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paulwall29

Jimmy Garoppolo 2020 Outlook

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14 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

"What in the hell are you talking about? They have Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida and Jerick McKinnon. You know, the backfield that they made it to the Super Bowl with (excluding McKinnon). Kyle Shanahan doesn't care about a "lead back", he rotates backs throughout the game. What in the wide world of sports makes you think they are going to be trading for a day 3 running back, and are you actually suggesting they will find their "lead back" on day 3 of the draft? It's unlikely that they would have restructured McKinnon's contract and brought him back if they intended to use draft capital on a RB."  

 

Quite an assortment of fallacies. The team made it all the way to the SB with these players at RB, thus, they don't to upgrade at the position. Your point regarding McKinnon's contract is also faulty. Yes, the deal was depicted as a "restructure", for the organization. But for McKinnon it represented a steep pay cut! I don't know, but I suspect cap-wise, the team benefitted more so from the re-do than they otherwise would've by releasing him. I have no idea how far along he is in his recovery, but with what little leverage he did have, his one demand may have been a camp. You either knowingly left out or weren't aware that his role going forward is "highly uncertain"... 

Tevin Coleman is a soldier, a carry-over from the days in Atlanta. But even back when he came out, after 900+ touches at IU, was the question of how much he had left. At this stage, he's largely a system guy on the decline. Raheem Mostert went undrafted & for his 1st year or two, bounced around the league as a temporary return man. I don't know that initially his standing with the 49ers was any different, but despite sustaining injuries, he stuck & he's clearly earned a spot on their roster. There are always exceptions, but physically he's not your proto-typical lead 'back. 

With respect to the term "lead 'back" your counter was entirely a misrepresentation. For us in here it means volume, which in turn equates to the starting RB. Ideally, a starting RB features a lot of key attributes & few weaknesses. Every coach wants as many lead 'backs as he can find. But, there's the question of feasibility, not unlike QB. Let's say Gurley was willing to sign for the minimum, he was never going to end up on a team like the Giants. Beyond the scope & with respect to depth, is why teams opt for a down & distance guy over a two-down 'back.

Finally, I didn't suggest the 49ers would trade for a day 3 RB & there was no mystery, I specifically named the player, Zack Moss. I'll skip the part about what may have been, had he nailed the combine. He's going to get any number of looks prior to the draft. If he shows then what he needed to at the combine, the knee checks out, I think he's a day two pick. Now, if there is reservation, who knows, he could slide well into day three. My point was that when he's at 100%, he's not considered a day 3 talent. Although, they may find him there.    

 

     

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4 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Quite an assortment of fallacies. The team made it all the way to the SB with these players at RB, thus, they don't to upgrade at the position. Your point regarding McKinnon's contract is also faulty. Yes, the deal was depicted as a "restructure", for the organization. But for McKinnon it represented a steep pay cut! I don't know, but I suspect cap-wise, the team benefitted more so from the re-do than they otherwise would've by releasing him. I have no idea how far along he is in his recovery, but with what little leverage he did have, his one demand may have been a camp. You either knowingly left out or weren't aware that his role going forward is "highly uncertain"... 

Tevin Coleman is a soldier, a carry-over from the days in Atlanta. But even back when he came out, after 900+ touches at IU, was the question of how much he had left. At this stage, he's largely a system guy on the decline. Raheem Mostert went undrafted & for his 1st year or two, bounced around the league as a temporary return man. I don't know that initially his standing with the 49ers was any different, but despite sustaining injuries, he stuck & he's clearly earned a spot on their roster. There are always exceptions, but physically he's not your proto-typical lead 'back. 

With respect to the term "lead 'back" your counter was entirely a misrepresentation. For us in here it means volume, which in turn equates to the starting RB. Ideally, a starting RB features a lot of key attributes & few weaknesses. Every coach wants as many lead 'backs as he can find. But, there's the question of feasibility, not unlike QB. Let's say Gurley was willing to sign for the minimum, he was never going to end up on a team like the Giants. Beyond the scope & with respect to depth, is why teams opt for a down & distance guy over a two-down 'back.

Finally, I didn't suggest the 49ers would trade for a day 3 RB & there was no mystery, I specifically named the player, Zack Moss. I'll skip the part about what may have been, had he nailed the combine. He's going to get any number of looks prior to the draft. If he shows then what he needed to at the combine, the knee checks out, I think he's a day two pick. Now, if there is reservation, who knows, he could slide well into day three. My point was that when he's at 100%, he's not considered a day 3 talent. Although, they may find him there.    

 

     

 

The Niners saved 5 million with McKinnon's restructure and would have saved 4.5 million had they cut him, a negligible difference. I know that his role will be a rotational back if he his healthy, but clearly Kyle Shanahan had big plans for him originally (hence the massive contract he gave him) and they will certainly use him when healthy.

I know exactly who Tevin Coleman is as a player but thank you for the "education". He's 26 years old and did exactly what he does every year with the exception of a reduction in touchdowns. He will be used the exact same as he always has, there is no reason to think otherwise.

