meh2

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

Recommended Posts

34 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

I know, right!  But a lot of people get hung up on comparing it to the 0.1% mortality rate of the flu, but miss the big picture that what matters is the absolute number of critically ill patients at once. You can get to a high number with a deadly virus, or, which is more likely a very high infection rate.  

 

 

 

 

 

I'm aware how it works. I'm also aware that calling the mortality rate of a virus irrelevant is absurd.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

 

I'm aware how it works. I'm also aware that calling the mortality rate of a virus irrelevant is absurd.

 

OK, I'll give you that. But when we are talking about overwhelming the system, which is where the worry is, the most important variable is the prevalence of disease at any one time, not comparing the mortality rate to the flu's mortality rate, which is what a lot of people get hung up on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

OK, I'll give you that. 

 

No buts. Mortality rates are crucial pieces in the scope of epidemics and pandemics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

OK, I'll give you that. But when we are talking about overwhelming the system, which is where the worry is, the most important variable is the prevalence of disease at any one time, not comparing the mortality rate to the flu's mortality rate, which is what a lot of people get hung up on. 

 

This is the fundamental issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

No buts. Mortality rates are crucial pieces in the scope of epidemics and pandemics.

 

Come on, don't be obtuse. You know what I mean. The exact mortality rate, whether it is 0.5, 1.0, 2.0  is not as important right now as the prevalence of disease. Plus the mortality rate will go up if we overwhelm the system.  The most important variable in how we get through this is how many patients are sick at once and whether the system can handle the load.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

 

 

Remember the strike season killed casual fandom in baseball.  Which is another reason why I think they will make sure they play this year.  The next few days of data are critical. 

 

Also I want to say all this we are 2 weeks behind Italy talk is absolute fear mongering the death rate (even with a lack of testing) in America is 1.81% (last night i saw 111 deaths in 6125 cases) Italy's death rate was always well above 5% and now is 8.95% as of an article I this morning.  I heard an expert yesterday say that the global death rate if you take out Italy and China is on a daily basis between 0.7% - 0.8% making it only 7 - 8 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.  Which I'm not down playing that because that is bad but not nearly as bad as the current 4% global death rate.  Again increasing efficiency for testing will continue to increase the denominator (# of cases) dropping the death rates.

 

The world has learned from previous pandemics and we are currently in the stage of over reaction which is a good thing.

 

I have zero doubt that MLB will try to play this year. Key word is "try" though. They will play if it's within their control. I've heard the number 18 months thrown around until things get back to normal, which would put next year in Jeopardy for baseball. 

Also, the 1.8 number might be sky high.  Way more than the number of reported cases exists.  But even at .8-1%, it doesn't take a genius to understand thats a gigantic death toll if you get like 75-85% of the country getting it at some point, which some reports say is likely.  

That being said, we have the best people in the entire World working on this. Something will eventually break through to mitigate the fatality rate even more so, even before a vaccine. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

So if the season is cancelled how many of you are coming back next year?  Does this kill off the casual player?  Do you find new things to do with your time and decide to not spend it on fantasy sports?

Seriously? I’m willing to bet every single one of us on here who are active come back day one.

Im all sure that most of us here have something to do (I have some wood working projects in mind) to help pass time.

That being said, MLB is closer to its first case for its first MLB’er.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28921921/reds-staff-member-arizona-test-positive-coronavirus

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

Seriously? I’m willing to bet every single one of us on here who are active come back day one.

Im all sure that most of us here have something to do (I have some wood working projects in mind) to help pass time.

That being said, MLB is closer to its first case for its first MLB’er.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28921921/reds-staff-member-arizona-test-positive-coronavirus

 

Yeah I think like a lot of things we maybe took for granted in life, competitive sports will be appreciated even more now.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

Come on, don't be obtuse. You know what I mean. The exact mortality rate, whether it is 0.5, 1.0, 2.0  is not as important right now as the prevalence of disease. Plus the mortality rate will go up if we overwhelm the system.  The most important variable in how we get through this is how many patients are sick at once and whether the system can handle the load.  

 

Obtuse? You literally said that mortality rate is irrelevant. If you didn't mean that mortality rate is irrelevant, just less important, then don't say it's irrelevant.

 

If we expect 25% of the population to get this at some point (or whatever the number is at) then a 7% mortality rate (Italy) is massively different than a 2% mortality rate (USA) or lower (South Korea). It's relevant and pointing out that it's relevant doesn't make me obtuse.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

So if the season is cancelled how many of you are coming back next year?  Does this kill off the casual player?  Do you find new things to do with your time and decide to not spend it on fantasy sports?

 

If there were no other sports I could see casuals moving onto other sports, but its not like there is anything to fill the void. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/13/2020 at 1:46 PM, Fbaseballgod said:

Like, say Degrom has an advantage of +2 FANTASYPOINTS (FP) over Urias every start.  If you only have 10 games, he's getting you +20 points.  If you have 100 games, he's getting you +200 points.

I know this was just an example, but why are you using 100 starts by a SP to illustrate your point? At least use a realistic scenario

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Obtuse? You literally said that mortality rate is irrelevant. If you didn't mean that mortality rate is irrelevant, just less important, then don't say it's irrelevant.

 

If we expect 25% of the population to get this at some point (or whatever the number is at) then a 7% mortality rate (Italy) is massively different than a 2% mortality rate (USA) or lower (South Korea). It's relevant and pointing out that it's relevant doesn't make me obtuse.


 

Yeah obtuse. The most important factor right now is if we overwhelm the medical system. With regard to that question it is less important as to whether it is 0.5, 1.0 or 2.0 death rate. What matters is if it is 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 60% or even 80% infection rate. With a collectively naive immune system we could have extremely high infection rates all at once without intervention. Even at seasonal flu death rates a 60% infection rate would overwhelm our system if concentrated over 3 months.  
 

