passan on Twitter                         Apr 14, 2020, 10:12 AM ET

 

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They SHOULD still be in brainstorming mode.  We only have educated guesses about what things will be like in coming weeks and months and, in spite of what some seem to think, MLB is a fairly small and flexible operation with practically unlimited resources.  It would be foolish to say, "here is our plan to start baseball on june 23 at 2:00pm PST. It's set in stone and we either do that or don't have a season."

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Posted (edited)

Saw this today...

 

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, who served as special advisor for health policy to the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget during the Obama administration, told on a recent New York Times panel that “restarting the economy has to be done in stages... Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — ... I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

Edited by Dr. Whom

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8 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Saw this today...

 

 “restarting the economy has to be done in stages... Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — ... I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

 

Please don't say that. I'm going to perform seppuku on myself if we cannot have sports until Fall of 2021.

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My first though is that schools are large gatherings that bring together millions of kids every day. Are schools going to be closed all of next year too? It would be feasible for universities to do that and still provide a high level of education, but no way is that possible for K-12 across the whole country.

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Having been a sub, and my mom being a teacher, I can pretty much guarantee you that lots of kids are getting no education rn.  There are plenty of kids who never do homework and who, if the teacher calls home about a problem, the parent/guardian gets mad at the teacher for bothering them.  Home school is no school for those kids.  

Was talking to my mom about what they are going to do with grade promotion and kids who haven't learned a thing in months.  Probably just push them through anyway.  

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1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

Having been a sub, and my mom being a teacher, I can pretty much guarantee you that lots of kids are getting no education rn.  There are plenty of kids who never do homework and who, if the teacher calls home about a problem, the parent/guardian gets mad at the teacher for bothering them.  Home school is no school for those kids.  

Was talking to my mom about what they are going to do with grade promotion and kids who haven't learned a thing in months.  Probably just push them through anyway.  

I've heard that might be the possibility in Los Angeles. It sucks, but its something that has to be done. Some kids are going to fall behind tremendously. The damage done is going to be huge. 

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1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

Having been a sub, and my mom being a teacher, I can pretty much guarantee you that lots of kids are getting no education rn.  There are plenty of kids who never do homework and who, if the teacher calls home about a problem, the parent/guardian gets mad at the teacher for bothering them.  Home school is no school for those kids.  

Was talking to my mom about what they are going to do with grade promotion and kids who haven't learned a thing in months.  Probably just push them through anyway.  

I heard talks of not failing students and pushing them through. I think it might be wishful thinking that it will only be for this semester and not drag onto next year. Hope we are wrong. 

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Too bad parents don’t wanna be parents. 

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Maybe education is more important than baseball though 🤔

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34 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

Too bad parents don’t wanna be parents. 

 

It's not always parents not being parents, it's parents not being teachers, or just not having the time to be teachers.  Think about a single parent trying to keep a job, maintain a household AND try to teach their kids math.  I wouldn't be so quick to blame parents on this one.

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10 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

It's not always parents not being parents, it's parents not being teachers, or just not having the time to be teachers.  Think about a single parent trying to keep a job, maintain a household AND try to teach their kids math.  I wouldn't be so quick to blame parents on this one.

It's been 20 years since i took calculus.  And that was pre common core.  No way no how

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41 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

It's not always parents not being parents, it's parents not being teachers, or just not having the time to be teachers.  Think about a single parent trying to keep a job, maintain a household AND try to teach their kids math.  I wouldn't be so quick to blame parents on this one.

 

Veering off topic, but, sure in some cases some parents are less to blame.  But until you see it first hand, you really can't grasp the degree to which people DGAF about their own kids. Let alone their education or education in general.  By the time my mom retired, only a tiny number of parents showed up for the parent teacher nights to discuss their kids.  This was not in some horrible neighborhood either, but a lower working class one. It's one or two nights a year for like an hour.  Most people could make it happen if they wanted to.  

They also had this problem: people would not bring their kids to school 20 mins early for a free breakfast.  They also would not feed their kids.  So the kids would get hungry in class which was obv a problem.  As a solution, they had to move the free breakfast into class instructional time, screwing the teachers and all the kids who had parents who cared if they ate.

Note what I said before.  Some parents get mad at the teacher when s/he calls to discuss the student.  Curse them out. Why the F you calling me about this BS?  That's not just being too busy or not knowing calculus.

Could go on forever about it, but I wouldn't really expect someone to believe it without seeing it as I didn't myself.  It's very depressing.  On the other hand, if you had a half decent upbringing it makes you very thankful.  

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Posted (edited)

Whoops, I was looking for the coronavirus baseball thread? 

Yeah I know people, including me, get off topic here some in the off season but this one was a bit weird even for us, heh.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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Tony Clark appears just as confused as all of us.  Make of this as you will.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2020/04/15/baseball-players-union-chief-tony-clark-hopeful-games-2020/5141102002/

“Everything centers around two things,’’ Clark told USA TODAY Sports in an expansive telephone interview, “the amount of testing available and a vaccine. And how it can be mitigated in the public arena as much as the professional arena.

 “And it can’t be at the expense of public testing.’’

“We don’t have the answers,’’ Clark said, “and we don’t expect those to come anytime soon.’’

