Kyler Murray 2020 Outlook

[Boudewijn 4,352]

10 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

PENCIL. 

IT. 

IN. 

👊

I don't know man. He certainly was a lot better last year than I expected, but you expect him to be better than any QB in recent history. That I just ain't buying.

[pastorofmuppets2 10,612]

3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I don't know man. He certainly was a lot better last year than I expected, but you expect him to be better than any QB in recent history. That I just ain't buying.

 

you supplied a chart showing that what i anticipate from the kid yards wise has been done 3 times in the past 10 seasons, correct?

i'm a betting man - i play the ponies religiously.  key to success at the track is betting against chalk, and finding angles that put ya on that 35-1 shot over the 9/5 chalkie. 

historically, favorites hit at a roughly 30% clip ... that leaves a whopping 70% opportunity to pounce, providing you do your homework  ... maybe you spot a trend in a horses works, or in the jock/trainer % at a certain distance ... or, just maybe, you catch wind of a barn that has just received a nice vat of juice. 

nobody ever touts the 57-1 Giacomo or Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby ... but there are folks out there who cash on them. 

so, we got a 30% hit rate on having one QB hit the marks i predicted, yet Murray is considered far from "chalk" to do it, amirite?

in this instance betting on him is the longshot ... and i'll take that plunge - money where my mouth is - book set him at 3900.5 passing and 425.5 rushing, which is a solid 675 short of what i opined earlier. 

i banged the over 'til my knuckles bled, then i wrapped 'em, and pounded it some more - (daddy needs $16,000 per year for his daughter's High School tuition)😁

unlike the track, the 30% hit rate here doesn't mean we get even money that it happens in the NFL - quite the opposite - he's more like that 57-1 shot that pays a King's ransom when he zips up the rail outta nowhere, and stuns the sport. 

275 per passing

30 per rushing

these are by no means Herculian tasks for a talented cat in that system, and with that supporting cast. 

St.Russel was bought up yesterday as not doing it in his best season, but, c'mon - he's supremely talented and prolific, but he's NEVER been let off the leash enough in RahRah Petey's system ... Darryl Bevill ain't no Kliffy, and the Seahags way of offense has never been, nor never will be under RahRah, the air raid/helter skelter pace that Murray has been afforded. 

"LOOK OUT! SHE'S COMING DOWN FAST!"

 

[Boudewijn 4,352]

13 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

you supplied a chart showing that what i anticipate from the kid yards wise has been done 3 times in the past 10 seasons, correct?

Actually that was by lowering the standards; you said 4400/500, and I searched for 4000/400 (10% less).

This is how often 4400/500 has been done, in the history of the NFL, ever, on this planet. 

[pastorofmuppets2 10,612]

4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Actually that was by lowering the standards; you said 4400/500, and I searched for 4000/400 (10% less).

This is how often 4400/500 has been done, in the history of the NFL, ever, on this planet. 

 

even better. 

we gonna set a new standard. 

i'll be here all season - the tally will be accomplished. 

275 passing per

30 rushing per

dood got this - join in, and bring the kiddies, why don'tcha!

[Deuce1042 108]

I think Kyler is gonna have an excellent year. I also think Arizona might finish last in the division again. 

[owenmills 5,326]

On 8/18/2020 at 3:01 PM, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

PENCIL. 

IT. 

IN. 

👊

Drafting him, and bookmarking this so I can come back and thank you once he hits 5,000+ total yards and 37 TDs

[MagikarpeDiem 228]

Nice game against a tough D.  The force is strong in this one.  

[collucho 762]

Simply having Nuk on the field should contribute to both Kyler's passing and rushing stats. 91 rush yards and a TD gave me a boner.

[pastorofmuppets2 10,612]

my predicted march to 5,000 total yds & 37 total TDs got off swimmingly yesterday.

 

considering all working against him: cold breaking in a new ALPHA dog with no live opponents til yesterday/on the road vs the Conference champs and their stout defense/uncertainty about the game even being played, etc - i'd say he passed the toughest test with nothing but aplomb. 

 

now, as per my call, he needs to average 312.5 total yds per game - week one, with all the negative peripherals working against him:

230 passing

91 rushing

that's a cool 321, so we ahead of the pace right from jump. 

 

btw, he was the only player to rush for 100 yds yesterday, til that mutha trukkin' facacta "Victory" formation from the spread cost him -9 yds ... also costing me my +2 pernts for 100 yds rushing, but i digress. 

 

for the other half of the equation, we need roughly 2.3 tuddies per ... we had that beat, as well, til the NOOOOOOOK strike was ruled down at the one (Coffee Cake 🎂 vulture).

 

one game in, in a very tough environment - him an Nuk made sweet music, the most catches #10 has ever had in a game ... 'nufced. 

 

and here's what's coming up:

 

vs. Washington

vs. Lions

@Panthers

@Jets

@Dallas

vs. Seahags

BYE WEEK

vs. Miami

vs. Bison

@Seahags

@Hoodies

vs. Rams

@Jints

vs. Iggles

vs. 'Niners 

@ Rams

 

Bills, Seahags (Adams looks NASTY), and perhaps the Hoodies can slow him a bit ... but nobody is gonna fully shut down this kid. 

 

[leffe186 662]

I will say, that Washington defense will be tough, although hopefully it was just that the Eagles OL is a mess.

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

Those -9 yards for the victory shotgun formation was crap.

