DerrickHenrysCleats

Will Fuller 2020 Outlook

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3 hours ago, EWV1 said:

I am debating keeping him for $8 over a $14 Golladay just for the extra $6 and because he could outscore KG. High on both.

 

I advise you take Kenny here.  Don't get too cute, Golladay for $14 is a great keeper.

 

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Posted (edited)

  

17 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

I mean, of course the team is going to say he will "ball out" or whatever. What else should they say?

 

 

Um, they could say he's doing well? That he's coming along? There's all sorts of things they could say other than enthusiastic praise...

Edited by Spyplane

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31 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

  

 

Um, they could say he's doing well? That he's coming along? There's all sorts of things they could say other than enthusiastic praise...

 

"Steady progress" in May, to "fully recovered" in July, to "coming along" in August? Yeah, no. What kind of teammate would Deshaun be if he said something like that?

We all know Fuller is able to produce fantasy friendly lines when he is on the field. The issue is he has sustained 6 lower body soft tissue injuries and has been healthy for only 36 of 64 games since entering the league (He left early in 6 games due to injury). Sportsinjurypredictor.com has 11 injuries noted in his injury history profile. They project him to miss 5.2 games in 2020 with a 97% chance of injury over the course of the year and 19.7% chance of injury per week.

Watson was specifically asked what Will can do if he's able to stay healthy for all 16 games.

Reporter: "With Hop gone, I'm wondering what you think Will Fuller is capable of doing in an expanded role, especially if he's able to stay healthy for all 16 games?"

Watson: "Will's gonna ball out. I mean, Will's gonna be one of the best receivers in the league. (inaudible) came back a lot stronger, a lot faster. Will's been very good, very confident in himself, and what he did over the off-season, I'm very confident in what he can do, and ummm, we all are as an organization, as a team. There's no doubt, Will can take that role and do great things with it."

That is 100% a fluff answer to give the people what they want and support his teammate. In no way does it speak to Fuller's injury risk or fantasy value. It's hype season all across the league and enthusiastic praise is what you're going to get.

 

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9 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

"Steady progress" in May, to "fully recovered" in July, to "coming along" in August? Yeah, no. What kind of teammate would Deshaun be if he said something like that?

We all know Fuller is able to produce fantasy friendly lines when he is on the field. The issue is he has sustained 6 lower body soft tissue injuries and has been healthy for only 36 of 64 games since entering the league (He left early in 6 games due to injury). Sportsinjurypredictor.com has 11 injuries noted in his injury history profile. They project him to miss 5.2 games in 2020 with a 97% chance of injury over the course of the year and 19.7% chance of injury per week.

Watson was specifically asked what Will can do if he's able to stay healthy for all 16 games.

Reporter: "With Hop gone, I'm wondering what you think Will Fuller is capable of doing in an expanded role, especially if he's able to stay healthy for all 16 games?"

Watson: "Will's gonna ball out. I mean, Will's gonna be one of the best receivers in the league. (inaudible) came back a lot stronger, a lot faster. Will's been very good, very confident in himself, and what he did over the off-season, I'm very confident in what he can do, and ummm, we all are as an organization, as a team. There's no doubt, Will can take that role and do great things with it."

That is 100% a fluff answer to give the people what they want and support his teammate. In no way does it speak to Fuller's injury risk or fantasy value. It's hype season all across the league and enthusiastic praise is what you're going to get.

 

This is the post all the Fuller truthers need to read & understand. Dude cannot stay healthy and never, ever will. Even at his current ADP, you better correctly predict his blowup weeks before he gets injured or you're going to feel pretty dumb when other guys in that range are putting up consistent weekly fantasy points. 

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6 minutes ago, FantaC! said:

 

This is the post all the Fuller truthers need to read & understand. Dude cannot stay healthy and never, ever will. Even at his current ADP, you better correctly predict his blowup weeks before he gets injured or you're going to feel pretty dumb when other guys in that range are putting up consistent weekly fantasy points. 

I'm a Fuller owner who took him as my wr3 in a PPR league.  I think that he will play at least 14 games this year and if he can produce at least mostly wr2 numbers in the games he plays, I'll be happy.  Hopefully his injury issues are mostly behind him but if they aren't, it isn't like I spent a high pick on him.

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6 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I'm a Fuller owner who took him as my wr3 in a PPR league.  I think that he will play at least 14 games this year and if he can produce at least mostly wr2 numbers in the games he plays, I'll be happy.  Hopefully his injury issues are mostly behind him but if they aren't, it isn't like I spent a high pick on him.

