meh2

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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Just now, 2ndCitySox said:

I've reached a point of apathy regarding baseball and fantasy baseball this year. It's probably partially due to the uncertainty of the season. Its definitely partially due to the amount of prep-work I did in the offseason.

I cant even bring myself to adjust my draft board haha. But the apathy is real. And its unspectacular.

If there is a season, one thing is for certain, it's gonna be a total gd mess and prep work is probably futile. 

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4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Can’t have cases go up exponentially if you aren’t testing for them. There aren’t enough tests to effectively test everyone with symptoms but they are going to hand 2-3 per week, per player, manager, and everyone else involved to test during this? I mean the US as a whole is testing like 300k a week. They’d need ALL of the tests being used currently in the US just to get running. Seems like it’ll happen. 
 

Arizona has only had 55k tests since day one. And those had a fail rate of 30-50%. 

False....4000000 tests at 300000 per week would mean we have been testing for over 13 weeks or 3 months. NY has more testing per capita than Germany and South Korea. If the first cdc test were not contaminated, we would be crushing testing

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

False....4000000 tests at 300000 per week would mean we have been testing for over 13 weeks or 3 months. NY has more testing per capita than Germany and South Korea. If the first cdc test were not contaminated, we would be crushing testing

 

Germany 23,985 tests per 1m residents

NYC 33,098 tests per 1m residents

However, Florida 13,798 tests per 1m residents

Texas 7,366 tests per 1m residents

Arizona 7,939 tests per 1m residents. 

Testing is nowhere near where it needs to be to think about a baseball season. 

Edited by daynlokki

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

False....4000000 tests at 300000 per week would mean we have been testing for over 13 weeks or 3 months. NY has more testing per capita than Germany and South Korea. If the first cdc test were not contaminated, we would be crushing testing

Testing started mid January. First case in Washington was January 21st. Say 13 weeks like you said 4,000,000/13 is about 307,000 a week. Sorry I was off by 7k. My bad. 

Edited by daynlokki

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8 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

1) The U.S. is not even close on testing. I'm not sure how it gets corrected at this point. It's downplayed constantly at the federal level and where's the investment? I understand that many smart companies and scientists are working on this, but without the willingness to invest in mass production, how are we supposed to get there? You'd think this whole "reopen everything now" crowd would be ALL about testing since that is the key to everything.

2) Florida, Arizona, and Texas have all been hot messes in their responses to this crisis and are weeks, if not months, behind better-prepared states in the timing of their peaks. I'm sure MLB is trying their best to work around this.

I don't understand why are those states the ones being mentioned? Why not play much further north? (asking as a UK based baseball fan)

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50 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

I don't understand why are those states the ones being mentioned? Why not play much further north? (asking as a UK based baseball fan)

Originally the idea was just Arizona then Arizona + Florida.  The reason is that all MLB teams do their spring training in one of those two states.  15 of the 30 teams in each state.  Each team has their own team complex, training fields and a ballpark there.  Thus the players can be more contained in either one (Arizona with perhaps two teams sharing one complex) or two states (both Arizona and Florida) with a complex per team. 

In the two state plan all baseball would be confined within that state with no air travel, airports etc in the mix.  Instead of the National League and American League it would basically be replaced this year with a sandlot Florida League and Arizona League set-up.

Remember some states may not allow sporting events for a long time like NY and Massachusetts and other hot spots.   And even if they did sending the teams back to their hometown ballparks adds in travel and airports and more hotels to pass through making it more dangerous for both the players.  So to have everyone on an even playing field just go to your own spring complex and no one gets extra home field advantages other than the D-Backs, Rays and Marlins whose major league parks would also be used.

Basically a Giant Bubbleworld (Arizona only) or Two Semi-Giant Bubbleworlds (Arizona & Florida) self-quarantined from the rest of the population.  Crazy I think but that was the best they could think up I guess.

