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Christian McCaffrey 2020 Outlook

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23 minutes ago, roughnecker101 said:

Assuming it's a low grade sprain. I like the odds of McCaffrey beating all the projections. I think he's a hold depending on team needs. I have Conner, Fournett, Robinson, Dobbins and Moss. Soo I think I'll just weather the storm

Im with you. I dont understand people rushing to trade him for mid-low end wr2s. Youre not even addressing ur rb need and there are a ton of playable wrs. 

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I'm going down with the ship. No way in hell am I trading him just to see him potentially on a championship roster and chances are pretty good whoever acquired him will be strong in the playoffs. I'd rather miss the playoffs than see a championship team win it with my number 1 overall pick especially if I sold him at a discount.

If you're not in the championship or bust mentality, you can trade him but I don't suggest doing it now. You're getting the lowest possible value out of him right now as well. You can potentially wait a few weeks because there's no way anyone is mathematically out of the playoffs this early so no need to panic sell just yet on CMC. If by week 4 you're 1-3 or 0-4, then I can see the logic in trying to move the number 1 player. There is also the possibility he comes back earlier since the sprain didn't knock him out of the game immediately. Waiting on the trade gives you more clarity on his availability projections.

Edited by WaiverLooter
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3 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

I'm going down with the ship. No way in hell am I trading him just to see him potentially on a championship roster and chances are pretty good whoever acquired him will be strong in the playoffs. I'd rather miss the playoffs than see a championship team win it with my number 1 overall pick especially if I sold him at a discount.

If you're not in the championship or bust mentality, you can trade him but I don't suggest doing it now. You're getting the lowest possible value out of him right now as well. You can potentially wait a few weeks because there's no way anyone is mathematically out of the playoffs this early so no need to panic sell just yet on CMC. If by week 4 you're 1-3 or 0-4, then I can see the logic in trying to move the number 1 player. There is also the possibility he comes back earlier since the sprain didn't knock him out of the game immediately. Waiting on the trade gives you more clarity on his availability projections.


This 100%. I didnt want to bash good players but to put it bluntly terry mclaurin isnt winning u a championship.  Rather take the chance cmc comes back And ur good for the playoffs.  He's projected to still play ~5 or so regular season games so its not like hes coming back during the playoffs.  Trading for a solid wr2 will increase ur odds of making the playoffs but barely moves the needle in regards to winning it all.  

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Just traded him and McClaurin away for Zeke and Shenault. 12 Team PPR 

I worry that CMC will be hampered even when he does return like Barkely/Kamara were. 

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17 minutes ago, cgu112 said:

Im with you. I dont understand people rushing to trade him for mid-low end wr2s. Youre not even addressing ur rb need and there are a ton of playable wrs. 

If you're in a 14 team league there aren't plenty of playable WRs. Definitely not a lot of high end WR2s.

As far as McCaffrey's ability to bounce back to 100 percent, I don't see the evidence that he will. Take a look at the injury analysis from 20 year orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jesse Morse. He wants no part of McCaffrey for the rest of the year. I definitely trust his opinion on ankle injuries over some of the angry value stuffers on this thread.

 

If you're in a league where you can absolutely fleece someone (like the guy posting above me just did with Zeke) by all means try to get some of that. In my leagues nobody is going to bite for that knowing that they get at best 5 or 6 weeks of low end RB1 production with the possibility of 3 or 4 weeks of low end RB2 production only after you're out of the playoff hunt. If you play in a 10-teamer, yeah maybe there's enough depth for everyone that you can afford to wait and see.

As far as RB value back is concerned, this is why you go with an RB robust strategy. Because you can always trade RBs for WRs, even injured ones.

Edited by pushaZ
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Anyone else read this on Rotoworld's Week 3 Waiver Wire column?

"There's also the chance the 0-2 Panthers are outright #bad over the next month, allowing coach Matt Rhule to purposely extend McCaffrey's return with frustrating "week to week" updates until it's clear he won't return at all.

"Until it's clear he won't return at all" ??? WTF is this dude smoking? Is he hinting at the fact that this is going to turn into an AJ Green situation?

 

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2 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

Anyone else read this on Rotoworld's Week 3 Waiver Wire column?

"There's also the chance the 0-2 Panthers are outright #bad over the next month, allowing coach Matt Rhule to purposely extend McCaffrey's return with frustrating "week to week" updates until it's clear he won't return at all.

"Until it's clear he won't return at all" ??? WTF is this dude smoking? Is he hinting at the fact that this is going to turn into an AJ Green situation?

