kmoore1521

Todd Gurley 2020 Outlook

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21 hours ago, lolcopter said:

I thought August 1 was the deadline

August 3rd I believe.

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I'd be pretty happy with him as my RB2 assuming they use him like Freeman.   184 carries and 70 targets.   I think he's got more left than Freeman did last year so I'm assuming he'll be a little more efficient.   If he plays 16 games (maybe a big assumption), he's a lock for a top 20 and has a good chance for top 12. 

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Posted (edited)

Am I alone in thinking that Todd Gurley's ADP is a great value right now? His ADP is 5.03 (54th overall). 

The last three seasons his combined receiving/rushing TD's have been: 2017 - 19 TD's, 2018 - 21 TD's, 2019 - 14 TD's. I get the concern. His knee, his production is going in the wrong trend. Last year was a weird year for the Rams, and I'm not convinced Gurley is washed up. He's 26 and he's only missed 4 games in the past 4 seasons. It's not sustainable to get 19-21 TD's a year. Yes the yardage is more concerning, but I think the yardage goes up in Atlanta. No one else is there to threaten Gurley for touches, he'll get the goal line work, and his receptions/receiving yards should go way up with Matt Ryan at the helm. If he plays 14-16 games this year, Gurley is a lock for 10-15 TD's. We know Julio loves to get a ton of yardage and not score. It's hard to find an RB who's good for 10+ TD's in the fifth round. Even in the fourth round, Gurley would be a steal in my mind. I think he's a mid RB1 this year.

Edited by MurderInc

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6 hours ago, MurderInc said:

Am I alone in thinking that Todd Gurley's ADP is a great value right now? His ADP is 5.03 (54th overall). 

The last three seasons his combined receiving/rushing TD's have been: 2017 - 19 TD's, 2018 - 21 TD's, 2019 - 14 TD's. I get the concern. His knee, his production is going in the wrong trend. Last year was a weird year for the Rams, and I'm not convinced Gurley is washed up. He's 26 and he's only missed 4 games in the past 4 seasons. It's not sustainable to get 19-21 TD's a year. Yes the yardage is more concerning, but I think the yardage goes up in Atlanta. No one else is there to threaten Gurley for touches, he'll get the goal line work, and his receptions/receiving yards should go way up with Matt Ryan at the helm. If he plays 14-16 games this year, Gurley is a lock for 10-15 TD's. We know Julio loves to get a ton of yardage and not score. It's hard to find an RB who's good for 10+ TD's in the fifth round. Even in the fourth round, Gurley would be a steal in my mind. I think he's a mid RB1 this year.

 

He's going mid 3rd or so in Yahoo, so I'd consider the ADP referencing you're referring to very good. I know you said that there's no one there to threaten Gurley for touches, but Atlanta has used a second guy for as long as I can remember, even when it's a JAG like Brian Hill or even worse, Ito Smith. I think the touchdowns will be there, but I don't see him as a yardage guy anymore. Between the typically poor run blocking in Atlanta which may/may not be related to Koetter's poor run scheme and Gurley's lack of burst last year, I just don't see it. I don't at all think he's a mid RB1. I think he's a boring, mid RB2 who will be somewhat TD dependent. But good for him if he has another RB1 season.

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I just got him in round 6 of a ten team ppr dynasty. This is super flex. But still, he was my fourth RB. He was the 21st RB taken. I know there is concern about arthritis in knee... but he did very well down the stretch for me last year behind a not so great line. Evidently Atlanta’s line will be better than the rams line. I think the catches will be a difference for him this year.

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Took the plunge with him in the 3rd round as my 3rd RB. Feeling great about it- he had a horrible YPC through the end stretch last season and lack of receptions, but he averaged almost 20 PPR points during fantasy playoffs last year. He may not be worth $18 million, but I still think he's worth more than the $5 million that Atlanta is paying him (Gurley collecting major money from Rams for not even playing with them this year.)

