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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Baseball Impact

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Stop being obtuse. Nothing I said was about what numbers are more key or more important. My entire issue is with you calling mortality rate of a pandemic causing virus “irrelevant”.

 


I’ll stand by my crux of my opinion that the exact death rate is not that important right now. And I held out an olive branch by saying perhaps irrelevant was the wrong word (to which you replied “no buts” as if there was no room for nuance). It is deadly enough to put everyone at grave risk, particularly our health care workers (of whom I am one). So forgive me if I really don’t care if I have a 0.5 or 2.0 percent chance of death if I get infected. Given the potential infection rate, it’s deadly enough, IMO.   

Edited by bluefrogguy

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16 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:


I’ll stand by my crux of my opinion that the exact death rate is not that important right now. And I held out an olive branch by saying perhaps irrelevant was the wrong word (to which you replied “no buts” as if there was no room for nuance). It is deadly enough to put everyone at grave risk, particularly our health care workers (of whom I am oathMne). So forgive me if I really don’t care if I have a 0.5 or 2.0 percent chance of death if I get infected. Given the potential infection rate, it’s deadly enough, IMO.   

Saying you don't care what the death rate is because the infection rate is high is extremely troubling. Since 1.5 difference in death rate means so much more with a high infection rate.

You are simply trying to say "this is a dangerous virus due to infection rate, that is why we need to take this seriously" That is fine.

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15 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Saying you don't care what the death rate is because the infection rate is high is extremely troubling. Since 1.5 difference in death rate means so much more with a high infection rate.

You are simply trying to say "this is a dangerous virus due to infection rate, that is why we need to take this seriously" That is fine.


I will still submit the death rate is a head fake in some ways. The number that matters is the to total number of critically ill patients at risk of death. If we find out that there are lots of asymptomatic patients (that decreases the death rate) that could make the situation worse as there are more people spreading the disease (increasing the prevalence) and overwhelming our system. 

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3 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

I think he mispoke, or maybe was using hyperbole. He was trying to make the point that the absolute number of infections can make a low mortality rate catastrophic even though it might not sound bad at first.  e.g .6% of 200 million people is a lot of people.  He could have phrased it better. Obviously the mortality rate is not actually "irrelevant."  So you are right about that.

Let's move on.

 

 

This was the argument on the rotowire pod today.  They feel like your big volume guys, like Grenke, will be especially diminished.  I'm not sure if that's true.  

I think guys who have had their starts limited will go up in value and so the volume guys will lose value relative to them.  However, the value of a guy who often goes 7-9 innings versus a guy who usually goes 5-6 shouldn't really change.  

Then, take Ohtani.  I think they are gonna put him on a long rotation either way, so he really shouldn't benefit or be harmed. (Though he will benefit from the delayed start.)

I think the bottom line is that you have to look at each individual pitcher.

More innings per start is still valuable.

Guys with normal rotation spots who usually get skipped due to caps or flag at the end of the year go up. 

Guys who's major skill is that they just crank out 30 starts every year go down.  
 

 

 

What would say you say about a team that has a staff full of #1 pitchers? Would they be safer? I'm just curious.

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7 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:


I will still submit the death rate is a head fake in some ways. The number that matters is the to total number of critically ill patients at risk of death. If we find out that there are lots of asymptomatic patients (that decreases the death rate) that could make the situation worse as there are more people spreading the disease (increasing the prevalence) and overwhelming our system. 

Probably shouldn’t have used irrelevant (which you since admitted), but I get exactly what you’re saying. Incubation period and overwhelming the system has always been the big threat here and what makes this virus unique. 
Of course death rate matters. Lives matter. But overwhelming the system is what can/will turn this into a much greater disaster.

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The games in Mexico and Puerto Rico have been cancelled officially by MLB.

Quote

The Diamondbacks announced Thursday that their April 18-19 series against the Padres in Mexico City has been canceled amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Quote

MLB's Puerto Rico Series, scheduled for April 28-30 between the Mets and Marlins, has officially been canceled.

Obviously this was a no brainer -- especially Mexico which was in mid-April -- but it is "official" now.

