kmoore1521

Todd Gurley 2020 Outlook

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Hey better be safe with a handcuff

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5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

So you can have a below-replacement level veteran plugger if your supposed impact player taken in the third round goes down?


On this Falcons offense , with goal line work why not .

Opportunity > everything else 

I like Gurley in the 3rd-4th round + cuffing with Ito Smith with one of your final picks. 

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3 hours ago, RunCMC said:


On this Falcons offense , with goal line work why not .

Opportunity > everything else 

I like Gurley in the 3rd-4th round + cuffing with Ito Smith with one of your final picks. 

Do you like pairing him with McCaffrey as your rb #2? Has a lot of potential

 

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8 hours ago, urban2014 said:

Hey better be safe with a handcuff

source.gif

Handcuffs aren't always safe. Having a bad handcuff to an insecure player means you possibly wasted 2 spots instead of 1.

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16 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Your ONLY concern is Gurley's health?  I would say that is a pretty big concern.  The Rams insisted for years that Gurley was perfectly fine, even though it was as plain as day that he was not.  And then the Rams "inexplicably" released him.

And now the Falcons have signed him but even Dimitroff himself has stated that the team does not know how healthy he is.  But your only concern is his health.  That's like saying the only concern with jumping off a cliff is the abrupt stop at the end of a fall.

When is the earliest I would bite? 7th round and not a pick sooner.

 

If Gurley fell to the 5th round you wouldn't take a chance at his upside in the Atlanta offense?

I'm curious to know which mid-round RBs do you like this year that have the upside to be inside the top 15 RBs?  

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

If Gurley fell to the 5th round you wouldn't take a chance at his upside in the Atlanta offense?

I'm curious to know which mid-round RBs do you like this year that have the upside to be inside the top 15 RBs?  

All of them? That's generally why they're mid round (ie RB20-RB40).

Eg I see Breida/Howard each go at the end of that range, but either of them could end up being an RB1 (my money would be on Howard).

Edited by Boudewijn

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7 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

If Gurley fell to the 5th round you wouldn't take a chance at his upside in the Atlanta offense?

I'm curious to know which mid-round RBs do you like this year that have the upside to be inside the top 15 RBs?  

In the 5th round I am still building the critical nucleus of my time.  And Gurley is too much of an unknown there in my opinion.  But the 7th is my time to add players I really don't care for but are too good to let drop any further.

I can look up 5th round ADPs for RBs for you later.  But I could also be taking my WR2, a TE, or even a QB if the value is right, in the 5th.

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10 hours ago, Breesus said:

Do you like pairing him with McCaffrey as your rb #2? Has a lot of potential

 


I would love him as my RB3 , but I’m going 3 straight running backs . Unless OBJ is available then I might go RB-RB-WR. No set solution , but Ive had mock drafts of Kamara/Sanders/Gurley  Henry/Drake/Gurley . Which idiot said 7th round , wow hilarious. He won’t even be making it to the 5th round in most competitive leagues. Some of that uncertainty about his knee is baked into his ADP . Closer to August/September with team training , mini camps, pre-season, etc I see his ADP rising. Or dropping for that matter, if we receive negative news on his condition. 

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My concern with Gurley isn’t just his health, and that is a very big concern, it’s Dirk Koeter’s history of producing terrible running games. Throw in the fact that TG is a marque name, is from Georgia and played at Georgia and it worries me that they view TG as a JAG on a pass first and second offense that will be an adequate football player but a substantial box office draw. Seems like a mid RB2 to me with the arrow tilting down.

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6 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

In the 5th round I am still building the critical nucleus of my time.  And Gurley is too much of an unknown there in my opinion.  But the 7th is my time to add players I really don't care for but are too good to let drop any further.

I can look up 5th round ADPs for RBs for you later.  But I could also be taking my WR2, a TE, or even a QB if the value is right, in the 5th.

 

7th round? you are out of your mind

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5 hours ago, RunCMC said:


I would love him as my RB3 , but I’m going 3 straight running backs . Unless OBJ is available then I might go RB-RB-WR. No set solution , but Ive had mock drafts of Kamara/Sanders/Gurley  Henry/Drake/Gurley . Which idiot said 7th round , wow hilarious. He won’t even be making it to the 5th round in most competitive leagues. Some of that uncertainty about his knee is baked into his ADP . Closer to August/September with team training , mini camps, pre-season, etc I see his ADP rising. Or dropping for that matter, if we receive negative news on his condition. 

 

Yeah which is why I asked *IF* he fell to the 5th round, how could you not take him there?  

If no new news comes out between today and the day of you're draft, you'll be extremely lucky to get him in the 5th round.  Again, how could you pass on him there? 

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4 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

7th round? you are out of your mind

I said I would not take Gurley prior to the 7th round.  I don't want Gurley on my fantasy team because his knee is not right and he's a total unknown.  But, if he did fall to the 7th round, I would take him there.  He has scored quite a large amount of touchdowns.

As for ADP, I see that Deshuan Watson and Kyler Murray have 5th round ADPs.  I would much rather have those two v. Gimpy Gurley.

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6 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Yeah which is why I asked *IF* he fell to the 5th round, how could you not take him there?  

If no new news comes out between today and the day of you're draft, you'll be extremely lucky to get him in the 5th round.  Again, how could you pass on him there? 

I could and would pass on Gurley in the 5th round because I am still building the core of my team in that round, not looking for gimps that could miraculously heal up and return to their 2016 form.  Those are for the 7th round and beyond.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

In the 5th round I am still building the critical nucleus of my time.  And Gurley is too much of an unknown there in my opinion.  But the 7th is my time to add players I really don't care for but are too good to let drop any further.

