paulwall29

Chris Godwin 2020 Outlook

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I mean, Edelman was his boy, especially last year when it was him and flotsam.

They didn't have Evans, that's for sure.  And then if Gronk is rejuvenated, well, I see the target share going down.  But I could be wrong.

I could be, too, for sure.  I kind of see his target volume remaining where it was last year - just with many more accurate passes and in a more potent offense.

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i see him very high in rankings...

But with Brady not sure volume will be like the last year.

Brady will give the ball to all offense players for TD, Godwin but Evans, Gronk (he loves the Gronk for TD), OJH...

So i am not sure Godwin make a big season like the last...Brady uses more rb than Winston

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Posted (edited)

Had some time and missing football so Is ent down the YouTube rabbit hole and watched his catches from last year some comments:

1: He reminds me so much of Roddy White, not the biggest or fastest but is big/fast enough plus he is a punishing and elusive runner once the ball is in his hands

2: Great hands, not Larry Fitzgerald hands but right up there with MT

3: Even though he is a punishing runner he got tackled inside the 2 5 times last year, TDs are the most unpredictable stat in football but 9 seems doable even with Gronk and Brady in town.

4: TB12 is in town and the Bucs get a lot of nationally televised games because of that this year. So this will be the last year where Evans is even considered the 1a of this team.

 

Edited by Ddam2013

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On 6/18/2020 at 5:04 AM, Tomy said:

i see him very high in rankings...

But with Brady not sure volume will be like the last year.

Brady will give the ball to all offense players for TD, Godwin but Evans, Gronk (he loves the Gronk for TD), OJH...

So i am not sure Godwin make a big season like the last...Brady uses more rb than Winston

Why is Brady going to give the ball to everyone?

Edelman has 3 seasons with over 150 targets and as far as I’m concerned he’s not close to Godwin as a talent. Godwin tore it up on 120 targets last year and now he has a QB that loves his slot WR and is efficient at throwing to him.

Also, Gronk is washed and people need to let Howard go. He hasn’t done anything in his career. While Brady loves his RBs the Bucs RBs are one of their biggest weak spots. The Bucs only have two elite offensive threats in Godwin and Evans. One just suits Brady’s game MUCH better. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Why is Brady going to give the ball to everyone?

Edelman has 3 seasons with over 150 targets and as far as I’m concerned he’s not close to Godwin as a talent. Godwin tore it up on 120 targets last year and now he has a QB that loves his slot WR and is efficient at throwing to him.

Also, Gronk is washed and people need to let Howard go. He hasn’t done anything in his career. While Brady loves his RBs the Bucs RBs are one of their biggest weak spots. The Bucs only have two elite offensive threats in Godwin and Evans. One just suits Brady’s game MUCH better. 

This

I don't believe Godwin is necessarily a top 5-7 WR talent, but he is very, very good and has a really nice situation QB/coaching/scheme wise

Though I do believe the RBs--while not all that good--will get their share of check downs as will Gronk, but Godwin will be the target hog

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6 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

This

I don't believe Godwin is necessarily a top 5-7 WR talent, but he is very, very good and has a really nice situation QB/coaching/scheme wise

Though I do believe the RBs--while not all that good--will get their share of check downs as will Gronk, but Godwin will be the target hog

 

Godwin is an absolute beast. 

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If Tampa is moving to a 2 TE set as their base, how often will Godwin see the slot?  If you line Godwin up out wide a good % of time it stands to reason he won't get the ball nearly as often than in 11 personel.  Brady is not the risk taker Winston is, so I don’t see Godwin repeating his 2019 stats.

Not buying at his ADP.

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6 minutes ago, JAG said:

If Tampa is moving to a 2 TE set as their base, how often will Godwin see the slot?  If you line Godwin up out wide a good % of time it stands to reason he won't get the ball nearly as often than in 11 personel.  Brady is not the risk taker Winston is, so I don’t see Godwin repeating his 2019 stats.

Not buying at his ADP.

Two things:

1. In 2012 the Patriots had prime Gronk and another stud TE in Hernandez. Welker still got over 120 catches working mostly out of the slot.

