kmoore1521

Todd Gurley 2020 Outlook

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Want no part of him at his current price.

Sure the volume could be there but it was there last year as well and he couldn't do anything with it.  Not sure why an extra year and new state would change anything. 

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

Want no part of him at his current price.

Sure the volume could be there but it was there last year as well and he couldn't do anything with it.  Not sure why an extra year and new state would change anything. 

I agree Gurley is risky as they come, but to say he "didn't do anything with it" is absolutely wrong.  

Weeks 1-16

Standard: RB11

0.5 PPR: RB12

PPR: RB14

I would say a low end RB1/High end RB2 is more than "nothing."  His ADP was around RB9 last year, so he certainly under performed his draft position by a little bit but didn't crush your team in any way.

FFC has his ADP all the way down at RB31.  That can't be right (I know how "misrepresented" ADP can be on FFC).  FantasyPros has him ranked as RB16.  Somewhere between RB15 and RB20 I'm comfortable drafting him.  Not necessarily going out of my way to make sure I own him, but he's shown elite production before and is going to be on a high powered offense.  Could do worse.

Guys like Carson, CEH, Fournette, Gordon, Taylor, Bell seem to be going around Gurley's range.  Each one of those guys has risk attached - whether it's injury, rookie year, crappy offense, etc.

 

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

Not sure why an extra year and new state would change anything. 

LA to atlanta is huge: among other things, humidity is great for arthritis 

tenor.gif?itemid=11188637

9 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Guys like Carson, CEH, Fournette, Gordon, Taylor, Bell seem to be going around Gurley's range.  Each one of those guys has risk attached - whether it's injury, rookie year, crappy offense, etc

agreed. RB2 with RB1 upside, albeit with health risk.

but also, all of those RBs have talent nipping at their heels. gurley is all alone unless the falcons sign a free agent, and the only free agent worth signing is devonta freeman.

 

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2 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

but also, all of those RBs have talent nipping at their heels. gurley is all alone unless the falcons sign a free agent, and the only free agent worth signing is devonta freeman.

Excellent point I forgot to mention.  

Also just want to say, I think your gif game is second to none on this board.  Bravo.  Just about every post makes me laugh.  And you're also a suffering Jets fan like myself - misery loves company!

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10 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Excellent point I forgot to mention.  

Also just want to say, I think your gif game is second to none on this board.  Bravo.  Just about every post makes me laugh.  And you're also a suffering Jets fan like myself - misery loves company!

Between you, Sack and @Iron-cock, it's an interesting bunch of Jets fans - I guess it's true that you can learn more from disasters than from success.

giphy.gif

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23 hours ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I agree. I'm pick ten in ten man standard, and I'm praying Gurley can fall to the second turn at 3/4. Hopefully all the talks about arthritis flare back up! With Atlantas offensive line massively upgraded and the team coming back healthy for '20, I think Gurley can still have that 1000 yard 10-12 TD floor. Sign me up for that all day in the fourth. 

Mind you, most defenses will never be able to stack the box with JJ and Calvin on the field. 

 

Every player has an injury risk; don't be a fool!

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On 6/10/2020 at 7:53 AM, buckeyestilidie said:

I agree. I'm pick ten in ten man standard, and I'm praying Gurley can fall to the second turn at 3/4. Hopefully all the talks about arthritis flare back up! With Atlantas offensive line massively upgraded and the team coming back healthy for '20, I think Gurley can still have that 1000 yard 10-12 TD floor. Sign me up for that all day in the fourth. 

 

Problem is, his ADP will be in the 3rd round just by name recognition.  Visions of Atlanta's prolific O will dance in people's minds and the temptation will be too great.

He'll be gone no later than the 3rd round in most drafts this August.  

In fact I'll say he's a lock if Mixon and Cook hold out.

 

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19 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Every player has an injury risk; don't draft any player!

FTFY ;)

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Having Gurley as either your RB2 or someone you can slide into the Flex is going to play dividend. If you can get 12 productive games from him this year, that will be considered a major win. I foresee him finishing inside the top 10. Some people see this as an opportunity to sell him and get something for him, while others see this as gold. He is posting videos and looks fine. If anything covid helped Gurley as he can focus on his knee more. PPR machine with goal line carries, because we all know Matty doesn't like Julio in the redzone.

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6 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Problem is, his ADP will be in the 3rd round just by name recognition.  Visions of Atlanta's prolific O will dance in people's minds and the temptation will be too great.

