DerrickHenrysCleats

Kyler Murray 2020 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

This dude still isn't getting enough respect. On PTI yesterday they had a segment discussing which QB had the best week 1 performance: Rodgers, Lamar, Russ, & Minshew. Not even a mention of Kyler. Remember, Nuk was a yard away from giving Kyler 3 TD's on the day.

Expecting Football Analysis from PTI? LOLL

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2 hours ago, RoseLin23 said:

4 points? How's that possible? Typical scoring is 1 point for 10 rushing yards right or am I missing something?

3 point bonus for 100 rushing yards. I also lost my matchup by 3.7 points. Fade me. 

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Ended up trading for him.

How do we feel about him ROS? His rushing value provides a nice floor, but he's likely going to improve as a passer, right?

Thoughts?

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5 minutes ago, rasrar said:

Ended up trading for him.

How do we feel about him ROS? His rushing value provides a nice floor, but he's likely going to improve as a passer, right?

Thoughts?

 

i haven't updated my "5,000/37" prediction in awhile, so let's kill two fer one here. 

he is currently on pace for 4,750 total yds and 44 total TDs ... took a big hit in yards last week @Carolina, so he fell behind the curve for my projection on that front. 

the TDs have remained steady ... 11 thru 4 weeks is tasty:  7 passing, 4 rushing.  we take it all week, every week 👍

 

as far as his overall play ...

i mentioned in a couple other threads that the offense seems a bit out of sync, and i'm laying it partly on Nuk, partly on spotty o-line performance. 

how can i lay blame on the best wr in the game?  easy. 

not blaming his talent, or saying he's a BUST by any stretch ... it's along the lines of this offense (Kyler) adjusting to having an ALPHA wr who demands an abundance of looks. 

the #s have been fine for Nuk, but watching Kyler lock onto him repeatedly is taking some of the grease off the wheels. 

they are adjusting to each other, still ... peppering someone with targets does not necessarily equate to rhythm or synchronicity. 

there are so many fast moving parts in this offense ... it's unlike any other in the leeg - and it's run and executed at helter skelter pace ... i am noticing that if Kyler is not comfortable on his first read, which is predominantly Nuk, he either chucks an intentional incompletion or takes off running. 

he is not going thru progressions well ... he may go two deep on his looks on some plays, but more often then not it's "FIRST READ - EITHER THROW OR RUN".

this is an offense that schemes anyone open on any given play ... but now with Nuk in town, it's relying too heavily on feeding the big dog ... and, again, it's been statistically successful, but it has sacrificed the fluid nature of Kyler's read progressions. 

i am hoping that this is by design, because if it is him not maturing with reading coverages instead, well ... that doesn't bode well at all. 

they had no preseason together to work these kinks out, so we're seeing what should've been July OTA level experiments play out here during the first four games. 

it has been sluggish and predictable the past two weeks, both games lost.  

Kliff has some tinkering to do ... the running game outside of Kyler has been straight trash - that's not helping either, and is as big a problem as establishing rapport with Nuk. 

the ground game is not being respected at all, and more defensive players dropped in coverage make for more difficult execution of this complex scheme. 

Kliff talked of a commitment to establishing Drake this week, so he is obviously cognizant of how the lack of rushing prowess is stunting the overall potential. 

i think the rough spots will be smoothed ... the hookup with Nuk will become less voluminous, but more potent - and kids like Isabella and Kirk will flourish as well. 

going forward, he certainly ranks top 6-ish ... once we get the kinks worked out he'll challenge for higher. 

this will be a very telling week - second of three straight on the road, facing a team that's had 10 days to prepare.  this is a game the Cards should easily take by a comfortable margin ... if they start clicking it could be a bloodbath ... but if these same problems bog down the offense then we are looking at some serious problems moving forward. 

i just hope they are not looking forward ro next Monday night at Dallas ... if they half a** this game in Jersey they just might find themselves 2-3. 

