FantasyGuru24

Christian McCaffrey 2020 Outlook

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27 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Kid got PAID.  Good for him!

Yes he did!

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Panthers signed RB Christian McCaffrey to a four-year contract extension through 2025. 

Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, the deal is worth $16 million per year, making McCaffrey the highest-paid running back in NFL history. It was an inauspicious time for CMC's contract to come due after a recent spate of running back deal mega-busts, but McCaffrey is no ordinary runner, and he is still two months shy of his 24th birthday. He has also never missed a game with injury. That combination of youth, durability and unique skill-set always made McCaffrey more likely to get paid than most. It is surprising the deal was finalized at this moment in time, but the Panthers clearly wanted to make a commitment to their offensive engine as they embark on a reset. McCaffrey is coming off a campaign where he became just the third player in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He has averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 8.3 yards per reception for his career. Especially considering the absurd amount of passes he catches for a running back, that second number is extra impressive. Even with Cam Newton out and Teddy Bridgewater in, CMC has the strongest claim to No. 1 overall status in 2020. 

Apr 13, 2020, 4:05 PM ET

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Let’s go Mama , we made it !! 
 
Kid is a god ... none like him. Well deserved & entering his prime . By the time this contract ends he’ll still be 28 , imagine that . Him and Saquon are the only backs who deserve this kinda money , imho . You need to be absolutely ELITE, in both the run & pass. 

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He’s the definition of an offensive weapon. Elite rb while being an elite receiver. Worth every penny he got.

As a saints fan it sucks we have to play against him another 4-5 years at least 

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9 hours ago, RunCMC said:

Let’s go Mama , we made it !! 
 
Kid is a god ... none like him. Well deserved & entering his prime . By the time this contract ends he’ll still be 28 , imagine that . Him and Saquon are the only backs who deserve this kinda money , imho . You need to be absolutely ELITE, in both the run & pass. 

I’m sorry but not a single back deserves that kind of money. RBs enter their prime the second they step on the field. Good that he got payed but it just makes no sense from the Panthers perspective.

The only time it would ever make sense to fork over a back that much money is if you are a contender with a truly elite defense and are dependent on running the ball due to not having an elite QB. 

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I’m sorry but not a single back deserves that kind of money. RBs enter their prime the second they step on the field. Good that he got payed but it just makes no sense from the Panthers perspective.

The only time it would ever make sense to fork over a back that much money is if you are a contender with a truly elite defense and are dependent on running the ball due to not having an elite QB. 

Although, the Panthers have lost weapons were also assuming they will just flat out stink. Maybe Rhule and the front offense know what they're doing. It seems as if the Panthers have improved the offense some what. The draft is coming up and they have a top 10 pick. CMAC is a rb, but he does it all. Panthers could compete this year. Teddy manages the game well. Their biggest loss was Luke, which is tremendous and can't be replaced. As a season ticket holder of the Panthers, I am optimistic for this season with the culture change and watching CMACS sexy quad muscles. 

Upgraded

Teddy> Allen

Robby Anderson> Samuels and Wright on the outside

Russell Okung>  better talent, but injured as often as Turner.

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1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Although, the Panthers have lost weapons were also assuming they will just flat out stink. Maybe Rhule and the front offense know what they're doing. It seems as if the Panthers have improved the offense some what. The draft is coming up and they have a top 10 pick. CMAC is a rb, but he does it all. Panthers could compete this year. Teddy manages the game well. Their biggest loss was Luke, which is tremendous and can't be replaced. As a season ticket holder of the Panthers, I am optimistic for this season with the culture change and watching CMACS sexy quad muscles. 

Upgraded

Teddy> Allen

Robby Anderson> Samuels and Wright on the outside

Russell Okung>  better talent, but injured as often as Turner.

I could see the front seven being decent with Short, Burns and Thompson.

But that secondary gonna get lit up like a Christmas tree.

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He's DND for me.   Remember David Johnson a few years ago?  Consensus #1 fantasy pick.   And he's done for the year.

CMC?  No thanks.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I’m sorry but not a single back deserves that kind of money. RBs enter their prime the second they step on the field. Good that he got payed but it just makes no sense from the Panthers perspective.

