DerrickHenrysCleats

Mark Ingram 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Finished as the #6 PPR RB last season. 

 

His receptions were down but TDs were up. He is definitely used in the red zone though, 5 TD receptions. 

 

Rushed for over 1,000 yards and is a good bet to do it again. 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Finished as the #6 PPR RB last season. 

 

His receptions were down but TDs were up. He is definitely used in the red zone though, 5 TD receptions. 

 

Rushed for over 1,000 yards and is a good bet to do it again. 

 

Unless the Ravens draft a good back, I'll scoop Ingram up everywhere just like I did last year because people will be like, "he's 30", "he won't score as many TD's", "But Justice Hill and Gus Edwards are there", he doesn't catch passes anymore." I'll keep taking the guy that puts up RB2 or better numbers 80% of the games he plays and comes at a reasonable price every year.

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4 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Unless the Ravens draft a good back, I'll scoop Ingram up everywhere just like I did last year because people will be like, "he's 30", "he won't score as many TD's", "But Justice Hill and Gus Edwards are there", he doesn't catch passes anymore." I'll keep taking the guy that puts up RB2 or better numbers 80% of the games he plays and comes at a reasonable price every year.

Agreed, he is a very solid RB2, great floor

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Maybe Lamar runs less? No idea, people talk about Gus and Hill but Lamar carried alot as well.

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Think we can count on at least 4-6 weeks of Ingram holding onto maybe 60-70% of the committee?

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Proteus said:

Think we can count on at least 4-6 weeks of Ingram holding onto maybe 60-70% of the committee?

 

I think so- he was still pretty good last year but could also be because of the system and Lamar. It's possible him and Dobbins flip flop as the year progresses.

Depending on Ingram and Dobbins ADP, it could be very stable to invest in the entire running game (Ingram round 4, Dobbins round 6-7) and lock in the backfield. 

 

Edited by PlayTheWaivers
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I don't think anything changes with Ingram this year.

Last season, he got around 50% of the snap count. You then had Edwards getting 30%-40% and Hill getting the rest. Neither of those guys are particularly good. So I still expect Ingram to be getting around 50% with Dobbins around 25%-35% and the rest will go to Edwards and Hill.

The Ravens obviously want to run the ball. A LOT. They ran 56% of the time easily in first and had damn near 600 rushes. If we remove Jacksons rushing attempts it still leaves 420 up for grab. So if Ingram only gets half of those like he did last year you're still going to get solid RB2 production in that offense. 

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8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I don't think anything changes with Ingram this year.

Last season, he got around 50% of the snap count. You then had Edwards getting 30%-40% and Hill getting the rest. Neither of those guys are particularly good. So I still expect Ingram to be getting around 50% with Dobbins around 25%-35% and the rest will go to Edwards and Hill.

The Ravens obviously want to run the ball. A LOT. They ran 56% of the time easily in first and had damn near 600 rushes. If we remove Jacksons rushing attempts it still leaves 420 up for grab. So if Ingram only gets half of those like he did last year you're still going to get solid RB2 production in that offense. 

 

Yea I think people are way too concerned with how Dobbins affects Ingram when it makes more sense that Dobbins workload will come at the expense of Edwards and Hill since Ingram is clearly a superior talent. I still expect him to be a low-end RB2 at worst.

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Even if they keep all four backs, i can't imagine they'd have every single one active any given week.   I still think Dobbins eventually overtakes Ingram this season though.   I don't think it'll cost too much to snag both players however.   In my keeper i sold off the farm last year and have a lot of picks close together in early rounds, so i think i'm going to try this.  Either Ingram/Dobbins or Mack/Taylor.  

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43 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 I still think Dobbins eventually overtakes Ingram this season though.   

I'm convinced this is the thinking big Baltimore. Of course Dobbins still has to prove it and work hard, but if he turns out anywhere near as talented, it would make sense for them to let him take over - if not in 2020, at least in 2021. 

However, Ingram and Dobbins are not each other's main competition. The Baltimore RB1 is LJax.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm convinced this is the thinking big Baltimore. Of course Dobbins still has to prove it and work hard, but if he turns out anywhere near as talented, it would make sense for them to let him take over - if not in 2020, at least in 2021. 

However, Ingram and Dobbins are not each other's main competition. The Baltimore RB1 is LJax.

With talk out of BAL that they plan to scale back LJax’s running a bit this year, more carries will be up for grabs.  Dobbins will play for sure, but I don’t see him usurping the “primary” tailback role until 2021.  He could still return value in a tertiary role this year, though.

