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Ronald Jones 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, sSektor said:

 

Yes, because it was essentially his rookie season on an Arians coached team. Sound kinda familiar?

I'm sure you know this, but I do feel it's relevant _why_ it was his do-over rookie season: because he had such a poor attitude the first season.

It's also good to remember that some people weren't convinced he'd be that great in the first place.

And then even in 2019 he was benched again for missing assignments.

Note: I own neither RoJo nor Vaughn, and I have not made up my mind on either. But to me it seems Jones is not set as #1 and Vaughn could make some impact. If even Barber could, why not?

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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm sure you know this, but I do feel it's relevant _why_ it was his do-over rookie season: because he had such a poor attitude the first season.

It's also good to remember that some people weren't convinced he'd be that great in the first place.

And then even in 2019 he was benched again for missing assignments.

Note: I own neither RoJo nor Vaughn, and I have not made up my mind on either. But to me it seems Jones is not set as #1 and Vaughn could make some impact. If even Barber could, why not?

 

Yea I don't see how it is not absolutely clear to people that the Bucs drafted Vaughn for a reason. He is going to soak up Barber's touches but will see significantly more work in the passing game. I think people like his upside because Jones has already had so many issues during his time in Tampa and it is clear there is a path for Vaughn to become the majority leader of the backfield. It's silly to dismiss either player as they will both have significant roles. Like I said, if you play in a PPR league target Vaughn, if you play in standard target RoJo, it's pretty simple. 

 

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yea I don't see how it is not absolutely clear to people that the Bucs drafted Vaughn for a reason. He is going to soak up Barber's touches but will see significantly more work in the passing game. I think people like his upside because Jones has already had so many issues during his time in Tampa and it is clear there is a path for Vaughn to become the majority leader of the backfield. It's silly to dismiss either player as they will both have significant roles. Like I said, if you play in a PPR league target Vaughn, if you play in standard target RoJo, it's pretty simple. 

 

IMO this is the way to go, all my leagues are PPR so I can pretty much ignore RoJo unless he does a free fall

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yea I don't see how it is not absolutely clear to people that the Bucs drafted Vaughn for a reason. He is going to soak up Barber's touches but will see significantly more work in the passing game. I think people like his upside because Jones has already had so many issues during his time in Tampa and it is clear there is a path for Vaughn to become the majority leader of the backfield. It's silly to dismiss either player as they will both have significant roles. Like I said, if you play in a PPR league target Vaughn, if you play in standard target RoJo, it's pretty simple. 

 

I think the main point of disagreement / confirmation bias is if you think RoJo cannot improve at all. If that’s the case then sure Vaughn has upside to take over all 3 downs as a raw rookie with a 43 year old QB on his team. 
 

I look at his age (Uber young entering the league) increased muscle, marked improvement last year, and what appears to be a good work ethic.

 

Are these things people straight ignore when projecting this backfield or just disregard because the bucs drafted a day two back when they had zero depth behind Jones?
 

 

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yea I don't see how it is not absolutely clear to people that the Bucs drafted Vaughn for a reason. He is going to soak up Barber's touches but will see significantly more work in the passing game. I think people like his upside because Jones has already had so many issues during his time in Tampa and it is clear there is a path for Vaughn to become the majority leader of the backfield. It's silly to dismiss either player as they will both have significant roles. Like I said, if you play in a PPR league target Vaughn, if you play in standard target RoJo, it's pretty simple. 

 

I think in leagues that reward rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, Vaughn is the pick.  For leagues that award benchings, blown assignments, getting screamed at by your quarterback, running the wrong route, and missing a blitzer, Ronald Jones should be a 1st round pick.

 

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34 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Are these things people straight ignore when projecting this backfield or just disregard because the bucs drafted a day two back when they had zero depth behind Jones?


I'm willing to ignore everything for the NEXT KAMARA

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Magoo said:

I think the main point of disagreement / confirmation bias is if you think RoJo cannot improve at all. If that’s the case then sure Vaughn has upside to take over all 3 downs as a raw rookie with a 43 year old QB on his team. 
 

I look at his age (Uber young entering the league) increased muscle, marked improvement last year, and what appears to be a good work ethic.

 

Are these things people straight ignore when projecting this backfield or just disregard because the bucs drafted a day two back when they had zero depth behind Jones?
 

 

If these are things that anyone is straight ignoring, I have to consider that a pretty serious mistake.  Pretending that any rookie back is not going to promptly head to the sidelines in an Arians/Brady offense for missing even so much as a single blocking assignment - no matter how well they might have blocked in college - would be naïve.

