ginocan

Ryan Tannehill 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

4 years $118 mil with 62 guaranteed. 
 

Get that money! 
 

Despite the tag of being a game manager. Somehow I think he will end up on most of my teams if I go full blown no QBs route. 
 

Edited by ginocan

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He's always been pretty fantasy-friendly even back in Miami as he can actually get you some rushing yards. I remember he finished as QB1 for several seasons in 12-team leagues even though most people considered him a QB2. 

 

Well-deserved new contract. He completely turned their season around. I would've been very disappointed had they not rewarded him.

 

 

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Great move by Tennessee and a solid move for fantasy purposes. You take pretty much the same team that made the AFC championship this year into next year with big game playoff experience now. 

For the regular season he should post similar #s to last year. Same receivers, same OLine, same monster RB who could not be stopped in the 2nd half of last year. They say defenses will adjust, but how do you adjust when a RB just literally runs right through your players? If Henry stays strong, Tannehill will reap the benefits once again. 

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So where does Mariota go, a rebuild project in NE? 😂

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5 hours ago, ginocan said:

4 years $118 mil with 62 guaranteed. 
 

Get that money! 
 

Despite the tag of being a game manager. Somehow I think he will end up on most of my teams if I go full blown no QBs route. 
 

 

tanenhil, Cousins,Matt Ryan etc, all of these guys are above average game managers but put them n the right system and dont ask them to carry the team every week and they will help you win games

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Las Vegas with Gruden maybe

 

Is he a Gruden type of guy? Looking at Grudens QB history on tampa and the old raiders they all seem to be vet journeymen game manager type of QB's

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17 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Is he a Gruden type of guy? Looking at Grudens QB history on tampa and the old raiders they all seem to be vet journeymen game manager type of QB's

He indeed is. Just got signed by the Raiders.

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Once he took over and got his first full start at QB for TEN in week 7 - week 17, Tannehill was the #3 scoring fantasy QB overall (225.02 pts) and #3 per game (22.50 PPG)** he would be #4 PPG if you want to count Stafford's 3 games played during that time.

Most early rankings have Tanny being ranked in the QB16-20 range (The Athletic's Jake Ciely has him at QB27...)

Totally undervalued at this point and a QB I will for sure be targeting if his current ADP holds.

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Way ahead of you

Until you grab Tua, I suppose.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2020 at 4:09 PM, J.T. Marlin said:

Once he took over and got his first full start at QB for TEN in week 7 - week 17, Tannehill was the #3 scoring fantasy QB overall (225.02 pts) and #3 per game (22.50 PPG)** he would be #4 PPG if you want to count Stafford's 3 games played during that time.

Most early rankings have Tanny being ranked in the QB16-20 range (The Athletic's Jake Ciely has him at QB27...)

Totally undervalued at this point and a QB I will for sure be targeting if his current ADP holds.

 

QB27 is pretty dumb but Tannehill is more of a QB2. He's still going to be a low-volume/game manager QB. Only averaged 27 attempts a game but made up for it with ridiculous efficiency. Like seriously, some his game logs last season look like video game numbers. Huge regression candidate across the board, especially the rushing TDs. Came into last season with 6 career rushing TDs in 88 career games and had 4 in just 10 starts.

Edited by Evincar

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5 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

QB27 is pretty dumb but Tannehill is more of a QB2. He's still going to be a low-volume/game manager QB. Only averaged 27 attempts a game but made up for it with ridiculous efficiency. Like seriously, some his game logs last season look like video game numbers. Huge regression candidate across the board, especially the rushing TDs. Came into last season with 6 career rushing TDs in 88 career games and had 4 in just 10 starts.