Who cares if Raheem Mostert is undrafted, bounced around and that his standing was the same when he got to San Fran. He is coming off an amazing season where he averaged 5.6 YPC, had 950 total yards on only 150 touches and scored a whopping 10 TD's. Furthermore, after averaging 6.4 ypc in the playoffs, singlehandedly putting the team on his back in the NFC championship game with 220 yard 4 TD game, there is no doubt whatsoever that he will remain heavily involved next season.

Another back that you conveniently left out is Matt Breida, probably the most talented back on the roster. The Niners placed a second round tender on Breida (a stiff price for another team to pay for a running back), which should tell you all you need to know about how highly the the team thinks of him. Breida had an excellent season last year, while dealing with injuries, posting 743 yards on just 140 touches on 5.1 YPC.

Finally, I didn't even mention that Niners also resigned Jeff Wilson, so they already have FIVE bodies at the position accounted for going into training camp. 

Thank you for stating the obvious of what a lead back entails. And, once again, Kyle Shanahan doesn't give a **** about what you and the rest of the fantasy community consider a lead back to be. The Niners were the number 2 rushing team in the NFL last season without your traditional "lead back". This is the same formula Bill Bellichick has implemented (with a few exceptions) that led to 20+ years of success.  Everyone understands that if a team finds an exceptional talent they will be used as a "lead back" but, again, clearly it's not a pressing need for a team that was elite on the ground without one.

I agree with your take on Zack Moss' draft status, I disagree that the Niners will be the team he ends up on, because they already have 5 roster spots at the RB position accounted for. 

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4 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Quite an assortment of fallacies. The team made it all the way to the SB with these players at RB, thus, they don't to upgrade at the position. Your point regarding McKinnon's contract is also faulty. Yes, the deal was depicted as a "restructure", for the organization. But for McKinnon it represented a steep pay cut! I don't know, but I suspect cap-wise, the team benefitted more so from the re-do than they otherwise would've by releasing him. I have no idea how far along he is in his recovery, but with what little leverage he did have, his one demand may have been a camp. You either knowingly left out or weren't aware that his role going forward is "highly uncertain"... 

Tevin Coleman is a soldier, a carry-over from the days in Atlanta. But even back when he came out, after 900+ touches at IU, was the question of how much he had left. At this stage, he's largely a system guy on the decline. Raheem Mostert went undrafted & for his 1st year or two, bounced around the league as a temporary return man. I don't know that initially his standing with the 49ers was any different, but despite sustaining injuries, he stuck & he's clearly earned a spot on their roster. There are always exceptions, but physically he's not your proto-typical lead 'back. 

With respect to the term "lead 'back" your counter was entirely a misrepresentation. For us in here it means volume, which in turn equates to the starting RB. Ideally, a starting RB features a lot of key attributes & few weaknesses. Every coach wants as many lead 'backs as he can find. But, there's the question of feasibility, not unlike QB. Let's say Gurley was willing to sign for the minimum, he was never going to end up on a team like the Giants. Beyond the scope & with respect to depth, is why teams opt for a down & distance guy over a two-down 'back.

Finally, I didn't suggest the 49ers would trade for a day 3 RB & there was no mystery, I specifically named the player, Zack Moss. I'll skip the part about what may have been, had he nailed the combine. He's going to get any number of looks prior to the draft. If he shows then what he needed to at the combine, the knee checks out, I think he's a day two pick. Now, if there is reservation, who knows, he could slide well into day three. My point was that when he's at 100%, he's not considered a day 3 talent. Although, they may find him there.    

 

     

 

 

I think the key to understanding the SF backfield in tems of roster construction is Wilson+Mostert+Breida all had a role on special teams, which is why they probably won't go anywhere given their current cheap contracts, although Breida will need to be paid more since the Niners placed a 2nd rd tender on him.

Coleman is technically the lead rb in this backfield  because he "started" 11 games so slice and dice that however you want because it doesnt have much value in fantasy.

mkinnons deal is now a 1yr contract and this is his prove it year, his value was always in his ability to run routes and catch passes.  Keep in mind the Niners could have released him at any point the last 2 seasons and saved a ton of money but they didn't so that tells me they really really really believe in Mkinnon and will use him a lot if he stays healthy. You simply dont carry a guy on that type of contract if you dont think he is critical to your offensive plans. He is the elusive, dynamic pass catching, speed rb they have lacked the last 2 seasons.

I also think this is the year with Mkinnon  on the field we see more passing to the rb group. This should help JimmyG  production because the rb's were not  critical to the passing game last season; they had 22% of the passing offense(not sure how many of those were dump offs) . The Niners had 467 targets  last season and the rb's group had 103 of those with the FB getting 24 and coleman 30. . . .  so there is definitely room for a dynamic pass catching rb in the scheme.

 

I like the outlook of JimmyG  as a weekly streamer with a healthy mkinnon on the field, specifically in the redzone; his TD and passing volumes should increase.

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19 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

"The Niners saved 5 million with McKinnon's restructure and would have saved 4.5 million had they cut him, a negligible difference. I know that his role will be a rotational back if he his healthy, but clearly Kyle Shanahan had big plans for him originally (hence the massive contract he gave him) and they will certainly use him when healthy. ... Raheem Mostert is ... coming off an amazing season ... and ... singlehandedly putting the team on his back in the NFC championship game with 220 yard 4 TD game, there is no doubt whatsoever that he will remain heavily involved next season. ... 

