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Christian McCaffrey 2020 Outlook

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He’s basically both an elite RB and a great WR in one person.  It’s way too soon to evaluate the contract, but I can see why the Panthers were willing to go that high.  It was really either that or trade him for picks.  The Panthers must believe they are entering a window of contention.

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

RBs tend to get hurt more than anyone because of how much touches they get and the physicality of those touches. Saying they all got hurt doesn't support the argument that RBs should get payed that's for damn sure. 

 

3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Even if CMC is the best of that group (at this time last year very few would have argued that), it is still foolish in my view to give a running back big bucks.

Get four RBs for cheap, each one who does something well, spend big on your lines, prosper.  How many times are these deals going to have to blow up before teams finally get wise?

I agree that elite RBs are generally worthless in real life football and are almost never worth the 2nd contract, im just saying this contract might be one of the rare RB contracts that work out.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

I agree that elite RBs are generally worthless in real life football and are almost never worth the 2nd contract, im just saying this contract might be one of the rare RB contracts that work out.

Of course it MAY workout. The problem is the position the franchise is in makes no sense. Last year they won 5 games and CMC had a historic season. I doubt they do much better and they are going to be paying him 18M a year playing the most injury prone position in the league. 

Edited by Gohawks

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6 hours ago, Gohawks said:

RBs tend to get hurt more than anyone because of how much touches they get and the physicality of those touches. Saying they all got hurt doesn't support the argument that RBs should get payed that's for damn sure. 

I can forgive you once. But I've seen you misspell "paid" at least three times. Stop it.

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All I ever see on here are arguments for not paying guys. Don't pay the QB top dollar because it handcuffs the franchise from paying other positions. Don't pay the RB because they get injured and aren't needed to win championships. Don't pay WR's because the top teams winning championships don't pay their WR's. Not every team is the New England Patriots.

The Patriots, specifically Belichick, had Brady taking a pay cut every season and spread that money out to bring in more mid-level/veteran talent. Made the roster stronger in the middle. They let go of some talent and paid other top talent like Gilmore or Gronk.

Other teams that end up paying their top talent need to make do with cheap rookies and undrafted players. As long as a team hits on a couple drafts they are set for a championship window. If they don't they fall out.

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28 minutes ago, devaster said:

I can forgive you once. But I've seen you misspell "paid" at least three times. Stop it.

I can’t believe I won the spelling bee in third grade...

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24 minutes ago, devaster said:

All I ever see on here are arguments for not paying guys. Don't pay the QB top dollar because it handcuffs the franchise from paying other positions. Don't pay the RB because they get injured and aren't needed to win championships. Don't pay WR's because the top teams winning championships don't pay their WR's. Not every team is the New England Patriots.

The Patriots, specifically Belichick, had Brady taking a pay cut every season and spread that money out to bring in more mid-level/veteran talent. Made the roster stronger in the middle. They let go of some talent and paid other top talent like Gilmore or Gronk.

Other teams that end up paying their top talent need to make do with cheap rookies and undrafted players. As long as a team hits on a couple drafts they are set for a championship window. If they don't they fall out.

Franchise QBs deserve to be paid and elite linemen on both sides deserve to be paid. Everything else is on a case per case basis.

Linebackers are also usually a safe bet as they have very good durability and safe career arc.

The secondary is tough to pay because the player arc is more similar to RBs than anything else. Which means when it comes time to pay them there’s a big chance they are going to be eating money while not producing towards the back end of the contract. Hell, DBs peak in year 3.

WRs are a safe bet to pay but how valuable they are is debatable. However, in today’s NFL there’s no doubt that WRs are quite valuable.

A lot of it boils down to if a position is likely to continue to producing after getting the big payday. RBs and corners tend to decline around that time. The discussion isn’t even 100% positional value. Not that positional value helps the RBs case. 

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Of course it MAY workout. The problem is the position the franchise is in makes no sense. Last year they won 5 games and CMC had a historic season. I doubt they do much better and they are going to be paying him 18M a year playing the most injury prone position in the league. 

Given that Cam and Kuechly are gone i think this is kind of a necessary move to appease the fanbase

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7 hours ago, BMcP said:

He’s basically both an elite RB and a great WR in one person.  It’s way too soon to evaluate the contract, but I can see why the Panthers were willing to go that high.  It was really either that or trade him for picks.  The Panthers must believe they are entering a window of contention.

That’s the kicker here.  He isn’t a between the tackles grinder who might wear down quicker than the average back.  He’s a multi dimensional star.  He’s an elite WR also.  He also has an amazing physique and keeps himself in the best of shapes.  I hope no other turd running back uses this contract as some barometer.  McCaffrey is an absolute league of his own at his “position” and nobody else is even close.

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On 4/13/2020 at 3:39 PM, RunCMC said:

Let’s go Mama , we made it !! 
 
Kid is a god ... none like him. Well deserved & entering his prime . By the time this contract ends he’ll still be 28 , imagine that . Him and Saquon are the only backs who deserve this kinda money , imho . You need to be absolutely ELITE, in both the run & pass. 

Saquon couldn’t hold his jock.  He doesn’t deserve anything close to what CMC just got.  Not even close to the level of talent.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Saquon couldn’t hold his jock.  He doesn’t deserve anything close to what CMC just got.  Not even close to the level of talent.

Oh boy. You're from Seattle so I really hate to do this but my word is this statement dumb.