 

this is what logic tells us. and your stance is 100% defensible. everything we saw last season suggests regression, at least in efficiency.

that said, for the dreamers among us, i like @J.T. Marlin's take that tannehill is entirely undervalued. true, it's axually axe elf's original stance, but the elf had tannehill breaking out on the dolphins. is it at least possible that 1) tannehill's "career" numbers are misleading, because the dolphins were such a nursery school fire? 2) that tannehill, now that he's played for the titans and has helped to lead them into the playoffs, he will continue in this role? and maybe we'll see the coaches building around his strengths? 3) that with the freight train who is derrick henry, it makes an efficient QB particularly more lethal (a lethal QB more efficient?) as defenses scramble to adjust for a well-balanced offence in skill, despite a run-heavy percentage of plays? 4) that some exceptional WRs, and solid offensive blocking, help to lift tannehill even further? 

seems to me there is at least another plausible take: it is tannehill who is the lightning to derrick henry's thunder. 

while dak prescott and kyler murray are the clearest QB winners from off-season / draft, and they are both locks for the top 12, who can say if wentz or big ben or even the elderly brees and brady can make it through the full season. aaron rodgers has youth enough and talent to spare, but his fantasy success is undermined by the front office and coaching and overall lack of receiving talent. i see goff and cousins more in that QB2 range. 

it would not surprise me to find tannehill in the QB8-12 range at season's end, i.e. QB1.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

seems to me there is at least another plausible take: it is tannehill who is the lightning to derrick henry's thunder. 

I still have trouble accepting that AxeElf and @DerrickHenrysCleats were both right. My world view is shattered, my head hurts.

c3mb.gif

I'm not entirely sure but I think this must be one of the harbingers of the apocalypse. 

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13 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

... My world view is shattered, my head hurts.

I'm not entirely sure but I think this must be one of the harbingers of the apocalypse. 

 

the pestilence of quarantine fuels your insight... let's hope to ward off the apocalypse for yet one more season...

xyVDD0.gif 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

the pestilence of quarantine fuels your insight... let's hope to ward off the apocalypse for yet one more season...

xyVDD0.gif 

 

Nvm

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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35 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I still have trouble accepting that AxeElf and @DerrickHenrysCleats were both right. My world view is shattered, my head hurts.

c3mb.gif

I'm not entirely sure but I think this must be one of the harbingers of the apocalypse. 

 

1254172884282.jpg_1254173845.cf (1).jpg

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Posted (edited)

Man was a fringe top 5 QB last year and is still so disrespected

Targeting him to stack with a guy like Daniel Jones

Had horrendous offensive lines, average (on the high end) receiving weapons and awful coaching with Gase and Philbin in Miami, and still showed flashes

You'd think Drake and Parker's successes would prove this to most, but no...they just look at his record in Miami and think he's a fluke who sucks

 

With no Jurrell Casey and no Clowney coming in apparently and a new coordinator the Titans D is due for a little regression forcing more passing volume to make up for the decline in efficiency

 

I hate Miami didn't use him right and gave him to a Titans team that was a QB away from being a legit AFC force

Even when we beat them in the playoffs I was nervous until the mid 4th quarter with how well and surgically they were operating when in rhythm even with average skill position talent (besides Henry and AJB)

Have a feeling it's going to be round 1 and there are more playoff matchups against the Titans ahead in the future

 

Long term could be even better for him with the Titans likely to pick a WR in the first two rounds next year to complement AJB with Corey Davis's contract up

And then there's the possibility of even more volume if Henry walks next offseason (though you can debate if this is a net positive)

 

Was way more impressed with him than that bum Garoppolo

Edited by mocha4313

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1 hour ago, mocha4313 said:

Man was a fringe top 5 QB last year and is still so disrespected

Targeting him to stack with a guy like Daniel Jones

Had horrendous offensive lines, average (on the high end) receiving weapons and awful coaching with Gase and Philbin in Miami, and still showed flashes

You'd think Drake and Parker's successes would prove this to most, but no...they just look at his record in Miami and think he's a fluke who sucks

 

With no Jurrell Casey and no Clowney coming in apparently and a new coordinator the Titans D is due for a little regression forcing more passing volume to make up for the decline in efficiency

 

I hate Miami didn't use him right and gave him to a Titans team that was a QB away from being a legit AFC force

Even when we beat them in the playoffs I was nervous until the mid 4th quarter with how well and surgically they were operating when in rhythm even with average skill position talent (besides Henry and AJB)

Have a feeling it's going to be round 1 and there are more playoff matchups against the Titans ahead in the future

 

Long term could be even better for him with the Titans likely to pick a WR in the first two rounds next year to complement AJB with Corey Davis's contract up

And then there's the possibility of even more volume if Henry walks next offseason (though you can debate if this is a net positive)

 

Was way more impressed with him than that bum Garoppolo

Jimmy G is disadvantaged by his system - not due to his inability.  Henry isn’t going to walk - if drafting now, assume he’s destined for the Titans.  I love Tannehill but we shouldn’t assume his scheme didn’t play a major role in his development.

