paulwall29

Chris Godwin 2020 Outlook

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1 minute ago, StevenSC400 said:

Yeah I mean maybe I’m overreacting a bit but this was supposed to be a great game too. What I’m saying is last year there run game was so bad that they had to pass to move the chains. But now they have been having success closing games out with jones. That’s not good for Godwin who used to feast in those moments.

I guess, but this game was over somewhere in the 3rd quarter. Jones closing it out was because the game wasn't competitive. Godwin was barely on the field in the 2nd half, and this was also Evans' worst game as well. Godwin had 10 points at halftime in PPR, and had the game been more competitive I would have expected 15-20 to end the game. 

I'm more concerned with the TB defense -- that was a more dominant performance than I've seen previously -- so could Godwin get gameflowed out moving forward ? That's possible. The playoff lineup is the main thing that causes me to pause before trying to trade him.

 

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5 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

I guess, but this game was over somewhere in the 3rd quarter. Jones closing it out was because the game wasn't competitive. Godwin was barely on the field in the 2nd half, and this was also Evans' worst game as well. Godwin had 10 points at halftime in PPR, and had the game been more competitive I would have expected 15-20 to end the game. 

I'm more concerned with the TB defense -- that was a more dominant performance than I've seen previously -- so could Godwin get gameflowed out moving forward ? That's possible. The playoff lineup is the main thing that causes me to pause before trying to trade him.

 

Agree

he was gameflowed out 5 min into the third quarter. The defense is great and Rojo looks good. Gronk had a good game and evans didn’t do anything. He should get minimum 7 targets a game but this defense may cap his upside for the huge blow up games. Interesting to see what he may field in trades. 

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18 minutes ago, PackerBacker555 said:

Agree

he was gameflowed out 5 min into the third quarter. The defense is great and Rojo looks good. Gronk had a good game and evans didn’t do anything. He should get minimum 7 targets a game but this defense may cap his upside for the huge blow up games. Interesting to see what he may field in trades. 

The defense also looks really good on top of some of the other issues. Factor all of these in I’m just not seeing a season like last year. More WR2 type numbers.

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The Raiders defense is pretty much exactly as bad as the Packers.  And the Raiders offense is worse.  This could be an even worse game script for Godwin.  Ugh.  Benching.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, MBarbarian said:

The Raiders defense is pretty much exactly as bad as the Packers.  And the Raiders offense is worse.  This could be an even worse game script for Godwin.  Ugh.  Benching.

 

 

 

Their offense is actually pretty decent. They have no issues putting up points.

How are you benching this stud ?  I see no world where I'm ever sitting Godwin, even in the most shallowest of leagues. 

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:

 

Their offense is actually pretty decent. They have no issues putting up points.

How are you benching this stud ?  I see no world where I'm ever sitting Godwin, even in the most shallowest of leagues. 


This. They just hung 40 on the Chiefs. Obviously TB defense looks better than KC but the game should still be competitive. Last week seemed like a bit of a fluke with Rodgers forcing shots to Adams and turnovers creating huge momentum swings. Not overly confident starting Godwin but absolutely not benching him. 

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:

 

Their offense is actually pretty decent. They have no issues putting up points.

How are you benching this stud ?  I see no world where I'm ever sitting Godwin, even in the most shallowest of leagues. 

Evans-Gronk-Jones

With that many mouths to feed I dont consider a 1,000-7 stud numbers. Remember when the Patriots had Gronk and Edelman? Name another fantasy relevant patriot wr. I'd rather have have Amari with the red terd throwing to him down 20 points at halftime

 

It's one thing if your the Minnesota Vikings a couple years ago with Thilen and Diggs. But Brady and Gronk are high school sweethearts.

Edited by dkrocka

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4 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Evans-Gronk-Jones

With that many mouths to feed I dont consider a 1,000-7 stud numbers. Remember when the Patriots had Gronk and Edelman? Name another fantasy relevant patriot wr. I'd rather have have Amari with the red terd throwing to him down 20 points at halftime

 

It's one thing if your the Minnesota Vikings a couple years ago with Thilen and Diggs. But Brady and Gronk are high school sweethearts.

Gronk has had literally one good game all season.

This passing offense goes through Godwin & Evans

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1 hour ago, MBarbarian said:

The Raiders defense is pretty much exactly as bad as the Packers.  And the Raiders offense is worse.  This could be an even worse game script for Godwin.  Ugh.  Benching.

 

 

 

 

P3ciPTD.gif

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6 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Gronk has had literally one good game all season.