The downside is a bit scary (injury), but I can see a 4 YPC, 250 carry, 40-50 reception season like peak Devonta Freeman. Only- Gurley is a much more stellar red zone back.

I also value continuity more than anything, and the Falcons come back with a very similar team. RB is easy to transition to, so he will be ok. I think he's a good value this year.

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I drafted Gurley as my rb2 in a recent PPR draft at the beginning of round 4 only because he was the best available rb when my turn came around.  I can't say that I'm thrilled with it though.  I had thought about putting him on my do-not-draft list because like others, I'm concerned about his knee issues and that he will end up missing several games.

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10 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I drafted Gurley as my rb2 in a recent PPR draft at the beginning of round 4 only because he was the best available rb when my turn came around.  I can't say that I'm thrilled with it though.  I had thought about putting him on my do-not-draft list because like others, I'm concerned about his knee issues and that he will end up missing several games.

I'd feel better about him in a PPR league than STD, so there's that :) He should be okay as an RB2 if he stays healthy due to pass-catching floor and TDs.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

‘Took the plunge with him in the 3rd round as my 3rd RB. Feeling great about it- he had a horrible YPC through the end stretch last season and lack of receptions, but he averaged almost 20 PPR points during fantasy playoffs last year. He may not be worth $18 million, but I still think he's worth more than the $5 million that Atlanta is paying him (Gurley collecting major money from Rams for not even playing with them this year.) The downside is a bit scary (injury), but I can see a 4 YPC, 250 carry, 40-50 reception season like peak Devonta Freeman. Only- Gurley is a much more stellar red zone back. I also value continuity more than anything, and the Falcons come back with a very similar team. RB is easy to transition to, so he will be ok. I think he's a good value this year.“


Yeah, offensively I think this team has a real chance. As you point out, perhaps more so now, the rapport between Ryan & Jones, along with their other weapons could be huge. Add Gurley, a Georgia native & health becomes the only roadblock. They invested two 1st rd draft picks to shore up the OL last year. So, it should be reasonable to assume that Lindstrom & McGary both take a step forward. This year’s draft was almost entirely defense, the key exception OC Matt Hennessy. Not a road grader, he’s not going to pancake anyone. But great in PP, high football IQ & technically sound. Accordingly makes “difficult reach blocks & traps look easy”. Provides them elite depth at OC, but with his quickness and range, an excellent outside zone scheme fit for them. Nothing I have suggests he could transition to OG, but if so, he likely landed on the right team.

Edited by markrc99

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I meant to add, given that Gurley is your RB3, you’re loaded at RB, we don’t need to know who those guys are. But I’m interested in knowing what you did at WR. 

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On 8/11/2020 at 7:55 AM, markrc99 said:


Yeah, offensively I think this team has a real chance. As you point out, perhaps more so now, the rapport between Ryan & Jones, along with their other weapons could be huge. Add Gurley, a Georgia native & health becomes the only roadblock. They invested two 1st rd draft picks to shore up the OL last year. So, it should be reasonable to assume that Lindstrom & McGary both take a step forward. This year’s draft was almost entirely defense, the key exception OC Matt Hennessy. Not a road grader, he’s not going to pancake anyone. But great in PP, high football IQ & technically sound. Accordingly makes “difficult reach blocks & traps look easy”. Provides them elite depth at OC, but with his quickness and range, an excellent outside zone scheme fit for them. Nothing I have suggests he could transition to OG, but if so, he likely landed on the right team.

Have you seen the interview by Victor Cruz with obj gurley and cam.. it's pretty insightful. In very short he's been working out like crazy during covid feels great and you cant control injuries or worry about them.. i'm liking him this yr and hope i can snag him as my rb 3/flex 

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26 minutes ago, NInsko said:

Have you seen the interview by Victor Cruz with obj gurley and cam.. it's pretty insightful. In very short he's been working out like crazy during covid feels great and you cant control injuries or worry about them.. i'm liking him this yr and hope i can snag him as my rb 3/flex 

This one?