 

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Nice post man. The beauty is, even if they don't get the offense right the floor is legit. When the kid throws three INTs in a losing game and still gets 24pts+ then you're in a pretty sweet spot.

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Posted (edited)

this here further hammers home what i was referencing in my last post ... Nuk has an astonishing 73.5% Weighted Opportunity Rating (% of a players air yds. & targets relative to rest of team).

this facacta scheme Kliffy operates is designed to get anyone open on any particular play, whether it be Fitz, Nuk, Arnold ... the popcorn vendor, etc.

dedicating so much attention to one ALPHA cat is disrupting the flow somewhat ... they gotta iron this out ... less volume, higher quality - start spreading the love - his % in that WOPR metric is unprecedented - downright impossible to fathom on a professional tackle foosball team that runs such a high volume of plays. 

but, yeah ... this is pretty telling: (the # in parenthesis is catch % for WRs with over 15 receptions thus far, this table ranks the top 10 in that category)

 

  1. 1.DJ Chark (93.8%) - ADOT 13.88% // WOPR: 44.1%

  2. 2.Keelan Cole (90.5%) - ADOT: 6.81 // WOPR: 36.5%

  3. 3.JuJu (89.5%) - ADOT: 5.32 // WOPR: 35.83%

  4. 4.Jarvis Landry (89.5%) - ADOT: 10.21 // WOPR: 39.6%

  5. 5.Robert Woods (86.4%) - ADOT: 4.64 // WOPR: 45.28%

  6. 6.Cooper Kupp (85.2%) - ADOT: 6.04 // WOPR: 51.55%

  7. 7.Davante Adams (85.0%) - ADOT: 9.45 // WOPR: 58.55%

  8. 8.Tyler Boyd (84.8%) - ADOT: 8.97 // WOPR: 45.1%

  9. 9.DeAndre Hopkins (84.8%) - ADOT: 6.89 // WOPR: 73.55%

  10. 10.DaVante Parker (82.8%) - ADOT: 9.48 // WOPR: 49.1%

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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4 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

this here further hammers home what i was referencing in my last post ... Nuk has an astonishing 73.5% Weighted Opportunity Rating (% of a players air yds. & targets relative to rest of team).

this facacta scheme Kliffy operates is designed to get anyone open on any particular play, whether it be Fitz, Nuk, Arnold ... the popcorn vendor, etc.

dedicating so much attention to one ALPHA cat is disrupting the flow somewhat ... they gotta iron this out ... less volume, higher quality - start spreading the love - his % in that WOPR metric is unprecedented - downright impossible to fathom on a professional tackle foosball team that runs such a high volume of plays. 

but, yeah ... this is pretty telling: (the # in parenthesis is catch % for WRs with over 15 receptions thus far, this table ranks the top 10 in that category)

 

  1. 1.DJ Chark (93.8%) - ADOT 13.88% // WOPR: 44.1%

  2. 2.Keelan Cole (90.5%) - ADOT: 6.81 // WOPR: 36.5%

  3. 3.JuJu (89.5%) - ADOT: 5.32 // WOPR: 35.83%

  4. 4.Jarvis Landry (89.5%) - ADOT: 10.21 // WOPR: 39.6%

  5. 5.Robert Woods (86.4%) - ADOT: 4.64 // WOPR: 45.28%

  6. 6.Cooper Kupp (85.2%) - ADOT: 6.04 // WOPR: 51.55%

  7. 7.Davante Adams (85.0%) - ADOT: 9.45 // WOPR: 58.55%

  8. 8.Tyler Boyd (84.8%) - ADOT: 8.97 // WOPR: 45.1%

  9. 9.DeAndre Hopkins (84.8%) - ADOT: 6.89 // WOPR: 73.55%

  10. 10.DaVante Parker (82.8%) - ADOT: 9.48 // WOPR: 49.1%

 

I see you Mr. Parker 👀

 

Kyler is putting up fine stats for himself but the offense won't take off to elite levels until he starts spreading the wealth.

