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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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Kershaw would have to pick 170 STRAIGHT innings. Never gonna happen.

 

Guys like Paddock on innings limits are more valuable not guys who take four weeks off with injuries.

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

No one ... IMO The season will be cancelled. 


Please, think of my fragile sanity. Do not say such things, good sir. 

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No season at all?  Sounds extreme.  Realistically I feel it will be going again in mid-June.

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Baseball is not a high contact sport. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t play at least some games in empty stadia. Or even limit tickets to 1,000 or something. TV deals and ads still happen. Seems like a win for everyone involved. 

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14 hours ago, BostonCajun said:


Snell, Paddock, Glasnow, Woodruff, Montas, Carrasco, and Gallen, just to name a few, are all guys projected to throw between 150-170ish innings who I think all get a bump due to their ability to provide good ratios. That is of course if the number of games played is shortened. 

add in mckay as well

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32 minutes ago, countseth said:

Baseball is not a high contact sport. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t play at least some games in empty stadia. Or even limit tickets to 1,000 or something. TV deals and ads still happen. Seems like a win for everyone involved. 

I thought this initially but thought about pitchers constantly licking fingers, pitch ball, outfielder grabs it, etc. Could see it spread rather quickly if someone is sick. Let alone high fives, locker room quarters, etc.

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20 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I thought this initially but thought about pitchers constantly licking fingers, pitch ball, outfielder grabs it, etc. Could see it spread rather quickly if someone is sick. Let alone high fives, locker room quarters, etc.

 
 

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20 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

never said hes an ace i said hes close to a sp1 during 1st half. 3 era 1.1 whip, 3.6 era 1 whip year before, 3.5 era 1.08 whip 3 years ago

those numbers are basically strasburg last year and basically his entire career minus the godly k rate of strasburg.

you get 3.5 era 1.1 whip around pick 80 thats money

still have no idea why he is so bad 2nd half

Perhaps he gets fatigued easily and can’t handle the full workload? Another possibility is maybe he got lucky and had low BABIPS both times (It would be quite a coincidence and I didn’t look up the actual numbers so just guesswork).

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10 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

add in mckay as well

No way McKay gets that many innings. 

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Posted (edited)

[...]

We don't expect the season to start for 2 months now, so how does that affect players values.

Will there be less games (very likely imo), therefore does that make rookie pitchers (Luzardo, Kopech etc) more valuable as their innings will be a larger proportion of the season now?

Will there be less rest days and more doubleheaders, and if so how would that affect values? More 6 man rotations as a result? Does that mean less value in bench bats for "off days" (mon/thurs) in dailys?

Should we all still draft now if we haven't yet, or wait? Those of us that drafted a while ago, injured recovering players went for a discount then. Now they might be ready to start the season when it finally gets underway (JV, Paxton, Judge, Clev etc). Should/can anything be done about that, or is it just good luck for those owners? Especially in keeper leagues with values attached, that can make a big impact as it can allow them to be future keepers too as a result. Can't really warrant a total redraft though, can it? In money leagues though maybe it does?

 

 

Edited by tonycpsu
Merged with existing COVID-19 changes thread

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Another name, among those listed above, that may benefit is Chris Sale.  

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On 3/14/2020 at 12:44 PM, countseth said:

Baseball is not a high contact sport. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t play at least some games in empty stadia. Or even limit tickets to 1,000 or something. TV deals and ads still happen. Seems like a win for everyone involved. 

 

I highly doubt the season will be canceled.  Chinese basketball league is already saying they're ready to start playing again.

 

I personally think they'll restart spring training before the 8 week recommendation by the CDC.  Remember the CDC can only recommend they have no governing authority.  That would have to come from The White House or Congress.  So at some point when all the owners get together and say hey it looks like it's under control their going to want to start making money again.

 

It probably does start with empty stadium games and they probably slowly allow more and more attendance as the season goes on and the crisis continues to get more controlled.

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Posted (edited)

Guys that were slated to start the season on IL are probably most positively impacted by this delay.

And if MLB decides to go with a shortened season, I feel that fragile guys should see uptick in their value.

Athough some might argue that in shortened season, even a minimum 10 day stint has more negative impact than it would in a regular length season because you can't use him, it also means if they are healthy, their contribution accounts for more in shorter season than it would in regular season.

Since a lot of the guys in such situations are relatively affordable on draft day (tho I'm assuming their prices are creeping up), the risk is really worth it now than if this outbreak didn't happen. Also if you have DL slots you can still get replacement value via streaming or a good waiver move. 

Some guys that are positively impacted by above reasons imo are (besides big names like Judge, Stanton, Clevinger, Paxton, Verlander, Alvarez etc.):

Ohtani (as a pitcher)

McCullers

Hill

Cespedes

Fulmer

Mikolas

Verdugo

Heaney

Richards

Hicks (if he notches the 9th inning..)

 

 

Edited by fingy

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I had a thought. If someone thinks that lesser pitchers/pitchers with innings limitations will see an increased value in a shortened season, there is also the other side of the coin. What if JoRam takes forever to get hot and only has 1 month of elite stats? What if Voit comes blaring out of the gate and sustains it for 100 games? Lesser hitters could have better overall "seasons" and established hitters may suffer. Just food for thought..