As to why Texas is suddenly in the mix I have not a clue.  They would basically have to bubble wrap both Houston and the Arlington area (aka Dallas & Fort Worth as well) unless MLB is thinking of hijacking some college fields in Texas and bubble wrapping them up instead.  These whole spitballing plans are out of some sort of sci-fi movie to me with about a thousand things that could go wrong in the process.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Originally the idea was just Arizona then Arizona + Florida.  The reason is that all MLB teams do their spring training in one of those two states.  15 of the 30 teams in each state.  Each team has their own team complex, training fields and a ballpark there.  Thus the players can be more contained in either one (Arizona with perhaps two teams sharing one complex) or two states (both Arizona and Florida) with a complex per team. 

In the two state plan all baseball would be confined within that state with no air travel, airports etc in the mix.  Instead of the National League and American League it would basically be replaced this year with a sandlot Florida League and Arizona League set-up.

Remember some states may not allow sporting events for a long time like NY and Massachusetts and other hot spots.   And even if they did sending the teams back to their hometown ballparks adds in travel and airports and more hotels to pass through making it more dangerous for both the players.  So to have everyone on an even playing field just go to your own spring complex and no one gets extra home field advantages other than the D-Backs, Rays and Marlins whose major league parks would also be used.

Basically a Giant Bubbleworld (Arizona only) or Two Semi-Giant Bubbleworlds (Arizona & Florida) self-quarantined from the rest of the population.  Crazy I think but that was the best they could think up I guess.

As to why Texas is suddenly in the mix I have not a clue.  They would basically have to bubble wrap both Houston and the Arlington area (aka Dallas & Fort Worth as well) unless MLB is thinking of hijacking some college fields in Texas and bubble wrapping them up instead.  These whole spitballing plans are out of some sort of sci-fi movie to me with about a thousand things that could go wrong in the process.

Great info thanks. So if you aren't in favour, what would you suggest could be a viable option? Or is there no viable option this year, just to try and get ready for baseball again in 2021? *sighs*

Having some baseball available to watch on tv really would make a difference to everyone's morale if they could make it possible.

Edited by swfcdan

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Testing started mid January. First case in Washington was January 21st. Say 13 weeks like you said 4,000,000/13 is about 307,000 a week. Sorry I was off by 7k. My bad. 

 

1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

 

Germany 23,985 tests per 1m residents

NYC 33,098 tests per 1m residents

However, Florida 13,798 tests per 1m residents

Texas 7,366 tests per 1m residents

Arizona 7,939 tests per 1m residents. 

Testing is nowhere near where it needs to be to think about a baseball season. 

Agreed...just trying to point out all the misinformation. It is up to the states and communities to do the testing. Federal government is providing the guidelines, tests, and gear. All states have enough labs, some didn’t know where they were in their state

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19 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

People need to get back to work first and foremost...I would wager that most people would rather see their kids back playing sports before professionals as well. That would really boost mental health. 

 

People need to return to work, yes.  To just add a thought to this, how many people work in baseball?

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Just now, 89Topps said:

 

People need to return to work, yes.  To just add a thought to this, how many people work in baseball?

And how many people whose income is at least somewhat attached to the MLB ecosystem?  Would have to be in the tens of thousands at least.

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4 hours ago, swfcdan said:

I don't understand why are those states the ones being mentioned? Why not play much further north? (asking as a UK based baseball fan)

 

Where?  You'd need an area with enough MLB ready ballparks.  That's why AZ & FLA were/are the first options.

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8 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Where?  You'd need an area with enough MLB ready ballparks.  That's why AZ & FLA were/are the first options.

 

Not so sure what's going to happen to the minor league season but I think Texas gets mentioned for 2 reasons.  

 

1.  The Texas League is there so there's a bunch of ballparks all well within a bus ride.  If AA season gets scraped or drastically reduced.

2.  Texas is the big state that is pretty much doing the best with coronavirus (not on a policy standpoint so much as a lucked out stand point) in terms of deaths per million.

