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Christian McCaffrey 2020 Outlook

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1 minute ago, cgu112 said:


this is insane. There are a million startable wrs.   Cmc averaged 7 more ppg last year than any rb. And you would hesitate to give up terry mclaurin or dk metcalf for him?     You have to have at least 2 other wrs who can give you similar production. Wait it out a month.  Insanity

That's why I can see both sides.

But what I'm seeing thrown around above by (presumably) CMC owners is extremely hopeful.

You want me to give up a WR1/2 or RB1/2 level player for a guy who's going to miss 40-50% of my remaining schedule?  And who might come back at full strength, but also might come back and only put up 70% of his production and stands a decent chance of aggravating his injury?

That's way to big a gamble for me.  If I'm 2-0 now, I'm looking at 4-2 when CMC returns as best I can hope for, with an equal possibility of actually being 2-6 when he comes back.  Because, remember, I just gave up a significant portion of my point production to get him.

If you can get what you expect for him, more power to you.  But your trade partner is going to be making a huge gamble.  A much bigger gamble than you're taking on.

Best of luck to you.

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11 minutes ago, cgu112 said:


this is insane. There are a million startable wrs.   Cmc averaged 7 more ppg last year than any rb. And you would hesitate to give up terry mclaurin or dk metcalf for him?     You have to have at least 2 other wrs who can give you similar production. Wait it out a month.  Insanity

If I could guarantee that CMC would return to full production upon return I'd agree with you completely.

What happens when he comes back and runs slow out the gate? Then he's untradeable. And you just waited a month or more to unload him.

Also depends on league size, I play in a 14 teamers and DK or McLaurin is a consistent start in a lineup that now has a giant hole in it. But I am still on the fence about trading him too.

One thing is for sure, last year's production ain't happening this year so it's time to reset the market on him.

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17 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

If I could guarantee that CMC would return to full production upon return I'd agree with you completely.

What happens when he comes back and runs slow out the gate? Then he's untradeable. And you just waited a month or more to unload him.

Also depends on league size, I play in a 14 teamers and DK or McLaurin is a consistent start in a lineup that now has a giant hole in it. But I am still on the fence about trading him too.

One thing is for sure, last year's production ain't happening this year so it's time to reset the market on him.


both good points. In willing to take the risk on your first point (don't want to even say it lol). And league size is certainly a factor. I was going to mention that at the end too. 

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20 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

That's why I can see both sides.

But what I'm seeing thrown around above by (presumably) CMC owners is extremely hopeful.

You want me to give up a WR1/2 or RB1/2 level player for a guy who's going to miss 40-50% of my remaining schedule?  And who might come back at full strength, but also might come back and only put up 70% of his production and stands a decent chance of aggravating his injury?

That's way to big a gamble for me.  If I'm 2-0 now, I'm looking at 4-2 when CMC returns as best I can hope for, with an equal possibility of actually being 2-6 when he comes back.  Because, remember, I just gave up a significant portion of my point production to get him.

If you can get what you expect for him, more power to you.  But your trade partner is going to be making a huge gamble.  A much bigger gamble than you're taking on.

Best of luck to you.


Im in a 10 team league so maybe thats slanting my viewpoint. I didn't say I expect someone to give a wr1 or rb1 for him but thats what I would want in return.  And I def wouldnt take mclaurin. In other words a deal will be tough. 
 

The goal is to win.  Its unlikely the rest of your roster is good enough that swapping out the #1 pick for mid level wr2s will put you over the top.   So imo just hope cmc comes back in 4 weeks and is more or less himself when he returns. 

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6 minutes ago, cgu112 said:


Im in a 10 team league so maybe thats slanting my viewpoint. I didn't say I expect someone to give a wr1 or rb1 for him but thats what I would want in return.  And I def wouldnt take mclaurin. In other words a deal will be tough. 
 

The goal is to win.  Its unlikely the rest of your roster is good enough that swapping out the #1 pick for mid level wr2s will put you over the top.   So imo just hope cmc comes back in 4 weeks and is more or less himself when he returns. 

What if you were in a say, 20 teamer, how would that differ?

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11 minutes ago, cgu112 said:


Im in a 10 team league so maybe thats slanting my viewpoint. I didn't say I expect someone to give a wr1 or rb1 for him but thats what I would want in return.  And I def wouldnt take mclaurin. In other words a deal will be tough. 
 