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

I had a thought. If someone thinks that lesser pitchers/pitchers with innings limitations will see an increased value in a shortened season, there is also the other side of the coin. What if JoRam takes forever to get hot and only has 1 month of elite stats? What if Voit comes blaring out of the gate and sustains it for 100 games? Lesser hitters could have better overall "seasons" and established hitters may suffer. Just food for thought..

I completely agree.  There will be no time for either positive or negative regression, for stats to normalize.  This will also affect trading strategies.  For example if you attempt to buy low on a hitter starting off slow, you may never benefit from the positive regression you're accustomed to seeing.

Edited by El_Chingon
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why would baseball need another 2 to 3 weeks of spring training?

teams right now should be together. that isn't that many people together at once. they could play simulated games to stay baseball ready. pitchers should be pitching just like they would be now, 100ish pitches, that way they wouldn't need to built back up. doing this then once they announce everything is good to go players should only need a week at best.

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21 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

why would baseball need another 2 to 3 weeks of spring training?

teams right now should be together. that isn't that many people together at once. they could play simulated games to stay baseball ready. pitchers should be pitching just like they would be now, 100ish pitches, that way they wouldn't need to built back up. doing this then once they announce everything is good to go players should only need a week at best.

 

some states recently said gatherings over 10 are not recommended 

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Just now, kmoore1521 said:

some states recently said gatherings over 10 are not recommended 

 

Not some states, the President of the US said that. There's no way teams can be together right now. There's 40+ players in camp, plus all the coaches trainers front office admin etc. Players individually can get themselves ready but there is so much uncertainty. No way pitchers are wasting bullets when they have no idea when the season will start up.

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4 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

some states recently said gatherings over 10 are not recommended 

 

maybe I'm not grasping the severity of this, but I think this level is an overreaction. most people who get this are the elderly. if those younger (like baseball teams) controlled who they had contact with they should be able to maintain in baseball shape.

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Baseball shape? Most athletes could sit on a couch for a year and be in baseball shape. Ramping up pitching arms prior to restart is really the only issue. I’d imagine the league will work this out prior to restart. 

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1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

why would baseball need another 2 to 3 weeks of spring training?

teams right now should be together. that isn't that many people together at once. they could play simulated games to stay baseball ready. pitchers should be pitching just like they would be now, 100ish pitches, that way they wouldn't need to built back up. doing this then once they announce everything is good to go players should only need a week at best.

There is at least two months until anyone even thinks of starting back up.  And that is VERY best scenario.  The reality is it will probably be a lot longer.  And yeah, players hate spring trainingas it is let alone two to four months of monotonous nothing matters inter-squad games.

1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

maybe I'm not grasping the severity of this, but I think this level is an overreaction. most people who get this are the elderly. if those younger (like baseball teams) controlled who they had contact with they should be able to maintain in baseball shape.

Ding, ding.  We have a winner.  Players have parents and grandparents and older coaches.  They -- and anyone hanging out in groups -- become the Typhoid Marys of the outbreak.  Groups pass around and host the virus.  They go home or to the supermarket or to the hotel and spread it everywhere.  To STOP the spread you stop groups especially.

Also healthy people their age can die.  Just not at the rates of older people.  Remember Doctor Lee who first tried to alert the world to this only to be silenced at first?  He got it and was totally healthy and was in a hospital where they caught it early and started treatment early and yet he still died.  He was only 34.

Also you did see two Yankee minor leaguers have it now.

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1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

most people who get this are the elderly.

87% of total cases in China were aged 30-79.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

The elderly have a higher death rate because of comorbidity with preexisting health conditions, but younger people still get it.

Why that matters is that a person can be a perfectly healthy mid 30s person and maybe they just get really sick, but they can be in contact with older people and kill them.

As Dr. Fauici has told us, "if it looks like you are overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing."

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On 3/14/2020 at 1:44 PM, countseth said:

Baseball is not a high contact sport. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t play at least some games in empty stadia. Or even limit tickets to 1,000 or something. TV deals and ads still happen. Seems like a win for everyone involved. 

 

Because as soon as one person gets it then their whole team goes into two week quarantine and their current opponent and their previous opponent. Now you have three teams unable to play games and the league has to shut down anyway. They aren’t going to play until it’s badically eradicated. 

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

There is at least two months until anyone even thinks of starting back up.  And that is VERY best scenario.  The reality is it will probably be a lot longer.  And yeah, players hate spring trainingas it is let alone two to four months of monotonous nothing matters inter-squad games.

Ding, ding.  We have a winner.  Players have parents and grandparents and older coaches.  They -- and anyone hanging out in groups -- become the Typhoid Marys of the outbreak.  Groups pass around and host the virus.  They go home or to the supermarket or to the hotel and spread it everywhere.  To STOP the spread you stop groups especially.

Also healthy people their age can die.  Just not at the rates of older people.  Remember Doctor Lee who first tried to alert the world to this only to be silenced at first?  He got it and was totally healthy and was in a hospital where they caught it early and started treatment early and yet he still died.  He was only 34.

Also you did see two Yankee minor leaguers have it now.

 

players aren't hanging out with their parents/grand parents during the regular season. older coaches can be protected by not being around the team at this time. it could basically be the 26 man roster and some specific coaching necessary, then when this is moving on things can get back to normal.

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