2. Bold to assume they’ll run a bunch of two TE sets with arguably the most overrated TE over the last few years and a guy that’s as washed up as they come.

For the record, I believe Gronk will still help the team and be of use in the RZ but he is not going to be a target hog and I doubt he sees even 50 receptions. His body isn’t going to handle it. Just look up how brutal his injury history is. I’m sure a big reason he joined the Bucs is because he won’t have to carry the load. If for some reason the Bucs are foolish enough to have his usage be near the Patriots usage it’s not a worry for Godwin owners anyways because he damn sure isn’t making it past the half way mark of the season. 

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12 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

Godwin is an absolute beast. 

He is incredible but he was the WR2 last year, and I do believe the following WRs are at this point more talented (not necessarily better in fantasy):

MT, Adams, Hill, Julio, Hopkins (though I am not high on him in fantasy this year), healthy OBJ and AJG (haven't seen them in a while and maybe controversial) and Evans (Godwin> in fantasy but one has produced without the other; the other has not)

 

That's not a knock on him. In fantasy I would have Godwin top 7 for sure and ahead of a few of these guys (OBJ, Hopkins, AJG, Evans)

Over his career in the coming years I am sure he will climb being so young

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8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Two things:

1. In 2012 the Patriots had prime Gronk and another stud TE in Hernandez. Welker still got over 120 catches working mostly out of the slot.

2. Bold to assume they’ll run a bunch of two TE sets with arguably the most overrated TE over the last few years and a guy that’s as washed up as they come.

For the record, I believe Gronk will still help the team and be of use in the RZ but he is not going to be a target hog and I doubt he sees even 50 receptions. His body isn’t going to handle it. Just look up how brutal his injury history is. I’m sure a big reason he joined the Bucs is because he won’t have to carry the load. If for some reason the Bucs are foolish enough to have his usage be near the Patriots usage it’s not a worry for Godwin owners anyways because he damn sure isn’t making it past the half way mark of the season. 

At this point we go with what the coach says.  He says they'll run 2 TE as a base, which to me indicates we'll see that more than other sets.  If they flip their mindset or suffer injuries, then it could stand to favor Godwin.  Just remember they have 3 TEs and all 3 can work from the slot/H back.  I haven't bought that Gronk just takes over, I think they all play.  Which is why I think BA chose to switch to 2 TE.  That he feels better about 2 of them on the field than relying on the 3rd WR on the majority of his plays.

Also, the 2012 Patriots didn't have #13 with them.  That would likely even out the targets to those WRs.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, JAG said:

At this point we go with what the coach says.  He says they'll run 2 TE as a base, which to me indicates we'll see that more than other sets.  If they flip their mindset or suffer injuries, then it could stand to favor Godwin.  Just remember they have 3 TEs and all 3 can work from the slot/H back.  I haven't bought that Gronk just takes over, I think they all play.  Which is why I think BA chose to switch to 2 TE.  That he feels better about 2 of them on the field than relying on the 3rd WR on the majority of his plays.

Also, the 2012 Patriots didn't have #13 with them.  That would likely even out the targets to those WRs.

Arians blows more smoke than any coach in the league.

Sure they didn’t have Evans but Lloyd got over 130 targets that year. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t even close to Evans but the point being that it’s pretty much in line with what Evans has been getting the last few years. So the even out argument doesn’t hold a lot of water.

Edited by Gohawks

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, JAG said:

At this point we go with what the coach says.  He says they'll run 2 TE as a base, which to me indicates we'll see that more than other sets.  If they flip their mindset or suffer injuries, then it could stand to favor Godwin.  Just remember they have 3 TEs and all 3 can work from the slot/H back.  I haven't bought that Gronk just takes over, I think they all play.  Which is why I think BA chose to switch to 2 TE.  That he feels better about 2 of them on the field than relying on the 3rd WR on the majority of his plays.

Also, the 2012 Patriots didn't have #13 with them.  That would likely even out the targets to those WRs.