The only time it would ever make sense to fork over a back that much money is if you are a contender with a truly elite defense and are dependent on running the ball due to not having an elite QB. 


I’m sorry I don’t agree with you . We shall see how this plays out in the coming years. If the Panthers have greater success than they have in the past , without Cam Newton mind you ... then it was definitely worth it. And RB’s DONT enter their prime the second they touch the field , that’s just a flat wrong idiotic assessment

Edited by RunCMC

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11 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


I’m sorry I don’t agree with you . We shall see how this plays out in the coming years. If the Panthers have greater success than they have in the past , without Cam Newton mind you ... then it was definitely worth it. And RB’s DONT enter their prime the second they touch the field , that’s just a flat wrong idiotic assessment

 

I get that you're a fan of the guy (judging by your username anyway), and there's no doubt that he's an excellent running back. But the guy had 400 touches last season. That's an unusually high number. If he keeps getting 350-400 touches a season, he'll burn himself out sooner than later. No RB can handle that big a workload. McCaffrey is basically in the same spot that Bell and Gurley were a few years ago.

 

The only way this makes sense, is if McCaffrey has a Ladainian Tomlinson/Emmitt Smith type of career, playing 10 years on an excellent team (with a consistently good o-line and great QB). Is Carolina going to be as good as the 2000s chargers, who had a great o-line along with Phillip Rivers & Drew Brees at QB? No chance.

 

The 49ers made the Super bowl with a dirt-cheap committee of Mostert, Breida, and Coleman totaling 2500 yards. That's how the good teams do it. And none of them pay RBs $15 million+ a year

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The argument can be made that championship teams and SB contenders tend to have great rushing attacks more often than not. Even in this era of passing. How they pay their rushing attack is a different story for each team.

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2 hours ago, RunCMC said:


I’m sorry I don’t agree with you . We shall see how this plays out in the coming years. If the Panthers have greater success than they have in the past , without Cam Newton mind you ... then it was definitely worth it. And RB’s DONT enter their prime the second they touch the field , that’s just a flat wrong idiotic assessment

“The youngest players to accomplish a peak season were 21 – Clinton Portis and Ezekiel Elliott. The oldest players to accomplish the feat were 31 – Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber, and Ricky Watters. The peak is from ages 23 to 28, as an incredible 80.7 percent of the seasons fall within this range.
...

It’s worth noting that 11 running backs achieved a peak season at 22 years old and 15 at 23 years old, compared to just seven at 29 years old and six at 30. This shows that a running back is more likely to have a peak season early in his career at 22 or 23 than at the end of his career, at 29 or 30” 

- Apexfantasyleagues.com

Age 26 produces the highest number of RB1s followed by age 23 in a close second and age 21 is third (from fantasypros.com).

I don’t think my statement is what’s idiotic...

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22 minutes ago, devaster said:

The argument can be made that championship teams and SB contenders tend to have great rushing attacks more often than not. Even in this era of passing. How they pay their rushing attack is a different story for each team.

Actually it’s usually not a different story. Go look at the teams that played in the super bowl and how much have an elite RB. It’ll show you how valuable they are. 

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10 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

“The youngest players to accomplish a peak season were 21 – Clinton Portis and Ezekiel Elliott. The oldest players to accomplish the feat were 31 – Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber, and Ricky Watters. The peak is from ages 23 to 28, as an incredible 80.7 percent of the seasons fall within this range.
...

It’s worth noting that 11 running backs achieved a peak season at 22 years old and 15 at 23 years old, compared to just seven at 29 years old and six at 30. This shows that a running back is more likely to have a peak season early in his career at 22 or 23 than at the end of his career, at 29 or 30” 

- Apexfantasyleagues.com

Age 26 produces the highest number of RB1s followed by age 23 in a close second and age 21 is third (from fantasypros.com).

I don’t think my statement is what’s idiotic...


Yes it was ... you said the moment they touch the field. Now your back tracking with stats on ages ranging from 21-32 , 26 , 23 ... Lmao , give me a break will ya. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

So what is CMC’s projection for 2020?