First off, there are a few things that contribute to the success of a running back and this is true for the position more than any other position in the NFL. Coaching, offense, offensive line, usage, defense, etc. Obviously the Panthers were no elite team with inconsistent QB play at best. However, just look at these 4 plays: 

1:02 (76 yard TD), 3:24 (84 yard TD), 4:55 (40 yard TD), and 5:50 (58 yard TD)

CMC had 4 carries for 258 and 4 TDs on 4 plays. Now, I am NOT arguing that big plays are fluky and should be excluded make no mistake about it as that is a foolish argument. However, on these 4 carries that are over 1/4th of the way to 1,000 he is TOUCHED a total of TWO TIMES. If it was two hand touch all those TDs would still stand. Barkley could only dream of holes like that.

I am not arguing that he isn't an elite talent, very good, or that he is a system RB. Not even close. However, on another talent from Barkley? Give me a break. 

Edited by Gohawks
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5 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Saquon couldn’t hold his jock.  He doesn’t deserve anything close to what CMC just got.  Not even close to the level of talent.

 

17-Laughing-Really-Hard-Gif.gif

 

 

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What's crazy is that he's not that much bigger than Edeleman.    I don't know that it would ever happen but I wonder if he wouldn't be effective as a slot WR as he gets older.

 

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21 minutes ago, K197040 said:

What's crazy is that he's not that much bigger than Edeleman.    I don't know that it would ever happen but I wonder if he wouldn't be effective as a slot WR as he gets older.

 

He could definitely make that transition. I projected him as a career slot receiver coming out, but he has handled running the ball just fine.

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On 4/15/2020 at 9:06 AM, K197040 said:

What's crazy is that he's not that much bigger than Edeleman.    I don't know that it would ever happen but I wonder if he wouldn't be effective as a slot WR as he gets older.

 

He is already effective as a slot WR.  But will never happen.  Love CMC but by the time he is done at RB he will not have anything left.  So doubt he sticks around to be a slot guy.

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13 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Regression time?

 

Or do we expect even better numbers this year?

Think you have to expect some regression.  He just had a historic season.  Not sure exact points but he was very close or higher in ppr points to LT's 2006 season(greatest season ever for a RB).  Really nowhere to go but down.  Plus he lost his Offensive Coordinator.  Even with that said still the number 1 pick hands down.

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On 4/20/2020 at 10:40 AM, youngrice said:

Think you have to expect some regression.  He just had a historic season.  Not sure exact points but he was very close or higher in ppr points to LT's 2006 season(greatest season ever for a RB).  Really nowhere to go but down.  Plus he lost his Offensive Coordinator.  Even with that said still the number 1 pick hands down.

And replaced him with Joe Brady... Net positive there.

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On 4/20/2020 at 8:21 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Regression time?

 

Or do we expect even better numbers this year?


Don’t come up in my house & talk blasphemy Cleats , you know better. But yeah I definitely expect his numbers to decline in 2020 . Still easily the #1 consensus pick though. 

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3 hours ago, RunCMC said:


Don’t come up in my house & talk blasphemy Cleats , you know better. But yeah I definitely expect his numbers to decline in 2020 . Still easily the #1 consensus pick though. 

 

Lmao, just poking the 🐻.

 

#1 fantasy player for good reason.

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CMC has a crazy high snap percentage too some games he played 100% of the snaps. No one does that anymore. Was that a head coach decision or and OC decision? Will joe brady Or Rhule wanna ride one guy that much? If now will that bring down his stats or will he just be more efficient? Just asking questions and hoping for some enlightening answers.

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On 4/21/2020 at 2:03 PM, sasnumberonefan said:

And replaced him with Joe Brady... Net positive there.

Possibly.  We know for fact his old OC fed him like no tomorrow.  No telling what Brady will do as it pertains to CMC.  

I think you have to take CMC #1 in re-draft, but consistency is a big thing I look for in players.  Not consistent production, but consistency in their surroundings.  QB, HC, OC, offensive system, etc.  

CMC is getting a new HC, OC and QB this year.  So there is basically nothing similar to his surrounding from the last 2 years where he was dominant.  I'm not knocking CMC because I think he could flourish anywhere on any team, with any coach and QB (as we saw last year and the atrocious QB play).  All I'm saying is just about every variable around him is different this year, coming off a historic season, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few others finish ahead of him this year.  

 

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Probably the easiest call at the #1 pick since AD in 2015.

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On 4/23/2020 at 3:24 PM, Stonej14 said:

CMC has a crazy high snap percentage too some games he played 100% of the snaps. No one does that anymore. Was that a head coach decision or and OC decision? Will joe brady Or Rhule wanna ride one guy that much? If now will that bring down his stats or will he just be more efficient? Just asking questions and hoping for some enlightening answers.

Barkley pushes 95%+ in a good amount of games so it's plausible. However, this is the biggest worry with the situation. Snap amount is just as dependent on the coaches as it is on the player. 

I mean, he's still the obvious #1 pick. However, I don't think it's all butterflies and rainbows when selecting him. There's more risk than there seems with him. Thomas is probably the safest bet especially with Winston as his backup. He just doesn't touch CMCs ceiling which doesn't make it much of a debate. I'd gladly take CMC at 1 but I rather have pick 4 or 5. Get Kamara, Thomas, or Cook. 

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Definitely Christian is easily the #1 fantasy pick(No Doubt). With Teddy Bridgewater at QB I can still see Christian getting the around the same work carrying he ball and rushing stats as he did in 2019. The receiving yards he will still get great numbers, but I don't see over 1,000 yard numbers. Don't know what the Panthers are going to do with Curtis Samuel yet and that could be a little impact. The addition of Robbie Anderson shouldn't affect CMC much at all as he is more of a deep threat for the Panthers and DJ Moore will also get his. My main concern with the receiving is the lack of a TE and will Ian Thomas or somebody else step up.

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