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8 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I see you Mr. Parker 👀

 

Kyler is putting up fine stats for himself but the offense won't take off to elite levels until he starts spreading the wealth.

 

amen to that, buddy ...

and you know i got that Nuk stack, so it's beneficial to a certain extent, but ... they're stagnating to vanilla gameplans feeding the cat, and it's easily thwarted. 

true, Nuk was a bit dinged up, but 7/41/0 is akin to Matt Asiata-esque WR #s, but without the TDs 😁

the other guys gotta step up, as well ... but when someone is commanding damn near 75% of that WOPR, well, that's just ridiculous. 

... and that ground game gotta get going - whether it be Drake or Edmonds or Benji ... or Terry Metcalf or Jim Triplett - THEY NEED TO START POPPING. 

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After the jets, who suck at football but don’t suck against fantasy QBs because who needs to throw against the Jets. His next 5 games are against bottom 10 defenses for opposing QBs in fantasy (DAL, SEAx2, MIA and BUF). Would not surprise me if he’s the QB1 after this stretch.

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On 10/8/2020 at 2:05 AM, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

i haven't updated my "5,000/37" prediction in awhile, so let's kill two fer one here. 

he is currently on pace for 4,750 total yds and 44 total TDs ... took a big hit in yards last week @Carolina, so he fell behind the curve for my projection on that front. 

the TDs have remained steady ... 11 thru 4 weeks is tasty:  7 passing, 4 rushing.  we take it all week, every week 👍

 

as far as his overall play ...

i mentioned in a couple other threads that the offense seems a bit out of sync, and i'm laying it partly on Nuk, partly on spotty o-line performance. 

how can i lay blame on the best wr in the game?  easy. 

not blaming his talent, or saying he's a BUST by any stretch ... it's along the lines of this offense (Kyler) adjusting to having an ALPHA wr who demands an abundance of looks. 

the #s have been fine for Nuk, but watching Kyler lock onto him repeatedly is taking some of the grease off the wheels. 

they are adjusting to each other, still ... peppering someone with targets does not necessarily equate to rhythm or synchronicity. 

there are so many fast moving parts in this offense ... it's unlike any other in the leeg - and it's run and executed at helter skelter pace ... i am noticing that if Kyler is not comfortable on his first read, which is predominantly Nuk, he either chucks an intentional incompletion or takes off running. 

he is not going thru progressions well ... he may go two deep on his looks on some plays, but more often then not it's "FIRST READ - EITHER THROW OR RUN".

this is an offense that schemes anyone open on any given play ... but now with Nuk in town, it's relying too heavily on feeding the big dog ... and, again, it's been statistically successful, but it has sacrificed the fluid nature of Kyler's read progressions. 

i am hoping that this is by design, because if it is him not maturing with reading coverages instead, well ... that doesn't bode well at all. 

they had no preseason together to work these kinks out, so we're seeing what should've been July OTA level experiments play out here during the first four games. 

it has been sluggish and predictable the past two weeks, both games lost.  

Kliff has some tinkering to do ... the running game outside of Kyler has been straight trash - that's not helping either, and is as big a problem as establishing rapport with Nuk. 

the ground game is not being respected at all, and more defensive players dropped in coverage make for more difficult execution of this complex scheme. 

Kliff talked of a commitment to establishing Drake this week, so he is obviously cognizant of how the lack of rushing prowess is stunting the overall potential. 

i think the rough spots will be smoothed ... the hookup with Nuk will become less voluminous, but more potent - and kids like Isabella and Kirk will flourish as well. 

going forward, he certainly ranks top 6-ish ... once we get the kinks worked out he'll challenge for higher. 

this will be a very telling week - second of three straight on the road, facing a team that's had 10 days to prepare.  this is a game the Cards should easily take by a comfortable margin ... if they start clicking it could be a bloodbath ... but if these same problems bog down the offense then we are looking at some serious problems moving forward. 

i just hope they are not looking forward ro next Monday night at Dallas ... if they half a** this game in Jersey they just might find themselves 2-3. 