This passing offense goes through Godwin & Evans

Gronk had 8 targets to Godwin's 7. Are you sure?

Edited by dkrocka

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2 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Gronk had 8 targets to Godwin's 7. Are you sure?

And 20 total targets the other 5 games. Umm yeah I'm pretty sure dude.

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Just now, yanksman said:

And 20 total targets the other 5 games. Umm yeah I'm pretty sure dude.

Let's talk about red zone targets next

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Last year the Bucs defense was terrible, they were throwing to come back the whole season.  They had no running game, didn't use the tight end and Evans took a huge backseat to Godwin.  This year their defense is solid, they run the ball effectively, they use Gronk in the middle of the field.  And on top of all that he's banged up. In big trouble with Godwin. 

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13 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

I wouldn't own either. TB has a solid line. They run Jones plenty, they have a good defense. Godwin is perceived to be a high-end WR2 when hes really just a WR2. I'm sorry you paid for last year's numbers

All this is true and why I do think Godwin will be more low end WR1 this year. Gronk has zero impact on his outlook though.

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23 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Guys drafted around Godwin: Thielen and Metcalf. IE: guys that get the ball with the game on the line, *expected to get 100 yards and/or a score every week. What's your projection for Godwin next week? 60 yards and a score? What are you expecting for 6 or 8 targets? 

Godwin was the WR2 last season on 121 targets. He was the 17th highest targeted WR. He's hyper efficient and can produce high end elite numbers with less targets then most WRs. He was knocked out of a game with a concussion and then injured his hamstring the very next time he played. They just crushed Green Bay in his first game back. He finally looks healthy so the jury is 100% out. All that matters is what he does from here on out. He could absolutely be a top 5 WR going forward. If you are betting on him to finish outside the top 12 going forward with 6-8 targets per game it's probably not a bet you are going to win.

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I disagree that he looks healthy.  He took himself out a few times to stretch and today he is still limited in practice.  Really frustrating.

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2 minutes ago, Islanderman said:

I disagree that he looks healthy.  He took himself out a few times to stretch and today he is still limited in practice.  Really frustrating.

It's wednesday. I could be wrong on his health but I thought he looked fine for the most part. He's an awesome player. Things just kind of haven't gone his way this year so far. I will say I don't have any shares because I was generally passing on WR where he was going due to the depth of the position. I am currently looking into buying if he can be had below where I personally value him. 

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22 minutes ago, Benjamin1984 said:

Godwin was the WR2 last season on 121 targets. He was the 17th highest targeted WR. He's hyper efficient and can produce high end elite numbers with less targets then most WRs. He was knocked out of a game with a concussion and then injured his hamstring the very next time he played. They just crushed Green Bay in his first game back. He finally looks healthy so the jury is 100% out. All that matters is what he does from here on out. He could absolutely be a top 5 WR going forward. If you are betting on him to finish outside the top 12 going forward with 6-8 targets per game it's probably not a bet you are going to win.

You mean last year? When Winston threw 30 ints, and the Bucs secondary was the worst in the league? Forcing Winston into shootouts... into volume? 

Now let's look at today. The qb is 43 years old, you gonna want him chucking 40 times a game when you have a sturdier offensive line, a 2TD lead and you add another bruiser in Fournette to wind that clock. Not to mention a much stronger defense?

 

Get a grip on reality. The Bucs have a completely different team AND SCHEME.

 

And last week was an undefeated Packers. What happens when its 17-3 at halftime against some mediocre team? Gonna chuck the ball and get volume like winston did being down 24-10? I dont think so

 

I give Godwin 600 yards and 3/4 TD's for his shortened year

 

And I live in Tampa, bro.

Edited by dkrocka
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Let's remember how Godwin became WR2 last year.  He's basically a super-Welker or mega-Edelman.  Perfect fit for 2020 Tom Brady. 
From last year:

Quote

 

Godwin is now the complete package. He’s a blazing-fast receiver that has the strength to break tackles, the route-running ability to shake off defenders and the hands to make those tough catches on 50–50 balls. As a deep threat, a route runner or a possession receiver, Godwin can do it all....

 

Bruce Arians has done a wonderful job squeezing out career seasons out of so many different players. Arians has always maximized his No. 1 receiver’s production by moving him all around the formation. That included taking a ton of snaps from the slot.

Theoretically, that would have played into the favor of Mike Evans, but from the beginning, Arians said it would be Godwin that would take that slot role. And that was exciting. The slot position always pays major dividends in Arians’ offenses. Arians resurrected Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald’s careers by placing those guys in the slot....