 

 

He's implying they may purposefully tank and holding CMC outs helps to that end.

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I really doubt CMC doesn’t come back to play, he lives for this game. I agree he won’t be 100% till later in the season though, my team is pretty deep so I’ll probably just hold on to him. If you aren’t that deep and can’t wait it out, I’d try to move him ASAP 

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20 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

I'm going down with the ship. No way in hell am I trading him just to see him potentially on a championship roster and chances are pretty good whoever acquired him will be strong in the playoffs. I'd rather miss the playoffs than see a championship team win it with my number 1 overall pick especially if I sold him at a discount.

If you're not in the championship or bust mentality, you can trade him but I don't suggest doing it now. You're getting the lowest possible value out of him right now as well. You can potentially wait a few weeks because there's no way anyone is mathematically out of the playoffs this early so no need to panic sell just yet on CMC. If by week 4 you're 1-3 or 0-4, then I can see the logic in trying to move the number 1 player. There is also the possibility he comes back earlier since the sprain didn't knock him out of the game immediately. Waiting on the trade gives you more clarity on his availability projections.

At 0-4 your odds of making the playoffs are about 5 percent. Why would you go "down with the ship" so early in the season?

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3 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

Anyone else read this on Rotoworld's Week 3 Waiver Wire column?

"There's also the chance the 0-2 Panthers are outright #bad over the next month, allowing coach Matt Rhule to purposely extend McCaffrey's return with frustrating "week to week" updates until it's clear he won't return at all.

"Until it's clear he won't return at all" ??? WTF is this dude smoking? Is he hinting at the fact that this is going to turn into an AJ Green situation?

 


This is interesting because with no fans and ticket sales, ownership probably doesn’t need to appeal to fans this season as much.

However, I don’t think this happens for 2 reasons. 

1. I don’t think any team is going to sit out their star players when they’re still mathematically alive in the hunt for playoffs. This division is wide open with question marks about the age of Brady and Brees. Atlanta’s defense and special teams is killing them right now.

2. Knowing what we know about McCaffrey and how much of a competitor he is, I doubt he is going to sit for any longer than is necessary.

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31 minutes ago, wong said:

Just traded him and McClaurin away for Zeke and Shenault. 12 Team PPR 

I worry that CMC will be hampered even when he does return like Barkely/Kamara were. 

That’s a steal!!

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21 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

If you're in a 14 team league there aren't plenty of playable WRs. Definitely not a lot of high end WR2s.

As far as McCaffrey's ability to bounce back to 100 percent, I don't see the evidence that he will. Take a look at the injury analysis from 20 year orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jesse Morse. He wants no part of McCaffrey for the rest of the year. I definitely trust his opinion on ankle injuries over some of the angry value stuffers on this thread.

 

If you're in a league where you can absolutely fleece someone (like the guy posting above me just did with Zeke) by all means try to get some of that. In my leagues nobody is going to bite for that knowing that they get at best 5 or 6 weeks of low end RB1 production with the possibility of 3 or 4 weeks of low end RB2 production only after you're out of the playoff hunt. If you play in a 10-teamer, yeah maybe there's enough depth for everyone that you can afford to wait and see.

As far as RB value back is concerned, this is why you go with an RB robust strategy. Because you can always trade RBs for WRs, even injured ones.

Im in a 14 team league and my wrs are: adams, chark, hollywood, jeudy, reagor and aiyuk.  My rbs are mixon, taylor, ingram, moss and royce freeman (lol). Qb is allen and hock and logan thomas tes.   Solid team drafting from the 13 spot but nothing special.    Swap cmc for mixon and say hes out for a month.  I don't see how adding mclaurin or kupp or whoever is significantly altering my season outlook.  Unless you think cmc is just done for the year. 

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Are all high ankle sprains created equal? Is the Kamara and Barkley the only situation we can compare this to? If there is a longer history where players never return to form in the same season following this type of injury then you have to agree with @pushaZ is right by shipping CMC out. While i do agree he could’ve gotten more probably but I think he’s right about the idea that it’s better for all of us CMC owners to take what we can get.

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33 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

At 0-4 your odds of making the playoffs are about 5 percent. Why would you go "down with the ship" so early in the season?

 

In 4 out of 6 years in my leagues, the record to make 6th seed has been 6-7. In the remaining 2 years, it's 7-6.

Going 6-3 in the final 9 games is 25% probability. This is the same odds as winning 2 playoff games in a row, very doable.

Going 7-2 is 9%.

These odds are also assuming the worst possible result (0-4) for the first 4 games, which only a small percentage of owners face.