 

I'm loving owning him this year.  How we tracking against your prediction?

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4 hours ago, ColoWrex said:

I'm loving owning him this year.  How we tracking against your prediction?

 

i pegged 5,000 total yds, 37 total TDs. 

through 6 games:

1,487 yds passing, 370 yds rushing = 1,857 total yds. 

10 TD passes, 6 rushing TDs = 16 total TDs. 

 

in order to hit my projections he needed to avg 313 total yds per game, 2.3 total TDs per game - he is currently averaging 309.5 & 2.66 per. 

slightly behind the yd curve, slightly ahead of the TD prediction. 

he is currently on pace for:

4,944 total yds, 42 total TDs. 

 

remaining sched:

SeaHags

bye 

Miami

Buffalo

@Seahags

@Hoodies

Rams

Jints

Iggles

SFO

@Rams

 

6 of the 10 at home, including a great stretch here where they will stay put for the next 4 weeks, including their bye ... no travel for 4 straight weeks - this coming on the heels of the past 3 on the road. 

seeing Kirk & Drake step up is incredibly encouraging ... yeah, last 2 opponents may be the worst defenses in the leeg, but they did what they needed to. 

offense still needs work, but it is looking smoother - this upcoming month at home is gonna do wonders for that aspect. 

caveat on the upcoming game vs the SeaHags - they are on pace for an historically inept season defending the pass - but rahrahPetey will have had two weeks to plan and prep for this game, and a division one at that ... i knock that hippie bastid a TON, but give him all this time for a divisional opponent and he'll surprise - he's a great coach. 'nufced. 

one thing is certain, the Cards D is gonna look a whole hell of a lot diffefent vs St.Russell than they did against Flacco/Dalton ... in other words, it's gonna be pedal to the metal for the full 60 - biggest game of the Kyler/Kliff era, by far. 

 

tl;dr:

ON PACE FOR 5,000/37!

 

 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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On 10/9/2020 at 11:30 PM, Ddam2013 said:

After the jets, who suck at football but don’t suck against fantasy QBs because who needs to throw against the Jets. His next 5 games are against bottom 10 defenses for opposing QBs in fantasy (DAL, SEAx2, MIA and BUF). Would not surprise me if he’s the QB1 after this stretch.

Russ and Kyler are my QBs. I'd go for Wilson both times for the SEA vs. ARI matchups because it's a division rivalry and the Seahawks have a better D compared to the Cardinals D.

I do agree that his floor right now is 20pts, even with a 3 INT game. 

 

Not surprised that he's this year's Lamar Jackson breakout. Exactly why I drafted him in the 4th round (at the cost of not getting a solid RB like Melvin Gordon, still worth it though)

Edited by fachowski

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Curious as to where you guys drafted Murray. I had him last year and thought he had a lot of potential to be this year's Lamar. I "reached" for him at the bottom of the 6th round in a 12 team league. I was lucky he was still on the board (5th QB taken). I'm so lucky nobody else scooped him up. Last year my league-mates laughed when I picked him and did so again this year.

I love that his "floor" is looking like 20 points. I banked on his rushing yards/TD's increasing significantly this year and boy was I right. I love watching this kid play. Was able to convince my girlfriend to stay at her place last night so I could toke up, order a pizza, and watch this kid do his thing. I had a good night :)

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Kyler at his ADP was just one of the clearest calls to return value and then some this year to me.

I'm one of those guys who usually waits forever on QBs but there has been a noticeable shift in QB rushing production and incredibly safe and elevated floor. It might oversimplify things to say he was an easy pick to be this year's Lamar Jackson but he doesn't need to be an elite real life QB to put up massive fantasy numbers. He probably won’t get to Lamar's heights from last year but his play pretty much cements that high volume running QBs are some of the biggest difference makers you can find in fantasy nowadays. He is well on his way to becoming an elite real life player as well.

