paulwall29

Chris Godwin 2020 Outlook

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20 hours ago, JAG said:

No, I haven't assumed either of the two.  In previous years before BA got there, Godwin operated outside and did pretty well for himself.  Now add in the amount of work he got from the slot and his looks increased by 1/3, catch % increased as well as TDs.

I think without seeing as many reps from inside all those drop down.  How much they drop depends on several factors I can't begin to project.  I stick to what I believe in that simple examination of more slot = more production.  So reverse should be the opposite.  He is being drafted based on last year's stats and the possibility of more.  I'm not buying that.

I'd agree with that if it was the only change from last year.  But he also has a new and more accurate QB. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I'd agree with that if it was the only change from last year.  But he also has a new and more accurate QB. 

 

 

That doesn't take as many chances.  These are the things I can't put into numbers.

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9 hours ago, JAG said:

That doesn't take as many chances.  These are the things I can't put into numbers.

He doesn't, but that hurts Evans more IMO

Godwin gets separation consistently

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1 hour ago, mocha4313 said:

He doesn't, but that hurts Evans more IMO

Godwin gets separation consistently

I just compared the two on playerprofiler.com. If he runs some routes from the slot, he'll get more separation.  If he runs from outside, there is a very small difference, likely negated by Evan's longer reach.

2018 stats when both were working outside, Godwin got on average 4.5" more separation per route than Evans (1.4 yards vs 1.28).  

If he works more in the slot like he did in 2019, Godwin gained another 3" of separation.  To get an idea of just how the slot skews that number, see Adam Humphries of 2018; 1.65 yards or 6" more than Godwin's 2019.

Based on that site's data they separate practically the same.  If you see it differently enough as that will separate the two, then go for Godwin.  Neither are likely to disappoint.

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Good discussion on the slot. Clearly important.

The main thing that attracted me to Godwin last year was that he was filling the Larry Fitzgerald role in Bruce Arians offense and that was a big factor in his production last year. We’ll see in preseason 🤞 but I don’t think Arians upends his offense just to accommodate Brady. If the offense remains the same I’m loving Godwin at his current 2nd round ADP

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

Good discussion on the slot. Clearly important.

The main thing that attracted me to Godwin last year was that he was filling the Larry Fitzgerald role in Bruce Arians offense and that was a big factor in his production last year. We’ll see in preseason 🤞 but I don’t think Arians upends his offense just to accommodate Brady. If the offense remains the same I’m loving Godwin at his current 2nd round ADP

He will play from the slot plenty - he’s their movement receiver and will shift all over the formation to take advantage of choice matchups.  As long as he’s running most of his routes inside the numbers, who cares, really?  To any extent the spectre of “12 personnel” reduces his cost, I’m all for it.

Edited by BMcP

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On 7/11/2020 at 10:58 AM, BMcP said:

He will play from the slot plenty - he’s their movement receiver and will shift all over the formation to take advantage of choice matchups.  As long as he’s running most of his routes inside the numbers, who cares, really?  To any extent the spectre of “12 personnel” reduces his cost, I’m all for it.

Exactly.  They were giving the stat on a podcast (FF I think) about the % of how many times teams line up in 12 man.  I can't remember the exact number but the team that historically runs it the most in any given season runs it about 50% of the time.   So Godwin will get plenty of slot work as well as some quality "outside" work with a more accurate passer. 

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On 7/13/2020 at 6:29 PM, K197040 said:

Exactly.  They were giving the stat on a podcast (FF I think) about the % of how many times teams line up in 12 man.  I can't remember the exact number but the team that historically runs it the most in any given season runs it about 50% of the time.   So Godwin will get plenty of slot work as well as some quality "outside" work with a more accurate passer. 

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

Philly ran 12 personnel 52% of the plays last year - not weird if your 2 best receivers are Ertz and Goedert. Average was 20% in 2019, TB was around that number so nothing special.

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is the unknown baked into his top 15 ppr adp? feels silly to think that gronk/oj are going to hinder godwins target share or atleast brady is going to make up that difference being a better qb than winston.

 

hill going well ahead of godwin and about 10-15$ more expensive yet godwin last year was =/better than hill 2018 when mahomes went off (godwin 16 game pace 2019- 98 rec, 1523 yds 10 tds)

understand the appeal of mahomes lead offense but that gap between hill and godwin doesnt make sense to me. or am i putting too much value on last years stats for godwin?

