Mike Evans 2020 Outlook

[Sternes 5,008]

8 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

I'm not sure why everyone is so surprised by Evan's usage in a Brady led offense. At this point of Brady's career especially, he would prefer funneling the offense through the middle of the field churning yardage rather than outside the numbers (where Evans typically operates). For fantasy purposes, IMO Evans is better suited with a QB who is going to chuck the ball downfield in lower percentage throws rather than the high percentage shorter, middle of the field throws.

Same opinion I had going into the season and nothing has changed it. Evans is going to have some blowup games and get TDs but he is definitely not the type of WR that Brady (at this point in his career) is going to give 10-12 targets to every game.

Godwin and Godwin are more in line with the type of WR Brady will thrive with so look for AB to become his first read often when on the field.

 

You didn't watch the game then.  Guess who was getting deep down the sideline throws?  Miller.  Mickens was getting deep stuff as well.  Evans was doing curls, drags, and outs and not getting the ball. He was also still doing his deep routes which Brady missed a few times on.

People act like Brady is just throwing short dumpoffs ala NE and Edelman+White. That is not the case. If you saw the game you saw him force it into double coverage numerous times to some of the worst guys on the roster at WR and TE.  He underthrew or overthrew Evans a couple of times. At the end of the night, not matter if you think he is good or bad, there is no one on Earth who is thinking Mickens should get more targets than Evans.  Why Brady doesn't feed him is beyond me. This is all on Brady.  Bradberry wasn't even close to shutting down Evans.  Hell, he didn't even shadow Evans specifically the entire game.

It isn't health at this point. It isn't the coverage.  It is the QB and coach unwilling to give him the ball.  Nothing I despise more than a guy playing the good soldier role and saying the right things and not complaining, and then not be rewarded for it.  If he was crying and freaking out he would probably get the ball.  The sad part is that behavior gets rewarded and Evan's seemingly doesn't.

Mickens has 13 receptions on 21 targets for his career.  He had 5 receptions on 8 targets last night.  Dude has been in the league four years now.  That is just mindblowingly stupid.  He wasn't a mismatch.  He didn't have some special skillset.  He wasn't open in the flats all night to feed, or ignored for the deep ball.  Jaydon Mickens is the JAGGIEST JAG OF JAGS SINCE JAGS WERE INVENTED.

 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Sternes

[LongBalls 1,193]

Yes Evans obviously hit on Brady's wife or kicked his dog or something. He does not look his way unless forced. 

[Pooskay 806]

Mike Evans gets doubled.

 

These other scrub WR's DO NOT GET DOUBLED.

[Sternes 5,008]

14 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

Mike Evans gets doubled.

 

These other scrub WR's DO NOT GET DOUBLED.

 

This. Is. Not. True. You. Did. Not. Watch. The. Game.

[BMcP 8,153]

8 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

This. Is. Not. True. You. Did. Not. Watch. The. Game.

Sternes, I dislike being the bearer of bad tidings, but:

Mike Evans in four games without Chris Godwin this year:

7/104/1

7/122/1

5/41/1

5/55/1

(34 targets) * 20.1 fantasy points per game

Four games with Godwin:

1/2/1

2/2/2

1/10

2/37

(12 targets) * 7.3 FPG

 

[Ryansm11 2,083]

He was open constantly last night, Brady really didn’t look his way much. 

[Fantasy Gooroo 1,434]

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Fantasy Gooroo

[DezedandConfused 2,598]

8 hours ago, BMcP said:

Sternes, I dislike being the bearer of bad tidings, but:

Mike Evans in four games without Chris Godwin this year:

7/104/1

7/122/1

5/41/1

5/55/1

(34 targets) * 20.1 fantasy points per game

Four games with Godwin:

1/2/1

2/2/2

1/10

2/37

(12 targets) * 7.3 FPG

 

Yeah I've been saying this, it's about to get worse with AB.

[Pooskay 806]

Evans will finish with the most TD's on this team.

 

Brady likes big targets in the end zone (Gronk, Evans). 

 

Evans will obviously see a dent with his yardage, but Brown and Godwin will open up the field for Evans. I think he'll be a WR2 with WR1 weeks here and there.

[Sternes 5,008]

17 hours ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

 

 

.....and Evans murdered him.

1)  Evans gets past the initial contact and gets open for a catch.

2) Evans burns him bad. Brady underthrows Evans.  Even the announcers say, "Well Bradberry was lucky it wasn't a 'go route' there."

3)  Evans drives him off the route and is open, but the coverage underneath prevents a throw. 

4) Evans gets an easy catch with yards of separation.  Surprising it went for 20 because it was so easy.

5) 2 pt conversion that Evans is open and Brady throws but not on same page as far as timing.  Evans even does the little chest tap "my bad" motion to Brady. Bradberry isn't even a factor on the play.

6) Tries and fails to jam Evans early and Evans makes a nice grab for a TD.

7) Evans battles through the coverage and draws an easy PI call.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Sternes

[Fantasy Gooroo 1,434]

3 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

.....and Evans murdered him.

1)  Evans gets past the initial contact and gets open for a catch.

2) Evans burns him bad. Brady underthrows Evans.  Even the announcers say, "Well Bradberry was lucky it wasn't a 'go route' there."

3)  Evans drives him off the route and is open, but the coverage underneath prevents a throw. 

4) Evans gets an easy catch with yards of separation.  Surprising it went for 20 because it was so easy.