Arians can say whatever he wants but that’s not how the NFL works. Last year 60% of all snaps in the NFL came with 11 personnel on the field. The Bucs were 10th in percentage of snaps with 2 TEs on the field last year at 23%.
Only 2 teams had 12 personnel as their base offense, Minnesota due to their run heavy nature, which is not how this offense is built and Philadelphia. Barring terrible injury luck this isn’t going to become Philadelphia where Ertz and Goedert have to play every snap because Greg Ward is the only receiver healthy. 
Another thing we’re missing here is even if there’s 2 TEs on the field why can’t one of them line up out wide, Gronk and OJ line up split out a decent bit and if Godwin is best in the slot why not keep him there and make the defense waste a corner on OJ.

Edited by Ddam2013

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Arians blows more smoke than any coach in the league.

Sure they didn’t have Evans but Lloyd got over 130 targets that year. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t even close to Evans but the point being that it’s pretty much in line with what Evans has been getting the last few years. So the even out argument doesn’t hold a lot of water.

So we'll just compare Brandon Lloyd casually to Mike Evans.

And ignore basic personel discussions with the head coach.

What doesn't hold water is that a team not coached by BA that played 8 years ago is being used as the backdrop to this team.  Why, just because the same QB?  He's not even the same QB (so to speak).

I'm not going to spend a top.. say 18 pick on either WR.  But if forced to choose one, I'll take Brandon Lloyd.

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1 minute ago, JAG said:

So we'll just compare Brandon Lloyd casually to Mike Evans.

And ignore basic personel discussions with the head coach.

What doesn't hold water is that a team not coached by BA that played 8 years ago is being used as the backdrop to this team.  Why, just because the same QB?  He's not even the same QB (so to speak).

I'm not going to spend a top.. say 18 pick on either WR.  But if forced to choose one, I'll take Brandon Lloyd.

I already addressed that Lloyd isn’t Evans and why I made the comparison. You chose to address talent for some reason instead of the targets claim. Evans also isn’t a target hog WR. He only had a few seasons with a lot of targets when their second best WR was a grandpa Vincent Jackson and Humphries. 

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12 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Arians can say whatever he wants but that’s not how the NFL works. Last year 60% of all snaps came with 11 personnel on the field. Also last year the Bucs were 10th in percentage of snaps with 2 TEs on the field at 23%. This isn’t  going to become Philadelphia where Ertz and Goedert have to play every snap because Greg Ward is the only receiver healthy. 
Another thing we’re missing here is even if there’s 2 TEs on the field why can’t one of them line up out wide, Gronk and OJ line up split out a decent bit and if Godwin is best in the slot why not keep him there and make the defense waste a corner on OJ.

There will be favorable matchups, totally agree.  Brady is fantastic at moving guys around to exploit them.  We'll see that plenty on money plays.

Not sure how many times they'll do that up and down the field.

 

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On 4/23/2020 at 11:57 AM, BMcP said:

I could be, too, for sure.  I kind of see his target volume remaining where it was last year - just with many more accurate passes and in a more potent offense.

Call me crazy but didnt jamies make it a potent offense? Hed give up 3 TO a game and make it a shoot out every time

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32 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I already addressed that Lloyd isn’t Evans and why I made the comparison. You chose to address talent for some reason instead of the targets claim. Evans also isn’t a target hog WR. He only had a few seasons with a lot of targets when their second best WR was a grandpa Vincent Jackson and Humphries. 

1.  Evans is a bigger and better target.  That he would convert more of those passes was the intent of my rebuttal.  More catches lead to fewer dink and dunks to WW.

2. Godwin is not WW.  He is not a master of the 7 yard option route.  Not all targets are created equal.

3. Wasn't sure without looking (so I did), but the 2012 Pats TE duo missed a combined 11 games.  That had to have lead to more passes to those WRs.  Not going to compare, just looked and tried to remember that team.

4. If Brady throws 600 passes like Winston did, then I will be wrong to not pay for Godwin at his price.  Not a chance I'm willing to take.  I think TB12 throws for fewer than 35 a game.  Mostly because he won’t need to.

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While Brady isn't the risk taker Jameis was, you have to imagine the efficiency gets better with Brady.  Plus Godwin wasn't getting some insane level of volume last year anyway.  He got 119 targets, which was #17 in the league.  His target share, 22%, ranked #25 in the league.  He missed 2 games last season, so even if you extrapolate his targets to include those 2 extra games, he would rank #10 in the league in targets.  But then you would have to do the same for every other WR, which would bump him back down to 13/14 or so (not doing the exact math for every single WR).  