The goal is to win.  Its unlikely the rest of your roster is good enough that swapping out the #1 pick for mid level wr2s will put you over the top.   So imo just hope cmc comes back in 4 weeks and is more or less himself when he returns. 

Yea, it's gonna be real hard to make a deal.

Your best return would come from someone who just nailed all their picks, and has good assets on the bench.

In one league, I have Drake, Mostert, Taylor, and Robinson at RB.  Can only play 3 of them at a time.  That's the kind of team you'd be looking for.  In my case, you could maybe get one of them in a straight up swap.

Unfortunately, with all the injuries this week, you're a lot less likely to find someone who has that kind of depth - and the price of any healthy RB is at about it's peak.

Edit: and thinking about my example above, I'd probably try to extract an upgrade at another position as well - in this case WR

Edited by SadFaceHappy
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9 minutes ago, mjb said:

What if you were in a say, 20 teamer, how would that differ?

Then you need depth and more playable guys. So if you can get one or especially two every week starters you do it.   But ive never played in a league that big but that would be the thought process. 

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15 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Yea, it's gonna be real hard to make a deal.

Your best return would come from someone who just nailed all their picks, and has good assets on the bench.

In one league, I have Drake, Mostert, Taylor, and Robinson at RB.  Can only play 3 of them at a time.  That's the kind of team you'd be looking for.  In my case, you could maybe get one of them in a straight up swap.

Unfortunately, with all the injuries this week, you're a lot less likely to find someone who has that kind of depth - and the price of any healthy RB is at about it's peak.

Edit: and thinking about my example above, I'd probably try to extract an upgrade at another position as well - in this case WR


yeah. I was thinking low end rb1 at a minimum. But again im in a smaller league so depth isnt as big of an issue (fingers crossed).   That said every other team is really good too so I just lost line 15-20 pts a week assuming the replacement player (a flex) gives me 10-15 a week.  Well see.  
 

if you were offered cmc for drake or taylor would you accept? (Either or both)

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7 minutes ago, cgu112 said:


yeah. I was thinking low end rb1 at a minimum. But again im in a smaller league so depth isnt as big of an issue (fingers crossed).   That said every other team is really good too so I just lost line 15-20 pts a week assuming the replacement player (a flex) gives me 10-15 a week.  Well see.  
 

if you were offered cmc for drake or taylor would you accept? (Either or both)

Not straight up.

I'd need an upgrade somewhere else too.  Honestly, I'd probably need it for any of the 4.  But for Drake or Taylor, I'd ask for like a DJ Moore or Diontae Johnson in addition, sending back someone like Fuller or Cooks at most.

CMC (and Barkley) owners are probably in a pretty desperate spot, so any trade partner should be expecting to maximize value.  Ultimately, if you're not willing to overpay you're just going to have to hang on to him and patch something together, hoping for the best.

But it certainly doesn't hurt to try.  Throw some offers out there and see if you get any bites. Just would advise that you try to start out with realistic expectations. Henry, Kamara, Jacobs, Zeke, Cook are non-starters without extremely significant additions.  Probably throw CEH, Taylor, and A Jones in there too.

Montgomery, Robinson, DJ, Gurley, Fournette, Conner are more realistic targets.

And see if Damien Harris is a free agent in your league.  Have a feeling he's gonna take over in NE when he gets off IR week 4.

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37 minutes ago, cgu112 said:


yeah. I was thinking low end rb1 at a minimum. But again im in a smaller league so depth isnt as big of an issue (fingers crossed).   That said every other team is really good too so I just lost line 15-20 pts a week assuming the replacement player (a flex) gives me 10-15 a week.  Well see.  
 

if you were offered cmc for drake or taylor would you accept? (Either or both)

 

I wouldn't (12 teamer) bc that leaves a hole in my lineup and knowing that you need someone to replace the points I would be at an advantage and would want either another good player or have you ask for two lesser players from my roster in return. Remember if my roster is intact I wouldn't need the trade and I'm gambling on cmc returning to form in the latter half of the series. Hard to overcome that 

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3 minutes ago, BeastOfTheLeast said:

 