 

Yes Texas and Arizona lag behind other states in tests per million but that is because covid-19 is not nearly as bad there as it is in other parts of the country.  So you need to focus the resources in the worst areas.  Also wherever the MLB decides to go it would seem basically common sense for testing to be budgeted to make this happen.  So I am sure they would bring funding for more testing for the MLB with an empty stadium deal.  Other countries have been pulling off empty stadium sports for a month+ now so I'm pretty sure The US is more than capable of doing so.

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Good question...I don’t know. Is it a thousand per organization counting stadium and front office? What is the minimum per needed team with only tv revenue be generated? All stadium concessions and ticket sales jobs would be cut or minimal.

31 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

People need to return to work, yes.  To just add a thought to this, how many people work in baseball?

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When these states open, how long of a spring training is needed to get these guys ready to start the season?

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

When these states open, how long of a spring training is needed to get these guys ready to start the season?

From Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs:

• Jon Daniels says the Rangers are “idling”.

 

Daniels said the Rangers want their pitchers “idling their engines.” That means not shutting it down completely, but also not going at full intensity without knowing when they will be called back to work.

“Until the league tells us otherwise, we are going to try and keep guys in some sort of state of readiness,” Daniels said. “That’s going to vary with each guy based on what they can do safely. We don’t want anybody to do anything that will jeopardize their health or the public’s health.”


• Mark Shapiro of the Blue Jays thinks three to four weeks is needed for pitchers to start up.

If baseball does return, how long do you think the second spring training needs to be?
That’s too difficult to answer because it’s dependent on a lot of variables. All the different rules, roster composition, length of games (7 innings compared to 9) could speed it up dramatically … we need to find out what shape all the players are in, and so on. We could do it faster than three to four weeks like we did in 1995, but we would need significant changes that consider what shape our players are in and what roster and game rules are in place that help protect our players’ health, the pitchers in particular.

• The Twins pitching coach, Wes Johnson sees pitchers needing a three-week ramp-up period.

Speaking on a conference call with reporters on Thursday, Johnson was asked about a possible timeline to have players ready for a revised Opening Day. While relievers can build up quickly and position players need roughly three weeks to prepare for action, starting pitchers require more time to build up. With teams already having experienced a month of camp and games before the shutdown two weeks ago, Johnson thinks the necessary time to ramp back up and prepare for action would be a minimum of three weeks.

“We feel pretty confident as a staff, talking, that 21-28 days, if that’s what we’re given, we could have some guys ready to go,” Johnson said. “Who knows, though, how much time they could call us and say we’re getting. Who knows? We can go through a whole bunch of different scenarios. That’s why we’re trying to stay in touch with these guys, so we have an idea when they do come back who might need more some more time and who doesn’t.”

• Ron Roenicke thinks the ramp-up can be quick if pitchers are doing intense throwing sessions.

The basic program is this: Most pitchers are throwing four to five times a week. Those who have access to a mound are getting up there a couple of times a week. As long as they’re able to do some of those throwing sessions with real intensity, Bush believes they’ll be OK for a fairly quick build-up to the regular season (though there’s no expectation that pitchers will be as stretched as they would be with a normal spring training).

“Some guys have access to a throwing partner or a catcher or a mound,” Bush said. “We have couple guys who are stuck at home and can only throw into a net in their driveway or their basement, in some cases … But I think most guys are in a pretty good spot. It’s actually going better than I expected. I was worried that there would be guys that wouldn’t or couldn’t throw at all.”

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1 hour ago, FouLLine said:

Not so sure what's going to happen to the minor league season but I think Texas gets mentioned for 2 reasons. 

1.  The Texas League is there so there's a bunch of ballparks all well within a bus ride.  If AA season gets scraped or drastically reduced.

2.  Texas is the big state that is pretty much doing the best with coronavirus (not on a policy standpoint so much as a lucked out stand point) in terms of deaths per million.

Yes Texas and Arizona lag behind other states in tests per million but that is because covid-19 is not nearly as bad there as it is in other parts of the country.  So you need to focus the resources in the worst areas.  Also wherever the MLB decides to go it would seem basically common sense for testing to be budgeted to make this happen.  So I am sure they would bring funding for more testing for the MLB with an empty stadium deal.  Other countries have been pulling off empty stadium sports for a month+ now so I'm pretty sure The US is more than capable of doing so.

