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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

Hard to wash your hands while playing baseball. Let alone keeping a safe distance. 

Nonetheless, we'll persist, and perhaps they will too.

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9 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Nonetheless, we'll persist, and perhaps they will too.

All it's gonna take to shut down the league is one positive test.  Unless they are gonna have teams forfeit 2 weeks of games while they all quarantine.

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Posted (edited)

The one of biggest dangers is traveling.  If there is a second wave this fall heading into the winter. I do have a hard time seeing 2021 baseball being back to normal. At least on opening day.

 

That being said I'm 100% confident in some form of MLB baseball all year. It just might be Arizona based the first month or so to avoid travel/fans. 

 

No noteable second wave. Probably would attempt a 100% back to normal try.   The MLB by 2021 will have already seen NFL, NHL and NBA plans of action by next year to base a plan off of.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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Just now, daynlokki said:

All it's gonna take to shut down the league is one positive test.  Unless they are gonna have teams forfeit 2 weeks of games while they all quarantine.

I'm sure that's a topic of conversation in these talks, as we've addressed it pretty frequently here.

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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/nfl-draft-will-grace-finale-tv-ratings-thursday-april-23-2020-1291713

NFL draft ratings were a 37% improvement year over year this year.

Those type of advertising dollars might open up some eyes when we talk about potential television revenue share.

If that many people are watching names being called and dudes sitting in their living rooms...

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/nfl-draft-will-grace-finale-tv-ratings-thursday-april-23-2020-1291713

NFL draft ratings were a 37% improvement year over year this year.

Those type of advertising dollars might open up some eyes when we talk about potential television revenue share.

If that many people are watching names being called and dudes sitting in their living rooms...

Why would those numbers open up eyes? Unless someone was currently working on their TV contract all the amounts are already set in stone for the teams. 

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So what is the group think here ?  That the season for minor leagues is already done for any type of season as we know it?  I can see games on back fields and what not, at least eventually, but it seems like it is a real long shot before we get any kind of minor league season, at least to me. As a fantasy geek, I love tracking minors almost as much as the MLB dudes, so while having MLB would be great, having it without minors would kill part of the strategy behind my dynasty and keeper leagues. 

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23 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Why would those numbers open up eyes? Unless someone was currently working on their TV contract all the amounts are already set in stone for the teams. 

This year's eyeballs dictate next year's contracts, and so on...

Conversely we all saw what a stoppage in play did for fan engagement for three years running following the '95 strike until McGwire and Sosa came along.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Why would those numbers open up eyes? Unless someone was currently working on their TV contract all the amounts are already set in stone for the teams. 

The bigger the audience, the more they can charge per commercial spot. The more spots they sell, the more money they make. Baseball TV ad revenues could be massive across the board including the worst teams.
 

EDIT: TV contracts are just carriage deals from the networks. The other side is the ad sales they get from advertisers. Their ad rates are dictated by supply and demand and negotiated every day. It could be a record ad sales year for every team involved. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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34 minutes ago, AngryBeavers said:

So what is the group think here ?  That the season for minor leagues is already done for any type of season as we know it?  I can see games on back fields and what not, at least eventually, but it seems like it is a real long shot before we get any kind of minor league season, at least to me. As a fantasy geek, I love tracking minors almost as much as the MLB dudes, so while having MLB would be great, having it without minors would kill part of the strategy behind my dynasty and keeper leagues. 

If it happens it’s likely to be reduced with the lowest levels cut. The lowest level guys would still be in some form of extended spring training or maybe taking higher level roster spots as some top prospects fill in as depth at the major league level. I’ve heard that each spring training facility has several fields where they can play. Still seems like a bit of a long shot because not all teams are owned by their affiliated teams and can’t sustain the costs of a season without ticket sales. 

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14 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

This year's eyeballs dictate next year's contracts, and so on...

Conversely we all saw what a stoppage in play did for fan engagement for three years running following the '95 strike until McGwire and Sosa came along.

What teams Media deals expire this year? Most, if not all. deals are for more than one year. For example the Dodgers was for 25 years when signed.

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Just now, Low and Away said:

What teams Media deals expire this year? Most, if not all. deals are for more than one year. For example the Dodgers was for 25 years when signed.

Well, for instance Turner's contract for the playoffs expires this year, which partially inspired the expanded playoff idea...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/11/bob-costas-tv-execs-salivating-over-mlb-playoff-plan-that-is-going-to-happen/?

That'd be good for the league writ large on the revenue share model.

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6 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

The bigger the audience, the more they can charge per commercial spot. The more spots they sell, the more money they make. Baseball TV ad revenues could be massive across the board including the worst teams.

I think you are grossly overestimating add revenue. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.broadcastingcable.com/.amp/news/baseball-ad-revenue-steady-in-2018-season

2018 the MLB made 230.5m in ad revenue. Split between every team, so below 10m per team if split evenly. 

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2 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

What teams Media deals expire this year? Most, if not all. deals are for more than one year. For example the Dodgers was for 25 years when signed.