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7 hours ago, bluefrogguy said:


I’ll stand by my crux of my opinion that the exact death rate is not that important right now. And I held out an olive branch by saying perhaps irrelevant was the wrong word (to which you replied “no buts” as if there was no room for nuance). It is deadly enough to put everyone at grave risk, particularly our health care workers (of whom I am one). So forgive me if I really don’t care if I have a 0.5 or 2.0 percent chance of death if I get infected. Given the potential infection rate, it’s deadly enough, IMO.   

 

If 10million people get infected that's the difference of 200,000 deaths (2%) and 50,000 deaths (.5%), regardless if you really care or not. Calling that irrelevant is ridiculous.

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7 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Saying you don't care what the death rate is because the infection rate is high is extremely troubling. Since 1.5 difference in death rate means so much more with a high infection rate.

You are simply trying to say "this is a dangerous virus due to infection rate, that is why we need to take this seriously" That is fine.

 

This is spot on. It's a devastating virus because of the infection rate, but that doesn't make the mortality rate irrelevant. 2% of 10 million dying is a lot worse than 0.5% of 10 million dying. 2% of 100million dying is a lot worse than 0.5% of 100million dying.

 

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I see this on the yahoo page.

Quote

We have updated important dates for Yahoo Fantasy Baseball to reflect the latest news:

  • Season Start: 5/7
  • Live Drafts End: 6/21
  • Full Season Registration Ends: 7/5
  • All Drafts End: 7/6

We are working on adding more draft dates for Pro Leagues. We are constantly monitoring the situation and we will update our members with any new developments or decisions HERE .

 

May 7th for the start, or yahoo just guessing?

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5 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

I see this on the yahoo page.

 

May 7th for the start, or yahoo just guessing?

I believe that’s the 8th week mark of when the Pres. said 8 weeks. Yahoo knowing nothing will happen prior to that date. I’m sure they will eventually push it back.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

I see this on the yahoo page.

May 7th for the start, or yahoo just guessing?

They had to reset their start date quickly was all and just chose the best scenario date for now.  If things don't get better they will simply reset the date again within a week or two of that deadline.  So no.  Yahoo is not the only entity on the entire planet earth that has super secret squirrel information on how long the coronavirus will last.  (Though I like the idea that Yahoo would actually knows something about something, heh).

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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27 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

They had to reset their start date quickly was all and just chose the best scenario date for now.  If things don't get better they will simply reset the date again within a week or two of that deadline.  So no.  Yahoo is not the only entity on the entire planet earth that has super secret squirrel information on how long the coronavirus will last.  (Though I like the idea that Yahoo would actually knows something about something, heh).

I don't trust Yahoo's projection models for fantasy players, much less their projection models on global pandemic that the world's foremost doctors and scientists are struggling to get a handle on.

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How would a cancelled season effect prospects? Consider Wander Franco. This WAS a realistic timeline for him:

2020 1st half: Double A

2020 2nd half: Triple A

Late 2020: Possible cup of coffee

April 2021: Up for good

 

Does this timeline get pushed back a full year now or does he just get rushed through the minors to still be up early 2021?

 

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2 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

How would a cancelled season effect prospects? Consider Wander Franco. This WAS a realistic timeline for him:

2020 1st half: Double A

2020 2nd half: Triple A

Late 2020: Possible cup of coffee

April 2021: Up for good

 

Does this timeline get pushed back a full year now or does he just get rushed through the minors to still be up early 2021?

 

We are discussing that in a specific prospects/coronavirus thread as well as individual player threads in the Minor League Forum right now.

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With the upcoming compressed schedule, and the increasing likelihood that MLB enacts some sort of doubleheader strategy to make up the games, I believe there are some values to be had in 6th starter situations, and perhaps some depressed values as some pitchers will lose starts.  I thought it might be interesting to have some discussion.  

Increase:

Kopech, May, Luzardo, Urias

I know there are a bunch more and I will come back and add some, but just wanted to get the discussion started.  High likelihood that some of these younger arms will earn more consistent innings.  Instead of a difference of 100 innings between a guy like Dustin May and a standard starter, the difference may be more like 50-60 innings, which is a huge increase in value.  Same for a guy like Urias who was almost certainly going to be shut down at some point in the season with a normal schedule.  Luzardo is in the same boat as Urias...just not enough innings in the past to warrant 180, so would probably be capped around 130-140 for the year.