And, once again, Kyle Shanahan doesn't give a **** about what you and the rest of the fantasy community consider a lead back to be. The Niners were the number 2 rushing team in the NFL last season without your traditional "lead back"."

 

Your own content contradicts what you contend Kyle Shanahan couldn't care less about.... Reportedly, McKinnon should be ready & in camp, as Dash points out. Now, Dash further contends that the near $18M they paid him in guarantees, they didn't have to. I couldn't find anything to substantiate that. These sources contradict the notion that he got hurt & the team chose to roll with him anyway.  

Quote

 

"McKinnon received $18 million in guarantees, $11.7 million of which is guaranteed at signing. Mckinnon received a $2 million signing bonus and $5.5 million roster bonus. His 2019 salary will become fully guaranteed on April 1, 2019." https://overthecap.com/player/jerick-mckinnon/3035/

"This was a player that had Shanahan so excited a year ago. He was going to revamp his entire offense to fit McKinnon’s rare skills as a runner and receiver. ... There is no reason to cut him any time soon. Teams cannot cut injured players without a financial settlement and, also, his entire 2019 salary is fully guaranteed.https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-mailbag-will-jerick-mckinnon-ever-play-down-san-francisco

 

 

That 2nd source is dated August of '19, by then McKinnon's salary already guaranteed. So this material suggests something different, that initially the team committed $11.7M right off the top! They ended up tied to more when McKinnon re-injured the same knee (post April 1st). As soon as the team was able to restructure this thing, they did! I don't mean to suggest that they're not excited about this player, although I can't imagine they have the same level of confidence in his availability. I've read that Shanahan was prepared to revamp his offense to better exploit McKinnon's skill set.        

Perhaps that is still the plan, but I wouldn't expect it. For those of us who draft prior to the NFL preseason, Jerick McKinnon is likely to be a guy that can had in the 15th RD. Well worth a mid-summer investment! Tough, strong & looks the part, low-center, catches the ball away from his frame. But he's not very big & he isn't going to be anointed anything. Jeff Wilson jr, last I checked, a 6' sub-200lb guy... which would more than likely be the reason he went un-drafted, he isn't built for it. With respect to Matt Breida I did find this: "The 49ers gave [him] a second-round tender as a restricted free agent. They are open to discussing trades with other teams for less compensation than it would take to sign him to an offer sheet." 

I get rostering any one of these guys, but as a group, availability isn't exactly a strength. I didn't say they would pursue Zack Moss or any RB, but that he fits their tendency to roll with unheralded players on the cheap.          

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On 3/22/2020 at 2:56 PM, dashoe said:

"I think .. this is the year with McKinnon on the field we see more passing to the rb group. This should help JimmyG production because the rb's were not critical to the passing game last season; they had 22% of the passing offense (not sure how many of those were dump-offs). The Niners had 467 targets last season and the rb's group had 103 of those with the FB getting 24 and coleman 30. . . .  so there is definitely room for a dynamic pass catching rb in the scheme. I like the outlook of JimmyG as a weekly streamer with a healthy McKinnon on the field, specifically in the redzone; his TD and passing volumes should increase."

 

Your boy just recently posted a "workout" video on instagram. Says he's working hard, but... this is just me, but 10mins in I've broken a sweat. It shows him running all sorts of drills, but I don't see a bead of anything. :) Members who drafted this player & are thinking stuff is aligning for him, remember this: he blew that knee out all on his own, a non-contact injury! They signed him and again the knee gives out, this time in practice. After re-injuring the knee a third time in as many years, they discovered it wasn't healing & measures were taken to initiate the process. While the matter has been properly diagnosed & repaired, expecting to witness something dynamic & may be a bit of a reach.           

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4 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

Your own content contradicts what you contend Kyle Shanahan couldn't care less about.... Reportedly, McKinnon should be ready & in camp, as Dash points out. Now, Dash further contends that the near $18M they paid him in guarantees, they didn't have to. I couldn't find anything to substantiate that. These sources contradict the notion that he got hurt & the team chose to roll with him anyway.  

 

That 2nd source is dated August of '19, by then McKinnon's salary already guaranteed. So this material suggests something different, that initially the team committed $11.7M right off the top! They ended up tied to more when McKinnon re-injured the same knee (post April 1st). As soon as the team was able to restructure this thing, they did! I don't mean to suggest that they're not excited about this player, although I can't imagine they have the same level of confidence in his availability. I've read that Shanahan was prepared to revamp his offense to better exploit McKinnon's skill set.        

Perhaps that is still the plan, but I wouldn't expect it. For those of us who draft prior to the NFL preseason, Jerick McKinnon is likely to be a guy that can had in the 15th RD. Well worth a mid-summer investment! Tough, strong & looks the part, low-center, catches the ball away from his frame. But he's not very big & he isn't going to be anointed anything. Jeff Wilson jr, last I checked, a 6' sub-200lb guy... which would more than likely be the reason he went un-drafted, he isn't built for it. With respect to Matt Breida I did find this: "The 49ers gave [him] a second-round tender as a restricted free agent. They are open to discussing trades with other teams for less compensation than it would take to sign him to an offer sheet." 