Ebola had 50-90% death rates but was relatively inconsequential on a global public health scale since it had such a low prevalence.  Yes, from an individual perspective death rate is obviously the key number. But from a public health/ health system perspective, Infection rate is clearly the key number.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To try to get this back to baseball, how short of a spring training could they get by with?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

To try to get this back to baseball, how short of a spring training could they get by with?

 

I saw on Mlb Network ex-players saying that 2 weeks might be sufficient.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest on baseball:

Quote

The Associated Press reports that Major League Baseball is considering skipping the 2020 MLB Draft and putting off the international signing period.

The draft is supposed to take place in Omaha on June 2 in Omaha, but with the College World Series canceled and the season postponed indefinitely due to the COVID-19 virus, baseball is reportedly considering a radical change, with financial reasons cited as one of the main factors. The IFA signing period begins on July 2, but it also appears in danger. These issues -- as well as how to credit service time for prospects when the season does start -- are major talking points that will need to be ironed quickly, and the AP reports that the union and MLB are in discussions; with an anonymous source telling the Associated Press one proposal is to credit full service for 130 games or more and proportional service for if the season is shortened. Among the other issues being debated include a transaction freeze, allowances for minor-league players, and relaxations on roster rules.

Source: Associated Press                               Mar 18, 2020, 9:09 PM ET

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like the cheaters win again. I suppose the Astros would just lose picks from next years draft? And when the heck is the Red Sox punishment going to be heard?  Red Sox already seemed to have stepped in sh--- with the trade they made.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

Yeah I think like a lot of things we maybe took for granted in life, competitive sports will be appreciated even more now.  

Oh, I know. Eight years ago I was dying on a mountain after suffering a horrific snowmobile accident. ICU for a week and 40 days in a hospital. I discovered there are MANY things we all take for granted.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, charger_ss24 said:

Oh, I know. Eight years ago I was dying on a mountain after suffering a horrific snowmobile accident. ICU for a week and 40 days in a hospital. I discovered there are MANY things we all take for granted.

Glad ya made it brother!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Sounds like the cheaters win again. I suppose the Astros would just lose picks from next years draft? And when the heck is the Red Sox punishment going to be heard?  Red Sox already seemed to have stepped in sh--- with the trade they made.

 

Manfred said the Red Sox punishment will take a back step to the coronavirus response. So I think it could still be a long while away. No reason for them to be working on that right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Manfred said the Red Sox punishment will take a back step to the coronavirus response. So I think it could still be a long while away. No reason for them to be working on that right now.

Idk how much work needs to be done.  They said they were going to have a decision long before CV was really being talked about.  Face it Manfred is incompetent. Thanks for the reply though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With this virus likely shortening the season, do you guys think SP value goes below hitter value for roto leagues? (sorry if this is the wrong place to ask).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm definitely drafting Kopech earlier. He will be nearly 2 full years removed from TJS by the time the season starts. He may have very little rust to knock off at this point and given his ADP, he's worth a grab in just about every league IMO. Upside of a 3-3.50 ERA with elite K numbers is hard to come by when filling out the back half of your fantasy rotation.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://bgr.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-impact-bill-gates-reddit-ama/

Bill Gates's thoughts, if anyone's interested. I imagine he's pretty tuned in. He (read: whoever he talked to about this stuff) says 6-10 weeks (quarantine/lockdown/whatever) and then a possible resumption of regular life is possible. That at least gives me hope that we'll have a season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:


 

Yeah obtuse. The most important factor right now is if we overwhelm the medical system. With regard to that question it is less important as to whether it is 0.5, 1.0 or 2.0 death rate. What matters is if it is 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 60% or even 80% infection rate. With a collectively naive immune system we could have extremely high infection rates all at once without intervention. Even at seasonal flu death rates a 60% infection rate would overwhelm our system if concentrated over 3 months.  
 

Ebola had 50-90% death rates but was relatively inconsequential on a global public health scale since it had such a low prevalence.  Yes, from an individual perspective death rate is obviously the key number. But from a public health/ health system perspective, Infection rate is clearly the key number.  

 

 

Stop being obtuse. Nothing I said was about what numbers are more key or more important. My entire issue is with you calling mortality rate of a pandemic causing virus “irrelevant”.

 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he mispoke, or maybe was using hyperbole. He was trying to make the point that the absolute number of infections can make a low mortality rate catastrophic even though it might not sound bad at first.  e.g .6% of 200 million people is a lot of people.  He could have phrased it better. Obviously the mortality rate is not actually "irrelevant."  So you are right about that.

Let's move on.

 

2 hours ago, nlm said:

With this virus likely shortening the season, do you guys think SP value goes below hitter value for roto leagues? (sorry if this is the wrong place to ask).

 

This was the argument on the rotowire pod today.  They feel like your big volume guys, like Grenke, will be especially diminished.  I'm not sure if that's true.  

I think guys who have had their starts limited will go up in value and so the volume guys will lose value relative to them.  However, the value of a guy who often goes 7-9 innings versus a guy who usually goes 5-6 shouldn't really change.  

Then, take Ohtani.  I think they are gonna put him on a long rotation either way, so he really shouldn't benefit or be harmed. (Though he will benefit from the delayed start.)

I think the bottom line is that you have to look at each individual pitcher.

More innings per start is still valuable.

Guys with normal rotation spots who usually get skipped due to caps or flag at the end of the year go up. 

Guys who's major skill is that they just crank out 30 starts every year go down.  
 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.