Good point about the Texas League.  On the other hand we don't know how bad covid-19 is in Texas and Arizona because there haven't been enough tests.  Without tests there could be asymptomatic people and people having very mild symptoms who think they have a cold or something instead who therefore aren't self-quarantining thus busy spreading the virus in these states because they don't know they are carriers so things could get worse soon there.

And when they showed a map of proposed re-opening of states a few days ago Arizona was one of the last recommended to re-open along with NY, MA, California and some others because it's wave is simply behind but is slowly building but not reached peak yet let along gone down for 2 straight weeks.

And exactly what countries have been playing for a month plus in empty stadiums?  I've heard of none.  They were going to do it (baseball) in South Korea and Japan but then the second wave hit them and those plans didn't happen.  Soccer in Europe has been in small training groups of three or less last I heard.  So where are all these games happening?

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To add to my previous post, I think MLB will give players and teams as much notice as possible to get players time to ramp up their preparations independently before rejoining their teammates. I’ve been maintaining for a while now that a late June/early July start is feasible. Let’s say MLB decides on the 4th of July as opening day. I think we’d see an announcement in mid-May of that date in the hopes that players start ramping up independently. I think then you’d see an abbreviated spring training lasting 2 or 3 weeks starting in mid June. The exact logistics of how it’ll work are beyond my pay grade and I’ll let those getting paid big money to do so figure out the locations and other details. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Whom said:

When these states open, how long of a spring training is needed to get these guys ready to start the season?

They’ve already had a month of ST so I’d think 2-3 weeks would be sufficient. 

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2 minutes ago, meh2 said:

To add to my previous post, I think MLB will give players and teams as much notice as possible to get players time to ramp up their preparations independently before rejoining their teammates. I’ve been maintaining for a while now that a late June/early July start is feasible. Let’s say MLB decides on the 4th of July as opening day. I think we’d see an announcement in mid-May of that date in the hopes that players start ramping up independently. I think then you’d see an abbreviated spring training lasting 2 or 3 weeks starting in mid June. The exact logistics of how it’ll work are beyond my pay grade and I’ll let those getting paid big money to do so figure out the locations and other details. 

 

4th of July has a nice ring to it...allow people to celebrate their "freedom" by removing a government imposed lockdown

 

 

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Just now, Dr. Whom said:

 

4th of July has a nice ring to it...allow people to celebrate their "freedom" by removing a government imposed lockdown

 

 

And true to July 4th, 1776, our declaration of freedom will actually happen over multiple days with different representatives enacting it at different times and will be largely symbolic until we get our $h!t together.

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

4th of July has a nice ring to it...allow people to celebrate their "freedom" by removing a government imposed lockdown

Correction.  A pandemic imposed lockdown. 

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18 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

If there is a season, one thing is for certain, it's gonna be a total gd mess and prep work is probably futile. 

 

Yeah.  I've been basically ignoring park factors.  But that's kind of a flip too.  Watch there be a season starting in AZ and then some quirky schedule where the Rockies have a 15 game home stand in the fantasy playoffs.  

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4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Good point about the Texas League.  On the other hand we don't know how bad covid-19 is in Texas and Arizona because there haven't been enough tests.  Without tests there could be asymptomatic people and people having very mild symptoms who think they have a cold or something instead who therefore aren't self-quarantining thus busy spreading the virus in these states because they don't know they are carriers so things could get worse soon there.

And when they showed a map of proposed re-opening of states a few days ago Arizona was one of the last recommended to re-open along with NY, MA, California and some others because it's wave is simply behind but is slowly building but not reached peak yet let along gone down for 2 straight weeks.

And exactly what countries have been playing for a month plus in empty stadiums?  I've heard of none.  They were going to do it (baseball) in South Korea and Japan but then the second wave hit them and those plans didn't happen.  Soccer in Europe has been in small training groups of three or less last I heard.  So where are all these games happening?

This is the only professional league I have seen playing

http://cpblstats.com/

 

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