So could Godwin's targets remain in the 120-130 range? Absolutely.  To assume the Bucs will become a completely different offense and start using 12 personnel the majority of the time is foolish.  OJ Howard is overrated and Gronk will probably get a handful of redzone looks each game at most.  Plus we know Arians doesn't use his TEs.  

Last season the NFL average for 12 personnel was 20%.  The Bucs were at 23% so actually slightly above league average.  I don't see any way they jump higher than that.  PHI was the highest at 52%, and the next closest team was MIN at 34%.  So PHI is a crazy outlier, and actually brings the average up higher.  If you take out the outlier, the average for the league goes even lower.  That's today's NFL - 3 WR sets the majority of the time.  

I see no reason to knock down Chris Godwin.  Obviously this year you're paying a much higher price than last season, but the dude is an absolute stud who now has a competent QB.  Arians' offenses have been #3, #5 and #4 in the NFL in pass attempts each of his last 3 seasons as HC.  

You could argue Jameis' INTs led to more garbage time and made games shoot outs, but INTs also end drives.  With Brady you'll probably get less garbage time, but drives will be sustained a lot more and not ending suddenly due to INTs.  If Brady throws even 15 INTs (which seems high), that's 15 extra drives the TB offense is getting from last year.  Plus they still don't really have much of a running game.  

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Love the player, but like last year, when Godwin Evans and Howard were in the top 5-6 rounds, someone has to bust. My feeling is it's Godwin this year- went from an insane value last year to possibly priced at his peak or overvalued this year. People are discounting the fact that Brady had some mediocre performances last year, and the Bucs defense is actually good. The Bucs D will be even better this year if the turnovers come down.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

While Brady isn't the risk taker Jameis was, you have to imagine the efficiency gets better with Brady.  Plus Godwin wasn't getting some insane level of volume last year anyway.  He got 119 targets, which was #17 in the league.  His target share, 22%, ranked #25 in the league.  He missed 2 games last season, so even if you extrapolate his targets to include those 2 extra games, he would rank #10 in the league in targets.  But then you would have to do the same for every other WR, which would bump him back down to 13/14 or so (not doing the exact math for every single WR).  

So could Godwin's targets remain in the 120-130 range? Absolutely.  To assume the Bucs will become a completely different offense and start using 12 personnel the majority of the time is foolish.  OJ Howard is overrated and Gronk will probably get a handful of redzone looks each game at most.  Plus we know Arians doesn't use his TEs.  

Last season the NFL average for 12 personnel was 20%.  The Bucs were at 23% so actually slightly above league average.  I don't see any way they jump higher than that.  PHI was the highest at 52%, and the next closest team was MIN at 34%.  So PHI is a crazy outlier, and actually brings the average up higher.  If you take out the outlier, the average for the league goes even lower.  That's today's NFL - 3 WR sets the majority of the time.  

I see no reason to knock down Chris Godwin.  Obviously this year you're paying a much higher price than last season, but the dude is an absolute stud who now has a competent QB.  Arians' offenses have been #3, #5 and #4 in the NFL in pass attempts each of his last 3 seasons as HC.  

You could argue Jameis' INTs led to more garbage time and made games shoot outs, but INTs also end drives.  With Brady you'll probably get less garbage time, but drives will be sustained a lot more and not ending suddenly due to INTs.  If Brady throws even 15 INTs (which seems high), that's 15 extra drives the TB offense is getting from last year.  Plus they still don't really have much of a running game.  

I think people are taking the “12-personnel” a bit out of context: Arians always runs a 12 base.  It’s not new news.

I agree across the board here - why is it hard to understand that both Godwin and Evans would thrive in the 2020 scenario, albeit for different reasons?

Edited by BMcP
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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I think people are taking the “12-personnel” a bit out of context: Arians always runs a 12 base.  It’s not new news.

I agree across the board here - why is it hard to understand that both Godwin and Evans would thrive in the 2020 scenario, albeit for different reasons?