Edited by BMcP
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Folks interested in projecting Vaughn’s rookie-year role might want to read the following article -  note particularly the following re: Vaughn’s pass-pro skills:

So Vaughn isn’t a game-changer, but he should be mildly helpful to an offense that simply needs adequate pass game help from the running back position. If Vaughn can improve his pass protection – he surrendered 17 pressures on 229 pass-blocking snaps in college per Pro Football Focus’ draft guide – then he could definitely win those third down snaps over Jones and Dare Ogunbowale.”

https://www.pewterreport.com/vaughn-doesnt-fix-bucs-running-game-and-thats-okay/

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17 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Folks interested in projecting Vaughn’s rookie-year role might want to read the following article -  note particularly the following re: Vaughn’s pass-pro skills:

So Vaughn isn’t a game-changer, but he should be mildly helpful to an offense that simply needs adequate pass game help from the running back position. If Vaughn can improve his pass protection – he surrendered 17 pressures on 229 pass-blocking snaps in college per Pro Football Focus’ draft guide – then he could definitely win those third down snaps over Jones and Dare Ogunbowale.”

https://www.pewterreport.com/vaughn-doesnt-fix-bucs-running-game-and-thats-okay/

There are about 100 articles you could find on the subject.  All with different opinions.  Who cares?

 

For example: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/fantasy/2020/04/30/bucs-keshawn-vaughn-emergent-fantasy-success

 

“Jones isn’t locked into the starting job. He hasn’t been good enough to earn that privilege. He was barely good enough at anything to step on the field as a rookie and struggled to unseat Barber last year. In 2019, Jones upped his 1.9 yards per carry to 4.2 and scored six touchdowns to go with his 724 rushing yards. He also added 31 receptions for 309 yards. While the numbers are better, vision and blocking continue to be an issue, and the coaches have shown they don’t trust him. They used him because what were the options?”

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

There are about 100 articles you could find on the subject.  All with different opinions.  Who cares?

 

For example: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/fantasy/2020/04/30/bucs-keshawn-vaughn-emergent-fantasy-success

 

“Jones isn’t locked into the starting job. He hasn’t been good enough to earn that privilege. He was barely good enough at anything to step on the field as a rookie and struggled to unseat Barber last year. In 2019, Jones upped his 1.9 yards per carry to 4.2 and scored six touchdowns to go with his 724 rushing yards. He also added 31 receptions for 309 yards. While the numbers are better, vision and blocking continue to be an issue, and the coaches have shown they don’t trust him. They used him because what were the options?”

It’s up to each individual to decide for himself what sources to rely upon when evaluating any player.  The example you cited actually seems pretty balanced - I don’t see much I disagree with, including the notion that Vaughn could step into an every-down role by 2021:

”While he’s better than Jones and there is a lot to love about how he plays, he still isn't an elite prospect. Despite possessing decent straight-line speed, Vaughn is not a playmaker. If he gets in space or gets behind the defense, he can take it to the house. 

Nonetheless, he isn’t great at making that space on his own. His acceleration is average at best, and his agility is lacking. He’s a one move and smash running back and isn't great rushing outside and turning the corner. While he can break tackles, he doesn’t make a lot of people miss. Don’t expect many 20-plus yard runs, but you can anticipate a guy that can handle a lot of touches and will fall forward for extra yards almost every time you put the ball in his hand. Plus, he could add plenty of PPR value. Catches and touchdowns aren’t a bad combination to have in a fantasy back.”

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2 hours ago, sSektor said:


I'm willing to ignore everything for the NEXT KAMARA

There's only one next Kamara and his name is DeeJay Dallas

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33 minutes ago, BMcP said:

It’s up to each individual to decide for himself what sources to rely upon when evaluating any player.

And you chose PewterReport?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

And you chose PewterReport?

Not quite sure what you’re implying - is it that they have a worse bead on what to think about Tampa Bay players than a Y! author?  Or is it the notion that breaking down a player’s tape in more detail, while providing clips in support of their views, is frowned upon?

Edited by BMcP

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9 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Not quite sure what you’re implying - is it that they have a worse bead on what to think about Tampa Bay players than a Y! author?  Or is it the notion that breaking down a player’s tape in more detail, while providing clips in support of their views, is frowned upon?