 

While players are mixed on the idea of being separated from their families – with stars such as Los Angeles Dodgers' Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and Angels' MVP Mike Trout resisting the idea – Clark said no discussions have transpired on the feasibility of playing games without some of the game’s biggest names.

“We’re still a ways from that,’’ Clark said. “There have been a lot of ideas thrown out there, but not much to the depth of them. Once we find ourselves in discussions with the league in terms of options and variations, we in turn can present those ideas to the players, and the players can decide what makes most sense.

“But for now, there’s simply too many assumptions being made what it’s going to look like.’’

“I’m a glass half-full guy anyways, but as I sit here on April 15, Jackie Robinson Day, I continue to remain optimistic that the possibility of playing still exists.’’

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Good for Trout and Kershaw speaking out publicly about these harebrained ideas.  I followed a link here or in the other coronavirus thread a little while back quoting somewhere between a half dozen to a dozen players expressing deep concerns about "Bubbletown" as I term it but they were kept anonymous because then I think these players feared speaking out against this disaster waiting to happen.  But with bigger names now going public I'm sure more players will be willing to speak out.  At least those veterans on long term contracts that don't have to fear the ire of the league and management.

Quote

“We don’t have the answers,’’ Clark said, “and we don’t expect those to come anytime soon.’’

I hope people here that hoped baseball will be back in May will finally realize that was never ever going to happen after this quote from Clark above.  There is seeing the glass half full then there is seeing a total mirage.  Yes there is a slim possibility of some baseball this year but it isn't going to be remotely happening in May. 

The bottom line is MLB doesn't have concrete plans.  They have just been spitballing stuff.  They don't know any more than the rest of us on what will happen with this epidemic and if there will be a second wave etc etc let alone how to set up a safe and fool proof and acceptable to the players Bubbletown on the fly.  These things take time and the time element is in large measure in the control of a certain nasty virus, not us.

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On 4/15/2020 at 4:06 AM, TennisDude said:

 

Please don't say that. I'm going to perform seppuku on myself if we cannot have sports until Fall of 2021.

 

Don't worry it is highly unlikely the 2020 baseball season gets canceled.  There have already been extensive talks about playing in empty Arizona.  They've also been talking about scrapping AL / NL for this year and just doing Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues so everyone plays out of their spring training facilities.

 

I also read the other day that Florida already declared The WWE an essential service (yeah pretty crazy but it's a good sign for baseball in 2020).  So Florida is already gearing to get going again.  So I'm sure the state government would welcome and accommodate the Grapefruit League games as soon as possible.

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1 minute ago, FouLLine said:

Don't worry it is highly unlikely the 2020 baseball season gets canceled.  There have already been extensive talks about playing in empty Arizona.  They've also been talking about scrapping AL / NL for this year and just doing Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues so everyone plays out of their spring training facilities.

I also read the other day that Florida already declared The WWE an essential service (yeah pretty crazy but it's a good sign for baseball in 2020).  So Florida is already gearing to get going again.  So I'm sure the state government would welcome and accommodate the Grapefruit League games as soon as possible.

The Arizona/Florida plan was already officially scraped.  They said all in on Bubbletown Arizona or bust.  That was their only plan at this point.  And if you read directly above you will see that crazy scheme isn't getting off the ground all too well.

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It sounds like there is another potential issue that needs to be resolved aside from the most pressing public health and logistical issues, that being compensation for players for games played in empty stadiums.  From today's Rosenthal article in The Athletic:

The league has yet to make a proposal to the players’ union on the subject, but New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, in a CNN appearance Wednesday night, referenced potential salary cuts while discussing a conversation he had earlier in the day with Mets COO Jeff Wilpon.

“Apparently, Major League Baseball would have to make a deal with the players because if you have no one in the stands then the numbers are going to change, right? The economics are going to change,” Cuomo said.

Some on the players’ side, however, say the issue is already settled, pointing to the 17-page agreement the league and the union reached in March. The document created a framework for the sport during the shutdown, and includes a subhead titled, “Player Compensation and Benefits.”

A separate section of the deal, listing the conditions for games to resume, says the commissioner’s office and the union “will discuss in good faith the economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators or at appropriate substitute neutral sites.” Similar phrasing exists in other parts of the agreement as well.

One person with knowledge of the deal said the clause was not intended to signal any willingness by the players to reopen salary discussions. Others said the issue was left undecided, and that the league made it clear to the union that economic adjustments would be necessary if games were played in empty parks.

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1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The Arizona/Florida plan was already officially scraped.  They said all in on Bubbletown Arizona or bust.  That was their only plan at this point.  And if you read directly above you will see that crazy scheme isn't getting off the ground all too well.

 

Where was there any official statement on this?  As far as I've seen it's been "we don't really know we are working through ideas".  I've yet to see Tony Clark or any MLB official come out and say it is one way or another. 

 

Also to your post before this one neither Trout and Kershaw said they wouldn't do it.  They both just reasonably expressed warranted skepticism.  I watched the interviews the head lines were blowing it way out of proportion to try to create the drama and click bait they need. 

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It may be possible that Clark's uncertainty and this issue of compensation are related - his job is after all to make sure that the players are both safe and fairly compensated.

It certainly could be possible that the players are ensuring there's some degree of "hazard pay" in the event that they do go back to work, while the owners will be looking to offset lost gate revenue.

This stuff of course takes a back seat to the public health question.  But one more hurdle.

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