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28 minutes ago, BMcP said:

With talk out of BAL that they plan to scale back LJax’s running a bit this year, more carries will be up for grabs.

They certainly should, at some point. Running QBs have a shorter lifespan in the NFL, and his passing is perfectly fine to make this his primary weapon.

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm convinced this is the thinking big Baltimore. Of course Dobbins still has to prove it and work hard, but if he turns out anywhere near as talented, it would make sense for them to let him take over - if not in 2020, at least in 2021. 

However, Ingram and Dobbins are not each other's main competition. The Baltimore RB1 is LJax.


I don’t think Dobbins overtakes Ingram this season. He’ll get touches, but I expect Ingram to put up similar numbers to 2019. Possibly 2021, but as I’ve said, I don’t think Dobbins is a better talent than Ingram. Younger, yes, but not necessarily better and definitely not as experienced. I might be wrong, but we’ll see. 

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4 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


I don’t think Dobbins overtakes Ingram this season. He’ll get touches, but I expect Ingram to put up similar numbers to 2019. Possibly 2021, but as I’ve said, I don’t think Dobbins is a better talent than Ingram. Younger, yes, but not necessarily better and definitely not as experienced. I might be wrong, but we’ll see. 

Dobbins on a rookie deal>>Ingram. Teams don't use 2nd round picks on players they don't plan on playing for two years (except maybe QBs)

With that said Ingram will be a good value in 2020 until Priest Holmes 2.0 takes over. Wish he hadn't gone to the Ravens

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I don’t think Dobbins is a better talent than Ingram. Younger, yes, but not necessarily better and definitely not as experienced.

I try not to get into these disussions about talent, as people get quite heated and at some point, things like age and pay are more important than talent (not to mention work ethic, but nobody ever accused Ingram of not working hard).

In the end I think being 9 years younger beats*) having 9 years of experience. And there's the little thing that Ingram in 2021 would earn more than Dobbins in his entire 4 year contract.

Edit: *) that's a quite strong statement - let's make that "can beat". He needs to prove it first, obviously.

Edited by Boudewijn
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3 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Dobbins on a rookie deal>>Ingram. Teams don't use 2nd round picks on players they don't plan on playing for two years (except maybe QBs)

With that said Ingram will be a good value in 2020 until Priest Holmes 2.0 takes over. Wish he hadn't gone to the Ravens

That’s all the more reason to use the crap out of Ingram this year. It’s the last year on his contract then they can hand the reigns over to Dobbins. 
 

i believe the ravens will dial back Lamar’s running and then unleash him in the playoffs. So Ingram & Dobbins have value. But mark will 100% get his touches 

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15 minutes ago, Breesus said:

That’s all the more reason to use the crap out of Ingram this year. It’s the last year on his contract then they can hand the reigns over to Dobbins. 
 

i believe the ravens will dial back Lamar’s running and then unleash him in the playoffs. So Ingram & Dobbins have value. But mark will 100% get his touches 

Agreed. I think people factor in future prognostications too much in redraft. Same for a player like Fournette for 2020.

Ingram will be a really good value ADP wise

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I love Dobbins as a player, traded whatever I could to get him on my dynasty teams.  I agree with the notion however that at least this year will still be Ingram's backfield, with Dobbins taking the Gus Edwards role from last season.  Ingram is under contract until 2022, but the Ravens can save $5mm next off-season by letting him go.  Not sure if they will or not - Baltimore hasn't ever been the HUGE FA spender, and Jackson is still on his rookie deal.  So perhaps they keep him for 2 more years to really push the window while the QB is on a rookie deal?  Ingram and Dobbins would be a nasty pair if they stayed together for more than 1 year, in the same mold as Williams/Stewart back in the day.

But for this year, the thing that worries me about Ingram is TD regression.  The dude had 15 TDs last season.  Especially in the passing game, where had had 5 TD grabs.  

If he scores 10 TDs this year, that's still a solid season, but now he loses 30 points off his totals.  Last year that would still put him at RB11, but you have guys behind him like Barkley, Kamara, Jacobs who missed games and would be ahead of Ingram.  Plus others emerging this year like Drake, Sanders, and possibly a guy like Mixon with a better offense.  Still a big fan of Ingram for re-draft this season, but I think he finishes as a mid-high RB2.  

