meh2

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:


today the make or break day??????

For sure not.

I would anticipate the first proposal the Owners passed to be rejected by the Player's Union.  This is the first step in what should be a protracted and heated negotiation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

For sure not.

I would anticipate the first proposal the Owners passed to be rejected by the Player's Union.  This is the first step in what should be a protracted and heated negotiation.

So more drawn out bickering, yea just F it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Whitecloud0101 said:

So more drawn out bickering, yea just F it

I would say there are pretty good odds that this week gets ugly.

Hopefully it will lead to an agreement that gets us baseball at some point, but if seeing the sausage get made is not your bag, yeah I would tune out for a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I would say there are pretty good odds that this week gets ugly.

Hopefully it will lead to an agreement that gets us baseball at some point, but if seeing the sausage get made is not your bag, yeah I would tune out for a bit.

Every major negotiation of this magnitude requires heavy posturing. Get ready for the owners to put out the proposal. It gets rejected. The second proposal is presented that still leaves out something the players want. It gets rejected. MLBPA makes announcement that they are prepared to sit out the season until 2021. MOre negotiations ensue...players ultimately accept less than they originally asked for, but since they started high and expected to lose on something here or there, they vote to go forward for the love of the fans and the game...ie, put a nice face on it so every can feel good about how everyone looked petty in the negotiations and move forward to play ball. I see this coming around 5/22. Like you said, there will be swings back and forth and people in here will have plenty of “see I told ya so!” moments based on articles leaked by each side in a see-Saw till they come to an agreement. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Every major negotiation of this magnitude requires heavy posturing. Get ready for the owners to put out the proposal. It gets rejected. The second proposal is presented that still leaves out something the players want. It gets rejected. MLBPA makes announcement that they are prepared to sit out the season until 2021. MOre negotiations ensue...players ultimately accept less than they originally asked for, but since they started high and expected to lose on something here or there, they vote to go forward for the love of the fans and the game...ie, put a nice face on it so every can feel good about how everyone looked petty in the negotiations and move forward to play ball. I see this coming around 5/22. Like you said, there will be swings back and forth and people in here will have plenty of “see I told ya so!” moments based on articles leaked by each side in a see-Saw till they come to an agreement. 

Who knows?  Maybe it does all get wrapped up today.

But I tend to doubt it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Every major negotiation of this magnitude requires heavy posturing. Get ready for the owners to put out the proposal. It gets rejected. The second proposal is presented that still leaves out something the players want. It gets rejected. MLBPA makes announcement that they are prepared to sit out the season until 2021. MOre negotiations ensue...players ultimately accept less than they originally asked for, but since they started high and expected to lose on something here or there, they vote to go forward for the love of the fans and the game...ie, put a nice face on it so every can feel good about how everyone looked petty in the negotiations and move forward to play ball. I see this coming around 5/22. Like you said, there will be swings back and forth and people in here will have plenty of “see I told ya so!” moments based on articles leaked by each side in a see-Saw till they come to an agreement. 

Yeah this is basically how they all go. I could see some sort of deferred payment plan for for the prorated salaries which Joel Sherman suggested today. I could also see them making the DH permanent after this year which the players assoc. has wanted for years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Or they could agree after a quick revision like the umpire negotiations...I bet the agreement is finalized fairly quickly with what is at stake in causing delays. But a good fight would make things less boring these days so that sounds more interesting. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

Or they could agree after a quick revision like the umpire negotiations...I bet the agreement is finalized fairly quickly with what is at stake in causing delays. But a good fight would make things less boring these days so that sounds more interesting. 

What makes me think not is Tony Clark's statement, this doesn't sound to me like a Union that is chomping at the bit to accept a new agreement on the basis of revenue share -

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/05/mlbpa-chief-tony-clark-on-resumption-of-play.html

"We have an agreement in place that speaks to a reduction in player salaries in a season that’s less than 162 games. That agreement is in place. Any further discussion, then the league has the ability to make additional proposals against the backdrop of situations that may have been contemplated in the initial agreement but are different or may be different moving forward, and we have the ability to respond."