I don’t think that is the issue here.

It is not that they won't thrive, it is if they will be worth what you spend to get them vs others.  A middle to upper 2nd for Godwin vs a low 2 or high 3 for Evans.  I think Evans has the higher TD potential and more worth his range.

I personally don't believe Godwin gets the same stats and looks he got last year.  This in part is due to a higher snap % of 12 personel and more to do with Brady being less risky and more efficient.  I understand this is open to debate.  I've tried to explain my thought process.

I don't believe Gronk came out of retirement to just block or ride the pine.  Someone above mentioned snap % of 12 personel was in the neighborhood of 1/4 last year.  I think it gets above 1/3 this year.  I know it isn't trendy to use 12, but with this roster makeup, it lends itself to use it.

That knocks the slot % down and more importantly the production of Godwin as he feasted from inside.  I think that also helped his catch rate.  No Perriman on the outside also hurts the use of 11.

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2 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Love the player, but like last year, when Godwin Evans and Howard were in the top 5-6 rounds, someone has to bust. My feeling is it's Godwin this year- went from an insane value last year to possibly priced at his peak or overvalued this year. People are discounting the fact that Brady had some mediocre performances last year, and the Bucs defense is actually good. The Bucs D will be even better this year if the turnovers come down.

Except Howard got exposed as not very good last year. He busted. That's it

It's just Godwin and Evans now

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, JAG said:

I don’t think that is the issue here.

It is not that they won't thrive, it is if they will be worth what you spend to get them vs others.  A middle to upper 2nd for Godwin vs a low 2 or high 3 for Evans.  I think Evans has the higher TD potential and more worth his range.

I personally don't believe Godwin gets the same stats and looks he got last year.  This in part is due to a higher snap % of 12 personel and more to do with Brady being less risky and more efficient.  I understand this is open to debate.  I've tried to explain my thought process.

I don't believe Gronk came out of retirement to just block or ride the pine.  Someone above mentioned snap % of 12 personel was in the neighborhood of 1/4 last year.  I think it gets above 1/3 this year.  I know it isn't trendy to use 12, but with this roster makeup, it lends itself to use it.

That knocks the slot % down and more importantly the production of Godwin as he feasted from inside.  I think that also helped his catch rate.  No Perriman on the outside also hurts the use of 11.

But you also assume that Godwin: a) operates exclusively out of the slot; and b) that he can’t function well split out wide.  Those two guys aren’t coming off the field and can both produce given accurate targets.  It’s not as if Godwin can’t separate or still run inside routes while split out.

Edited by BMcP

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11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

But you also assume that Godwin: a) operates exclusively out of the slot; and b) that he can’t function well split out wide.  Those two guys aren’t coming off the field and can both produce given accurate targets.  It’s not as if Godwin can’t separate or still run inside routes while split out.

No, I haven't assumed either of the two.  In previous years before BA got there, Godwin operated outside and did pretty well for himself.  Now add in the amount of work he got from the slot and his looks increased by 1/3, catch % increased as well as TDs.

I think without seeing as many reps from inside all those drop down.  How much they drop depends on several factors I can't begin to project.  I stick to what I believe in that simple examination of more slot = more production.  So reverse should be the opposite.  He is being drafted based on last year's stats and the possibility of more.  I'm not buying that.

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13 minutes ago, JAG said:

No, I haven't assumed either of the two.  In previous years before BA got there, Godwin operated outside and did pretty well for himself.  Now add in the amount of work he got from the slot and his looks increased by 1/3, catch % increased as well as TDs.

I think without seeing as many reps from inside all those drop down.  How much they drop depends on several factors I can't begin to project.  I stick to what I believe in that simple examination of more slot = more production.  So reverse should be the opposite.  He is being drafted based on last year's stats and the possibility of more.  I'm not buying that.

Ok, thanks for clarifying.  Not sure to what extent the looks increased due to formation or just development and familiarity with the offense, but it’s fair to speculate.  I think it’s also fair to factor in the TB effect on the offense and wonder whether a sure-handed Godwin will decline that much.  He might be a bit more expensive than I’d like, but I’d certainly be buying if I needed a wideout at that point.

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