I get rostering any one of these guys, but as a group, availability isn't exactly a strength. I didn't say they would pursue Zack Moss or any RB, but that he fits their tendency to roll with unheralded players on the cheap.          

 

Your assertion was that because they have many RB's they are in need of a "lead back" and that Zack Moss was on their radar as a day 3 pick. My assertion was that they won't spend draft capital on a running back when they have FIVE bodies at the position (the most in the league) and were the number 2 team in the NFL last season with 2 backs averaging over 5 ypc...and because of this Kyle Shanahan doesn't give a **** about finding a "lead back"--he has plenty of talent at the position (including a WR in Deebo Samuel that is used heavily in the run game). I literally said that if he finds a guy he loves (re: Jerrick McKinnon) then, sure, that player could be used as a lead back. However, the teams landscape at the position was different when they signed McKinnon then it is now--They had an aging running back (Alfred Morris) that got released, Raheem Mostert wasn't a thing with only 34 carries in 2018 and Tevin Coleman wasn't on the team; that is no longer the landscape of their backfield.

As for your claim that availability isn't a strength, there is no data supporting your argument. The Niners were number 2 in the league in rushing last season, 8th in YPC and 2nd in YPG. They were number 1 in rushing YPG in the playoffs and number 1 in rushing TD's and made it to the super bowl where they had 139 rushing yards. Running the football was their biggest strength last year, hence Kyle Shanahan not giving a **** about finding another "lead back" in the draft when he already has a winning formula at the position. Now, in the next few season when some of these contracts expire and players continue to age, I will have a very different take on this backfield. But RB is the easiest position to fill in the NFL, there is no reason for them to add another body and go into training camp with six players at the position. That would be a waste of resources and this team is too smart at team building for that to happen.

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As I said they would add a vet wr to that room but not any of the ones I thought they would.

Travis wasnt even on my radar 😂

 

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17 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

"Your assertion ... As for your claim that availability isn't a strength, there is no data supporting your argument. ... But RB is the easiest position to fill in the NFL, there is no reason for them to add another body and go into training camp with six players at the position. That would be a waste of resources..."

 

You keep making the same claim(s), which I've denied. If you were credible you would simply cite what I've said specifically. You don't because you can't! Again, I don't think they're as deep at RB as you & others believe. But it's not that simple, do they have the resources & how much of a priority is it? Not w/o exception, McKinnon simply the latest, the Shanahans have a long history of molding their group & on the cheap. Given that tendency & the fact they don't have a two-day pick, should the draft stock of Zack Moss plummet him into day three, I can see them drafting him. I never said they were going to draft him or any other RB. To this point, the only team I linked to Moss was KC & even there, that they'd taken a close look at him.

I'm here because I gain a lot of insight. I try to add back, but it doesn't always seem to go that way. However, there are readers who, at the very least can identify with the argument. And so, I speak to them! I find it flawed to devalue the RB position (for which there's certainly proof of), and to then not recognize or acknowledge the later rounds are where considerable value can be found. On top of that is the current climate, due to the coronavirus, assessing players physically, medicals are out! Pro days have all been cancelled! So we have a delay, something that's leaving teams not able to scout as well as they'd like. If these are facts or reasonable assessments, what would be among the safer selections on day three if not a ball carrier!?      

With respect to the 'niners backfield & availability, I reviewed every box score from this past season. The active roster availability looked good for the group, for each of them. But I would contend that it's misleading. On any given week you can find any one them assuming the lead role or close to a split. But then the following week, frequently one or no touches at all. Same thing regarding the supporting role, very often a different player. It was that way through week 11. On week 12 Raheem Mostert assumed the lead role on this team. He didn't dominate touches, but with his performance v Baltimore, he clearly became their lead 'back. That is, with one exception, their divisional round playoff game v Minnesota. Out of nowhere, Coleman re-emerged for 22 carries!

It's also clear from the evidence that Shanahan wasn't riding the hot hand. This unit's "depth" wasn't a luxury but more so relied upon, they needed to rotate them. Even though Mostert is listed as a sub-200lb player, he proved capable of assuming 200+ touches. Would love to read that his offseason conditioning regimen will definitely have him ready. Same with Wilson jr. Should that happen along with McKinnon making a successful return, I can them parting with both Coleman & Breida & adding one.   To this point we've failed to include the FB, that's a lot of "bodies" when they seemingly need help elsewhere.

 

 

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

You keep making the same claim(s), which I've denied. If you were credible you would simply cite what I've said specifically. You don't because you can't! Again, I don't think they're as deep at RB as you & others believe. But it's not that simple, do they have the resources & how much of a priority is it? Not w/o exception, McKinnon simply the latest, the Shanahans have a long history of molding their group & on the cheap. Given that tendency & the fact they don't have a two-day pick, should the draft stock of Zack Moss plummet him into day three, I can see them drafting him. I never said they were going to draft him or any other RB. To this point, the only team I linked to Moss was KC & even there, that they'd taken a close look at him.