5) 2 pt conversion that Evans is open and Brady throws but not on same page as far as timing.  Evans even does the little chest tap "my bad" motion to Brady. Bradberry isn't even a factor on the play.

6) Tries and fails to jam Evans early and Evans makes a nice grab for a TD.

7) Evans battles through the coverage and draws an easy PI call.

You couldn't just take the easy way out and say "he sucked" like everyone else could you....

[BMcP 8,153]

Evans is notorious for his inability to separate - nothing has changed, really, in that regard this season.

[kyoun1e 1,050]

"Experts" still have Evans universally ranked fairly high this week against NO.

This is despite the fact that AB will play AND he will face Lattimore who he's busted against before. (Although, I found Evans performance against Bradberry promising).

Fear a 3-18-0 coming, but I'm finding it hard to sit him.

[Mr Rourke 245]

33 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

"Experts" still have Evans universally ranked fairly high this week against NO.

This is despite the fact that AB will play AND he will face Lattimore who he's busted against before. (Although, I found Evans performance against Bradberry promising).

Fear a 3-18-0 coming, but I'm finding it hard to sit him.

This is a very real fear.  I've owned him since he was drafted and my confidence in him is at an all time low this season.  Brady WILL go out of his way to get AB the ball. 

[kyoun1e 1,050]

2 hours ago, Mr Rourke said:

This is a very real fear.  I've owned him since he was drafted and my confidence in him is at an all time low this season.  Brady WILL go out of his way to get AB the ball. 

 

Funny thing. I have AB as well (although that's not so funny). I think I may wait until this game and then slug one of them in especially if Godwin is out.

[Panthor 813]

1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Funny thing. I have AB as well (although that's not so funny). I think I may wait until this game and then slug one of them in especially if Godwin is out.

 

i'm starting AB this week if Godwin is out.  AB runs the routes Brady likes to throw to, and without Godwin on the field, Brady is going to be tunnel vision on the only WR on the field he is truly comfortable with. 

[kyoun1e 1,050]

1 minute ago, Panthor said:

 

i'm starting AB this week if Godwin is out.  AB runs the routes Brady likes to throw to, and without Godwin on the field, Brady is going to be tunnel vision on the only WR on the field he is truly comfortable with. 

 

Think there is a good chance Godwin plays though. Think he practiced yesterday although not quite sure what that means (or if he was actually catching balls).

[Panthor 813]

3 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Think there is a good chance Godwin plays though. Think he practiced yesterday although not quite sure what that means (or if he was actually catching balls).

 

he isn't catching balls according to a report.  in any case, if Godwin is playing it makes Evans even less appealing

[Mr Rourke 245]

16 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

i'm starting AB this week if Godwin is out.  AB runs the routes Brady likes to throw to, and without Godwin on the field, Brady is going to be tunnel vision on the only WR on the field he is truly comfortable with. 

You know hes almost guaranteed a TD

[Big Nate 1,397]

7 hours ago, BMcP said:

Evans is notorious for his inability to separate - nothing has changed, really, in that regard this season.

In the video posted above he got past and separated from Bradburry a few times so I don't fully agree with this statement. Having said that he is a 6'5" monster who is physical and will beast defenders. He's not a 5'10" burner that lives off speed or a Diggs type player with near perfect routes.  But he is a guy who is a RZ monster and could hit 15 TDs this year. He's shown he can produce multiple years of 1000+ yards and 8-12 TDs per year. He is a deep threat and smaller DBs struggle covering him. He often gets the double team coverage which says a lot.

Now onto his production - with Brady this year his yards are down but his TDs are up. I don't see why the TDs should slow down either. This team is scoring and will have tons of opportunities in the RZ. There is a worry about lack of touches between the 20s though with so many mouths to feed. 

The question we need to ask is, how will Brown impact Evans this year. There may be a very nice buy low window after this week if he has a quiet one with Lattimore shadowing him. I'm looking to possibly buy in the leagues where I don't own him. I believe he is a top 5 talent at WR in the league that can have monster weeks.  If the TDs continue he might be able to survive with a not too bad floor. Like everyone else we are trying to sort out his value and what it will look like going forward.

In a bubble, talent wise there are very few I would pick over him.  Metcalf somehow evolved out of Evans I'm sure of it lol.

[BMcP 8,153]

Right - I just meant creating separation has never been how he makes his living, but I think you summed that up well (2.8 avg.this season).

[kyoun1e 1,050]

Between the Lattimore matchup where the historical performance data is unequivocally bad for Evans and now Godwin and AB back I'm leaning towards benching Evans.

This may be the clincher: Weather. 

Gusty winds not so good for anything deep for Evans. Could be check down city for AB and Godwin. May actually start AB over Evans.

: NOS @ TBB - 

Looking like around 20mph sustained winds in TB, with gusts around 30. Deeper passes and long FG's could be a bit of an issue. Showers are also possible, but like Jax I don't expect the rain to be particularly heavy or long-lived (if they see any at all).

https://rotogrinders.com/weather/nfl

[sSektor 2,213]

I'm also leaning towards benching him after the Godwin update. Still a very good chance of getting some quality redzone looks but I'm not willing to bank my week on it.

[LongBalls 1,193]

He's got as good a chance at a TD as anyone else. All of the TB receiving options are a roll of the dice in this game.

[collucho 762]

I'd say this is a positive development.