 

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40 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

This one?

 

Yup. What were your thoughts? Initially i was just checking it out to listen to Cam after i was pretty hype about all of them. Mostly Cam and Gurley

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9 minutes ago, NInsko said:

Yup. What were your thoughts? Initially i was just checking it out to listen to Cam after i was pretty hype about all of them. Mostly Cam and Gurley

To be honest, I logged out after 5 minutes.

I didn't really hear anything super interesting, everyone is concerned, there are no clear plans, everyone is in great shape. I was happy to hear Gurley say some smart things about saving some money, and that was about it, but maybe there's a great quote later on?

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

To be honest, I logged out after 5 minutes.

I didn't really hear anything super interesting, everyone is concerned, there are no clear plans, everyone is in great shape. I was happy to hear Gurley say some smart things about saving some money, and that was about it, but maybe there's a great quote later on?

Mostly just listened to Cam talk about the process of being hung out to dry. Feeling disrespected and being more than happy pairing up with BB and that he cant wait to prove every one especially teams that signed other qbs ahead of him wrong. Seems motivated.. Gurley likes being  back home chillen with Julio. Talked about trainning like crazy during covid and says if a injury happens it happens, he cant control it kinda thing. Other than that I fast forwarded anything not football related and most things OBJ related. 

Edited by NInsko

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"I'm excited. FOOTBALL, I don't even care about football that **** will take care of itself... I've been Ballin my whole life, That's what I do" 

-Todd Gurley 

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  • ESPN's Vaughn McClure reports the Falcons are considering limiting Todd Gurley's workload in training camp.

    Training regimens in camp aren't anything new — the Raiders are reportedly doing as much with Josh Jacobs this year. But Vaughn points out that Gurley "walked with a noticeable limp" during the early phases of the Falcons’ acclimation period. It's simply a hard pill to swallow at his current Average Draft Position as the RB15 in the late-second round. The 26-year-old still finds himself in a much better offensive situation than last year, moving from an offense that targeted its running backs at the league's lowest rate to one that filled Devonta Freeman's dusty hands with five targets per game. Caution is at the very least warranted if adding Gurley as an RB2.

    SOURCE: ESPN.com
    Aug 13, 2020, 8:06 AM ET
     
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52 minutes ago, The G Man said:
  • ESPN's Vaughn McClure reports the Falcons are considering limiting Todd Gurley's workload in training camp.

    But Vaughn points out that Gurley "walked with a noticeable limp" during the early phases of the Falcons’ acclimation period.

    SOURCE: ESPN.com
    Aug 13, 2020, 8:06 AM ET
     
  •  

Todd Gurley is going to be the first NFL player to have a disability parking spot for practice and games. 

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58 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

.... aaaaaaand so it begins. 

 


 

Came in to post exactly this letter for letter! LOL!

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2 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

.... aaaaaaand so it begins. 

 

 

During the early phases of the Falcons’ acclimation period, Gurley walked with a noticeable limp and wore a compression sock on his left leg, yet he showed speed and explosion during drills.

One source familiar with Gurley from his days with the Rams told ESPN, “He can’t put his foot in the dirt and go like the old Todd Gurley, but he could still be a productive back."

At least read some of the positive notes here too. People quoting crap out of context. 

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12 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

During the early phases of the Falcons’ acclimation period, Gurley walked with a noticeable limp and wore a compression sock on his left leg, yet he showed speed and explosion during drills.

One source familiar with Gurley from his days with the Rams told ESPN, “He can’t put his foot in the dirt and go like the old Todd Gurley, but he could still be a productive back."

At least read some of the positive notes here too. People quoting crap out of context. 

 

smoke, meet fire 🔥 

'nufced. 

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Should Gurley miss any time, who would be the backup?  Would it be Judge Ito Smith, Qadree Ollison, Brian Hill or a committee involving all 3?

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