To my point above, it’s not just about carriage deals, it’s about ad sales. While the Dodgers aren’t worried about getting a ton in ad revenue. Other teams that own their own tv networks will get The full share of ad sales revenue. 

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19 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

What teams Media deals expire this year? Most, if not all. deals are for more than one year. For example the Dodgers was for 25 years when signed.

 

The CBA didnt expire over the last 6-7 weeks yet those are being openly renegotiated because of the current circumstances.

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25 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

I think you are grossly overestimating add revenue. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.broadcastingcable.com/.amp/news/baseball-ad-revenue-steady-in-2018-season

2018 the MLB made 230.5m in ad revenue. Split between every team, so below 10m per team if split evenly. 

 

This article will give you a much better picture as to how TV Network revenue works.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-isnt-losing-tv-revenues-yet/

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

I think you are grossly overestimating add revenue. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.broadcastingcable.com/.amp/news/baseball-ad-revenue-steady-in-2018-season

2018 the MLB made 230.5m in ad revenue. Split between every team, so below 10m per team if split evenly. 
 

 

That number is MLB national game revenue. Each team pulls local ad sales for each of their 162 games. I used to sell White Sox radio advertising which cost double the normal sports radio advertising and the Sox sucked. Their TV ads and TV sponsorships were exorbitant and that number has only grown in the last 10 years. That local revenue is also shared but it’s a massive amount of money. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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15 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

That number is MLB national game revenue. Each team pulls local ad sales for each of their 162 games. I used to sell White Sox radio advertising which cost double the normal sports radio advertising and the Sox sucked. Their TV ads and TV sponsorships were exorbitant and that number has only grown in the last 10 years. That local revenue is also shared but it’s a massive amount of money. 

tHEY SHARE 34 % of local TV money. So if a team made 1 million in tv money the other 29 teams receive around 11,000 dollars. So the original team keeps 660.000. The only way a club rakes on the ad revenue is if they own shares of the company that has the broadcast rights.

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28 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Seems to be a pretty definitive statement from Passan, reading the linked ESPN article.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29101917/passan-20-questions-there-mlb-2020-just-matter-where-how

The MLB season should have turned one month old Sunday. Rather than lament that, let's instead fill the emptiness with a discussion about when the season will start.

Yes, will. Over the past two weeks, as states have begun to plan their reopenings, nearly everyone along the decision-making continuum -- league officials, players, union leaders, owners, doctors, politicians, TV power brokers, team executives -- has grown increasingly optimistic that there will be baseball this year.

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8 hours ago, daynlokki said:

How many players do you assume are away from their homes in town there? If the border is closed, they have already said the NHL won’t restart either. 

 

MLB team owners aren’t going to force Canada to open their border. That’s one hell of a strawman argument. Just how much sway do you think team owners for baseball really have? You think they somehow have sway over a foreign government apparently. 

 

Of course they do.  I'd imagine that Rob Manfred would have a fairly easy time getting to speak directly with Trudeau, and many other officials.  Most of the owners probably have a lot of business interests in Canada too.

But you're making it sound like I'm saying MLB owners acting alone could get the Canadian government to do something terrible. That's not it at all.

I know little about Canadian politics, but I'm sure that whoever broadcasts the games also has some political connections. Rogers communications owns the Jays and probably has pull.  As do advertisers and media, like newspapers and other media that need content even if they are not broadcasting the games.  Even fantasy baseball is a huge industry. You think Yahoo and ESPN don't have influence? Video games. Isn't EA based in Canada? Real life interest and changing dynamics (e.g. break out stars and rookies) help drive their business too. 

It's not like they'd have to persuade them to do something nefarious. I'm not saying MLB owners could get the Canadian flag changed.  They'd be asking if we can transport a handful of people to/from Canada/US in order to stimulate the economy and make voters happy in both countries.  It wouldn't even be remotely controversial.

Assuming this was the one thing holding up an MLB season, I think everyone from voters/fans to the big corps would want to get it done.  Why would they just tell everyone to go to hell for no reason?

Even IF they did, which would be quite bizarre, I'm pretty sure MLB would just move forward without whichever players are stuck in Canada and let Canadian officials deal with the unanimous outrage of those players, fans and businesses. 

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2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

I think you are grossly overestimating add revenue. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.broadcastingcable.com/.amp/news/baseball-ad-revenue-steady-in-2018-season

2018 the MLB made 230.5m in ad revenue. Split between every team, so below 10m per team if split evenly. 

 

Per Fangraphs:

1. MLB has three national TV contracts that total about $1.7 billion. 

2. Another $1 billion comes from central offices like MLB.TV and MLB Network.

3. Another $1.5 billion came from local TV deals in 2016 ranging from $20 million (Rays, Rockies, Marlins) to $204 million (Dodgers). The median deal was $46 million.

 

 

$2.7 billion in national deals comes out to about 90 million per team. 

 

So before any sort of revenue sharing, we are looking at a high of $294 million, median of $136 million, and low of $110 million of TV revenue.

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6 hours ago, daynlokki said:

And as soon as he does he will be screamed at for treating rich athletes as more important than the working man. Why should rich athletes be able to get a visa during a freeze if regular people can’t get one to work right now?