I'm here because I gain a lot of insight. I try to add back, but it doesn't always seem to go that way. However, there are readers who, at the very least can identify with the argument. And so, I speak to them! I find it flawed to devalue the RB position (for which there's certainly proof of), and to then not recognize or acknowledge the later rounds are where considerable value can be found. On top of that is the current climate, due to the coronavirus, assessing players physically, medicals are out! Pro days have all been cancelled! So we have a delay, something that's leaving teams not able to scout as well as they'd like. If these are facts or reasonable assessments, what would be among the safer selections on day three if not a ball carrier!?      

With respect to the 'niners backfield & availability, I reviewed every box score from this past season. The active roster availability looked good for the group, for each of them. But I would contend that it's misleading. On any given week you can find any one them assuming the lead role or close to a split. But then the following week, frequently one or no touches at all. Same thing regarding the supporting role, very often a different player. It was that way through week 11. On week 12 Raheem Mostert assumed the lead role on this team. He didn't dominate touches, but with his performance v Baltimore, he clearly became their lead 'back. That is, with one exception, their divisional round playoff game v Minnesota. Out of nowhere, Coleman re-emerged for 22 carries!

It's also clear from the evidence that Shanahan wasn't riding the hot hand. This unit's "depth" wasn't a luxury but more so relied upon, they needed to rotate them. Even though Mostert is listed as a sub-200lb player, he proved capable of assuming 200+ touches. Would love to read that his offseason conditioning regimen will definitely have him ready. Same with Wilson jr. Should that happen along with McKinnon making a successful return, I can them parting with both Coleman & Breida & adding one.   To this point we've failed to include the FB, that's a lot of "bodies" when they seemingly need help elsewhere.

 

 

 

The only reason I would see the Niners taking a rb is they need to free up roster spots to strengthen other areas. Having 5 rb's on the roster is a luxury which means you can't add depth in other positions that you may want. The rb depth was needed because their injury rate was high. Maybe they gamble they need less depth moving forward.

Shanny in my view was fortunate that 3 of his rb's he could use on special teams but I am not sure that can continue going forward; particularly with Breidas potential contract. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

You keep making the same claim(s), which I've denied. If you were credible you would simply cite what I've said specifically. You don't because you can't! Again, I don't think they're as deep at RB as you & others believe. But it's not that simple, do they have the resources & how much of a priority is it? Not w/o exception, McKinnon simply the latest, the Shanahans have a long history of molding their group & on the cheap. Given that tendency & the fact they don't have a two-day pick, should the draft stock of Zack Moss plummet him into day three, I can see them drafting him. I never said they were going to draft him or any other RB. To this point, the only team I linked to Moss was KC & even there, that they'd taken a close look at him.

I'm here because I gain a lot of insight. I try to add back, but it doesn't always seem to go that way. However, there are readers who, at the very least can identify with the argument. And so, I speak to them! I find it flawed to devalue the RB position (for which there's certainly proof of), and to then not recognize or acknowledge the later rounds are where considerable value can be found. On top of that is the current climate, due to the coronavirus, assessing players physically, medicals are out! Pro days have all been cancelled! So we have a delay, something that's leaving teams not able to scout as well as they'd like. If these are facts or reasonable assessments, what would be among the safer selections on day three if not a ball carrier!?      

With respect to the 'niners backfield & availability, I reviewed every box score from this past season. The active roster availability looked good for the group, for each of them. But I would contend that it's misleading. On any given week you can find any one them assuming the lead role or close to a split. But then the following week, frequently one or no touches at all. Same thing regarding the supporting role, very often a different player. It was that way through week 11. On week 12 Raheem Mostert assumed the lead role on this team. He didn't dominate touches, but with his performance v Baltimore, he clearly became their lead 'back. That is, with one exception, their divisional round playoff game v Minnesota. Out of nowhere, Coleman re-emerged for 22 carries!

It's also clear from the evidence that Shanahan wasn't riding the hot hand. This unit's "depth" wasn't a luxury but more so relied upon, they needed to rotate them. Even though Mostert is listed as a sub-200lb player, he proved capable of assuming 200+ touches. Would love to read that his offseason conditioning regimen will definitely have him ready. Same with Wilson jr. Should that happen along with McKinnon making a successful return, I can them parting with both Coleman & Breida & adding one.   To this point we've failed to include the FB, that's a lot of "bodies" when they seemingly need help elsewhere.

 

 

 

Lol are you serious right now? Denying your own claims makes YOU not credible and impossible to debate with. Direct quotes from your posts (in bold so you can't miss them):

"You cite a number, no name(s). Telling, acknowledgement to the fact they don't have a lead 'back'"

"Every coach wants as many lead 'backs as he can find"

"I get rostering any one of these guys, but as a group, availability isn't exactly a strength." 

"I think RB, in particular, Zack Moss may be on this team's radar as a day three pickup"

Now, here is my direct quote:

"Your assertion was that because they have many RB's they are in need of a "lead back" and that Zack Moss was on their radar as a day 3 pick. My assertion was that they won't spend draft capital on a running back when they have FIVE bodies at the position (the most in the league) and were the number 2 team in the NFL last season with 2 backs averaging over 5 ypc."