 

He's only played in 14 games once in his career and that was his rookie season in 2016. Since then: 10 (2017), 7 (2018), 11 (2019).

Smart money would be on him not playing anywhere near a full season, but if you didn't have to spend much on him as your WR3, I guess that's good on you.

I'll take guys in the same ADP-range like DeVante Parker or Henry Ruggs as my WR3 all day over Fuller.

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4 hours ago, FantaC! said:

I'll take guys in the same ADP-range like DeVante Parker or Henry Ruggs as my WR3 all day over Fuller.


In my opinion everyone at that range has huge questions marks. We can make arguments for why a guy is going to dominate or suck. Usually I will take whoever has the highest upside and that is probably DVP but Its almost a certainty that tua will come in and will probably cap DVP Significantly so I’d probably take a stab at Fuller being healthy over ruggs and DVP.. just me tho it’s a shot in the dark with all of them 

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Posted (edited)

This is why i been fading him for stills super late in most bestball leagues. At least stills cost nothing but a 17th or 18th rounder in bestball. If fuller gets hurt and cooks has another concussion stills cobb will be all that is left. Maybe duke johnson would start getting wr snaps? or keke coutee back from the dead? I even some stiills in season long when i buy 3 high priced rb as a dollar store guy that no one ever tries for.

Edited by isuckatdfs

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4 hours ago, FantaC! said:

 

He's only played in 14 games once in his career and that was his rookie season in 2016. Since then: 10 (2017), 7 (2018), 11 (2019).

Smart money would be on him not playing anywhere near a full season, but if you didn't have to spend much on him as your WR3, I guess that's good on you.

I'll take guys in the same ADP-range like DeVante Parker or Henry Ruggs as my WR3 all day over Fuller.

I would have taken Parker as my wr3 over Fuller but he was gone when my pick came around.

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1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

I would have taken Parker as my wr3 over Fuller but he was gone when my pick came around.

 

I'd rather have fuller. He's better then Parker and has better QB. Only issue is health, but it's easy to replace wr

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

 

I'd rather have fuller. He's better then Parker and has better QB. Only issue is health, but it's easy to replace wr

Disagree with this.  Parker is a way more complete WR.  Imo of course.

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Can someone explain to me why Fuller and Cooks are ranked so low? 
 

Look at where the passing weapons go for the other top QBs

Mahomes: Hill and Kelce

Russ: Lockett and DK

Dak: Cooper and Gallup

Lamar is kind of anomaly because of his rushing, but Andrews is highly ranked

Then there’s Watson. The consensus seems to be that he’s a top 5 QB, but nobody is interested in his weapons. Houston doesn’t even have a target hog TE. Something doesn’t add up. 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Can someone explain to me why Fuller and Cooks are ranked so low? 
 

Look at where the passing weapons go for the other top QBs

Mahomes: Hill and Kelce

Russ: Lockett and DK

Dak: Cooper and Gallup

Lamar is kind of anomaly because of his rushing, but Andrews is highly ranked

Then there’s Watson. The consensus seems to be that he’s a top 5 QB, but nobody is interested in his weapons. Houston doesn’t even have a target hog TE. Something doesn’t add up. 

I think the main reason that both are being very overlooked in drafts is because of the injuries they've had.  In Cooks' case, he has had 5 known concussions with 3 coming in the past 2 seasons alone.  Despite the concussions, he has only missed 2 games since 2015 but it's still a concern.  With Fuller it has been a variety of injuries since he entered the league.  It isn't because of their ability or situation and more because of their injury histories.

Edited by sjm76
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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Can someone explain to me why Fuller and Cooks are ranked so low? 
 

Look at where the passing weapons go for the other top QBs

Mahomes: Hill and Kelce

Russ: Lockett and DK

Dak: Cooper and Gallup

Lamar is kind of anomaly because of his rushing, but Andrews is highly ranked

Then there’s Watson. The consensus seems to be that he’s a top 5 QB, but nobody is interested in his weapons. Houston doesn’t even have a target hog TE. Something doesn’t add up. 

 

You're right, something doesn't add up.  And I think people just don't have an understanding of what that offense is going to look like, so they're not confident to predict who the big beneficiary(ies) would be so they're being "safe" with their projections.  Fuller would be the obvious candidate due to familiarity if he didn't have injury issues.  And if you throw away Cooks' last season then he's a massive bargain.