I wouldn't (12 teamer) bc that leaves a hole in my lineup and knowing that you need someone to replace the points I would be at an advantage and would want either another good player or have you ask for two lesser players from my roster in return. Remember if my roster is intact I wouldn't need the trade and I'm gambling on cmc returning to form in the latter half of the series. Hard to overcome that 

Its a high ankle sprain, dont be so sure cmc even comes back to his rb1 status with how bad this team looks. 4 weeks minimum and when he returns he isnt going to be 100% til maybe week 9 or 10. I wouldnt say its out of the realm of possibilities to trade him for a JT, an A Jones, a WR1 and a piece. High ankle sprains are a killer 

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1 minute ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Its a high ankle sprain, dont be so sure cmc even comes back to his rb1 status with how bad this team looks. 4 weeks minimum and when he returns he isnt going to be 100% til maybe week 9 or 10. I wouldnt say its out of the realm of possibilities to trade him for a JT, an A Jones, a WR1 and a piece. High ankle sprains are a killer 

 

No way I'm giving those guys up for a few weeks of prime cmc while missing even more weeks of good production from Jones, jt, wr1s. Cmc owners are at a big disadvantage in most trade scenarios right now 

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Just now, BeastOfTheLeast said:

 

No way I'm giving those guys up for a few weeks of prime cmc while missing even more weeks of good production from Jones, jt, wr1s. Cmc owners are at a big disadvantage in most trade scenarios right now 

Thats what im saying, if I were a CMC owner and could get good or great value back im doing it. Same can be said for MT, if you get a 1st rounder back take the deal

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17 hours ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Its a high ankle sprain, dont be so sure cmc even comes back to his rb1 status with how bad this team looks. 4 weeks minimum and when he returns he isnt going to be 100% til maybe week 9 or 10. I wouldnt say its out of the realm of possibilities to trade him for a JT, an A Jones, a WR1 and a piece. High ankle sprains are a killer 

I would say that is out of the realm of possibilities unless you're in a dynasty league. I just moved him for Juju and I think that's a great value. Saquon came back after 3 weeks last year and wasn't even a top 20 rb, Kamara played all season last year and was barely startable. You're talking about a guy that won't come back until week 8 unless he's lucky.

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12 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

I would say that is out of the realm of possibilities unless you're in a dynasty league. I just moved him for Juju and I think that's a great value. Saquon came back after 3 weeks last year and wasn't even a top 20 rb, Kamara played all season last year and was barely startable. You're talking about a guy that won't come back until week 8 unless he's lucky.

Cmc for juju is the dumbest trade Ive ever seen. First Fantasy season?

 

i am sad that there are no Managers like that in my leage

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Not sure it's possible, but I'd be pretty tempted if I could flip him for a top QB in a 2-QB league.

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I am not making anyone else win the league by trading them CMC. Imagine getting into the playoffs just to get knocked out by the guy who starts a 90-100% healthy CMC in week 14...

 

I'd rather just miss the playoffs then lol 😁

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24 minutes ago, devilfish said:

Cmc for juju is the dumbest trade Ive ever seen. First Fantasy season?

 

i am sad that there are no Managers like that in my leage

I was just offered Carson and i still haven’t hit the accept button. juju????

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2 minutes ago, LAeagle said:

I was just offered Carson and i still haven’t hit the accept button. juju????


even for carson i would reject...

 

juju for cmc? Clown Show 

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30 minutes ago, devilfish said:

Cmc for juju is the dumbest trade Ive ever seen. First Fantasy season?

 

i am sad that there are no Managers like that in my leage

I've been playing for 20 years. Doesn't sound like you know anything about a high ankle sprain and that you can't do math and realize what percentage of a season 4-6 weeks is.

Go ahead and offer a trade for more than Juju and see how dumb your other league mates are not accepting.

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Those looking for context into value: In a redraft I was able to move cmc and gaskins for Julio and Josh Kelly. To me Julio for a full year outweighs cmc for the latter part of the year. Many other factors likely go into the decision—including team makeup on both ends (I have a strong team already). 

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Assuming it's a low grade sprain. I like the odds of McCaffrey beating all the projections. I think he's a hold depending on team needs. I have Conner, Fournett, Robinson, Dobbins and Moss. Soo I think I'll just weather the storm

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