They’re journalists and beat writers, NOT film evaluators or NFL scouts

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11 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

They’re journalists and beat writers, NOT film evaluators or NFL scouts

Jon Ledyard is a well respected writer and NFL draft talent evaluator for years.  I mean, if you have access to actual reports from currently employed NFL scouts, I’d be happy if you’d share them.

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5 hours ago, sSektor said:


I'm willing to ignore everything for the NEXT KAMARA

If I hear one more person say someone is the next Kamara then I’m going to do absolutely nothing 

Stupid comparisons mean nothing.

seriously though Kamara is a balance freak. Without peer.

Having said that, RoJo is the second coming of Michael Bennett 

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29 minutes ago, Magoo said:

If I hear one more person say someone is the next Kamara then I’m going to do absolutely nothing 

Stupid comparisons mean nothing.

seriously though Kamara is a balance freak. Without peer.

Having said that, RoJo is the second coming of Michael Bennett 

But not Edgar Bennett...

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Posted (edited)

Guy is being criminally underrated going into 2020. Arians, Licht, and Brady have all praised him this offseason already. His only competition is a 3rd round rookie that had a 4th-5th round grade, and Dare, who is the epitome of a JAG. It's well documented that Arians eases rookies in, DJ had 35 total carries before taking over in week 12 due to injury in his rookie year in ARI, and I think this limited offseason exacerbates that even more.  

 

He absolutely jumps off the tape in my opinion. People that say he's a JAG are simply not watching. This run below is just about as good as it gets. Patience, burst, vision, cutback ability, and power to keep the run going an additional 15 yards. Sikkema points out that penalties called back lots of Rojo's runs, which is no farce, the guy had 230 rushing yards called back due to penalty, which is crazy. 

 

This Youtube video also gives a solid breakdown of a lot of his touches from last year: 

 

 

Another factor that I love is that TB will be running a ton of two-TE personnel with the addition of Gronk/lack of a clear 3rd WR. Gronk and OJ Howard are both renowned for their run blocking, and Godwin/Evans on the outside still require a ton of attention. 

 

He's a much better pass catcher than given credit for. In 2019 he had 31 rec on 40 targets. He wasn't just catching these and falling to the turf, he was crazy efficient and turned those catches into 7.7 yards per target, good for the 5th best yards per target for NFL RBs (behind Ekeler, Dalvin, Sanders, DJ). The only downside that has some legs is his pass pro, but I'm not willing to believe that this rookie will come in with limited offseason reps and become some stud pass protector that gains Brady's trust. All reports are saying he's working on it and I'm sure he will improve a bit, but even if he's coming off the field for obvious passing situations or when the team is in catch-up mode, he's still a steal. Plenty of RB's going far higher than him are coming off the field for pass downs.

 

The stars are all aligning as far as I'm concerned. He's ECR 98 and RB38 in .5 PPR on Fantasypros, right behind Lindsay/Breida/Vaughn (lol)/James White. He's got so much more upside than all of those guys, and I will be targeting him as early as the 7/8 round turn.

Edited by Olliemets
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I drafted him way too early a couple of years ago.   But last year, he had some explosive moments.   He's also very young.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's the next Alvin Kamara.

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17 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I drafted him way too early a couple of years ago.   But last year, he had some explosive moments.   He's also very young.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's the next Alvin Kamara.

Yep, didn't even note that he is YOUNGER than Vaughn, despite having 2 NFL years under his belt. 

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9 hours ago, K197040 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if he's the next Alvin Kamara.

Aside from the 2 years so far vs Kamara being a hit from the start, their contracts (RoJo got more signing bonus than Kamara got paid in 3 years) and their running style? And that RoJo will never get a third of his touches through the air?

Well, if you disregard all that, then yes, why not.

 

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44 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Aside from the 2 years so far vs Kamara being a hit from the start, their contracts (RoJo got more signing bonus than Kamara got paid in 3 years) and their running style? And that RoJo will never get a third of his touches through the air?

Well, if you disregard all that, then yes, why not.

 

He might not have been referring to guaranteed payouts at the outset when comparing them?

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He might not have been referring to guaranteed payouts at the outset when comparing them?

 

 

I assumed he was joking a bit and I joined in the trolling :)

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Oh ok - I’ll join in as co-troll!

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15 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Aside from the 2 years so far vs Kamara being a hit from the start, their contracts (RoJo got more signing bonus than Kamara got paid in 3 years) and their running style? And that RoJo will never get a third of his touches through the air?

Well, if you disregard all that, then yes, why not.

 

Agree totally.   They're pretty much the same player...just different circumstances.  

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