So whatever you feel like betting on: Fuller's health or Cooks' last year being an aberration.  And if you're right, then you're probably getting a big bargain and if you're wrong, you probably reached slightly.  I am probably going to bet on Cooks between the two.  I find it easier to sell to myself that he didn't just drop off at age 27, because he's been a 1000 yard receiver every other year in 3 different schemes.  Despite the concussions he's never missed a ton of time.  Fuller is intriguing too though.  For guys going in round 7-8 it's a high upside bet either way that probably won't sink your team if it doesn't work out.

Edited by Illusion_J
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17 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I think the main reason that both are being very overlooked in drafts is because of the injuries they've had.  In Cooks' case, he has had 5 known concussions with 3 coming in the past 2 seasons alone.  Despite the concussions, he has only missed 2 games since 2015 but it's still a concern.  With Fuller it has been a variety of injuries since he entered the league.  It isn't because of their ability or situation and more because of their injury histories.

Then why not downgrade Watson because his weapons are high injury risks? Why not upgrade Stills and Cobb to something other than waiver wire picks? 

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One of the 2 have to hit. I feel like they will have a regressed defense, and they have freaking Deshaun Watson. An amazing QB on a pass happy team that’s got over 150 vacated targets, I honestly don’t think it’s a bad idea to draft both back to back if you are able.

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37 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Then why not downgrade Watson because his weapons are high injury risks? Why not upgrade Stills and Cobb to something other than waiver wire picks? 

I think that Watson hasn't been downgraded because he's an elite qb and is clearly above/better than the qb's in the next tier below him.  

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1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

I think that Watson hasn't been downgraded because he's an elite qb and is clearly above/better than the qb's in the next tier below him.  

Based on ADP, you could say that injury risk is taken into account for Cooks/Fuller. The fantasy community is essentially guessing that both players will miss multiple games. 
 

If we were as certain that Lockett and DK would miss multiple games, would we still be taking Russ that high? I don’t think we would. 
 

One of two things is true here

1. Watson is being overvalued. He will likely lose his #1 and #2 weapons at some point based on injury history. It will be really tough to be a top 5 QB with Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills as featured offensive weapons. 
 

2. Fuller and Cooks are being undervalued. Watson is a beast, and a 16 game season from either WR is going to produce top 20 results. If one of them plays 16 and the other 8-14; that dude who stays healthy has top 10 upside. 

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3 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

One of two things is true here

1. Watson is being overvalued. He will likely lose his #1 and #2 weapons at some point based on injury history. It will be really tough to be a top 5 QB with Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills as featured offensive weapons. 
 

2. Fuller and Cooks are being undervalued. Watson is a beast, and a 16 game season from either WR is going to produce top 20 results. If one of them plays 16 and the other 8-14; that dude who stays healthy has top 10 upside.

3. Watson is Schrödinger's QB. He is both overvalued and a beast, and we won't know until the atom decays and we open the box.

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I have targeted Fuller aggressively and often this year. If (!) he stays healthy he will absolutely smash ADP. There's only a few guys in the league you can say that for. He is a high-variance WR3 but the upside is immense. It's a perfect storm for a WR:

* high draft position (1st round 2016)

* established high-quality QB

* previous demonstration of elite per-game production

* huge # of vacated targets from 2019

Risky? Baked into ADP. The only WR with his upside at that range is Hollywood Brown. I'm playing to win, I need a few breaks, but Fuller needs 3-4 plays to win a week for you.

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22 minutes ago, DeliciousGravy said:

I have targeted Fuller aggressively and often this year. If (!) he stays healthy he will absolutely smash ADP. There's only a few guys in the league you can say that for. He is a high-variance WR3 but the upside is immense. It's a perfect storm for a WR:

* high draft position (1st round 2016)

* established high-quality QB

* previous demonstration of elite per-game production

* huge # of vacated targets from 2019

Risky? Baked into ADP. The only WR with his upside at that range is Hollywood Brown. I'm playing to win, I need a few breaks, but Fuller needs 3-4 plays to win a week for you.

 

Definitely agree and you can get Cooks or stills incase he gets hurt and most likely have a wr2 every week 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, njfoses said:

League winner. Book it.

We'll see.  I've read good reports including that he improved his conditioning in the offseason and put on more muscle weight but the jury is out as to whether he can play all 16 games.  He hasn't done it yet since he entered the league.

Edited by sjm76

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1 hour ago, njfoses said:

League winner. Book it.

I bookmarked it for the "bold predictions" thread.

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