This 5% number seems made up to me.

Edited by WaiverLooter
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17 minutes ago, LAeagle said:

Are all high ankle sprains created equal? Is the Kamara and Barkley the only situation we can compare this to? If there is a longer history where players never return to form in the same season following this type of injury then you have to agree with @pushaZ is right by shipping CMC out. While i do agree he could’ve gotten more probably but I think he’s right about the idea that it’s better for all of us CMC owners to take what we can get.


saquon had to be helped off the field (cmc scored a td on his) and had what appeared to be a much worse sprain (his timeline was 6-8 weeks) and he came back after 3 weeks. So really early.  He didnt kick it into gear until the last 2 or 3 weeks but he was still good when he came back.  Its hard to tell with him because he has a lot of dud games even when healthy.  And saquon won people championships with a monster 40+ pointer champ week.  Kamara also had a knee issue (mcl I think) so its unclear how much of his struggles were from the ankle.  Tevin coleman also came back in 3 weeks last year and was fine right out of the gate. I have no idea how comparable the severity of cmcs sprain is to kamara and coleman tho. 

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I think the scoring variance of one player is being overblown. This isn’t baseball where we’re playing roto. We also have a weekly opponent.

 

for example, CMC went off week 1 and I still lost. I won by 50+ this week and still would have won without him.

 

I say that because it really comes down to your opponents and luck. If we conservatively say CMC would net us 20 ppg (obviously some weeks he’d blowup for 30 to win you a week, but we’re talking average) and our replacement for him gets us 10 ppg, realistically how many games during a 4-6 week period will be decided by 10 points? 
 

It becomes a nit picky argument because there’s no way to predict how your Roser will perform on a weekly basis. I suppose you could lose six weeks in a row by a half a dozen points, but this year especially with injuries it seems more likely to mix in some boom/bust weeks along the way. 

Edited by jimithing11
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Every injury is different and people heal at different rates. Terrell Owens broke his leg and tore a ligament in his ankle. Seven weeks later he played well in the Superbowl. Soo it's all just speculation

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1 hour ago, cgu112 said:


saquon had to be helped off the field (cmc scored a td on his) and had what appeared to be a much worse sprain (his timeline was 6-8 weeks) and he came back after 3 weeks. So really early.  He didnt kick it into gear until the last 2 or 3 weeks but he was still good when he came back.  Its hard to tell with him because he has a lot of dud games even when healthy.  And saquon won people championships with a monster 40+ pointer champ week.  Kamara also had a knee issue (mcl I think) so its unclear how much of his struggles were from the ankle.  Tevin coleman also came back in 3 weeks last year and was fine right out of the gate. I have no idea how comparable the severity of cmcs sprain is to kamara and coleman tho. 

Yeah kamara had a torn mcl he was playing through that was what hurt his performance. Side note kamara us tough as **** playing with a torn mcl. Respect

Edited by Everynameistaken

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I was thinking about asking CMC owner if he wants to swap him for Kittle. I also have Higbee and Schulz. High risk, high reward move.

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Just now, zert2 said:

I was thinking about asking CMC owner if he wants to swap him for Kittle. I also have Higbee and Schulz. High risk, high reward move.

 

that sounds like a rip off. If you have that many viable TEs, it's either a shallow league and everybody has a viable one. If it's not a shallow league a good TE does not make you forget the #1 pick. I hope CMC is back sooner or later and even a hurt CMC is worth way more than a fit Kittle (or in this case still hurt Kittle). If you can pull that off, do it immediately, but you then should question your league.

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46 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

 

that sounds like a rip off. If you have that many viable TEs, it's either a shallow league and everybody has a viable one. If it's not a shallow league a good TE does not make you forget the #1 pick. I hope CMC is back sooner or later and even a hurt CMC is worth way more than a fit Kittle (or in this case still hurt Kittle). If you can pull that off, do it immediately, but you then should question your league.

12 teams league with 8 bench spots. Not a shallow league, but the guy that has CMC is pretty weak at TE. I doubt he'll take the deal, but thought might be worth trying.

There's still plenty of risk, high ankle sprains are not easy.

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13 hours ago, Everynameistaken said:

Yeah kamara had a torn mcl he was playing through that was what hurt his performance. Side note kamara us tough as **** playing with a torn mcl. Respect

I owned Kamara last year, didn't remember he was dealing with a torn MCL too....I was so stocked to own him last year but obviously with the injuries it killed his value. Now this year I have CMC and again high ankle sprain. Hopefully he comes back soon and can produce.

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