2019:

287 carries, 1387 yds, 15 TDs, 116 receptions, 1005 yds, 4 TDs, 413.6 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall in 2019.


2020 Ceiling:

320 carries, 1400 yds, 15 TDs, 120 receptions, 1200 yards, 10 TDs, 470 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall.


2020 Floor:

220 carries, 1000 yds, 8 TDs, 100 receptions, 900  yards, 4 TDs, 312 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall.
 

So the range for 2020 projections I see for CMC is:

220-320 carries, 1900-2600 scrimmage yards, 12-25 TDs, 90-120 receptions. 310-470 fantasy points(0.5ppr). RB1-RB1 overall.

 

My 2020 projection for CMC would then be roughly in the middle of that range:

270 carries, 2200 scrimmage yards, 18 TDs, 105 receptions. 383.5 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall.

 

 

 

Edited by LostAtSea
Numbers
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Paying big bucks for running backs, especially as a reward for past performance, is a manuever performed by poorly-run NFL franchises.

Even CMC.  When Gurley, David Johnson, Elliott, and Bell got their huge deals, they were the top guys at the time.  Now each of those contracts look absolutely turrble!

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:


Yes it was ... you said the moment they touch the field. Now your back tracking with stats on ages ranging from 21-32 , 26 , 23 ... Lmao , give me a break will ya. 

I did not back track whatsoever. Just because RBs don't peak in their rookie year does not mean they are not in their prime. The prime RANGE is from 21-26. Almost every single RB is going to peak by 28. The only exception to my statement is going to be RBs that do not start first on the depth chart. However, that doesn't apply to CMC so it is irrelevant. 

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Paying big bucks for running backs, especially as a reward for past performance, is a manuever performed by poorly-run NFL franchises.

Even CMC.  When Gurley, David Johnson, Elliott, and Bell got their huge deals, they were the top guys at the time.  Now each of those contracts look absolutely turrble!

 

Some of those guys either got hurt or held out. I dont see how he compares to any of those situations. Plus CMC is still fairly young and is arguably the best RB in that group.

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5 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Some of those guys either got hurt or held out. I dont see how he compares to any of those situations. Plus CMC is still fairly young and is arguably the best RB in that group.

You wouldn’t have any argument from me on that one.

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

Some of those guys either got hurt or held out. I dont see how he compares to any of those situations. Plus CMC is still fairly young and is arguably the best RB in that group.

Even if CMC is the best of that group (at this time last year very few would have argued that), it is still foolish in my view to give a running back big bucks.

Get four RBs for cheap, each one who does something well, spend big on your lines, prosper.  How many times are these deals going to have to blow up before teams finally get wise?

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4 hours ago, LostAtSea said:


2019:

287 carries, 1387 yds, 15 TDs, 116 receptions, 1005 yds, 4 TDs, 413.6 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall in 2019.


2020 Ceiling:

320 carries, 1400 yds, 15 TDs, 120 receptions, 1200 yards, 10 TDs, 470 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall.


2020 Floor:

220 carries, 1000 yds, 8 TDs, 100 receptions, 900  yards, 4 TDs, 312 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall.
 

So the range for 2020 projections I see for CMC is:

220-320 carries, 1900-2600 scrimmage yards, 12-25 TDs, 90-120 receptions. 310-470 fantasy points(0.5ppr). RB1-RB1 overall.

 

My 2020 projection for CMC would then be roughly in the middle of that range:

270 carries, 2200 scrimmage yards, 18 TDs, 105 receptions. 383.5 fantasy points(0.5ppr), RB1 overall.

 

 

 

New season and people still don't know how a floor works.

Nothing new.

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

Some of those guys either got hurt or held out. I dont see how he compares to any of those situations. Plus CMC is still fairly young and is arguably the best RB in that group.

RBs tend to get hurt more than anyone because of how much touches they get and the physicality of those touches. Saying they all got hurt doesn't support the argument that RBs should get payed that's for damn sure. 

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He’s basically a WR. It seems like a lot but he was the whole panthers offense. I think it was a good move. 

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