I can look up 5th round ADPs for RBs for you later.  But I could also be taking my WR2, a TE, or even a QB if the value is right, in the 5th.

This just makes no sense. You got guys like K. Johnson, D. Johnson, Montgomery, and Mack going in that range. There's no such a thing as "knowns" with RBs in the 5th round.

So you say just don't draft a back. That's great and all except if you went WR/WR/RB/WR to start or any other combination where you only have 1 RB due to players dropping or whatever. Even if you have 2 RBs Gurley is a great pick in round 5. Finding a RB with a hold on the starting role and all the GL work while playing for an elite offense in round 5 is extremely rare. Even with the questions it's a great pick. This conversation is pointless though because Gurley isn't going to go anywhere near round 5. His ADP is going to settle in the 30-40 range.

Edited by Gohawks
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One more thing:

The "known" factor of RBs is always going to be a round or two behind the known factor of WRs. The only exceptions will be found inside the top 5 and some years inside the top 2-3. At the same time, the ceiling of WRs is always going to lag behind the RBs. RBs are going to be drafted with more risk due to the value of elite RBs. So yes, Gurley has less known than WRs, QBs, and TEs in that range but you can say that for any RB relative to any WR or QB at any point of the draft. It's just such a weak argument.

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19 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Yeah which is why I asked *IF* he fell to the 5th round, how could you not take him there?  

If no new news comes out between today and the day of you're draft, you'll be extremely lucky to get him in the 5th round.  Again, how could you pass on him there? 


I mean you really can’t , insane value if you get him in the 5th. Even if you hate the kid , just draft him & trade later before the season kicks off.  We all know RB’s have the highest trade value in Yahoo standard /.05 ppr leagues . Now everyone has their own opinion on cuffing RB’s , and most times it doesn't even hit. But this particular year with his knee issue , and just his health in general. It might be a good idea to grab JAGmiester Ito Smith in the last few rounds. Just to have this Atlanta backfield sowed up , with a little insurance for Gurley as well. But you never know the team could just sign a FA running back , it’s all a guessing game really. 

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And my guess is that a lot of fantasy players are going to be very disappointed with Todd Gurley in 2020.

But now that you guys have commented, I have listened and will change my view. 

I now would not draft Gurley prior to the 8th round.

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I don’t think Gurley will go past round 3 in the majority of competitive leagues

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Posted (edited)

If you can pair him with 2 good rb’s. Gurley as a flex could be amazing, even if he isn’t as efficient he should get most of the touches in an Atlanta offense  in a very high scoring division.

This time last year Gurley was coming back from hobbling the last 1/2 of the season and played until February. This year he wasn’t even in the playoffs, has another year of healing, and is going to arguably a better offense. There is a lot to like despite the high risk

Edited by Breesus
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7 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And my guess is that a lot of fantasy players are going to be very disappointed with Todd Gurley in 2020.

But now that you guys have commented, I have listened and will change my view. 

I now would not draft Gurley prior to the 8th round.

 

You're a stubborn soul aren't you?

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19 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

You're a stubborn soul aren't you?

Well I have a strong opinion about Todd Gurley.  I think his knee is not right.  Gurley barely played down the stretch in 2018 and CJ Anderson was the main playoff hero for the Rams in the playoffs.  And Gurley barely played in the Superbowl.

Then he played as part of a committee in 2019.  All the while, the Rams said his knee was fine.  Then they cut him.

His knee is not fine.  Atlanta was stupid to sign Gurley, he is damaged goods.  If there is a preseason this year, do you expect the Falcons to play Gurley in it?  I don't.  So our draft days are going to arrive and we will still have no concrete evidence to go on.

So I am not taking Gurley unless he falls to the later rounds of the draft.

Does that make me stubborn?  I would say it means I have the courage of my convictions.

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

His knee is not fine.  Atlanta was stupid to sign Gurley, he is damaged goods.  If there is a preseason this year, do you expect the Falcons to play Gurley in it?  I don't.  So our draft days are going to arrive and we will still have no concrete evidence to go on.

I read the situation exactly the same, and I would only take Gurley at extremely reduced price. If that means someone else grabs him in an early round and he turns out a league winner, good for that guy, but this is not my kind of target.

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Gurley was rb12 in standard rb14 in ppr. He put up 17.3/21.3, 17.8/20.8, and 16.8/16.8 (std/ppr) in the fantasy playoffs last year. He’s on a better offense this year and has more time off inbetween seasons this year because LAR missed the playoffs. I’ll be targeting him in every draft this year in the 3rd or early 4th

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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Well I have a strong opinion about Todd Gurley.  I think his knee is not right.  Gurley barely played down the stretch in 2018 and CJ Anderson was the main playoff hero for the Rams in the playoffs.  And Gurley barely played in the Superbowl.

Then he played as part of a committee in 2019.  All the while, the Rams said his knee was fine.  Then they cut him.

His knee is not fine.  Atlanta was stupid to sign Gurley, he is damaged goods.  If there is a preseason this year, do you expect the Falcons to play Gurley in it?  I don't.  So our draft days are going to arrive and we will still have no concrete evidence to go on.

So I am not taking Gurley unless he falls to the later rounds of the draft.

Does that make me stubborn?  I would say it means I have the courage of my convictions.

Gurley saw the field on over 70% of his snaps. From week 10 on he saw multiple games with over 95% snap count and was closer to 80%. A big problem with the Rams not running as much wasn’t Gurley but rather their awful line.

So that committee claim is just flat out BS. RBs that get that kind of snap share are not a committee in today’s NFL. There’s a select few RBs that get a better snap share than that.

Theres just a lot of myths about Gurley. Yes there’s some stuff that’s true but a lot of the claims are BS.

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