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

is the unknown baked into his top 15 ppr adp? feels silly to think that gronk/oj are going to hinder godwins target share or atleast brady is going to make up that difference being a better qb than winston.

 

hill going well ahead of godwin and about 10-15$ more expensive yet godwin last year was =/better than hill 2018 when mahomes went off (godwin 16 game pace 2019- 98 rec, 1523 yds 10 tds)

understand the appeal of mahomes lead offense but that gap between hill and godwin doesnt make sense to me. or am i putting too much value on last years stats for godwin?

Was about as high as anyone on godwin but I am cooling on him a bit.

1. Hamstring injuries have the highest reoccurence rate and now with limited training camp who knows.

2. Gronk doesnt help especially in the redzone.

3. Lots of mouths to feed will it be him or Evans who TB prefers. I think people forget that evans is a top 8 talent and with his physical abilities better than godwin in some aspects.

4. New qb wont cause as many int and take chances. Less shoot out and probably less targer, which means less opportunities.

Too many variables to pick him over tyreek, julio, mt, hopkins (not a huge fan either). 

 

The good news is his stock is dropping and ive seen him go around the 24/25 turn.

Edited by nmartinez12443
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14 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Was about as high as anyone on godwin but I am cooling on him a bit.

1. Hamstring injuries have the highest reoccurence rate and now with limited training camp who knows.

2. Gronk doesnt help especially in the redzone.

3. Lots of mouths to feed will it be him or Evans who TB prefers. I think people forget that evans is a top 8 talent and with his physical abilities better than godwin in some aspects.

4. New qb wont cause as many int and take chances. Less shoot out and probably less targer, which means less opportunities.

Too many variables to pick him over tyreek, julio, mt, hopkins (not a huge fan either). 

 

The good news is his stock is dropping and ive seen him go around the 24/25 turn.

brady did throw it 613 times last year with elite def vs winston 626.

unless you are expecting huge games from the rb spot in airens off. then i dont know if that number of pass attempts will be all that different.

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Godwin is going to regress this year. His adp is a little to high for my liking. There are way too many mouths to feed on this offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see an extremely balanced offense this year. The defense is pretty decent to keep them in games. Unless Godwin is in the 3rd (highly unlikely) he is a DND for me. I sold him in one of my keeper leagues, because wr is so deep this year for a rb (Drake).

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54 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

brady did throw it 613 times last year with elite def vs winston 626.

unless you are expecting huge games from the rb spot in airens off. then i dont know if that number of pass attempts will be all that different.

Yeah and in that division with atl and new orleans I can agree with you. But with so many changes new qb in brady, gronk, only did it one year, corona, hamstring injury, etc.

Its a risk for me especially when you have much safer guys target wise and stability wise like julio, hopkins, tyreek, and in some extent thelien.I mitigate risks with my top 3 picks whenever I can. 

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I also think that Godwin will regress this year and that Brady's play will also sharply decline in his age 43 season.  Godwin should still have a top 10-15 PPR season as long as Brady stays healthy as Brady tends to prefer throwing to his slot receiver but I wouldn't touch him at his average draft position right now.

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3 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

1. Hamstring injuries have the highest reoccurence rate and now with limited training camp who knows.

Fair but I really don’t think any player in the NFL is ever truly healthy. He’s had one injury in 3 years in the league, I’m not downgrading him for this though.

2. Gronk doesnt help especially in the redzone.

Probably should dig into this a bit more than just looking at it on the surface. Is Gronk big and scary yeah but the last time he played he had 3 TDs in 13 games and only one of them came in the redzone. And that was before he took a year off, could he rebound yeah but to me Gronk/OJ/Brate isn’t more of a detriment to Evans/Godwins fantasy success than OJ/Brate from last year

3. Lots of mouths to feed will it be him or Evans who TB prefers. I think people forget that evans is a top 8 talent and with his physical abilities better than godwin in some aspects.

Last time TB’s top WR lined up exclusively out wide was 2007, that’s enough of a sample size to this isn’t a random occurrence.

 

4. New qb wont cause as many int and take chances. Less shoot out and probably less targer, which means less opportunities.

