kmoore1521

Todd Gurley 2020 Outlook

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11 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Gurley saw the field on over 70% of his snaps. From week 10 on he saw multiple games with over 95% snap count and was closer to 80%. A big problem with the Rams not running as much wasn’t Gurley but rather their awful line.

Gurley saw the field on over 70% of his snaps?  I have no idea what that means.

It is good the Gurley finally became a near-full-time player after week 10, but then why did the Rams cut him?

The inference I draw is that the Rams were desperate to make the playoffs so they scrapped their committee, but then Gurley's knee did not respond well to the increased usage, so they cut him.

And this is the player you want to add to your fantasy team in round 3?

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12 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Gurley saw the field on over 70% of his snaps. From week 10 on he saw multiple games with over 95% snap count and was closer to 80%. A big problem with the Rams not running as much wasn’t Gurley but rather their awful line.

So that committee claim is just flat out BS. RBs that get that kind of snap share are not a committee in today’s NFL. There’s a select few RBs that get a better snap share than that.

Theres just a lot of myths about Gurley. Yes there’s some stuff that’s true but a lot of the claims are BS.

Snap count doesn't really matter a lot for Gurley. Against the Ravens he was in 96% of the snaps, but they gave him only 6 rushes and 3 targets (for a grand total of 19 yards).

His snap count has been pretty consistent over the past years throughout various injuries, but his production has gone down considerably.

image.png.3ee784893097dd7794825f3e69830aa2.png

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Snap count doesn't really matter a lot for Gurley. Against the Ravens he was in 96% of the snaps, but they gave him only 6 rushes and 3 targets (for a grand total of 19 yards).

His snap count has been pretty consistent over the past years throughout various injuries, but his production has gone down considerably.

image.png.3ee784893097dd7794825f3e69830aa2.png

I guess the question is, how much was the knee and how much was the trainwreck interior line, and given the latter, how much does a potential improvement going from the Rams to the Falcons matter?

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Snap count doesn't really matter a lot for Gurley. Against the Ravens he was in 96% of the snaps, but they gave him only 6 rushes and 3 targets (for a grand total of 19 yards).

His snap count has been pretty consistent over the past years throughout various injuries, but his production has gone down considerably.

image.png.3ee784893097dd7794825f3e69830aa2.png

The line was horrible. His production was going to go down.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

The line was horrible. His production was going to go down.


Agreed no one seems to mention the  O-line . His knee ailment is all everyone talks about. And outside of a 2018 outlier season ... Falcons offense > Rams . So theres definitely some positives heading into 2020 . 

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I’ve been mocking McCaffrey with CEH & Gurley.

it is the most beautiful yet terrifying lineup I’ve seen in a while lol

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49 minutes ago, Breesus said:

I’ve been mocking McCaffrey with CEH & Gurley.

it is the most beautiful yet terrifying lineup I’ve seen in a while lol


Deadly trio , now if you can snag OBJ it would be game over. But I wouldn’t mind having Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson as my WR1 . Even JuJu would be great with that stable of RB’s . Unless I’m going MT13 or Reek , I would rather wait on WR. Lots of value to be had @ 4th-6th rounds. This is in regards to standard & half ppr leagues. 

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8 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


Deadly trio , now if you can snag OBJ it would be game over. But I wouldn’t mind having Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson as my WR1 . Even JuJu would be great with that stable of RB’s . Unless I’m going MT13 or Reek , I would rather wait on WR. Lots of value to be had @ 4th-6th rounds. This is in regards to standard & half ppr leagues. 

I’ve noticed me and you think the same way lol. Completely agree

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5 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I guess the question is, how much was the knee and how much was the trainwreck interior line, and given the latter, how much does a potential improvement going from the Rams to the Falcons matter?

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RunCMC said:


Deadly trio , now if you can snag OBJ it would be game over. But I wouldn’t mind having Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson as my WR1 . Even JuJu would be great with that stable of RB’s . Unless I’m going MT13 or Reek , I would rather wait on WR. Lots of value to be had @ 4th-6th rounds. This is in regards to standard & half ppr leagues. 

OBJ is going to be in the top 25 by draft time on his name alone. Maybe even top 20. Unless you go CMC and then CEH and OBJ on the turn and hope Gurley is there at 4. In that case that’s a stupid good squad. 

Edited by Gohawks

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19 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

OBJ is going to be in the top 25 by draft time on his name alone. Maybe even top 20. Unless you go CMC and then CEH and OBJ on the turn and hope Gurley is there at 4. In that case that’s a stupid good squad. 