He'll be gone no later than the 3rd round in most drafts this August.  

In fact I'll say he's a lock if Mixon and Cook hold out.

 

You're probably spot on. It's difficult to predict ADPs in June, but I'm sure Gurleys name will prop him up into the third come August. To be honest though, I'm pretty okay taking him in the third, as well. I have him entrenched in between the tier break of Mixon, Chubb, Jones and Carson, Bell, Fournette. I think he's better than those backs going in the third, but he's not quite at the level of the group in front of him. If you pick first in a ten man standard, you could have a team of CMC, Sanders, and Gurley. Sign me up for that all day. 

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If Gurley is going in the 30-40 range that means he is being drafted around RB17-20.

Last year he finished as RB14 in half PPR and i'd say the Falcons are just slightly a better situation than the Rams last year. So that price range is more than fair and i'd say a fairly good place to snag Gurley. 

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Barring something major. He will be on all of my teams at the 2-3 turn. Too many positives on a still young RB to ignore.

I’d rather take the chance and fail, then see him stay healthy and have a top 10 season. 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, buckeyestilidie said:

You're probably spot on. It's difficult to predict ADPs in June, but I'm sure Gurleys name will prop him up into the third come August. To be honest though, I'm pretty okay taking him in the third, as well. I have him entrenched in between the tier break of Mixon, Chubb, Jones and Carson, Bell, Fournette. I think he's better than those backs going in the third, but he's not quite at the level of the group in front of him. If you pick first in a ten man standard, you could have a team of CMC, Sanders, and Gurley. Sign me up for that all day. 


Which is downright devastating .. or imagine Barkley, Drake, & Gurley ! If you pick early 1st round , the possibilities are just endless. I chuckle at the folks advocating for Zero-RB , fools gold unless you play in full PPR leagues. Theres insane value to be had @ WR in rounds 4th-7th. Reek & Michael Thomas are the only two I’d even remotely consider scooping up instead of a back. But I much rather prefer going RB-RB-RB. And just for perspective MT13 is literally my favorite player in the league, he went to Taft High School here in LA; Woodland Hills. I have 3 of his jerseys hanging up in my room . Why you ask am I telling you all this ? I have no idea 🤣

Edited by RunCMC

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39 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

Why you ask am I telling you all this ? I have no idea 🤣

It's Friday night and you cracked open a cold brewski :)

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:


Which is downright devastating .. or imagine Barkley, Drake, & Gurley ! If you pick early 1st round , the possibilities are just endless. I chuckle at the folks advocating for Zero-RB , fools gold unless you play in full PPR leagues. Theres insane value to be had @ WR in rounds 4th-7th. Reek & Michael Thomas are the only two I’d even remotely consider scooping up instead of a back. But I much rather prefer going RB-RB-RB. And just for perspective MT13 is literally my favorite player in the league, he went to Taft High School here in LA; Woodland Hills. I have 3 of his jerseys hanging up in my room . Why you ask am I telling you all this ? I have no idea 🤣

Forreal dude, I usually have a top 5 pick so I get a good back. 

But man this year is just so good for those with an early pick, so many great options at that 2/3 turn. It’s almost not fair 😂

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:


Which is downright devastating .. or imagine Barkley, Drake, & Gurley ! If you pick early 1st round , the possibilities are just endless. I chuckle at the folks advocating for Zero-RB , fools gold unless you play in full PPR leagues. Theres insane value to be had @ WR in rounds 4th-7th. Reek & Michael Thomas are the only two I’d even remotely consider scooping up instead of a back. But I much rather prefer going RB-RB-RB. And just for perspective MT13 is literally my favorite player in the league, he went to Taft High School here in LA; Woodland Hills. I have 3 of his jerseys hanging up in my room . Why you ask am I telling you all this ? I have no idea 🤣

 

Even in full ppr leagues, I prefer to have my backfield locked up early because of the reason you stated there is plenty of WR value in the middle rounds.

 

The only two WRs I'm really interested in the first round is MT and Adams. (Full PPR) Julio still debating on.    

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

It's Friday night and you cracked open a cold brewski :)


Lekker !! You know it 😜

 

54 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Even in full ppr leagues, I prefer to have my backfield locked up early because of the reason you stated there is plenty of WR value in the middle rounds.

 

The only two WRs I'm really interested in the first round is MT and Adams. (Full PPR) Julio still debating on.    