Now with that said, FantasyPros currently has him ranked as RB23, and ADP on FCC is RB20.  Both of those are criminally under-valued, and I think he is a no-brainer at those levels.  Even if Ingram falls in the TD department, and ALL of those guys I mentioned above pass him this year, he would still finish at RB17, which I think is absolute floor/worst case scenario (barring health).  I hope his ranking/ADP stays in the early-mid 20's - he's a steal at that price.  Come draft day if he's in the 12-18 range, that might need a little more thought.  

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2 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

I love Dobbins as a player, traded whatever I could to get him on my dynasty teams.  I agree with the notion however that at least this year will still be Ingram's backfield, with Dobbins taking the Gus Edwards role from last season.  Ingram is under contract until 2022, but the Ravens can save $5mm next off-season by letting him go.  Not sure if they will or not - Baltimore hasn't ever been the HUGE FA spender, and Jackson is still on his rookie deal.  So perhaps they keep him for 2 more years to really push the window while the QB is on a rookie deal?  Ingram and Dobbins would be a nasty pair if they stayed together for more than 1 year, in the same mold as Williams/Stewart back in the day.

But for this year, the thing that worries me about Ingram is TD regression.  The dude had 15 TDs last season.  Especially in the passing game, where had had 5 TD grabs.  

If he scores 10 TDs this year, that's still a solid season, but now he loses 30 points off his totals.  Last year that would still put him at RB11, but you have guys behind him like Barkley, Kamara, Jacobs who missed games and would be ahead of Ingram.  Plus others emerging this year like Drake, Sanders, and possibly a guy like Mixon with a better offense.  Still a big fan of Ingram for re-draft this season, but I think he finishes as a mid-high RB2.  

Now with that said, FantasyPros currently has him ranked as RB23, and ADP on FCC is RB20.  Both of those are criminally under-valued, and I think he is a no-brainer at those levels.  Even if Ingram falls in the TD department, and ALL of those guys I mentioned above pass him this year, he would still finish at RB17, which I think is absolute floor/worst case scenario (barring health).  I hope his ranking/ADP stays in the early-mid 20's - he's a steal at that price.  Come draft day if he's in the 12-18 range, that might need a little more thought.  

 

Good post.

 

Question- what's wrong with buying the entire backfield for 2020? It's a 4th and a 7th rounder for probably guaranteed RB2 production all year. Isn't that worth the price of admission, or are you betting too much on the Ravens sustaining, instead of crazy regression?

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8 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Good post.

 

Question- what's wrong with buying the entire backfield for 2020? It's a 4th and a 7th rounder for probably guaranteed RB2 production all year. Isn't that worth the price of admission, or are you betting too much on the Ravens sustaining, instead of crazy regression?

Nothing wrong with that at all.

 

The only problem I see with that strategy is similar to what we used to deal with regarding the Titans when Murray and Henry were there together.  Both guys would be dominant RB1s if given the whole backfield to themselves, but never did.  For example, let's assume the Ravens don't fall off one bit and replicate their rushing numbers from last year.  And let's say we give Dobbins EVERYTHING outside of Ingram.  That would give Dobbins roughly 1,000 yards, 4 TDs, 15 catches and 115 yards.  That gives Dobbins 150 points in PPR and 143 in 0.5 PPR.  That would have landed him at RB32 and RB29 respectively.  And again, that's assuming no drop off for the Ravens AND Dobbins gets every single touch outside of Ingram.  Once we factor in touches for Edwards and Hill, that number gets lower.  Once we factor in the Ravens might not repeat the greatest rushing output in the history of the NFL, that number might get worse.  So if we factor in a few touches for Edwards and Hill here and there, plus a bit more normal rushing output, that would probably put Dobbins in the RB3 conversation.

Now with that said, if Ingram gets hurt, Dobbins becomes a plug and play RB1.  If both are healthy all year, you probably end up with a high end RB2 + an RB3.  And it caps the overall ceiling of your team, given both guys not only play for the same team, but also the same position.  

Takings Dobbins in the 7th means you're taking him somewhere between picks 72-84 in a 12 teamer (if my math checks out).  Guys being taken in that range include Deebo Samuel, Jarvis Landry, Evan Engram, Cam Akers, Tyler Boyd, Derrius Guice, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Jordan Howard, Marvin Jones, and many others.  It would be tough to take a back-up RB who MIGHT finish in the RB3 range over these players who look to be immediate contributors to help your fantasy team.  