Well thats the plan brodie . Hoping my league mates are sleeping on Gurley. Thats why I said “IF” you can land OBJ. Rereading my post I could see the confusion. And OBJ top 25 , I could definitely see it. But not a chance in hell he cracks 20. 

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:


Deadly trio , now if you can snag OBJ it would be game over. But I wouldn’t mind having Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson as my WR1 . Even JuJu would be great with that stable of RB’s . Unless I’m going MT13 or Reek , I would rather wait on WR. Lots of value to be had @ 4th-6th rounds. This is in regards to standard & half ppr leagues. 

 

Agree completetly. In 4 ffpc best balls OBJ thus far has gone 42, 44, 39 and 45 but also other good values are in that neighbourhood like Juju, Ridley, Thielen, Woods, Lockett, Metcalf, TY Hilton etc...

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On 6/2/2020 at 2:20 AM, Boudewijn said:

I read the situation exactly the same, and I would only take Gurley at extremely reduced price. If that means someone else grabs him in an early round and he turns out a league winner, good for that guy, but this is not my kind of target.

 Because I'm afraid to contradict myself, here's an interesting video:

TL;DR: he says the main difference between 2018 and 2019 was the Rams O-line, together with the fact that the Pats showed how to defend against the Rams O during the Superbowl. It's an interesting view.

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Posted (edited)

This thread is going to be unreadable when the season starts. You already know these posts are coming:

giphy.gif

"SEE! RIGHT THERE! HE'S LIMPING"

"LOOK AT JULIO HELPING GURLEY GET BACK UP! HE CAN'T GET UP ON HIS OWN?"

Edited by Gohawks
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59 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This thread is going to be unreadable when the season starts.

You must be new here. When the season starts, ALL threads are unreadable.

q7e6k.jpg

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On 5/30/2020 at 9:47 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

Your ONLY concern is Gurley's health?  I would say that is a pretty big concern.  The Rams insisted for years that Gurley was perfectly fine, even though it was as plain as day that he was not.  And then the Rams "inexplicably" released him.

And now the Falcons have signed him but even Dimitroff himself has stated that the team does not know how healthy he is.  But your only concern is his health.  That's like saying the only concern with jumping off a cliff is the abrupt stop at the end of a fall.

When is the earliest I would bite? 7th round and not a pick sooner.

round 7 LOL cmon. 

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1 hour ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

round 7 LOL cmon. 

If you read on, I revised my take.  8th round or later.  I do not want Todd Gurley and his gimpy knee on my fantasy team, but if he falls to the 8th round, I will take him there.

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On 6/8/2020 at 1:19 AM, Boudewijn said:

 Because I'm afraid to contradict myself, here's an interesting video:

TL;DR: he says the main difference between 2018 and 2019 was the Rams O-line, together with the fact that the Pats showed how to defend against the Rams O during the Superbowl. It's an interesting view.

This guys YouTube account is great. Even non fantasy content is a great watch. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If you read on, I revised my take.  8th round or later.  I do not want Todd Gurley and his gimpy knee on my fantasy team, but if he falls to the 8th round, I will take him there.

I totally get that. I've been spurned by guys before and swear to never draft again. If you aim for Gurley in the 8th, you obviously won't have any shares, but it sounds like you're okay with that. Luckily for you, there are NUMEROUS options at RB in that third round tier that are capable of reaching within the same, if not more, fantasy points than Gurley. Names going in that range are CEH, Fournette, Gordon, DJ, Bell, Conner, and Carson. I'm not a fan of all the names around Gurley, but most are in a similar situation. Choice is yours. I think Atlanta is a big time bounce back candidate. Offensive line should be massively upgraded and hopefully all come into the year healthy. I could see Gurley being more of a 15-18 touch guy with another high efficiency season. Ridley/Julio has to be a consideration for top duo in the league, Hurst will fill the Hooper role, Gurley and Ito could be a very successful 65/35ish committee. I'd take the upside of 65-70% of a timeshare in that offense next year for a third (I pick tenth in both leagues, so essentially last in third or first in fourth). 

Edited by buckeyestilidie
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I also think the Falcons will be much better in 2020 as their O-line and defensive stars heal up and return.  But I am not betting my 3rd round pick on this particular player given his injury problems.  

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4 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

round 7 LOL cmon. 

if you're implying gurley will be gone: agreed!

7 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I also think the Falcons will be much better in 2020 as their O-line and defensive stars heal up and return.  But I am not betting my 3rd round pick on this particular player given his injury problems.  

absolutely on both accounts, o-line and round 3 being too high. plenty of great gets in round 3, far less risk. 