 

No complaints about Murray, zero, zip, zilch. Just saying, I could a used those 9 rushing yards he got detracted. Who goes victory formation in the shotgun? Kliff "IDGAF" Kingsbury, that's who.

[Ryansm11 2,082]

13 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Those -9 yards for the victory shotgun formation was crap.

 

No complaints about Murray, zero, zip, zilch. Just saying, I could a used those 9 rushing yards he got detracted. Who goes victory formation in the shotgun? Kliff "IDGAF" Kingsbury, that's who.

It cost me 4 points... absolutely brutal. 

[beerfish 455]

2 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

It cost me 4 points... absolutely brutal. 

 Yep, painful to watch. Probably going to cost me the W.

Between that and the TD called back at the 1 inch line, that's -8 points.

[pastorofmuppets2 10,612]

8 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

It cost me 4 points... absolutely brutal. 

 

5 minutes ago, beerfish said:

 Yep, painful to watch. Probably going to cost me the W.

Between that and the TD called back at the 1 inch line, that's -8 points.

 

ya know, he was sitting there at an even c-note after their last drive, and i just knew it would come back to bit my a** ... because even in regular "Victory" the kneel costs 1 or 2 yds, so i knew i was doomed, lest Jimmy Gee go down and score - 'Niners had first and goal inside 'Zona's 10 in the last 40 seconds, but couldn't deliver - Jimmy GQ is as much, if not more, to blame than Kliffy or Kyler - Cards would've gotten the ball back with roughly 25 seconds and needing a FG had San Fran just handled biz 🤷‍♂️

[RunCMC 2,394]

Stud.

Lamar Jackson type leap this year.  Absolutely love Dhop on this team, gives them a whole new dynamic. 

Between his rushing & throwing, the kid is damn near bullet proof. 

Edited September 14, 2020 by RunCMC

[beerfish 455]

3 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

 

ya know, he was sitting there at an even c-note after their last drive, and i just knew it would come back to bit my a** ... because even in regular "Victory" the kneel costs 1 or 2 yds, so i knew i was doomed, lest Jimmy Gee go down and score - 'Niners had first and goal inside 'Zona's 10 in the last 40 seconds, but couldn't deliver - Jimmy GQ is as much, if not more, to blame than Kliffy or Kyler - Cards would've gotten the ball back with roughly 25 seconds and needing a FG had San Fran just handled biz 🤷‍♂️

 

Yep, no doubt, saw it coming a mile away. Was just praying for a score or the clock to run out because even -1 yard was going to lose 4 points.

Oh well, just happy to have him this year, looking forward to those rushing yards.

[MKO3090 128]

A few QBs went off yesterday. But which performance is sustainable? Kyler Murray's. This wasn't even a shootout. He didn't have insane yardage or TDs. Just a simple force quietly coming for the MVP.

[cheezor42 534]

If Kyler can put up these fantasy numbers in this matchup I have no doubt he’s a top 3 QB by EOY.

[Vendetta 528]

Were they running a lot of 4-wide? Pleasantly surprised by Nuk's target volume in game 1 - it's like he never left HOU!

 

EDIT: also, it's only one week, but I may have underestimated the leap Kyler may be making this year. I've generally drafted other QBs in his tier, generally Russ.

Edited September 14, 2020 by Vendetta

[MagikarpeDiem 228]

17 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

Stud.

Lamar Jackson type leap this year.  Absolutely love Dhop on this team, gives them a whole new dynamic. 

Between his rushing & throwing, the kid is damn near bullet proof. 

Agreed.  I love that he slides too.  Doesn’t go headfirst into tackles like Lamar and Cam do.  Bodes well for his longevity 

[leffe186 662]

7 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Were they running a lot of 4-wide? Pleasantly surprised by Nuk's target volume in game 1 - it's like he never left HOU!

 

EDIT: also, it's only one week, but I may have underestimated the leap Kyler may be making this year. I've generally drafted other QBs in his tier, generally Russ.

I hope so. That tier is basically Dak, Russ, Kyler and Deshaun. I’d have taken all of them except Deshaun, got Russ in my salary cap, but would have taken Dak or Russ first in my snake if I didn’t get beaten to it. Week one has been incredibly encouraging.

[RoseLin23 436]

23 hours ago, MagikarpeDiem said:

Agreed.  I love that he slides too.  Doesn’t go headfirst into tackles like Lamar and Cam do.  Bodes well for his longevity 

This 100%. I cringe every time I see Lamar, Dak, and Allen run because they basically finish runs like a running back.

[RoseLin23 436]

23 hours ago, MKO3090 said:

A few QBs went off yesterday. But which performance is sustainable? Kyler Murray's. This wasn't even a shootout. He didn't have insane yardage or TDs. Just a simple force quietly coming for the MVP.

This dude still isn't getting enough respect. On PTI yesterday they had a segment discussing which QB had the best week 1 performance: Rodgers, Lamar, Russ, & Minshew. Not even a mention of Kyler. Remember, Nuk was a yard away from giving Kyler 3 TD's on the day.

Edited September 15, 2020 by RoseLin23

[RoseLin23 436]

23 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

It cost me 4 points... absolutely brutal. 

4 points? How's that possible? Typical scoring is 1 point for 10 rushing yards right or am I missing something?

[beerfish 455]

2 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

4 points? How's that possible? Typical scoring is 1 point for 10 rushing yards right or am I missing something?

 

Some leagues have a bonus 3 points when you get to 100 rushing/receiving yards