Godwin is getting open because of his talent, but Arians is also scheming him open. While Evans runs more low percentage deep routes, Godwin is getting a ton of screen passes, crossing routes and his usual deep routes. Arians is getting Godwin the ball in space, down the field, everywhere.

 

The Slot Is The New ‘X’

NFL offenses are constantly adapting. There used to be a notion that No. 1 wide receivers could only be X-receivers. Wes Welker started to lead the charge against that, but we’ve really seen slot receivers start to take over the last few years. Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen highlight a long list of true No. 1 receivers that operate from the slot.

 

https://medium.com/the-intermission/how-chris-godwin-was-created-to-dominate-fantasy-football-c6ea33dab231

 

 

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Defense too good, Brady doesn’t throw all game like Winston, Jones running looks good, Brady’s bff gronk is getting back into game shape, Evans is a red zone machine. What else am I missing? If I could I would deal Godwin ASAP.

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1 hour ago, dkrocka said:

You mean last year? When Winston threw 30 ints, and the Bucs secondary was the worst in the league? Forcing Winston into shootouts... into volume? 

Now let's look at today. The qb is 43 years old, you gonna want him chucking 40 times a game when you have a sturdier offensive line, a 2TD lead and you add another bruiser in Fournette to wind that clock. Not to mention a much stronger defense?

 

Get a grip on reality. The Bucs have a completely different team AND SCHEME.

 

And last week was an undefeated Packers. What happens when its 17-3 at halftime against some mediocre team? Gonna chuck the ball and get volume like winston did being down 24-10? I dont think so

 

I give Godwin 600 yards and 3/4 TD's for his shortened year

 

And I live in Tampa, bro.

You're completely overreacting to everything that has happened. There are plenty of reasons to believe he possibly won't be a top 5 or maybe top 10 WR but he'll be at worst a WR2 as long as he's healthy. If he isn't healthy all bets are off. He's caught at least 5 passes in the 3 games he has played some of which have been shortened. He's right around a 85 catch 1,000 yard pace in the games he has played which would make him plenty productive and this comes without being fully healthy of course. There's simply no reason to declare yourself the winner of whatever battle it is you are trying to win here. It's a small sample.

Edited by Benjamin1984
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25 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Defense too good, Brady doesn’t throw all game like Winston, Jones running looks good, Brady’s bff gronk is getting back into game shape, Evans is a red zone machine. What else am I missing? If I could I would deal Godwin ASAP.

 

Bro...Brady has averaged 37 pass attempts and 23 completions per game. 5th most in the league.  2019 Jameis averaged 39 pass attempts per game with...wait for it...23 completions per game.

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I don't know about you guys but seeing that schedule after bye week vs MIN, ATL, DET & ATL again for championship week looks tasty I would hold i wouldn't bet on Mike Evans staying healthy all season long and as long as Godwin stays healthy he will produce. Gronk is gronk can he even stay healthy all season long as well? he hardly did before his retirement.

you can argue that it was the gronk and Edelman show in New England but really thats all Brady had for the later part of his career there.

I see WR1 numbers if Evans is out but for the most part WR2 numbers for most part with the potential of a high ceiling on favorable match ups 

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1 hour ago, Benjamin1984 said:

You're completely overreacting to everything that has happened. There are plenty of reasons to believe he possibly won't be a top 5 or maybe top 10 WR but he'll be at worst a WR2 as long as he's healthy. If he isn't healthy all bets are off. He's caught at least 5 passes in the 3 games he has played some of which have been shortened. He's right around a 85 catch 1,000 yard pace in the games he has played which would make him plenty productive and this comes without being fully healthy of course. There's simply no reason to declare yourself the winner of whatever battle it is you are trying to win here. It's a small sample.

So he's on pace for 1,000 yards and 8 tds IF you extrapolate a sss? I swear someone projected a similar stat line, and while useful, not wr1, not a stud. I think you might of heard 1,000 6/7 from my text

Edited by dkrocka

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1 hour ago, MBarbarian said:

 

Bro...Brady has averaged 37 pass attempts and 23 completions per game. 5th most in the league.  2019 Jameis averaged 39 pass attempts per game with...wait for it...23 completions per game.

It’s more than I thought for Brady. But Winston would target godwin like ten times a game if not more. Brady spreads it around too. Everyone gets the ball. With Winston pretty much only Godwin and Evans ate. 

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