Now here are quotes from your most recent post just so we can be clear about what you said (again in bold so that they are very clear to you):

"With respect to the 'niners backfield & availability, I reviewed every box score from this past season. The active roster availability looked good for the group, for each of them. But I would contend that it's misleading. On any given week you can find any one them assuming the lead role or close to a split. But then the following week, frequently one or no touches at all. Same thing regarding the supporting role, very often a different player. It was that way through week 11. On week 12 Raheem Mostert assumed the lead role on this team. He didn't dominate touches, but with his performance v Baltimore, he clearly became their lead 'back. That is, with one exception, their divisional round playoff game v Minnesota. Out of nowhere, Coleman re-emerged for 22 carries!"

What are you talking about? You reviewed the box score and their roster availability looked good for each of them? Duh, hence my assertion that RB isn't a need for them to address this offseason because they have the same group that made their roster availability look good.

"On any given week you can find any one them assuming the lead role or close to a split. But then the following week, frequently one or no touches at all."

Yes, this is what a rotational backfield looks like. Once again, you are simply stating the obvious.

"It's also clear from the evidence that Shanahan wasn't riding the hot hand. This unit's "depth" wasn't a luxury but more so relied upon, they needed to rotate them."

Why would Shanahan not "riding the hot hand" and instead rotating his backs to keep them all fresh be a bad thing if led to the second best rushing output in the NFL--clearly Shanahan's approach was effective. If Breida or Coleman is moved then I would reassess the possibility of them drafting a back but until then I will work with the facts that Tevin Coleman is under contract and that the team extended a 2nd round tender worth 3.29 million dollars to their RFA RB, clearly indicating they value him and want him back. Your speculation doesn't usurp the facts.

Edited by paulwall29

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

"I think RB, in particular, Zack Moss may be on this team's radar as a day three pickup"

Now, here is my direct quote:

"Your assertion was that because they have many RB's they are in need of a "lead back" and that Zack Moss was on their radar as a day 3 pick.

 

What I have cited, this reflects your entire comment above! You manufacture the counterargument & then respond to your own creation. Saying that a RB, Zack Moss or any other may be in the 49ers draft plans, isn't the same as contending that he in fact is! Below are several articles I had considered. These writers shared their opinions regarding the niners draft needs & potential prospects, Moss is named in both.  

https://ninernoise.com/2020/03/12/49ers-2020-nfl-draft-needs-top-5-running-backs/4/                                                                         https://ninernoise.com/2020/02/29/49ers-2020-nfl-draft-3-playmakers-consider-first-round/3/

One last time, I'll address your premise. Which is, given that the 'Niners were the league's 2nd best rushing attack, they don't need a ball carrier. Perhaps they don't, but SF's pass defense was also the league's 2nd best! Yet, everywhere you can find material contending that they don't need just one guy, they need to add multiple players in the back. The last word is yours, I'm done with your inability to represent what I say credibly. 

Edited by markrc99

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3 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

What I have cited, this reflects your entire comment above! You manufacture the counterargument & then respond to your own creation. Saying that a RB, Zack Moss or any other may be in the 49ers draft plans, isn't the same as contending that he in fact is! Below are several articles I had considered. These writers shared their opinions regarding the niners draft needs & potential prospects, Moss is named in both.  

https://ninernoise.com/2020/03/12/49ers-2020-nfl-draft-needs-top-5-running-backs/4/                                                                         https://ninernoise.com/2020/02/29/49ers-2020-nfl-draft-3-playmakers-consider-first-round/3/

One last time, I'll address your premise. Which is, given that the 'Niners were the league's 2nd best rushing attack, they don't need a ball carrier. Perhaps they don't, but SF's pass defense was also the league's 2nd best! Yet, everywhere you can find material contending that they don't need just one guy, they need to add multiple players in the back. The last word is yours, I'm done with your inability to represent what I say credibly. 

 

Hahaha first it was that my entire representation of what you said was false, then I cite your own words back to you and now you get hung-up on me using "was" instead of "may." This is just ridiculous. The point I'm making is that running back is NOT a priority for them and that your take on their backfield and obsession with a "lead back" is a bad one. Just replace the "was" from my original quote with "may" and I still stand by my entire argument. Sure, they could draft any position with their 6th or 7th round pick but Moss will not fall that far and will not be on the team's radar for where they would have to take him.

Do you realize that you're using articles that were written before the Niners restructured McKinnon's contract and placed a second round tender on Breida? Do you think that affects the draft outlook for the Niners? Do you realize that you're citing a fan website (fansided) where some guy named named Jeremy Wohlfart (who has 38 twitter followers) is just ranking his top 5 running backs for the draft (there is a comment on the article from 13 days ago and, ironically, the comment is putting him in his place for why RB isn't a need). Your second article is from the same site and is written by some guy named Josh Alford (who has 23 twitter followers) who was suggesting the Niners should take Zack Moss in the first round (laughable). You should know, sites like 'Fansided' will take contributions from anyone that takes the time to submit coherent content to them, these are not the type of sources you want to be getting your information from. 