 

I think you are projecting your unshakable negativity onto others, like the Canadian government and the GP.  As someone who is pretty far left on many issues and knows many others who are, I assure you that the outrage, if any, would come from like 8 people on Twitter.  Most of us want things to be good!

IF there is still some situation where the borders are just totally shut down that far in the future, nearly everyone would be happy to see exceptions made for the obvious benefit of everyone.  

People would be outraged if the border restrictions were eased so a rich guy could go on vacation, yes.  Not if there is a practical reason that helps a lot of people, like to re-start MLB. It's not a question of these players being special and above the law. It's a question of them being special because they generate a lot of money and happiness, and also, being very few in number so that the situation could be easily managed.

It's just a pragmatic issue like allowing grocery stores to remain open when salons had to close. 

Who in their right mind thinks, "why should a few MLB players get to travel for jobs that will provide badly needed economic stimulation and bring happiness to millions people of all incomes and races, when I'm not allowed to go to a conference for mattress salesmen?" 

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3 hours ago, Rotocious said:

 

This article will give you a much better picture as to how TV Network revenue works.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-isnt-losing-tv-revenues-yet/

We weren’t discussing TV revenue. He specifically said they would make a ton more money from ad revenue. Which they won’t do. 

 

1 hour ago, GamblorLA said:

 

Of course they do.  I'd imagine that Rob Manfred would have a fairly easy time getting to speak directly with Trudeau, and many other officials.  Most of the owners probably have a lot of business interests in Canada too.

But you're making it sound like I'm saying MLB owners acting alone could get the Canadian government to do something terrible. That's not it at all.

I know little about Canadian politics, but I'm sure that whoever broadcasts the games also has some political connections. Rogers communications owns the Jays and probably has pull.  As do advertisers and media, like newspapers and other media that need content even if they are not broadcasting the games.  Even fantasy baseball is a huge industry. You think Yahoo and ESPN don't have influence? Video games. Isn't EA based in Canada? Real life interest and changing dynamics (e.g. break out stars and rookies) help drive their business too. 

It's not like they'd have to persuade them to do something nefarious. I'm not saying MLB owners could get the Canadian flag changed.  They'd be asking if we can transport a handful of people to/from Canada/US in order to stimulate the economy and make voters happy in both countries.  It wouldn't even be remotely controversial.

Assuming this was the one thing holding up an MLB season, I think everyone from voters/fans to the big corps would want to get it done.  Why would they just tell everyone to go to hell for no reason?

Even IF they did, which would be quite bizarre, I'm pretty sure MLB would just move forward without whichever players are stuck in Canada and let Canadian officials deal with the unanimous outrage of those players, fans and businesses. 

Wouldn’t even be remotely controversial to open the US border to 20 different countries specifically so baseball players could play a game? Anyone that’s not a baseball fan is gonna find that drastically controversial. They’d tell everyone to go to hell based on the national stances currently happening. They just agreed to close the border to Canada for another month. 

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27 minutes ago, GamblorLA said:

 

I think you are projecting your unshakable negativity onto others, like the Canadian government and the GP.  As someone who is pretty far left on many issues and knows many others who are, I assure you that the outrage, if any, would come from like 8 people on Twitter.  Most of us want things to be good!

IF there is still some situation where the borders are just totally shut down that far in the future, nearly everyone would be happy to see exceptions made for the obvious benefit of everyone.  

People would be outraged if the border restrictions were eased so a rich guy could go on vacation, yes.  Not if there is a practical reason that helps a lot of people, like to re-start MLB. It's not a question of these players being special and above the law. It's a question of them being special because they generate a lot of money and happiness, and also, being very few in number so that the situation could be easily managed.

It's just a pragmatic issue like allowing grocery stores to remain open when salons had to close. 

Who in their right mind thinks, "why should a few MLB players get to travel for jobs that will provide badly needed economic stimulation and bring happiness to millions people of all incomes and races, when I'm not allowed to go to a conference for mattress salesmen?" 

Bring badly needed economic stimulation specifically to the little region of Arizona they would play in*. These guys are going to be sequestered. Only way they are stimulating the economy is by their families spending their money while in lockdown or them buying a pizza through doordash. That’s the point. Their economic impact overall will be minuscule. 

 

1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Per Fangraphs:

1. MLB has three national TV contracts that total about $1.7 billion. 

2. Another $1 billion comes from central offices like MLB.TV and MLB Network.

3. Another $1.5 billion came from local TV deals in 2016 ranging from $20 million (Rays, Rockies, Marlins) to $204 million (Dodgers). The median deal was $46 million.

 

 

$2.7 billion in national deals comes out to about 90 million per team. 

 

So before any sort of revenue sharing, we are looking at a high of $294 million, median of $136 million, and low of $110 million of TV revenue.

He said AD REVENUE. Not the full TV deal. Two very separate things. My citation shows the full MLB ad revenue from 2018 being 230.5m. He was saying the ad revenue would be so much higher since ratings should be higher. Ad revenue specifically isn’t going to DK much for a team. 

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