nmartinez12443

Adam Thielen 2020 Outlook

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Hamstrings are tricky, but with Diggs gone how can this dude not end up top 10 WR preranked?  He may fly under the radar after a lost season.

He really popped off in the playoffs and seems 100%. So unless they get some major WR FA like robbie anderson, perriman etc,  I will be all over this dude in 2020. 

1. MT

2. Adams

3. Julio

4. Godwin

5. Hopkins

6. Tyreek

7. Amari

8. Thielen, Sutton, OBJ, Devante Parker, Metcalf, Hilton, Golladay, Ridley?

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59 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Hamstrings are tricky, but with Diggs gone how can this dude not end up top 10 WR preranked?  He may fly under the radar after a lost season.

He really popped off in the playoffs and seems 100%. So unless they get some major WR FA like robbie anderson, perriman etc,  I will be all over this dude in 2020. 

1. MT

2. Adams

3. Julio

4. Godwin

5. Hopkins

6. Tyreek

7. Amari

8. Thielen, Sutton, OBJ, Devante Parker, Metcalf, Hilton, Golladay, Ridley?

 

 

He won't fly under the radar. he will Kirks primary wr 😂

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

He won't fly under the radar. he will Kirks primary wr 😂

Yeah, but people may be down on him after a down 2nd half of 2018, and essentially a bust year in 2019 because of injury compared other guys around him who had banner years like Sutton, Devante Parker, Ridley to some extent. 

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Its also fair to wonder if he'll just get doubled endlessly and struggle through it.   They also lost their OC and it seems like their overall depth is shrinking every year lately as quality players head out as they struggle to stay cap compliant.   

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I would take him in the 4th or 5th round, pending on the size of the league. 10 team I would target mid 40's and and 12 team I wouldn't mind him as my 2nd wr. Kirk is going to give him some looks. Both of the 1st rounds will be used on the defense, they need to address Corner and their o-line as they still haven't fixed the problem.

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4 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Its also fair to wonder if he'll just get doubled endlessly and struggle through it.   They also lost their OC and it seems like their overall depth is shrinking every year lately as quality players head out as they struggle to stay cap compliant.   

 

If he is playing out of the slot it wouldnt make sense for a defense to double cover him. Defenses focus coverage on not getting beat downfield for large chunk plays.

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Posted (edited)

He just cracks the top 10 for me as of now:

1. Michael Thomas

2. Davanta Adams

3. Tyreek Hill

4. DeAndre Hopkins

5. Julio Jones

6. Chris Godwin

7. Amari Cooper

8. Odell Beckham Jr.

9. DJ Moore

10. Adam Thielen

Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Kennan Allen and Allen Robinson are basically interchangeable with anyone starting at #7 tho.

 

Edited by paulwall29

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

He just cracks the top 10 for me as of now:

1. Michael Thomas

2. Davanta Adams

3. Tyreek Hill

4. DeAndre Hopkins

5. Julio Jones

6. Chris Godwin

7. Amari Cooper

8. Odell Beckham Jr.

9. DJ Moore

10. Adam Thielen

Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Kennan Allen and Allen Robinson are basically interchangeable with anyone starting at #7 tho.

 

Forgot about DJ Moore, yeah he should be there and beckham could bounce back. Allen/Evans/Robinson could be huge wild cards with new qbs, I like Golladay. One thing we can agree is that WRs are deep this year and having a top 5 pick is a huge advantage (CMC, Saquon, Zeke, Kamara. Cook (handcuffed)(full ppr). You can get 2 of any of the dudes coming back. 

Back to theilen, I think in terms of being safe and guaranteed targets/stable environment, he is a TOP target of mine. Thats how you win fantasy safe in the beginning 3 rds risks lottery picks later on.  Hamstrings scare me but lots of guys in the top 10 have this issue. He should push for over 120 targets minimum and thats the most important thing in fantasy. 

Edited by nmartinez12443

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So the Vikings lose diggs and Adams adp remains what is was going into last season? He was great when healthy too. Seems like an easy wr1 in ppr that’s flying under the radar bc he isn’t as young and sexy as guys like Moore and sutton  

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30 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

So the Vikings lose diggs and Adams adp remains what is was going into last season? He was great when healthy too. Seems like an easy wr1 in ppr that’s flying under the radar bc he isn’t as young and sexy as guys like Moore and sutton  

Guys flying under the radar that aren't young or sexy rarely finish as WR1s.

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21 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Guys flying under the radar that aren't young or sexy rarely finish as WR1s.

I guess I would need to see some stats on this. Theilen himself has a wr1 finish previously and wasn’t a sexy pick then either. Robert woods is another that comes to mind. Does this also hold true for non sexy picks whose team just traded away his main competitor for targets? If you’re scared of an injury fine, but baring thT I don’t see how he isn’t top 12. Basically jujus fantasy stock  on steroids 

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36 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

I guess I would need to see some stats on this. Theilen himself has a wr1 finish previously and wasn’t a sexy pick then either. Robert woods is another that comes to mind. Does this also hold true for non sexy picks whose team just traded away his main competitor for targets? If you’re scared of an injury fine, but baring thT I don’t see how he isn’t top 12. Basically jujus fantasy stock  on steroids 

Just personally not a huge fan of his career arc at the moment, age 30 entering a season with added defensive focus, first season not staying healthy, new offensive coordinator and I personally think Jefferson will be better in year one than Diggs was last year.