You keep working on logical fallacies: comparing their secondary needs to their running back needs because both groups finished well last year is not an apples to apples comparison. The reason that secondary is a need for them is because Richard Sherman is a 32 year old CB that has dealt with injuries and is only under contract through the 2020 season and they had to run a platoon at their other cornerback spot where neither player proved to be consistent and they have very little depth behind them. Most articles stating 'secondary' as a major need, rather than cornerback, were written before the team resigned safety Jimmie Ward.  Context is everything here. Feel free to rebuttal about how I misrepresented you.

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Might be time to take this one to PM?

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On 3/25/2020 at 9:57 AM, markrc99 said:

 

You keep making the same claim(s), which I've denied. If you were credible you would simply cite what I've said specifically. You don't because you can't! Again, I don't think they're as deep at RB as you & others believe. But it's not that simple, do they have the resources & how much of a priority is it? Not w/o exception, McKinnon simply the latest, the Shanahans have a long history of molding their group & on the cheap. Given that tendency & the fact they don't have a two-day pick, should the draft stock of Zack Moss plummet him into day three, I can see them drafting him. I never said they were going to draft him or any other RB. To this point, the only team I linked to Moss was KC & even there, that they'd taken a close look at him.

I'm here because I gain a lot of insight. I try to add back, but it doesn't always seem to go that way. However, there are readers who, at the very least can identify with the argument. And so, I speak to them! I find it flawed to devalue the RB position (for which there's certainly proof of), and to then not recognize or acknowledge the later rounds are where considerable value can be found. On top of that is the current climate, due to the coronavirus, assessing players physically, medicals are out! Pro days have all been cancelled! So we have a delay, something that's leaving teams not able to scout as well as they'd like. If these are facts or reasonable assessments, what would be among the safer selections on day three if not a ball carrier!?      

With respect to the 'niners backfield & availability, I reviewed every box score from this past season. The active roster availability looked good for the group, for each of them. But I would contend that it's misleading. On any given week you can find any one them assuming the lead role or close to a split. But then the following week, frequently one or no touches at all. Same thing regarding the supporting role, very often a different player. It was that way through week 11. On week 12 Raheem Mostert assumed the lead role on this team. He didn't dominate touches, but with his performance v Baltimore, he clearly became their lead 'back. That is, with one exception, their divisional round playoff game v Minnesota. Out of nowhere, Coleman re-emerged for 22 carries!

It's also clear from the evidence that Shanahan wasn't riding the hot hand. This unit's "depth" wasn't a luxury but more so relied upon, they needed to rotate them. Even though Mostert is listed as a sub-200lb player, he proved capable of assuming 200+ touches. Would love to read that his offseason conditioning regimen will definitely have him ready. Same with Wilson jr. Should that happen along with McKinnon making a successful return, I can them parting with both Coleman & Breida & adding one.   To this point we've failed to include the FB, that's a lot of "bodies" when they seemingly need help elsewhere.

 

 

Tevin Coleman is a non factor, Mckinnon hasnt even played for the 49ers yet (when was the last time he actually took a snap?) Breida seems like he cant stay on the field either.

 

Mostert is the only reliable back on the roster it seems. Id think they would have to get rid of a back or two before drafting one though.

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Wow - a lot more discussion in here on Jimmy already than I anticipated. I'm not sure I'm ready to take him in a redraft this year but I was impressed overall with his 2019. He's reasonably efficient, has decent athleticism to deal with pressure - I think he's a valuable Dynasty hold and has a good future in this offense. His role will definitely grow as Shanahan works him into the system. He just made a run at the championship in his first full season as SF's starter, 2-1 TD/INT ratio - dude's pretty good.

That's why I'm confused with this Brady blurb from RW - very strange, especially the last part 🤨. Not really expecting reaction here - just...strange to me.

49ers GM John Lynch admits the team had "internal discussions" about signing Tom Brady but says the idea was squashed "within a day or two." 

"When you're talking about one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time with Tom Brady, of course you're going to have some internal discussion," Lynch said, reasonably. "But within a day or two, Kyle (Shanahan) and I looked at each other and said, 'You know what, we really like what we have in Jimmy.' We love everything that he brings and we really believe it's a long-term answer. I would tell you we're more convinced than ever about who our quarterback is in Jimmy Garoppolo." We will never know for sure how real these talks were, but the record can show they did indeed happen. Beginning next offseason, the Niners can pull the ripcord on Garoppolo's deal with little cap ramification.  
 

SOURCE: ESPN
Apr 21, 2020, 5:26 PM ET
 

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He's in a bit of a tough spot- was supposedly the next big thing, and while he isn't bad, the rest of the league is looking at the numbers put up by Mahomes, Watson, Lamar and wondering what happened.   There's going to be a line of criticism shot his way at times about "he can't win them a game when he has to"- for whatever its worth.   

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23 minutes ago, BrianM said:

He's in a bit of a tough spot- was supposedly the next big thing, and while he isn't bad, the rest of the league is looking at the numbers put up by Mahomes, Watson, Lamar and wondering what happened.   There's going to be a line of criticism shot his way at times about "he can't win them a game when he has to"- for whatever its worth.   