Edited by Benjamin1984
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On 10/20/2020 at 10:51 AM, RoseLin23 said:

Curious as to where you guys drafted Murray. I had him last year and thought he had a lot of potential to be this year's Lamar. I "reached" for him at the bottom of the 6th round in a 12 team league. I was lucky he was still on the board (5th QB taken). I'm so lucky nobody else scooped him up. Last year my league-mates laughed when I picked him and did so again this year.

I think I was mostly tapping him in the 5th and 6th rounds. I probably reached up into the 4th a little and got him in my auctions. I'm in a LOT of leagues this year and I way way over invested in him lol. You can find QBs though so I figured if he busted it's not a big deal. He wasn't going to because of the rushing though. It's been great so far. I'm a huge fan just like you are.

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i predicted 5,000 total yds, 37 total TDs.

through 7 weeks:

1,847 passing

437 rushing

= 2,284 total yds

 

13 TD passes

7 TD runs

= 20 total TDs 

 

he is averaging 326 yds total offense per, and 2.85 TDs. 

he is on pace for 5,216 total yds and 45 total TDs.

 

most important, tho, was bagging the W over that hippie rahrahPetey and St.Russel.  

had they lost after the ridiculous FG botch in OT, it might have taken the wheels totally off this wagon ... you can't have the division bully on the ropes and let 'em up ... but Kliffy somehow found a way. 

had the smirking MVP front-runner pulled this one out it would've been a cataclysmic dagger to this team's 2020 prospects, especially with having two full weeks to have it fester and marinate over the bye. 

... but they got the 11th hr reprieve, and cashed that mutha IN!   biggest franchise win since the NFCCG some 12 years ago, and undoubtedly the finest hour of the Kyler/Kliff era - momumental comeback from 10 down in the 4th qtr. 

 

tl;dr

ON PACE FOR 5,200/45

🥌

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On 10/20/2020 at 6:51 PM, RoseLin23 said:

Curious as to where you guys drafted Murray. I had him last year and thought he had a lot of potential to be this year's Lamar. I "reached" for him at the bottom of the 6th round in a 12 team league. I was lucky he was still on the board (5th QB taken). I'm so lucky nobody else scooped him up. Last year my league-mates laughed when I picked him and did so again this year.

I love that his "floor" is looking like 20 points. I banked on his rushing yards/TD's increasing significantly this year and boy was I right. I love watching this kid play. Was able to convince my girlfriend to stay at her place last night so I could toke up, order a pizza, and watch this kid do his thing. I had a good night :)

 

I drafted him in the 7th round in a 10 man league. 5th QB taken. Jackson went in 2nd, Mahomes in 3rd, Dak in 4th, Watson in 6th. 

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I love this slippery little f***er. It's like having the cardinals qb and best rb all in one position. Even if he's having a bad game the rushing cancels it out, giving him an extremely high floor. And if both are clicking, you get this freakshow game as a result. He will be on a lot of championship teams this year for sure. 

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Better f***in believe this man is neck and neck with Russ in the MVP race after last night.

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7 hours ago, Benjamin1984 said:

Kyler at his ADP was just one of the clearest calls to return value and then some this year to me.

I'm one of those guys who usually waits forever on QBs but there has been a noticeable shift in QB rushing production and incredibly safe and elevated floor. It might oversimplify things to say he was an easy pick to be this year's Lamar Jackson but he doesn't need to be an elite real life QB to put up massive fantasy numbers. He probably won’t get to Lamar's heights from last year but his play pretty much cements that high volume running QBs are some of the biggest difference makers you can find in fantasy nowadays. He is well on his way to becoming an elite real life player as well.

 

This and only this. While i saw guys in my league take mahones and Lamar in the 2nd I got Murray in the 5th. Reaching early for QBs is almost NEVER worth it to me. Dak and Wilson also went in the 5th and 6th rounds. League winning talent here. He's saved several of my weeks from injuries and bye weeks 

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