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, I forget who originally linked to it, but props to Sheryl Ring for calling this weeks ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Well if the owners take the greed route then they could be playing with fire. Seems like a lot players are more concerned about health and if pushed by owners on a money point they could easily just say eff it. I’m gonna take the year off and see ya in 2021. It seems owners aren’t really in a good bargaining position for themselves. Perhaps that’s why the umpire situation resolved quickly. Unless the owners stand to lose more money by not playing games then playing games they will find a way to make MLBPA happy enough for 2020 

Edited by tucker26
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

Well if the owners take the greed route then they could be playing with fire. Seems like a lot players are more concerned about health and if pushed by owners on a money point they could easily just say eff it. I’m gonna take the year off and see ya in 2021. It seems owners aren’t really in a good bargaining position for themselves. Perhaps that’s why the umpire situation resolved quickly. Unless the owners stand to lose more money by not playing games then playing games they will find a way to make MLBPA happy enough for 2020 

Here's what their counterargument to the court of public opinion looks like...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonywitrado/2020/05/11/baseball-owners-are-using-a-familiar-playbook-to-blame-players-if-this-season-is-cancelled/#40981532673c

My hope is that they can come to an understanding that a "nuclear option" didn't help anyone in '95-'97, and won't help them now.

But who knows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Confirming more or less what we already know...

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29162217/owners-approve-mlb-season-proposal-plan-players-association-preps-see-next

Major League Baseball owners have approved a proposal to present to players for the 2020 season, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan and multiple reports.

MLB plans to meet with the players union Tuesday to discuss the proposal and start negotiations, according to Passan and reports.

A person familiar with the decision told The Associated Press that the delayed season would start around the Fourth of July weekend in ballparks without fans. The plan envisions expanding the designated hitter to the National League for 2020, as well.

Spring training would start in early to mid-June. Each team would play about 82 regular-season games, most against opponents in its own division. Postseason play would be expanded from 10 clubs to 14 by doubling wild cards in each league to four.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Confirming more or less what we already know...

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29162217/owners-approve-mlb-season-proposal-plan-players-association-preps-see-next

Major League Baseball owners have approved a proposal to present to players for the 2020 season, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan and multiple reports.

MLB plans to meet with the players union Tuesday to discuss the proposal and start negotiations, according to Passan and reports.

A person familiar with the decision told The Associated Press that the delayed season would start around the Fourth of July weekend in ballparks without fans. The plan envisions expanding the designated hitter to the National League for 2020, as well.

Spring training would start in early to mid-June. Each team would play about 82 regular-season games, most against opponents in its own division. Postseason play would be expanded from 10 clubs to 14 by doubling wild cards in each league to four.

Awesome. Let's make it even easier for the Dodgers to make the playoffs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there any clarity on how prospects are treated? There are a ton of questions I still have and it has wide effects on fantasy this year. There's several scenarios, here's a few off top of my head related to higher profile prospects:

Dylan Carlson - Was expected to be a call up in mid to late April, after Cards can guarantee service time but before Super Two. Will they be penalized if they start him immediately? Will it still be the same month of time we will need to wait? If so, losing a month when the season is 3 months is huge and really dings his value. On other hand, could be up at start as he's only playing 82 games, which would be a boon. Essentially a swing of a month of equivalent play in the balance.

Nate Pearson - Was expected to be a Super Two call up in mid June. If season starts in July, could he just start with team and retain super two? If so, a boon for owners who spent a last round pick on him. But what if teams will have to wait month or two for Super Two like normal? Then he may only be playing the month of September and is a waste. Again, huge shift in value here.