The Niners are much like the Steelers team that beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl '05-'06 (Roethlisberger under 2400 yards passing in 12 games) - or the Dilfer-led Ravens in '01 (1500 in 8 games). Tremendous defense, dominant running game. As "innovative" as Kyle is, he also has old-school Father Mike whispering in his ear. Jimmy threw the ball a TOTAL of 25 times in Divisional/Champ rounds combined. That's very similar (although not as productive) to the numbers Big Ben put up in his early and very successful years. This team doesn't need a Mahomes (although it would be nice).

Like every other team throughout history, SF's defense is going to be "attritioned" out over time (see Seattle) - Jimmy G will begin to be more of a focal point inevitably in a Shanahan offense. It is absolutely WAY too soon to "pull the ripcord" with JG's efficiency numbers. He took them to the SB as a 28 YO, starting all 16 games.

Big Ben eventually hit 5000+ yards in a season - right now SF does not need that. 

All of the above are seasons why I likely won't take him in re-draft this year BTW - but I have an open mind on the issue depending on what shakes out in the offseason.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, BrianM said:

He's in a bit of a tough spot- was supposedly the next big thing, and while he isn't bad, the rest of the league is looking at the numbers put up by Mahomes, Watson, Lamar and wondering what happened.   There's going to be a line of criticism shot his way at times about "he can't win them a game when he has to"- for whatever its worth.   

What kind of comment is this. He constantly won them games when he had to. I already know what the response is going to be. "But he didn't win the superbowl". Don't even bother commenting it When they needed a comeback during the season he came through. Saints, Ari x2, LA, GB-he didnt get a bunch of rushing support although they straight up blew them out. One of their loses Chase McLaughlin missed a kick in overtime, another the defense gave up a terrible game winning drive where they decided not to cover julio and barely missed stopping him at the 1. The last 1 was against the best team in the league (The Ravens) where they called a questionable passing play that got batted on 4th and 1 and Lamar won the game on a field goal on the next drive. Not to mention a lot of these games were on national tv.

Lamar was the league MVP.

Mahomes is the best qb in the league and here is the Watson comparison: 

Garoppolo: 329/476 69.1 CMP%, 3978 yards, 27 tds, 13 ints, 

Watson: 333/495 67.3 CMP%, 3852 yards, 26 tds 12 ints

This was Garoppolo's first full season as a starting quarterback.

He was never in the Mahomes tier of qb.

He hits that throw to Sanders and we are potentially talking about a super bowl mvp. 

Thats my 2 cents. Also, they resigned Mullens because he is a quality backup that knows the system. Not to replace Jimmy. 

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Not my take man, but i promise you you'll hear it from the talking heads at some point this year..   Hence my use of "for what its worth". I could've made it clearer that i didn't really agree with it- it was meant to opine on why RW might feel the need to mention he's got a contract out in 2021.   

TL:DR- he's done what he's had to for his team to win, but people want flash and think that's what SF needs to go all the way, hence the odd takes

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It's insane to me how much grief this guy gets. People should go look at the first full season of the great QB's not named Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. Jimmy's first year numbers are on par or better than everyone else's first season--and on less passing attempts. People expect these guys to be instantly great and it takes time. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning sucked in their first few seasons as starters. Not saying Jimmy G will be on either of their levels but people need to relax and recognize that he actually had a really good season for a first full season as a starter.

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I think of two factors that cause this kind of thinking:  First, the obvious black-or-white hot take times we live in.  Either you have it or you don't, right now, today, and there's no middle ground.  Logical people dismiss this, but the take givers get so much air time and press that its impossible not to hear it.

:The other thing is the seemingly instant success for a lot of quaterbacks of this generation.  Wilson, Newton, Mahomes, and quite a few others hit the ground running as a starter- little to no learning curve.   People forget that (as aforementioned), some HOF QB's took time to marinate.  

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Jimmy is a decent real life QB but I will not have him in fantasy 2020.  49ers are a run first team and even if their defense regresses, I can't imagine we get high levels of volume from Jimmy because that offense, going through Shanahan's run game, is too effective.  I'm 100% a "wait on QB late" guy, and even still, there's plenty of other names I rather have right now around Jimmy's ADP - probably about 20+ QBs I would rather have, and I only play in 1QB leagues, so I will not be drafting Jimmy this year.  Just not enough upside.

In a 2QB or Superflex league, he seems like a decent, high floor option for your second or third QB.  

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Jimmy G was thoroughly exposed today. He can't throw an accurate deep ball and has a lot of issues throwing any sort of touch pass. And he seems to get the yips in pressure situations. Was late on more than a couple of balls, most notably on that last 4th down out/flat route. He's been figured out and this is what he is. A low end starter/career back up. 

Edited by pikerbkb
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23 hours ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

In 2 QB leagues would you start him now that he’s without Kittle? 

I would bench Garoppolo for now and only start him if I didn't have a decent 3rd bench qb option.  Without Kittle and Deebo Samuel, I think they're mostly going to lean on the run.

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