14 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I totally get that. I've been spurned by guys before and swear to never draft again. If you aim for Gurley in the 8th, you obviously won't have any shares, but it sounds like you're okay with that. Luckily for you, there are NUMEROUS options at RB in that third round tier that are capable of reaching within the same, if not more, fantasy points than Gurley. Names going in that range are CEH, Fournette, Gordon, DJ, Bell, Conner, and Carson. I'm not a fan of all the names around Gurley, but most are in a similar situation. Choice is yours. I think Atlanta is a big time bounce back candidate. Offensive line should be massively upgraded and hopefully all come into the year healthy. I could see Gurley being more of a 15-18 touch guy with another high efficiency season. Ridley/Julio has to be a consideration for top duo in the league, Hurst will fill the Hooper role, Gurley and Ito could be a very successful 65/35ish committee. I'd take the upside of 65-70% of a timeshare in that offense next year. 

agreed regarding zero shares if looking at the 8th. and i also like the upside of his timeshare in the falcons offense.

overall, we began last season with the same worries, gurley’s knee and gurley’s arthritis and gurley’s risk. but the 25-year old carried the rock 223 times last year behind a below-average offensive line, and shared a backfield with capable backs. he also netted 12 TDs on the ground. and he saw 31 receptions.

 

new team, same worries. he's not 60, though. and averaging 15 carries and 3-4 targets per game last year shows confidence enough. and now gurley is sharing the backfield with turds, none of which have gurley’s hands. i really like gurley in PPR (freeman earned 59 receptions from matt ryan last year).

 

any round 8 talk is crazy. gurley will be gone in round 5 and i like him as an RB2. all RBs carry risk, and most RB2s are now health risks (carson, conner, david johnson, bell), but gurley has no talent breathing down his neck. (funny that bell's biggest handicap is not health: it's being a jet.)

i disagree with consensus: RB2 with RB1 upside. after netting 2 RBs and 2 WRs, potential benefits entirely outweigh risk in round 5.

gurleyfootball.gif?w=1000 

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20 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

if you're implying gurley will be gone: agreed!

absolutely on both accounts, o-line and round 3 being too high. plenty of great gets in round 3, far less risk. 

agreed regarding zero shares if looking at the 8th. and i also like the upside of his timeshare in the falcons offense.

overall, we began last season with the same worries, gurley’s knee and gurley’s arthritis and gurley’s risk. but the 25-year old carried the rock 223 times last year behind a below-average offensive line, and shared a backfield with capable backs. he also netted 12 TDs on the ground. and he saw 31 receptions.

 

new team, same worries. he's not 60, though. and averaging 15 carries and 3-4 targets per game last year shows confidence enough. and now gurley is sharing the backfield with turds, none of which have gurley’s hands. i really like gurley in PPR (freeman earned 59 receptions from matt ryan last year).

 

any round 8 talk is crazy. gurley will be gone in round 5 and i like him as an RB2. all RBs carry risk, and most RB2s are now health risks (carson, conner, david johnson, bell), but gurley has no talent breathing down his neck. (funny that bell's biggest handicap is not health: it's being a jet.)

i disagree with consensus: RB2 with RB1 upside. after netting 2 RBs and 2 WRs, potential benefits entirely outweigh risk in round 5.

gurleyfootball.gif?w=1000 

I will very easily and very happily take a bunch of WR1's and ride gurley as my RB1, and grab a bunch of rb2-3's in the middle/late rounds this year. He is undoubtedly going to be a 3 down back on one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. He had 1000 totalyds and 14 TDS on a team with an abysmal o-line last year and two other backup RBS with way more potential than Ito Smith and Brian Hill. 

Even if not doing the strategy mentioned above, passing on Gurley in the 4th round or later is laughable. 

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40 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

I will very easily and very happily take a bunch of WR1's and ride gurley as my RB1, and grab a bunch of rb2-3's in the middle/late rounds this year. He is undoubtedly going to be a 3 down back on one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. He had 1000 totalyds and 14 TDS on a team with an abysmal o-line last year and two other backup RBS with way more potential than Ito Smith and Brian Hill. 

Even if not doing the strategy mentioned above, passing on Gurley in the 4th round or later is laughable. 

I agree. I'm pick ten in ten man standard, and I'm praying Gurley can fall to the second turn at 3/4. Hopefully all the talks about arthritis flare back up! With Atlantas offensive line massively upgraded and the team coming back healthy for '20, I think Gurley can still have that 1000 yard 10-12 TD floor. Sign me up for that all day in the fourth. 

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