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Best case scenario I am seeing a July 1st start based on what it will take to completely suppress this virus to manageable levels.

 

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11 minutes ago, B&F said:

Best case scenario I am seeing a July 1st start based on what it will take to completely suppress this virus to manageable levels.

 

 

that's honestly not a best case scenario, they would just cancel the season if the season just starts in July. I can honestly still see the season starting in Mid-May, or June if they just go to empty stadiums for a while. A lot of places are finally going into shelter in place and that could start to help stop the spread in the next 3-5 weeks.

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28 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

that's honestly not a best case scenario, they would just cancel the season if the season just starts in July. I can honestly still see the season starting in Mid-May, or June if they just go to empty stadiums for a while. A lot of places are finally going into shelter in place and that could start to help stop the spread in the next 3-5 weeks.

I think we are the only ones on the boat when stating baseball at some point in May.

I truly do not see any reason why this isnt possible if we continue to make progress in controlling the virus.

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YAHOO QUESTION:

They have set the tentative start date for May 7th (earliest it can possibly start when factoring in the 8 week ban)

I have my draft this week coming up. I am the commish and can alter settings.

I notice that they have the earliest trade deadline now set for September 6th,2020. The playoff weeks i had set was 21,22,23 which is now set on Yahoo having it end on October 25h,2020.

Will this be a problem not knowing when the league will officially start? What if the season itself is simply shortened and not extended to fit in 162 games? Do we loose our playoffs?

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Just now, jonninho said:

I think we are the only ones on the boat when stating baseball at some point in May.

I truly do not see any reason why this isnt possible if we continue to make progress in controlling the virus.

 

Also there is talk about extended the season into November and possibly December with moving games to neutral sites, ie. domed stadiums and places in the south. This has been a really crappy year so far for everyone, and if we still got a full season of games of baseball that would brighten things up for me at least somewhat.

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1 minute ago, jonninho said:

YAHOO QUESTION:

They have set the tentative start date for May 7th (earliest it can possibly start when factoring in the 8 week ban)

I have my draft this week coming up. I am the commish and can alter settings.

I notice that they have the earliest trade deadline now set for September 6th,2020. The playoff weeks i had set was 21,22,23 which is now set on Yahoo having it end on October 25h,2020.

Will this be a problem not knowing when the league will officially start? What if the season itself is simply shortened and not extended to fit in 162 games? Do we loose our playoffs?

 

They are probably going to keep changing things. It does seem like Mlb is determined to extend the regular season through at least the end of October.

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36 minutes ago, jonninho said:

YAHOO QUESTION:

They have set the tentative start date for May 7th (earliest it can possibly start when factoring in the 8 week ban)

I have my draft this week coming up. I am the commish and can alter settings.

I notice that they have the earliest trade deadline now set for September 6th,2020. The playoff weeks i had set was 21,22,23 which is now set on Yahoo having it end on October 25h,2020.

Will this be a problem not knowing when the league will officially start? What if the season itself is simply shortened and not extended to fit in 162 games? Do we loose our playoffs?

This should go in the Platforms Thread however ... as commish as you know you can set what you want.  Just ASK Yahoo directly how you should set your playoffs before the draft.  That's what their HELP feature is for.  You just have to find the HELP feature which they hide in the very teeny tiny gray print at the bottom of the Overview page which you access via the Baseball '20 Menu.

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FWIW Grey at Razzball revised all of his projections for a 100 game season. Heres his top 500 list. 

https://razzball.com/top-500-for-2020-fantasy-baseball/

I think Heaney has now become a good target. I feel like he could actually survive 2/3 of a season. 

Quick "equivalencies" for a 100 game season:

125 IP extrapolates to 200 IP

375 PA extrapolates too 600 PA

 

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On 3/21/2020 at 11:24 AM, B&F said:

Best case scenario I am seeing a July 1st start based on what it will take to completely suppress this virus to manageable levels.

 

 

The goal never was to completely suppress the virus (that could take until Christmas) ... the goal is to flatten the curve as to not overwhelm the health care system.  At some point everyone is going to go back to work with the risk (much smaller and more spread out than had there not been shut downs) of getting infected.

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I know it's a big IF! But if we do see MLB this year how important is having playoffs and a World Series champion this season? I ask the question because we could then use the month for more games for the whole league.

 

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