Now for what it's worth FCC ADP has him in the 13th round right now, and FantasyPros has him ranked #102 overall, which would be a pick in the 9th round, so much easier to pay the price there.  The FCC ADP is way off, and I imagine as we get closer to the season, Dobbins will probably go in the 6-7 round range, similar to where Derrick Henry was going the few years he played with Murray.  And at that price, it seems a bit expensive for a handcuff/RB3.  For reference, Gus Edwards was RB50 through Week 16 last year in 0.5 PPR on the most dynamic running team in history.  

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Posted (edited)

I agree TD regression is likely, however, the ravens added good pieces to an already up & coming defense. I expect a top 10 defense married to a top 5 running game (being conservative). Add that with the Ravens wanting to slow down on Lamar’s touches a little bit, I expect Ingram to have a good amount of opportunity. 

I don’t expect 15 Td’s, but I can 10-13 on this offense. Ingram also missed 1 1/2 games last year I believe, not a big hit but a hit non the less. 

Edited by Breesus

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Dobbins on a rookie deal>>Ingram. Teams don't use 2nd round picks on players they don't plan on playing for two years (except maybe QBs)

With that said Ingram will be a good value in 2020 until Priest Holmes 2.0 takes over. Wish he hadn't gone to the Ravens

 

I didn't say they don't plan on playing Dobbins for two years. I said possibly 2021, which would mean sitting him behind Ingram for one season. 

 

10 hours ago, Breesus said:

That’s all the more reason to use the crap out of Ingram this year. It’s the last year on his contract then they can hand the reigns over to Dobbins. 
 

i believe the ravens will dial back Lamar’s running and then unleash him in the playoffs. So Ingram & Dobbins have value. But mark will 100% get his touches 

 

It's not Ingram's last year...he technically has two years left on his deal. However, he likely has one year left in Baltimore lol. 

 

14 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I try not to get into these disussions about talent, as people get quite heated and at some point, things like age and pay are more important than talent (not to mention work ethic, but nobody ever accused Ingram of not working hard).

In the end I think being 9 years younger beats*) having 9 years of experience. And there's the little thing that Ingram in 2021 would earn more than Dobbins in his entire 4 year contract.

Edit: *) that's a quite strong statement - let's make that "can beat". He needs to prove it first, obviously.

 

I get what you mean about talent, but I won't get heated over that. I'm not a scout, so I just go by what I see with my layman's eyes. When I look at Dobbins, I don't see a better RB just yet, especially as a rookie. And I'm not even convinced Dobbins has a better career than Ingram has had. As you said, he needs to prove it, and that's the case with any rookie RB (including this forum's current favorite hype star, CEH). 

I'd disagree that Dobbins being 9yrs younger is better than 9yrs experience THIS season. Ingram, in 2019, was still a very productive back who didn't really show signs of slowing down. So it's not like he was looking like a guy on his last legs. Eventually (probably 2021), Dobbins being 9yrs younger will be a factor, but I don't think it'll be 2020. 

As for what Ingram earns in 2021, I'm not sure what that has to do with this year. I'm discussing 2020, not 2021. Not trying to sound rude, lol...just the second person to mention th 2021 season in quoting me. I guess because I said "possibly 2021"? I said that because Dobbins has to prove in 2020 that he's capable of taking the reins from Ingram in 2021 before they hand them over to him. If he struggles as a rookie, we may possibly see Ingram still in Baltimore in 2021...possibly, lol. 

Edited by Flyman75

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11 hours ago, Breesus said:

That’s all the more reason to use the crap out of Ingram this year. It’s the last year on his contract then they can hand the reigns over to Dobbins. 
 

i believe the ravens will dial back Lamar’s running and then unleash him in the playoffs. So Ingram & Dobbins have value. But mark will 100% get his touches 

Ah my mistake Ingram has 1 year guaranteed and a team option.

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Mark Ingram is still the #1 RB in the crowded backfield, but Lamar if the opportunity is there will still use his legs. That part of his game isn't going away. I also think the addition of Dobbins will eventually take a few carries away from Ingram. They didn't draft Dobbins for nothing. Regardless the Ravens are going to be a powerhouse backfield.

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1 hour ago, Jess said:

Mark Ingram is still the #1 RB in the crowded backfield, but Lamar if the opportunity is there will still use his legs. That part of his game isn't going away. I also think the addition of Dobbins will eventually take a few carries away from Ingram. They didn't draft Dobbins for nothing. Regardless the Ravens are going to be a powerhouse backfield.

They would be smart to work Dobbins in to take the load off. He did well in tandem with Kamara. More or less work the rookie in and take a load off and give Ingram the important pass pro plays and goal line work. I was impressed with how much a team player Ingram was with having Kamara as an explosive new rb. 

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