Wander Franco - Was expected to maybe have a chance at September call up. If this is the same the value of one month of games is much more in a 3 month season. But in short season maybe players will accrue too much to even be September call ups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Is there any clarity on how prospects are treated? There are a ton of questions I still have and it has wide effects on fantasy this year. There's several scenarios, here's a few off top of my head related to higher profile prospects:

Dylan Carlson - Was expected to be a call up in mid to late April, after Cards can guarantee service time but before Super Two. Will they be penalized if they start him immediately? Will it still be the same month of time we will need to wait? If so, losing a month when the season is 3 months is huge and really dings his value. On other hand, could be up at start as he's only playing 82 games, which would be a boon. Essentially a swing of a month of equivalent play in the balance.

Nate Pearson - Was expected to be a Super Two call up in mid June. If season starts in July, could he just start with team and retain super two? If so, a boon for owners who spent a last round pick on him. But what if teams will have to wait month or two for Super Two like normal? Then he may only be playing the month of September and is a waste. Again, huge shift in value here.

Wander Franco - Was expected to maybe have a chance at September call up. If this is the same the value of one month of games is much more in a 3 month season. But in short season maybe players will accrue too much to even be September call ups.

I heard on the In This League podcast that teams would have to give a year of service time after the first game played. I just commented in the short season strategy Thread about this. Basically, if this is the case, any players who teams want up later, might as well be up now. Especially with no real minor league solution, players need to get development somewhere. Especially pitchers who need to keep building up innings. With a tight schedule, doubleheaders and expanded rosters, I could see many of the top near-ready and ready prospects added to opening day rosters and some SP’s playing 6th men in rotations. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I heard on the In This League podcast that teams would have to give a year of service time after the first game played. I just commented in the short season strategy Thread about this. Basically, if this is the case, any players who teams want up later, might as well be up now. Especially with no real minor league solution, players need to get development somewhere. Especially pitchers who need to keep building up innings. With a tight schedule, doubleheaders and expanded rosters, I could see many of the top near-ready and ready prospects added to opening day rosters and some SP’s playing 6th men in rotations. 

It should be pointed out that the current agreement revised in March was that a prorated service time clock would be used. 
 

At that juncture, MLB for 2020 was willing to grant a full year of service time at 130 days rather than the usual 172. If the season doesn't last long, then MLB would prorate downward

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:


of course they did

For decades owners have kept people in the dark about how they make their money.

Now they're going to ask for the players union to accept a revenue share model they've been deliberately been kept in the dark on, vote on it knowing that they'll make less money than they previously agreed to, and probably wedge in a long term model that'll institute a salary cap they fought against.

And some people will side with owners, for God knows what reasons.  Probably talking about how no one should have sympathy for millionaires (without acknowledging that they're tacitly sympathizing with billionaire in such an argument, and an agreement was already in place).  Sigh.  Just like 1994.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

im not sure how to make all the parties whole here, but the lack of baseball has been a hole in my life.

 

the salaries of baseball are inherently broken because the failure rate for prospects is so high. team average is 132 million for payroll. there will probably be a number of teams who will lose money without the attendance figures. there are teams that could probably survive.

what is a reasonable amount of money for the owners to make. yikes. glad im not involved negotiating this mess.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, iphone said:

there will probably be a number of teams who will lose money without the attendance figures. 

It's estimated that about 30% of the revenue comes from the gate.  So you can see the math here doesn't add up with this hypothesis.

Here are the revenues by team -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

And here are the payrolls -

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/2019/team/all/

You prorate both the revenues to account for that lost 30%, and then the prorated salaries and the lost revenue from missed games is a wash.  It's still plenty profitable for someone to own a baseball game that gets played in empty stands on TV.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Couple questions on SP

 

1. Will Starters have enough time to build arm strength to go 90-100 pitchers early in the season?

2. If no, how on earth do you score this in fantasy leagues?? (H2H pts)  

 

Was listening to Mad Dog yesterday and he said starters would go like 3 inn... That could be a fantasy disaster. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.