Thats fair but the hope is better quality to replace quantity, but BA’s offenses are always pass heavy so who knows

 

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1 hour ago, Ddam2013 said:

 

In respect to number 3, yeah sure welker and edelman were the top dudes, but that was all brady had besides gronk. I think with evans he is too talented to not get involved. Now throw in 3 very talented TEs and he uses his rbs a lot. Not taking the chance with my 2nd pick.

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5 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Godwin is going to regress this year. His adp is a little to high for my liking. There are way too many mouths to feed on this offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see an extremely balanced offense this year. The defense is pretty decent to keep them in games. Unless Godwin is in the 3rd (highly unlikely) he is a DND for me. I sold him in one of my keeper leagues, because wr is so deep this year for a rb (Drake).

There’s only really two mouths to feed.

All the other mouths are way overrated. 

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6 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I also think that Godwin will regress this year and that Brady's play will also sharply decline in his age 43 season.  Godwin should still have a top 10-15 PPR season as long as Brady stays healthy as Brady tends to prefer throwing to his slot receiver but I wouldn't touch him at his average draft position right now.

Same here. I shipped Godwin in a dynasty league for Ridley and a future first. Deal was too good to pass up. 
 

Im not on any piece of the TB offense this year. Only player I’ll throw a dart at a couple times is RoJo, but only at a cheap price. 

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According to bestball10’s ADP for this month the players going around Godwin are:

18: Jackson

19: Mahomes

20: Chubb

21: Godwin

22: Jones

23: Ekeler

24: Jacobs

25: Golladay

26: Evans 

27: Robinson

Now I am a huge Godwin fan and I have him in all my dynasty/keeper leagues but in redraft I’m going to have to pass if these are the players available around him. No way, I’ll take a QB that high but I would rank the RB/WRs as  Chubb>Jones>Jacobs>Godwin>Golladay>Ekeler=Evans>Robinson.

Seems to be better value at RB in this range so I may not have him in redraft leagues drafting soon this season.

 

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4 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Flash in a pan, evans is the wr to have

 

How so? You trust a 43yr old arm to make the downfield throws with regularity? I tend to lean more towards Godwin in the slot, considering Brady likes the short game and has loved his slot WRs. If I had to choose between Godwin and Evans, I'd take Godwin, especially in half PPR and PPR leagues. 

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8 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

How so? You trust a 43yr old arm to make the downfield throws with regularity? I tend to lean more towards Godwin in the slot, considering Brady likes the short game and has loved his slot WRs. If I had to choose between Godwin and Evans, I'd take Godwin, especially in half PPR and PPR leagues. 

 

While I don't think Brady will match Winston's numbers from last year, people are acting like he's going to run the same offense NE did last year with Edelman, White, and Dorsett as his top guys.

This offense should still be really productive with elite receiving weapons and an aggressive HC.  I doubt Brady went to TB so he could run the same ball control offense - seems more likely that he wanted to play somewhere with a more aggressive and pass friendly scheme.

Also think you're underestimating how good of a player Evans is.  He's going to get a lot of targets in what should be a productive offense.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

While I don't think Brady will match Winston's numbers from last year, people are acting like he's going to run the same offense NE did last year with Edelman, White, and Dorsett as his top guys.

This offense should still be really productive with elite receiving weapons and an aggressive HC.  I doubt Brady went to TB so he could run the same ball control offense - seems more likely that he wanted to play somewhere with a more aggressive and pass friendly scheme.

Also think you're underestimating how good of a player Evans is.  He's going to get a lot of targets in what should be a productive offense.

The question isn't whether Evans is good because he's one of the more talented wr's, it's whether 43 year old Brady still has the arm strength to get him the ball consistently downfield.  I would also rather have Godwin of the 2 TB wr's especially in PPR because as stated, Brady at this stage of his career tends to prefer shorter passes to running backs, tight ends and slot receivers.

Edited by sjm76
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4 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

The question isn't whether Evans is good because he's one of the more talented wr's, it's whether 43 year old Brady still has the arm strength to get him the ball consistently downfield.  I would also rather have Godwin of the 2 TB wr's especially in PPR because as stated, Brady at this stage of his career tends to prefer shorter passes to running backs, tight ends and slot receivers.

I think people are making assumptions about Brady based on his last few years in NE with awful weapons around him.

Is his arm as strong as strong as Winston's? No, but that doesn't mean he's not going to throw it down the field.  If you were Brady with Julian Edelman in the slot and Phillip Dorsett on the outside where would you go with the ball? 

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