I also get a little wary of guys who had to spend 5 or so years climbing up to WR1 status and then have setbacks. If they were truly outstanding athletes they wouldn't be so reliant on mastering the craft and the technique and they'd be busting out early on. I feel like those guys have more of a cliff than the elite performers who are elite their whole careers.

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2 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Just personally not a huge fan of his career arc at the moment, age 30 entering a season with added defensive focus, first season not staying healthy, new offensive coordinator and I personally think Jefferson will be better in year one than Diggs was last year.

I also get a little wary of guys who had to spend 5 or so years climbing up to WR1 status and then have setbacks. If they were truly outstanding athletes they wouldn't be so reliant on mastering the craft and the technique and they'd be busting out early on. I feel like those guys have more of a cliff than the elite performers who are elite their whole careers.

 

Thats asking a lot for a rookie WR given how great Diggs was last season. Totally agree with everything else you said. Im wary of Thielen also.

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8 hours ago, pushaZ said:

Just personally not a huge fan of his career arc at the moment, age 30 entering a season with added defensive focus, first season not staying healthy, new offensive coordinator and I personally think Jefferson will be better in year one than Diggs was last year.

I also get a little wary of guys who had to spend 5 or so years climbing up to WR1 status and then have setbacks. If they were truly outstanding athletes they wouldn't be so reliant on mastering the craft and the technique and they'd be busting out early on. I feel like those guys have more of a cliff than the elite performers who are elite their whole careers.

Gonna ignore the ridiculous Jefferson comment bc that’ll derail the theilen convo

 

I would argue the guys who win with technique as opposed to athleticism are less likely to fall off. You don’t really lose skills with age like you do with muscle performance. But either way, I don’t consider 30 to be old for a wr. There’s data suggesting that’s a material age for rbs, im not aware of any stats suggesting 30 is a key age for wrs as well. 

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Posted (edited)

Kupp, lamar, respecatble 3rd adp rb(ingram for example) then im looking

 

with all this coronavirus hitting, im only targeting safety/veterans/and a good qb, and anyone who gets a buzz for adding 10 lb muscle during the lockdown

 

im treating this season as similar to 2011 lockout, calvin johnson had news broke he gained 10lb muscle and beasted, all qbs threw for 5000 yards plus, history will repeat itself

 

hell, i bet gore even gets 800 yards and a few tds/receptions as a free pick, based off hardwork and veteran status alone

 

Watch out for the x box playing guys like kamara and leveon, i predict those types will be off their “game” ha

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins

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Anybody worried that Jefferson plays the slot and Thielen is getting toughest corner assignments or possible double zone coverage constantly?

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1 minute ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

Anybody worried that Jefferson plays the slot and Thielen is getting toughest corner assignments or possible double zone coverage constantly?

Not sure, id say its thielens year to feast assuming he is training hard during this lock down (and kirk)

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6 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

with all this coronavirus hitting, im only targeting safety/veterans

I think the older guys are supposed to be more susceptible ;)

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19 minutes ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

Anybody worried that Jefferson plays the slot and Thielen is getting toughest corner assignments or possible double zone coverage constantly?

I think it’s more likely they put AT their known stud wr in a position to succeed than a rookie. 

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Just now, Panthers8912 said:

I think it’s more likely they put AT their known stud wr in a position to succeed than a rookie. 

The knock on Jefferson was he can’t separate in man coverage. But is excellent in the slot. Thielen Could play outside? But I guess I would worry if he does well outside. I haven’t seen him there much in the games I’ve seen. I saw Diggs there a lot and Thielen in the slot. The problem outside is the cbs he would face are the top coverage guys.

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This is where Boudewijn needs to give us a graph to make me not worry about Thielen playing outside against top corners. 😁

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One of the most OVERVALUED players in FF this year. Avoid at that ADP!!!

 

Much like Juju SS, Thielen needs an alpha #1 WR on the outside drawing all the attention so he can eat in the slot. Even when he had that 100-yard game streak, Diggs was always the most dangerous WR on the team and the guy who defenses game planned around, allowing Thielen to produce. His elite production all came with Diggs on the field, much like all of Juju's production came with AB on the field. The deep threat Diggs isn't there anymore, they replaced him with a slot receiver, meaning Thielen is now just an ordinary WR in Fantasy. Let someone else draft Theilen at that ADP and be disappointed.

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41 minutes ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

Anybody worried that Jefferson plays the slot and Thielen is getting toughest corner assignments or possible double zone coverage constantly?

Yup I was, just got called "ridiculous" for it tho

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28 minutes ago, euphoriahbo said:

One of the most OVERVALUED players in FF this year. Avoid at that ADP!!!

 

Much like Juju SS, Thielen needs an alpha #1 WR on the outside drawing all the attention so he can eat in the slot. Even when he had that 100-yard game streak, Diggs was always the most dangerous WR on the team and the guy who defenses game planned around, allowing Thielen to produce. His elite production all came with Diggs on the field, much like all of Juju's production came with AB on the field. The deep threat Diggs isn't there anymore, they replaced him with a slot receiver, meaning Thielen is now just an ordinary WR in Fantasy. Let someone else draft Theilen at that ADP and be disappointed.


LOL at this. Theilen HAS been the best Minn WR since 2016. Unlike Juju, he actually has produced top-5 seasons while facing #1 CBs.  If you think defenses were more afraid of Diggs while Theilen was setting NFL records for 100+ yard games, you either weren’t watching tape or assume that he’s not great bc he is white.

I hope taeks like the quoted post push his value down. A phenomenal player to trade for in dynasty leagues right now.

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