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21 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Jimmy G is disadvantaged by his system - not due to his inability.  Henry isn’t going to walk - if drafting now, assume he’s destined for the Titans.  I love Tannehill but we shouldn’t assume his scheme didn’t play a major role in his development.

I don't see Jimmy G as that disadvantaged by his system. He has better weapons than Tanny does: AJB>>Deebo, Kittle>>>>>>>>>>>Corey Davis (still a believer but needs to get out of Tennessee to a team that throws more into tighter windows)+everything else the Titans have--the real issue from a fantasy perspective with him is the lack of volume. Which to me is a reflection of the trust Shanahan has in him considering he let Matt Ryan air it out all the way to an MVP season despite having two really talented RBs (Freeman and Coleman back when they were good)

And then of course my memory of Garoppolo comes in big part from one game

Back to Tanny though: The Titans strike me as a smart organization with Patriots connections: I really have a hard time seeing them giving a big, long contract to any RB--much less a bruiser who dominates from his size/speed/strength and doesn't do much in the passing game--because of his being a fan favorite and face of the franchise

And for his development the scheme probably did play a role--but more so in getting out of Gase and Miami IMO. The Titans scheme is friendly for QBs in that a lot of boxes are stacked for Henry (to help play action) but at the same time the skill position talent really isn't that good compared to the league as a whole

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, mocha4313 said:

I don't see Jimmy G as that disadvantaged by his system. He has better weapons than Tanny does: AJB>>Deebo, Kittle>>>>>>>>>>>Corey Davis (still a believer but needs to get out of Tennessee to a team that throws more into tighter windows)+everything else the Titans have--the real issue from a fantasy perspective with him is the lack of volume. Which to me is a reflection of the trust Shanahan has in him considering he let Matt Ryan air it out all the way to an MVP season despite having two really talented RBs (Freeman and Coleman back when they were good)

And then of course my memory of Garoppolo comes in big part from one game

Back to Tanny though: The Titans strike me as a smart organization with Patriots connections: I really have a hard time seeing them giving a big, long contract to any RB--much less a bruiser who dominates from his size/speed/strength and doesn't do much in the passing game--because of his being a fan favorite and face of the franchise

And for his development the scheme probably did play a role--but more so in getting out of Gase and Miami IMO. The Titans scheme is friendly for QBs in that a lot of boxes are stacked for Henry (to help play action) but at the same time the skill position talent really isn't that good compared to the league as a whole

I assume the “greater-than sign” usage refers to talent rather than projected usage.  I think Kyle has matured a bit since his Atlanta days, and has landed on a system that limits airing it out in favor of placing defenses - and individual defenders - in conflict.  So long as that keeps working, I expect it to continue.

We will see with the Titans and Henry - but I still strongly feel that J-Rob (of Pats fame) will end up rewarding Henry with a LTD.  Not an insider here, just an instinctual sense consonant with what he has said all along - in a normal off-season, I’d assume it would already have been consummated.

Couldn’t agree more about the incompetence of Gase.

Edited by BMcP
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The QB that made Derrick Henry relevant.  

Turns out Tanny is actually a really damn good QB.  Made everyone on that tram around him instantly better too. 

love the “regression” critics or people thinking cause they pound the rock he wont put up numbers...keeping him super ******** cheap.  Getting him in the end of drafts as my QB2 in a superflex and feel great about the value.

 

sure he could bust but the value is great and the upside is well worth it (in 2QB leagues especially) 

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I'm so shocked that everyone is sleeping on this guy. He was an elite qb after he took over in week 6. I'm going to look week 1 as a continuation of last season. I'll start him with confidence until he stinks 

 

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