 

Honestly I‘ve never played in a full PPR league. God knows it took ages to even convince my friends that standard is dead .. & half PPR is where it’s at. Funny thing is my league mates and I, we all tend to go RB heavy. Which creates even more value at the WR position. But your draft spot is very very crucial , more so than usual. So your high on Adams huh , yeah I could see a big year from him. I had Davante last year, which he started off slow, turf toe hit; then he balled out. Outside the ghost of Devin Funchess , the Packers didn’t add any help to their WR corps. Incoming 1k yards and double digit TD’s  for Adams in 2020. And as far as Julio goes, I mean who doesn’t love them some Julio Jones. Stud period. But I sorta kinda rather have Ridley a few rounds later. Just my opinion , I feel like it’s a better investment of draft capital. 

 

Edited by RunCMC
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4 hours ago, RunCMC said:


Lekker !! You know it 😜

 

 

Honestly I‘ve never played in a full PPR league. God knows it took ages to even convince my friends that standard is dead .. & half PPR is where it’s at. Funny thing is my league mates and I, we all tend to go RB heavy. Which creates even more value at the WR position. But your draft spot is very very crucial , more so than usual. So your high on Adams huh , yeah I could see a big year from him. I had Davante last year, which he started off slow, turf toe hit; then he balled out. Outside the ghost of Devin Funchess , the Packers didn’t add any help to their WR corps. Incoming 1k yards and double digit TD’s  for Adams in 2020. And as far as Julio goes, I mean who doesn’t love them some Julio Jones. Stud period. But I sorta kinda rather have Ridley a few rounds later. Just my opinion , I feel like it’s a better investment of draft capital. 

 

 

I absolutely agree with your assessment of Ridley.  The problem is, in a full ppr, if your sitting at the 11-12 spot.  All the stud RBs are probably long gone by then, especially if Mixon and Cook hold out. Adams and MT are starring you in the face from someone else's team. What are your other options other than Hill assuming he's gone too? 

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5 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

I absolutely agree with your assessment of Ridley.  The problem is, in a full ppr, if your sitting at the 11-12 spot.  All the stud RBs are probably long gone by then, especially if Mixon and Cook hold out. Adams and MT are starring you in the face from someone else's team. What are your other options other than Hill assuming he's gone too? 


Fair enough, I see where you’re getting at. Is Mixon holding out too ? I’ll snap if that’s the case. Don’t they know magick foosball is of the utmost importance ! I’m still fairly optimistic Dalvin suits up, he seems like the ultimate team guy. But I definitely agree with you, full PPR I’m prolly making the same choice. Any other format I’m guessing Chubb or AJ. Although not crazy about either of those 2. So I’m reaching for Drake & a bottle of whiskey 😉

 

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What's the consensus on here about his 2019? He was actually a shell of his former self or the Rams o-line and offense as a whole just regressed which hurt Gurley?

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4 hours ago, sSektor said:

“What's the consensus on here about his 2019? He was actually a shell of his former self or the Rams o-line and offense as a whole just regressed which hurt Gurley?”


Really love this guy, won my share of leagues because of him. He’s been off the board so I haven’t had a chance at him in awhile, but I’m looking forward to adding him this year. For me, the answer to your question is more the latter, as he’s still a good 80% of what he was. 

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Yeah as now he will realized he is not the star on the team like the Rams. As now he will have to seemingly share the wealth with carries there.

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2 hours ago, Passepartout said:

Yeah as now he will realized he is not the star on the team like the Rams. As now he will have to seemingly share the wealth with carries there.

Bonjour! Of course in every offense the carries are to some extent shared, but in Atlanta I see no-one who could threaten him:

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/ATL

RB    

21    Gurley, Todd CC/LAR    

23    Hill, Brian 17/5    

30    Ollison, Qadree 19/5    

25    Smith, Ito 18/4    

42    Reynolds, Craig CF19                        

00    Daniel, Mikey CF20

I don't see a true shared backfield with any of those. Who do you think can threaten him - if he stays healthy?

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How often to declining RBs switching teams actually work out?

Seems like taking him Round 3 is betting on a return to early 2018 form.

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24 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

How often to declining RBs switching teams actually work out?

Seems like taking him Round 3 is betting on a return to early 2018 form.

No it’s not. It’s betting on him staying in the same form as last year. Which isn’t a stretch. 

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